Texsox Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 So we are going to have more baserunners? obp last season: Lee .366 vs. Pods .343 Maggs .351 vs. Dye .334 Burke .386 vs. AJ .319 Jose .287 vs. Iguchi? So why will we all of a sudden have more baserunners? I must be missing something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 We'll have more baserunners at the top of the order I'd say, Podsednik and Iguchi will be an upgrade over Harris and Uribe in that regard. And they'll actually be able to steal some bases too. You can subtract Maggs' OBP since he's moving teams to a pitcher's parks, and upgrade Dye's a little, while Burke didn't hit everyday, and A.J's OBP will definitely increase moving from SBC Park. There was a stat from HardballTimes IIRC, that the Sox had the best % of bringing in a RISP, but they had the worst percentage of getting that runner into scoring position, or something like that (someone may want to clear that up). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YASNY Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 09:39 AM) So we are going to have more baserunners? obp last season: Lee .366 vs. Pods .343 Maggs .351 vs. Dye .334 Burke .386 vs. AJ .319 Jose .287 vs. Iguchi? So why will we all of a sudden have more baserunners? I must be missing something. Compare our combined starting RF to Dye, not just Magglio. Compare our combined starting C to AJ, not just Burke. Then you might have a more accurate snapshot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 QUOTE(YASNY @ Feb 9, 2005 -> 02:50 AM) Compare our combined starting RF to Dye, not just Magglio. Compare our combined starting C to AJ, not just Burke. Then you might have a more accurate snapshot. Borchard and Valentin definitely had sub .300 OBP's, and IIRC Crede might of had too. The Sox shouldn't have 1 player in their lineup this season who will have a sub .300 OBP, otherwise he won't be playing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted February 8, 2005 Author Share Posted February 8, 2005 Willie .343 Uribe .327 One or the other will be playing almost everyday, so that seems a wash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 9, 2005 -> 02:53 AM) Willie .343 Uribe .327 One or the other will be playing almost everyday, so that seems a wash. The difference for Harris is that even if he got on base, he didn't get into scoring position enough because he couldn't steal enough bases, Iguchi and Podsednik should help solve that problem this season. Plus Harris was woefully inconsistent from day to day. Uribe will be interesting to watch, hopefully he doesn't have a second year slump from hitting at the Cell, but I think he's good enough to keep producing if he keeps hitting the ball to all areas of the ballpark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted February 8, 2005 Author Share Posted February 8, 2005 QUOTE(YASNY @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 09:50 AM) Compare our combined starting RF to Dye, not just Magglio. Compare our combined starting C to AJ, not just Burke. Then you might have a more accurate snapshot. Good point. Davis was .257 and Borchard was also under .300 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 09:39 AM) So we are going to have more baserunners? obp last season: Lee .366 vs. Pods .343 Maggs .351 vs. Dye .334 Burke .386 vs. AJ .319 Jose .287 vs. Iguchi? So why will we all of a sudden have more baserunners? I must be missing something. This analysis on determining the amount of baserunners in 2005 is wrong on several levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 QUOTE(Texsox @ Feb 9, 2005 -> 02:57 AM) Good point. Davis was .257 and Borchard was also under .300 I know Maggs and Lee's production can't be replaced, but like I said in another thread last night, this lineup is now deeper and there shouldn't be any major holes in it. That's how the Twinkies won this division over the past few seasons (besides their great pitching). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greasywheels121 Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 10:59 AM) I know Maggs and Lee's production can't be replaced, but like I said in another thread last night, this lineup is now deeper and there shouldn't be any major holes in it. That's how the Twinkies won this division over the past few seasons (besides their great pitching). Exactly. I still have trouble seeing how we'll miss Maggs though. The offense never changed with the absence of Maggs last year. We still had our 40 run night, followed by a 2-0 shutout even w/out Maggs. So I'm happy to see the deeper lineup minus Maggs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upnorthsox Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 Sox OBP and Runs by position 2004: C - .316 - 74 1B - .368 - 89 2B - .324 - 102 3B - .296 - 77 SS - .303 - 98 LF - .358 - 104 CF - .345 - 111 RF - .315 - 84 DH - .367 - 93 Total runs 832 Projected 2005 starters and their 2004 OBP and Runs C- AJ - .319 - 45 / Davis - .256 - 22 1B - Konerko - .359 - 84 2B - Iguchi - ? - ? 