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Trade Ideas/Rumors/Proposals Thread

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14 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

He spent his entire time in the WBC sitting next to him in the dugout...also joking around with veteran OF Kondoh, Ohtani even helped him with swing mechanics advice.

If anyone was out of that veteran loop, it was probably Okamoto ... and the younger emerging star Sato who'd replaced Kondoh as a starter as the WBC wore on.

Breaking: Murakami's Disgraceful Act! Ohtani Refuses Apology as Ibata Confirms Quarterfinal Removal!

Probably click bait, but I remember it.

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Diving a bit deeper into this bullpen from a trade deadline perspective. The Sox currently have three of the top 15 relievers in the American League in terms of both FIP & fWAR. Obviously the problem this year has been what happens when you have to pitch anyone but Taylor, Hudson, & Newcomb.

On that front, we have seen two guys step up as of late. Since Jun 1st, Chris Murphy has pitched 11.2 innings for us and has put up a 0.77 ERA & 1.82 FIP with a 9.26 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, & 0 HRs. He’s been one of the better relievers in the game during this stretch and gives us a third LH reliever we can rely on.

Then you have Jordan Hicks, who looks like a new man since coming back from his injury. It’s a very SSS, but in 4.1 innings he’s put up a 0.00 ERA & 0.11 FIP with a ridiculous 16.62 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, & 0 HRs. While I’m no pitching expert, one thing stood during this stretch: he’s starting to leverage his 4 seamer more (~4% to ~25%) at the expense of his sinker (~60% to ~32%). This along with a small increase in his sweeper usage has allowed him to generate significantly more whiffs & K’s.

If these two guys can continue pitching, not even to this degree obviously, the bullpen is much strengthened. You’d still have the Dominguez situation to deal with, but having five strong relievers ahead of him would allow you to use him exclusively in low & medium leverage situations and hope he can get his control back to what it was between 2022 to 2024 (mid to high 3 BB’s per 9).

That would leave two spots to potentially address. I remain confident Wikelman Gonzalez is going to be part of the 2H bullpen mix. He was dealing before he went down with his lat injury and has the type of stuff to be successful in the majors. With a well known roster crunch coming, already being on the 40 man will give Gonzalez an advantage over other AAA arms like Iriarte & Pallette.

None of this addresses the closer spot if you want to continue to use Taylor in your highest leverage situations regardless if it’s actually the 9th. An outside addition would obviously be ideal here as it would allow everyone else to slot into a spot where they can excel. However, if prices are too steep and we can’t afford both a quality SP and closer, then I think you have to prioritize the SP. In that event, could the Sox pull a 2005 White Sox and go with a rookie as their closer? Both McDougal & Sandlin seem like guys who have the stuff to do well in that role, but would take them away from building up strength as SPs. Not sure which way I’d go there, but certainty something Getz must consider.

Tweet I saw on Hicks’ 4 seamer, which is pretty insane:

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Tweet I saw on Hicks’ 4 seamer, which is pretty insane:

The name and list of pitches on this list doesn't give me a lot of confidence in whatever this metric is.

50 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The name and list of pitches on this list doesn't give me a lot of confidence in whatever this metric is.

lol…the hate is strong in this one. You don’t even know what the metric is intended to do, but challenge its integrity anyways. Here is some background if you are interested.

proPitching+:

Definition: The descriptive grade. proPitching+ takes proStuff+ and layers in plate location, release angles, release-angle changes, count, outs, and times through the order. It asks, for every pitch: will the hitter swing, what happens if he does, and what happens if he does not. Every outcome is weighted by its true run value in the count it occurred in.

Architecture: Eight LightGBM models. Stage 1 (P(swing)) for fastballs and non-fastballs. Stage 2 (whiff / foul / in_play given swing) for fastballs and non-fastballs. Stage 2T (called-strike / ball / HBP given take) for fastballs and non-fastballs. Two HR binary models for the in-play tail. Every run-value weight is keyed by the exact (balls, strikes, outs) bucket, so a whiff in a 3-2 count and a whiff in a 0-0 count carry different value.

