For those of you who watched Garland yesterday it was reminiscent of years past.

Always falling behind the hitters, giving up runs, & yet smiling thru it all.

 

Two runs were not his fault. When a ball drops on the warning track you blame the OFers failure to make a play. Especially when they look clueless standing 5-10 ft from where the ball drops.

 

But Jon was failling behind hitters & grinning. WTF is that?

At the same time he threw some beautiful pitches for strikes. He's Cybil-Jon.

This kid has more talent then I've seen from most ML pitchers. He throws effortlessly which means he's not just packed with potential but he's more durable than most.

Why does he have to delight in frustrating us all?

 

For what it's worth here are Jon's splits across the counts:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...ching&year=2004

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...ching&year=2003

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...ching&year=2002

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...ching&year=2001

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...ching&year=2000

 

2004: AB, BA/OPS

Count 0-0 120 .350/.969

Count 0-1 87 .356/.838

After 0-1 378 .254/.708

Count 0-2 57 .175/.421

After 0-2 140 .193/.535

Count 1-1 83 .241/.645

After 1-1 313 .249/.752

Count 1-2 109 .239/.640

After 1-2 212 .208/ .628

Count 1-0 73 .260/ .692

After 1-0 331 .257/ .796

Count 2-0 27 .259/ .704

After 2-0 96 .271/ .984

Count 2-1 64 .313/ .859

After 2-1 151 .298/ .937

Count 2-2 107 .196/ .566

After 2-2 166 .193/ .651

Count 3-2 77 .221/ .831

After 3-2 77 .221/ .831

 

2003: AB, BA/OPS

Count 0-0 104 .269/ .789

Count 0-1 73 .288/ .715

After 0-1 360 .264/ .733

Count 0-2 49 .265/ .709

After 0-2 128 .242/ .688

Count 1-1 86 .302/ .767

After 1-1 289 .247/ .709

Count 1-2 90 .200/ .456

After 1-2 183 .186/ .527

Count 1-0 62 .355/ .973

After 1-0 259 .252/ .787

Count 2-0 13 .308/ .846

After 2-0 67 .224/ .897

Count 2-1 49 .327/ .959

After 2-1 138 .255/ .865

Count 2-2 109 .183/ .514

After 2-2 150 .180/ .619

Count 3-2 59 .136/ .645

After 3-2 59 .136/ .645

 

2002: AB, BA/OPS

Count 0-0 104 .375/ .896

Count 0-1 66 .333/ .828

After 0-1 335 .224/ .667

Count 0-2 71 .141/ .338

After 0-2 145 .179/ .520

Count 1-1 72 .319/ .883

After 1-1 272 .235/ .740

Count 1-2 110 .164/ .462

After 1-2 189 .185/ .569

Count 1-0 67 .269/ .806

After 1-0 289 .256/ .797

Count 2-0 19 .316/ .824

After 2-0 74 .257/ .860

Count 2-1 56 .250/ .732

After 2-1 125 .264/ .888

Count 2-2 78 .218/ .571

After 2-2 123 .228/ .722

Count 3-2 65 .215/ .829

After 3-2 65 .215/ .829

 

2001: AB, BA/OPS

Count 0-0 50 .400/ .880

Count 0-1 35 .286/ .749

After 0-1 187 .230/ .660

Count 0-2 20 .300/ .814

After 0-2 59 .237/ .585

Count 1-1 52 .231/ .591

After 1-1 190 .221/ .741

Count 1-2 51 .216/ .569

After 1-2 115 .183/ .551

Count 1-0 45 .356/ .822

After 1-0 207 .290/ .872

Count 2-0 18 .278/ .778

After 2-0 65 .323/ .972

Count 2-1 36 .389/ 1.056

After 2-1 95 .274/ .920

Count 2-2 75 .160/ .413

After 2-2 111 .180/ .590

Count 3-2 49 .204/ .798

After 3-2 49 .204/ .798

 

2000: AB, BA/OPS

Count 0-0 37 .432/ 1.378

Count 0-1 22 .364/ .937

After 0-1 107 .243/ .703

Count 0-2 15 .333/ .733

After 0-2 39 .282/ .769

Count 1-1 27 .407/ .948

After 1-1 113 .221/ .679

Count 1-2 34 .294/ .971

After 1-2 69 .217/ .733

Count 1-0 24 .417/ .958

After 1-0 137 .292/ .869

Count 2-0 23 .304/ .696

After 2-0 46 .261/ .912

Count 2-1 20 .200/ .550

After 2-1 58 .138/ .579

Count 2-2 42 .071/ .190

After 2-2 54 .130/ .504

Count 3-2 28 .286/ 1.071

After 3-2 28 .286/ 1.071

 

There's a lot of data there & I'll summarize it later but I wanted to post it so others could take a look at comment as well. I hoping something in the grouping of this data will show Jon's improving & the best is yet to come.

The only data we need to know is that Jon Garland has yet to pitch like he can. Will he? Who knows, but fact of the matter his control is the reason why he's not a very good pitcher, thats it.