3B - Crede - .299 - 67 SS - Uribe - .327 - 82 LF - SPod - .313 - 85 CF - ARow - .361 - 94 RF - Dye - .329 - 87 DH - Carl - .319 - 29 / Frank - .434 - 53 Total runs 648 Given 3-5 runs for guys on off days minus C and DH which are already over AB's for a full season that's another 21-35 runs or 669 -683 runs. So for the Sox to equal last yrs runs Iguchi would need to score 149 -163 runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mmmmmbeeer Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 QUOTE(upnorthsox @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 04:54 PM) Sox OBP and Runs by position 2004: C - .316 - 74 1B - .368 - 89 2B - .324 - 102 3B - .296 - 77 SS - .303 - 98 LF - .358 - 104 CF - .345 - 111 RF - .315 - 84 DH - .367 - 93 Total runs 832 Projected 2005 starters and their 2004 OBP and Runs C- AJ - .319 - 45 / Davis - .256 - 22 1B - Konerko - .359 - 84 2B - Iguchi - ? - ? 3B - Crede - .299 - 67 SS - Uribe - .327 - 82 LF - SPod - .313 - 85 CF - ARow - .361 - 94 RF - Dye - .329 - 87 DH - Carl - .319 - 29 / Frank - .434 - 53 Total runs 648 Given 3-5 runs for guys on off days minus C and DH which are already over AB's for a full season that's another 21-35 runs or 669 -683 runs. So for the Sox to equal last yrs runs Iguchi would need to score 149 -163 runs. I will eat my shoe if Pods doesn't score atleast 100 runs this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YASNY Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 (edited) We got more runs out of 3B last year than we'll get from Crede this year. We got more runs out of CF last year than we'll get from Rowand this year. We got more runs out of SS last year than we'll get from Uribe this year. We got more runs out of C last year than we'll get from AJ/Davis this year. There is something about these projections that just don't add up. Valentin was horrid last year, yet we are going to have drop off at SS? I don't think so. The catcher position is going to be less productive with AJ as our main starter over the Olivo-Alomar-Burke-Davis combo of '04? Not. Lies, Damn lies and statistics. Edited February 8, 2005 by YASNY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilJester99 Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 QUOTE(mmmmmbeeer @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 11:04 AM) I will eat my shoe if Pods doesn't score atleast 100 runs this season. That doesn't sound like much of a threat compared to the "True Fan" in SLaP Thread...sheesh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Critic Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 We're getting to that punchy, over-analytical point now. Thank goodness that pitchers & catchers report in 8 days. I'd much rather have something to discuss that has actually happened, rather than speculation and guesswork. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFanForever Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 QUOTE(The Critic @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 05:50 PM) We're getting to that punchy, over-analytical point now. Thank goodness that pitchers & catchers report in 8 days. I'd much rather have something to discuss that has actually happened, rather than speculation and guesswork. Completely agree. This is getting scary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greasywheels121 Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 QUOTE(The Critic @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 12:50 PM) We're getting to that punchy, over-analytical point now. Thank goodness that pitchers & catchers report in 8 days. I'd much rather have something to discuss that has actually happened, rather than speculation and guesswork. 8 days, 1 hour 6 minutes and counting.