Composition: pitching_xRV = P(swing) * swing_xRV + P(take) * take_xRV. The swing and take expected values combine their head probabilities with per-count empirical run values built from the 2022 to 2023 training data.

Inputs: 23 features for fastballs, 27 for non-fastballs. All proStuff+ inputs plus plate location (x and z), vertical and horizontal release angles, release-angle change from the previous pitch, balls, strikes, outs, times through the order, and times the hitter has seen that pitch type. Non-fastballs carry the same primary-fastball differentials as proStuff+ does.

Scaling: 100 = average, +10 = one standard deviation at the pitch level.

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

lol…the hate is strong in this one. You don’t even know what the metric is intended to do, but challenge its integrity anyways. Here is some background if you are interested.

Yes, im skeptical of any pitch rating that has Javier Assad sweeper in the top tier. Correct. Along with bum Funderburk and Sandlin sheesh

Im one of the few here who still is a sucker for Hicks skills.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

20 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes, im skeptical of any pitch rating that has Javier Assad sweeper in the top tier. Correct. Along with bum Funderburk and Sandlin sheesh

Im one of the few here who still is a sucker for Hicks skills.

This is looking at a single pitch with situational & other contextual factors at play. It’s not looking strictly at pure stuff, although it’s a component of the metric.

  • Author
2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Diving a bit deeper into this bullpen from a trade deadline perspective. The Sox currently have three of the top 15 relievers in the American League in terms of both FIP & fWAR. Obviously the problem this year has been what happens when you have to pitch anyone but Taylor, Hudson, & Newcomb.

On that front, we have seen two guys step up as of late. Since Jun 1st, Chris Murphy has pitched 11.2 innings for us and has put up a 0.77 ERA & 1.82 FIP with a 9.26 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, & 0 HRs. He’s been one of the better relievers in the game during this stretch and gives us a third LH reliever we can rely on.

Then you have Jordan Hicks, who looks like a new man since coming back from his injury. It’s a very SSS, but in 4.1 innings he’s put up a 0.00 ERA & 0.11 FIP with a ridiculous 16.62 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, & 0 HRs. While I’m no pitching expert, one thing stood during this stretch: he’s starting to leverage his 4 seamer more (~4% to ~25%) at the expense of his sinker (~60% to ~32%). This along with a small increase in his sweeper usage has allowed him to generate significantly more whiffs & K’s.

If these two guys can continue pitching, not even to this degree obviously, the bullpen is much strengthened. You’d still have the Dominguez situation to deal with, but having five strong relievers ahead of him would allow you to use him exclusively in low & medium leverage situations and hope he can get his control back to what it was between 2022 to 2024 (mid to high 3 BB’s per 9).

That would leave two spots to potentially address. I remain confident Wikelman Gonzalez is going to be part of the 2H bullpen mix. He was dealing before he went down with his lat injury and has the type of stuff to be successful in the majors. With a well known roster crunch coming, already being on the 40 man will give Gonzalez an advantage over other AAA arms like Iriarte & Pallette.

None of this addresses the closer spot if you want to continue to use Taylor in your highest leverage situations regardless if it’s actually the 9th. An outside addition would obviously be ideal here as it would allow everyone else to slot into a spot where they can excel. However, if prices are too steep and we can’t afford both a quality SP and closer, then I think you have to prioritize the SP. In that event, could the Sox pull a 2005 White Sox and go with a rookie as their closer? Both McDougal & Sandlin seem like guys who have the stuff to do well in that role, but would take them away from building up strength as SPs. Not sure which way I’d go there, but certainty something Getz must consider.

Good assessment here. Based on Murphy’s emergence and even Eisert being serviceable at times, I think it’s clear that a right handed leverage reliever is the biggest bullpen need. I don’t trust any other right hander in this unit besides Taylor.

If they want to circle back to Boston, a Sonny Gray + Garrett Whitlock package makes a ton of sense.

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is looking at a single pitch with situational & other contextual factors at play. It’s not looking strictly at pure stuff, although it’s a component of the metric.

That's a collection of some of the worst pitchers in baseball with a couple good arms mixed in there. It's a pointless metric. And, again, I still like Hicks.

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