November 3, 200421 yr FWIW Kerry is just winning in Nevada by 2,000 votes after 41% counted. That was meant to be a sure Republican state.
November 3, 200421 yr Damn Kerry has every state but Ohio and New Mexico. If he comes back to take Ohio... :puke
November 3, 200421 yr Damn Kerry has every state but Ohio and New Mexico. If he comes back to take Ohio... :puke It'll be a miracle if Kerry makes up 100,000 votes with 8% left in Ohio.
November 3, 200421 yr It'll be a miracle if Kerry makes up 100,000 votes with 8% left in Ohio. Yes... but aren't there a lot of mail in ballots or whatever in Ohio. Or am I hollusinating? God damn I'm tired.
November 3, 200421 yr Yes... but aren't there a lot of mail in ballots or whatever in Ohio. Or am I hollusinating? God damn I'm tired. ok...Maybe these Ohio Election Judges are purposely making us all fall asleep so they can announce the winner without without getting some attention. If they don't announce a winner by 1.30 am chicago time, I will go to bed.
November 3, 200421 yr If the Dems get 50-50 out of absentee ballots, they're damn lucky. If they have to hang their hat on that, they're screwed. I have to think (especially after seeing Virginia and the Carolinas) that the networks are really being quite careful with projections this year. Ohio would really take some divine inspiration. It's over, go to sleep and get the worst nightmares out of the way -- Bush holds on.
November 3, 200421 yr On NBC, they're interviewing some dude at the banquet hall where the Republicans are getting ready to celebrate at & there's some Garth Brooks or some such blasting in the background. That's comedy. Redneck noise, man. I need to get me some Motown...ya dig?
November 3, 200421 yr The Ohio result was predicted to be decided in an hour, but now it's going to take a couple more. There's 250,000 votes left to count, so Kerry would need to get at least 175,000 to win.
November 3, 200421 yr I should put a small caveat on something I said earlier -- if the conditional ballots are VERY strongly Dem, and if Kerry does surprisingly well in the yet uncounted vote, then I guess he has some small chance. The models don't really capture these "conditional votes", after all. But I still think the odds of any change are puny.
November 3, 200421 yr Yay! ANOTHER election night clusterf***! Wooo! Someone shoot me or point me in the direction of someone who's ass I can kick for this.
November 3, 200421 yr Yay! ANOTHER election night clusterf***! Wooo! Someone shoot me or point me in the direction of someone who's ass I can kick for this. Try this guy, he's been involved in both of them
November 3, 200421 yr I should put a small caveat on something I said earlier -- if the conditional ballots are VERY strongly Dem, and if Kerry does surprisingly well in the yet uncounted vote, then I guess he has some small chance. The models don't really capture these "conditional votes", after all. But I still think the odds of any change are puny. read somewhere else that the last time that provisional ballots had to be used was in IL some years ago. 11% of the provisional ballots were considered valid and counted. In other words, it's over. If Kerry drags this out past tomorrow he will disgrace his party.
November 3, 200421 yr On several swing states, and EVERY STATE that has E-Voting but no paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when comparing exit polls to actual results. In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their E-Voting, the exit poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of error. So we have MATCHING RESULTS for exit polls vs. voting with audits vs. A 5% unexplained advantage for Bush without audits. A very strange anomaly indeed. Anomaly my ass.
November 3, 200421 yr On several swing states, and EVERY STATE that has E-Voting but no paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when comparing exit polls to actual results. In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their E-Voting, the exit poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of error. So we have MATCHING RESULTS for exit polls vs. voting with audits vs. A 5% unexplained advantage for Bush without audits. A very strange anomaly indeed. Anomaly my ass. I saw on Fox News they had a Democrat Attorney outside one of the counties in Ohio that the Democrats were expected to win easily but that was not the case.
November 3, 200421 yr On several swing states, and EVERY STATE that has E-Voting but no paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when comparing exit polls to actual results. In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their E-Voting, the exit poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of error. So we have MATCHING RESULTS for exit polls vs. voting with audits vs. A 5% unexplained advantage for Bush without audits. A very strange anomaly indeed. Anomaly my ass. Of course here's APU with the conspiracy theories. That took longer than I thought it would. Why can't you just admit it when your side loses?
November 3, 200421 yr Assuming there are 250K absentee/provisional ballots out there Kerry would have to win about 80% of them to make up the difference. It's over.
November 3, 200421 yr 4 More Years Baby Now gotta get myself back to watching the news. My prediction: Iowa, Ohio, Nevada and New Mexico all go for Bush.
November 3, 200421 yr 4 More Years Baby Now gotta get myself back to watching the news. My prediction: Iowa, Ohio, Nevada and New Mexico all go for Bush. Nevada has already been called for Bush, Iowa should follow soon and Wisconsin looks like its going Kerry's way. In Ohio Bush leads by over 145,000 votes. That means Kerry would have to win 80 something % of the provisional/absentee votes to take the state. Not happening.
November 3, 200421 yr You know what? f*** this. If it is going to be decided by 2 am for Ohio then I’m going to sleep. Bush has won so good night. I thought we were staying up until this thing was known for sure....
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