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted February 9, 2005 Share Posted February 9, 2005 This is so damn typical of the naysayers on this board. Do you bother to look at WHERE they produced those numbers? http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/ml...5392&statType=1 Take a look at his triples, & fly outs near the wall. Those are HR's at the Cell. Using Pods 04 #'s to project his 05 is a complete joke. At least use his career average. Every fantasy site is selling the guy to have a big year. Likewise seasoned Sox fans should know the importance of where a guy hits in the lineup. Balance means more than you care to admit. Pods, Iggy, Dye: All can score from 1st with a long single or short double. Koney/Thomas, Everett/Koney: You best power in the lineup. Rowand, Uribe: Both can score from 1st with a long single or short double. AJ, Crede: Your 2nd best power duo in the lineup. I can't recall any time in the past 4 yrs where the Sox had that kind of balance in their lineup. Likewise I have no idea what in the hell you are doing to come up with a total of 678. That's utterly ridiculous. If you're going to do a R, RBI assessment then have the decency to simply replace 04 numbers for players. I already did that. The Sox will lose 20-25 R, & 20-25 RBI. That's just strictly taking either 04 or career avg of the new players & swapping them for the old. I did that conservatively by taking whichever was lower (career avg, 04). I'm much more interested in the projected 70+ R, RBI will save with the changes in the pitching staff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted February 9, 2005 Share Posted February 9, 2005 04 SOX: (865r, 823rbi) vs (831r, 782er, 799rbi, 50uer) -Sox deletions: Maggs, Lee, Val, Harris. - Sox additions: Dye, Pods, AJP, Iggy -Maggs 93R, 108rbi (590 ab proj) + Dye 96r, 88rbi (590 ab proj) : +3r, -20 rbi -CLee 103R, 99rbi + Pods 85R, 39rbi : -18r, -60rbi -JVal 73R, 70rbi + AJP 45R, 77rbi : -28r, +7rbi - Harris (68, 27) + Iguchi : (90, 82) : +22r, +55rbi 05 Total: -21r, -18rbi (844r, 805rbi) -Sox deletions: ELO, Schow, MJ, Cotts - Sox additions: JC, ELD, Vizc, Herm -ELO 124r, 112rbi + JC 114r. 99rbi : -10r, -13rbi -Scho 74r, 67rbi + ELD 41r, 36rbi (proj out to 20 st) : -33r, -31rbi -MJ 43r, 60rbi (out to 72ip) + Vizc 35r, 41rbi : -8r, -19rbi -Cotts 90r, 80rbi (out to 131ip) + Herm 71r, 62rbi : -19r, -18rbi 05 Total: -43r, -73rbi (822r,750rbi) The season can't get here any faster! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUGGERNAUT Posted February 9, 2005 Share Posted February 9, 2005 Then again, we might have higher expectations of Iggy than most. cbssportsline.com as this lineup in their depth charts. 1. Scott Podsednik LF 2. Aaron Rowand CF 3. Paul Konerko 1B 4. Jermaine Dye RF 5. Carl Everett DH 6. Juan Uribe SS 7. A.J. Pierznynski C 8. Joe Crede 3B 9. Tadahito Iguchi 2B Prove them ALL wrong Iggy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwerty Posted February 9, 2005 Share Posted February 9, 2005 QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 9, 2005 -> 10:51 AM) Dye: All can score from 1st with a long single or short double. AJ, Crede: Your 2nd best power duo in the lineup. Is dye suddenly running like he was with the royals? Pierz and crede our best power duo? Wtf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWSGuy406 Posted February 9, 2005 Share Posted February 9, 2005 QUOTE(YASNY @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 05:10 PM) We got more runs out of 3B last year than we'll get from Crede this year. We got more runs out of CF last year than we'll get from Rowand this year. We got more runs out of SS last year than we'll get from Uribe this year. We got more runs out of C last year than we'll get from AJ/Davis this year. There is something about these projections that just don't add up. Valentin was horrid last year, yet we are going to have drop off at SS? I don't think so. The catcher position is going to be less productive with AJ as our main starter over the Olivo-Alomar-Burke-Davis combo of '04? Not. Lies, Damn lies and statistics. Good points, Yas. We're upgrading at C, SS, 3B (Crede should improve upon last years numbers), & RF (Dye >>> Borchard, Perez, Ordonez combo of '04). We only really have a dropoff in LF. 2005 definitely will be an interesting year, no doubt... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted February 10, 2005 Share Posted February 10, 2005 (edited) You've got to make it purty guys ... '04 AVG OBP SLG '05 AVG OBP SLG C .267 .316 .403 Pierzynski .294 .336 .438 1B .290 .368 .561 Konkerko .278 .345 .481 2B .268 .324 .412 Iggy* .269 .337 .446 3B .243 .296 .417 Crede .256 .304 .434 SS .241 .303 .482 Uribe .266 .307 .438 LF .297 .358 .495 Podsednik .275 .343 .400 CF .288 .345 .471 Rowand .290 .342 .475 RF .256 .315 .414 Dye .272 .334 .463 DH .253 .367 .464 Frank .308 .429 .567 DH+ .253 .367 .464 Jurassic .277 .348 .473 Our RF was f***ing pituful last year... ..256/.315/.414 isn't even a league averge Catcher(.264/.323/.416 in '04) Edited February 10, 2005 by Gene Honda Civic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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