 

I don't need stats to tell me that.

The only data we need to know is that Jon Garland has yet to pitch like he can.  Will he? Who knows, but fact of the matter his control is the reason why he's not a very good pitcher, thats it. 

 

I don't need stats to tell me that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Great post Jason.

The only data we need to know is that Jon Garland has yet to pitch like he can.  Will he? Who knows, but fact of the matter his control is the reason why he's not a very good pitcher, thats it. 

 

I don't need stats to tell me that.

 

Exactly.

 

And damn -- nice bunt by Willie there!

Below lists the %'s of AB's he was ahead in the count, & the avg's of the batting average & ops for those counts. It does the same for when he was behind in the counts, & even in the counts.

 

The numbers show Jon not only digressed in 04 but 03 as well. His best

year was 02. I would not expect much more out of him in 2004. When Kenny says Jon is capable of winning 15 games he must be assuming Jon will get an avg of 6RPG in support. That's not going to happen.

 

2004 ahead 37% 238A/628OPS, behind 34% 263A/830OPS, even 30% 246A/716OPS

2003 ahead 38% 241A/638OPS, behind 30% 249A/827OPS, even 32% 236A/680OPS

2002 ahead 39% 204A/564OPS, behind 33% 255A/821OPS, even 28% 275A/763OPS

2001 ahead 31% 242A/655OPS, behind 37% 290A/877OPS, even 32% 238A/643OPS

2000 ahead 31% 289A/808OPS, behind 39% 273A/838OPS, even 30% 252A/740OPS

Edited March 19, 200521 yr by JUGGERNAUT

maybe he was smiling because its spring training and he is trying to keep a positive attitude and not get down on himself. Even though he loaded the bases i was actually impressed with the way he pitched out of it only giving up 1 run

It's Spring Training. They like to have fun in the sun you know. Jon can do the job, and your right to point out that he has a lot of talent. I think he will come around and be ready to start the season.

For comparison Contreras' #'s:

JC 2003 Ahead 38% 138A/366OPS, Behind 34% 250A/747OPS, Even 28% 197A/539OPS

JC 2004 Ahead 35% 219A/590OPS, Behind 36% 253A/848OPS, Even 29% 241A/698OPS

JG 2004 ahead 37% 238A/628OPS, behind 34% 263A/830OPS, even 30% 246A/716OPS

 

Contreras really digressed in 04 after the league got a good look at him.

His 2003 #'s are so good though that there is greater reason to hope. I don't think

it's out of the question for him to get 15 wins. Much better chance than Garland.

 

Jose Contreras 2004:

AB BA OPS

Count 0-0 72 0.306 0.849

Count 0-1 48 0.417 1.088

After 0-1 308 0.25 0.695

Count 0-2 54 0.185 0.481

After 0-2 116 0.164 0.409

Count 1-1' 65 0.323 0.908

After 1-1' 283 0.237 0.754

Count 1-2' 96 0.146 0.405

After 1-2' 164 0.152 0.461

Count 1-0' 56 0.321 1.007

After 1-0' 277 0.242 0.861

Count 2-0' 24 0.208 0.542

After 2-0' 82 0.244 0.967

Count 2-1' 56 0.286 0.912

After 2-1' 156 0.263 0.896

Count 2-2' 86 0.174 0.437

After 2-2' 135 0.163 0.54

Count 3-2' 70 0.229 0.799

After 3-2' 70 0.229 0.799

 

Jose Conteras 2003:

0-0 24 0.167 0.431

0-1 23 0.261 0.565

0-1 118 0.186 0.487

0-2 21 0.048 0.178

0-2 44 0.091 0.28

1-1' 20 0.25 0.6

1-1' 101 0.198 0.596

1-2' 46 0.087 0.237

1-2' 78 0.154 0.448

1-0' 23 0.304 0.87

1-0' 115 0.226 0.738

2-0' 16 0.375 0.75

2-0' 42 0.262 0.846

2-1' 14 0.214 0.5

2-1' 45 0.2 0.73

2-2' 42 0.19 0.5

2-2' 55 0.182 0.57

3-2' 19 0.211 0.769

3-2' 19 0.211 0.769

Edited March 19, 200521 yr by JUGGERNAUT

Below lists the %'s of AB's he was ahead in the count, & the avg's of the batting average & ops for those counts.  It does the same for when he was behind in the counts, & even in the counts.

 

The numbers show Jon not only digressed in 04 but 03 as well.  His best

year was 02.  I would not expect much more out of him in 2004.  When Kenny says Jon is capable of winning 15 games he must be assuming Jon will get an avg of 6RPG in support.  That's not going to happen. 

