Williams obsession with certain prospects

[shawnhillegas]

I dont mind the deal, but for the fact that our outfield is still god-awful in left and center. But what concerns me here are Kenny's statements that he had been scouting Danks and Masset since June; they were the crown jewels that he was intent on getting for our system. Kenny seems to have done this for a number of different prospects and every day major leaguers now, from Vazquez to Thornton, and I am wondering what others think about this strategy. I'm convinced that if you spend enough time focusing on one player, you will end up overvaluing that player, much the way that we tend to overvalue our own prospects. Is the obsession with Danks a good thing, or does it blind Kenny and prevent him from seeing far better options that may be out there, especially in the outfield?

Edited December 24, 2006 by shawnhillegas

[elrockinMT]

I dont mind the deal, but for the fact that our outfield is still god-awful in left and center. But what concerns me here are Kenny's statements that he had been scouting Danks and Masset since June; they were the crown jewels that he was intent on getting for our system. Kenny seems to have done this for a number of different prospects and every day major leaguers now, from Vazquez to Thornton, and I am wondering what others think about this strategy. I'm convinced that if you spend enough time focusing on one player, you will end up overvaluing that player, much the way that we tend to overvalue our own prospects. Is the obsession with Danks a good thing, or does it blind Kenny and prevent him from seeing far better options that may be out there, especially in the outfield?

 

 

I can certainly appreciate your thoughts and concerns on the scouting issue, but the other train of thought would be to make absolutely sure the guy is worth going after and just watching a few games, or for a few weeks isn't really going to tell you everything you need to knoiw for a good decision. Plus I am sure more than just one or two people help make these decisions so you want as many of your involved decision makers or observers involved in the actual scouting report.

[NCsoxfan]

Kenny and the rest of the front office personnel have the responsibility to plan into the future. The future is not just 2007 or 2008 as most would say.

 

The fact that they have such a targeted approach is encouraging. Whether that plan proves to be successful or not is another issue, and only time will tell.

[BoKnows]

Seems to me like Kenny and Jerry going the route of the post Jordan Bulls. God I hope I am wrong, but the McCarthy deal makes little sense to me. I thought McCarthy was "untouchable?"

 

I just hope Danks and Floyd do not turn into the next Curry/Chandler project.

[Baines3]

As I have said before this Bmac trade makes so sense what so ever. KW must be obsessed with something.

[TheBigHurt]

QUOTE(shawnhillegas @ Dec 24, 2006 -> 11:23 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I dont mind the deal, but for the fact that our outfield is still god-awful in left and center. But what concerns me here are Kenny's statements that he had been scouting Danks and Masset since June; they were the crown jewels that he was intent on getting for our system. Kenny seems to have done this for a number of different prospects and every day major leaguers now, from Vazquez to Thornton, and I am wondering what others think about this strategy. I'm convinced that if you spend enough time focusing on one player, you will end up overvaluing that player, much the way that we tend to overvalue our own prospects. Is the obsession with Danks a good thing, or does it blind Kenny and prevent him from seeing far better options that may be out there, especially in the outfield?

 

Edited December 24, 2006 by TheBigHurt

[Chisox_10]

Seems to me like Kenny and Jerry going the route of the post Jordan Bulls. God I hope I am wrong, but the McCarthy deal makes little sense to me. I thought McCarthy was "untouchable?"

 

I just hope Danks and Floyd do not turn into the next Curry/Chandler project.

Yes, he is obsessed with something. He is obsessed with winning another World Championship. Before 2005 people said:

People said how can he trade Carlos Lee for Pods?

People said "Get rid of Joe Crede"

People said "Get rid of Garland"

People said" Tadahito who?"

People said "Uribe who?'

People said "How can he not sign Ordonez?'

People said "Ozzie Guillen as manager"?

People said "Trade Rowand" ( Then when he did trade him People said "How could you trade him?"

People said "Contreras sucks" and Kenny stuck with him.

 

So....All you posters quit sounding like marriotti.

Do you honestly believe that you all know more then him about these players we have now?

 

We are loading up on pitching. Guys with high fastball, good breaking stuff.

Guys with high ceilings.

Everyone wants pitching and we have a ton of it.

Do you want to be one of those teams that will be stuck with long term deals for average pitching and be unable to make other moves for a couple years because of it?

 

Do you want to give Buehrle a 5 year deal at 11 million per year?

 

Lets look at the other side.

What if Floyd, Denks, Gio Gonzalez become studs? What if Masset becomes a stud late inning stopper?

What if Ardsma does as well?

 

What if we win 2 titles in the next 3 years because of these moves?

 

I will tell you all right now- we will be kissing the ground Kenny walks on very soon because this plan and these moves will make us the envy of every organization in the next year or so and we will all be celebrating another championship.

[Texsox]

Well compared to the days when he traded for a guy and found out it wasn't the one he thought it was, he's come a long way.

 

Some of this could be posturing and making the guy feel wanted and "special". We'll never hear about the guys they are coveting and never get. So it may seem he only gets guys he's been stalking and has a man crush on.

[witesoxfan]

Yes, he is obsessed with something. He is obsessed with winning another World Championship. Before 2005 people said:

People said how can he trade Carlos Lee for Pods?

People said "Get rid of Joe Crede"

People said "Get rid of Garland"

People said" Tadahito who?"

People said "Uribe who?'

People said "How can he not sign Ordonez?'