 

2004 ahead 37% 238A/628OPS, behind 34% 263A/830OPS, even 30% 246A/716OPS

2003 ahead 38% 241A/638OPS, behind 30% 249A/827OPS, even 32% 236A/680OPS

2002 ahead 39% 204A/564OPS, behind 33% 255A/821OPS, even 28% 275A/763OPS

2001 ahead 31% 242A/655OPS, behind 37% 290A/877OPS, even 32% 238A/643OPS 

2000 ahead 31% 289A/808OPS, behind 39% 273A/838OPS, even 30% 252A/740OPS

Digressed or regressed?

i think someone is looking way 2 much into stats

a lot of people are looking too much into stats

 

as long as he keeps winnin 12 games with a decent ERA I am perfectly fine with that because I think all he can do is get better with experiance and he is very young

 

plus he is my favorite player

garland is a FA after this year. what happens if BMac proves himself when he is called up. i say let Jon leave. that will save us 3-5 mill. money we can use on A.J. , PK, etc. too bad we still have Contreras another yr.

garland is a FA after this year.

No, no he's not.

No, no he's not.

why? is he arb. eligable? the sox gave him a 1 yr, 3 1/5 mill contract..

i just think its dumb that he should get more cash every year even though his numbers remain the same.

why? is he arb. eligable? the sox gave him a 1 yr, 3 1/5 mill contract..

i just think its dumb that he should get more cash every year even though his numbers remain the same.

 

Why get rid of Garland? he puts up better numbers than contreras and is like 3X cheaper.. If anyone needs to be gone its him.. Garland is more valuable

 

who could forget when he out dueled Santana at the Homer Dome... that game will live on with me forever

Edited March 20, 200521 yr by T R U

Buehrle

Garcia

?

BMac

Hernandez

the sox should get another SP, a number 3 or higher, then they would have a nice 06 starting staff.

JG and contreras are soooo inconsistant.

as mcgwire said, "i wanna focus on the positive, not the negative." garland is an innings eater, he is not an ace, which is why he ain't getting that type of money. he pitches according to his salary. more consistent than contreras. stop looking at him to be an ace, he's more of a lower end guy, and frankly there's nothing wrong w/ that. see him for what he is.

 

i'm out

Bumping Girland down to the #5 slot is the best thing the Sox did this off season. They basically gave up on him. I expect 12-14 wins, I won't let him frustrate me any more.

Buehrle

Garcia

?

BMac

Hernandez

the sox should get another SP, a number 3 or higher, then they would have a nice 06 starting staff.

JG and contreras are soooo inconsistant.

Two things have to happen for that to occur. Contreras would need to be traded, most likely with the Sox paying some portion of his salary, while Garland would either be non - tendered (like the Pierzynski situation) or traded (definitely most likely the latter). Who would the #3 guy be though if we signed a FA (don't know the list off the top of my head). Or maybe even the Sox trade for a guy like Sheets and push Buerhle and Garcia down a spot each.

The main purpose of the thread was simply to prepare fans of Jon like myself for another mediocre year & to stop thinking the glass is 1/2 full with him.

 

You can't deny his numbers when you see what he's doing this spring.

Falling behind the hitters & then living or dying on great pitches to get outs.

He's had over 5 yrs to develop the mindset to get ahead of the hitters in the counts. AJP went out to talk to him twice in Fri's game. He was smiling. He just doesn't take the game seriously enough to have a breakout year.

 

On the other side of the coin you've got a kid with awesome potential.

Despite being behind in the counts more often than not Jon makes great pitches to get the outs. So that's a formula for a cheap player with breakout potential any year. If he can just show dramatic improvement in getting ahead of hitters this year I'm willing to keep him thru his arbit yrs.

 

We know for certain that AJP takes the game much more seriously than Jon. I think that's got to have an impact in the regular season. I won't be surprised if AJ goes out to ream his arse the first inning he falls behind 2 hitters in a row.

QUOTE(T R U @ Mar 19, 2005 -> 08:28 PM)

Why get rid of Garland? he puts up better numbers than contreras and is like 3X cheaper.. If anyone needs to be gone its him.. Garland is more valuable

 

who could forget when he out dueled Santana at the Homer Dome... that game will live on with me forever

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

GMAFB.

 

Garland had a better 2004 (not by that much, and won 12 games compared to 13) yet Contreras had a far superior 2003. So how did you come up with the conclusion that Garland puts up better numbers than Contreras? Are you just basing it on 2004?

 

As for the game you mention, I wouldn't say he outdueled him because he had some amazing defense behind from Valentin and Gload that day. Seriously, Santana struck out 12 and gave up only 3 hits in 8 IP.

We'll see at the end of the year.

GMAFB.

 

Garland had a better 2004 (not by that much, and won 12 games compared to 13) yet Contreras had a far superior 2003.  So how did you come up with the conclusion that Garland puts up better numbers than Contreras?  Are you just basing it on 2004?

 

As for the game you mention, I wouldn't say he outdueled him because he had some amazing defense behind from Valentin and Gload that day.  Seriously, Santana struck out 12 and gave up only 3 hits in 8 IP.

 

Some people will do anything to bash Jon Garland and take away all credit that he should get

 

pathetic

Jon Garland is a consistent 12 game winner and is only like 25-26 also doesnt cost much at all. and as far as giving up on him thats just ridiculous... they didnt bump Garland to the 5th spot they just finally figured out that to succeed you need 5 starters.