People said "Ozzie Guillen as manager"?

People said "Trade Rowand" ( Then when he did trade him People said "How could you trade him?"

People said "Contreras sucks" and Kenny stuck with him.

 

Uhh, most of those are just completely false. Everyone knew who Uribe was, Ordonez was the easiest player to not resign in KW's 6 years as GM, Ozzie was a solid manager in 2004, Rowand was coming off a .900+ OPS season, and Contreras DID suck, but seeing as how he was acting as a 4th starter, his sub-mediocre numbers were somewhat acceptable.

 

 

So....All you posters quit sounding like marriotti.

Do you honestly believe that you all know more then him about these players we have now?

 

Who said anything about that? The fact of the matter is he flat out didn't get nearly enough value for McCarthy, who is very easily the White Sox most valuable trading chip. I'm not disappointed in seeing this talent come back, but rather I'm disappointed in how much more he should have gotten. There's no reason not to get another good pitching prospect back in that deal (and Rasner is not a good pitching prospect).

 

Do you want to be one of those teams that will be stuck with long term deals for average pitching and be unable to make other moves for a couple years because of it?

 

Since when does McCarthy have a long term deal that will hurt the organization financially? 5 years and probably around $12 mill is what you'd be looking at. That's pretty f'ing cheap if you ask me.

 

 

Do you want to give Buehrle a 5 year deal at 11 million per year?

 

LOL, he'd laugh at you. He's looking at 5/$70 at the very minimum right now, and I could easily see him getting a 6/$100 deal in this market.

 

Lets look at the other side.

What if Floyd, Denks, Gio Gonzalez become studs? What if Masset becomes a stud late inning stopper?

What if Ardsma does as well?

 

That looks like just one side to me.

 

What if Floyd becomes mediocre, Danks isn't a #3 till 2009, Gio's traded, and Masset and Aardsma are merely just good middle relievers? Then what? I personally find that scenario much more likely than all 5 of them becoming studs.

 

What if we win 2 titles in the next 3 years because of these moves?

 

I'd probably make some sweet manlove with KW. I doubt it happens.

 

I will tell you all right now- we will be kissing the ground Kenny walks on very soon because this plan and these moves will make us the envy of every organization in the next year or so and we will all be celebrating another championship.

 

Or, if LF is not upgraded, we could enjoy sitting in 3rd and 4th place next year in a down year in the AL Central, and then 2008 might be worse.

[thedoctor]

Well compared to the days when he traded for a guy and found out it wasn't the one he thought it was, he's come a long way.

 

lol.

 

anyhow, i do think that kenny does have certain guys who he really wants to have on the sox. it seems like there's a lot of cases where he's rumored to be pursuing certain players for a long period of time and those guys in many cases end up on the sox.

 

i'm not too certain what to make of how this offseason has progressed. i think there's a good chance he's made some genius moves that are way ahead of the curve. or, he could have made some unnecessarily aggressive moves that will hurt this organization in both the short and long term. time will tell.

[Jeremy]

I dont mind the deal, but for the fact that our outfield is still god-awful in left and center. But what concerns me here are Kenny's statements that he had been scouting Danks and Masset since June; they were the crown jewels that he was intent on getting for our system. Kenny seems to have done this for a number of different prospects and every day major leaguers now, from Vazquez to Thornton, and I am wondering what others think about this strategy. I'm convinced that if you spend enough time focusing on one player, you will end up overvaluing that player, much the way that we tend to overvalue our own prospects. Is the obsession with Danks a good thing, or does it blind Kenny and prevent him from seeing far better options that may be out there, especially in the outfield?

 

Fantastic post. I've been asking the exact same questions. It's hard to tell exactly what Kenny means when he mentions how there are a handful of players he would consider dealing for in trades who his scouts have been watching for months. My fear is that he is only considering deals for a select group of predetermined prospects. This seems problematic since presumably one would maximize returns in a trade by being open to trading for any prospect in any system. Furthermore, you raise a great point: if your scouts have watched a player for months and become fond of him, might you lose sight of that player's market value?

[GoodAsGould]

I like KW's obsessions, he finds players that he thinks will be good and scouts them heavily to make sure and than he does what he needs to acquire them. Whats not to like =)

[YASNY]

I like KW's obsessions, he finds players that he thinks will be good and scouts them heavily to make sure and than he does what he needs to acquire them. Whats not to like =)

 

Agreed. It's better than scouring message boards and taking notes to determine your trade plans.

[DBAHO]

I'm glad that KW has found out the value of good young pitching.

 

It's cost us Freddy Garcia, Brandon McCarthy, Neal Cotts and Ross Gload, but I think if you look at our minor league system in terms of SP and our bullpen, it's a lot better.

 

And let's hope a guy like Gavin Floyd or Charlie Haeger takes charge, grabs the bull by the horns, and really contributes well at the #5 spot.

 

Because if that's the case, we haven't lost a lot from our 2006 rotation in terms of numbers, and our long - term future in terms of competing in this tough division is a whole lot rosier than it was 2 months ago.

[beck72]

I like KW's obsessions, he finds players that he thinks will be good and scouts them heavily to make sure and than he does what he needs to acquire them. Whats not to like =)

I agree. And this way, when players he likes have a down year, KW can acquire them at a reduced cost.

[Harry Chappas]

Agreed. It's better than scouring message boards and taking notes to determine your trade plans.

 

Or having to spend $18M next year guys like Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis.