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As the Season Nears...


BobDylan

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A little shameless self promotion here:

 

As the Season Nears...

 

Scott Podsednik

 

Is the groin healthy? It’s well known that this guy is no better than a 4th outfielder on any roster when he’s not swiping bags. But when he is healthy, the bags he steals and the rate in which he does puts him among some of the most valuable players not only in left field, but in the entire league. If you don’t buy this, just look at the amount of games the White Sox win when he’s active on the bases (stealing bags, scoring runs), and when he’s not. (I’d do it for you, but I don’t know where to find a reference. If you don’t either, just trust me on this one. I’m right.)

Early reports indicate he’s ahead of schedule after off-season surgery. If ready by opening day (and it looks that way), he will be the starting left fielder. But if he’s anything less than one-hundred percent, the Sox might be best looking at other options. Podsednik is not only light with the bat when unhealthy (.261 BA, .330 OBP), he’s also one of the worst defensive left fielders in the American League.

Rob Mackowiak is the obvious replacement because the team has slated Darrin Erstad to start in center field. Mack is the best offensive replacement, but starting him would leave the bench light, not to mention he’s not a realistic lead-off option.

The ideal situation is to slide Erstad to left and put Brian Anderson back in center, but since Ozzie has an undocumented grudge against Anderson, he will start the season in Minor Leagues regardless. Defensively, an outfield of Erstad-Anderson-Dye is perhaps the best the White Sox can offer. But the chances Anderson is even a part of the White Sox organization come the All-Star break are slim or none.

It looks like the Sox will have to live with Podsednik at the top of the order until his groin falls off. The only other player on the roster that provides to tools to replace Podsednik is Luis Terrero. However, Terrero, if possible, might be even worse an offensive player. Does this mean the adventures of Pablo Ozuna will return?

 

All in all, a productive Scott Podsednik is so important to the team’s offensive production, it might not matter who they put in his position (outside of anyone named Ichiro Suzuki).

But if Podsednik can’t return to pre-2005 All-Star break form, the team might benefit most if they focus on a defensive outfield and play lead-off hitter by committee.

Starting Pitching

If the transition from 2005 to 2006 isn’t enough proof that pitching wins championships and not offense, then I’m not sure there is enough proof.

Every single pitcher in the starting rotation saw their numbers decline in an alarming way from ’05 to ’06. Mark Buehrle and Freddy Garcia posted career worst ERAs. Buehrle finished with more losses (13) than wins (12). Freddy Garcia is a Philadelphia Phillie now.

 

And Brandon McCarthy, the “can’t miss” prospect who, to quote my good friend Crash Davis, “couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a *bleep* boat”, is now a Texas Ranger.

Insert Gavin Floyd, Gio Gonzalez, John Danks, Nick Masset and the two for one (four for two in this case) pitch line Kenny Williams tried to sell to fans. Recently we’ve heard more along the lines of, “Wait until you see them pitch.”

 

Gonzalez isn’t yet ready to make an impact at the major league level, but Floyd, Danks and Masset are all competing for a roll on the roster in some form or another. Competing with them, Andrew Sisco (acquired from the Royals) and Adam Russell.

 

Of the five listed, only one has (to this date) a sub 4.00 ERA in spring training. Lefty Andrew Sisco, 3.38; and last I heard, the Sox plan to send him to the farm and stretch his arm out before joining the rotation. Though, the word might change. He is also in consideration for a bullpen spot.

 

Otherwise, the race to fill out the rotation is between Floyd, Danks and Russell.

Gavin Floyd, a former top prospect from the Phillie’s, has seen his stock drop. Once touted as a guy who can regularly touch the mid to high 90’s on the gun, his velocity has dropped to a more human-like 89-93 MPH range. His breaking pitch is still devastating, but less so with a below average fastball. At 24 years old, the door is starting to creep shut on this guy. If he can hold the fort and hover around a 5.00 ERA, the team should be more than pleased.

 

Danks and Russell seem like long shots to win the spot behind Floyd, but this is more due to experience. Neither Danks nor Russell has a major league inning under their belt. Danks is compared to Mark Buehrle in terms of physique and stuff, and Adam Russell is a guy who can regularly throw 95+. Both seem more likely destined for the bullpen, if not the minor leagues. However, look for them to contribute in larger ways come 2008.

 

It’s far too early to say who the Sox are best off with at the tail end of the rotation. But there is some comfort in knowing that there is more than one option to go to if any one of these guys struggles out of the gate.

 

But perhaps most important, every word above is moot unless Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Jose Contreras and Javier Vazquez perform as expected. If not, there may be a point somewhere in the season where all of Floyd, Danks, Russel and Sisco are in the starting rotation. But let’s hope the team doesn’t have to go that route this year.

Bullpen

 

Likewise, the ’06 bullpen was just as bad as the rotation. Outside of Thornton and Jenks, the bullpen was a mess. The acquisition of Mike MacDougal was more a move for the future than it was to stop the bleeding.

 

With these three in the back, the Sox figure to have one of the most powerful and dominating 7th, 8th, and 9th inning bullpen in the American League. All these guys can flat out bring it, and they all have above average stuff. If the rotation finds any form of consistency, the Sox may not need much else in the bullpen.

 

However, logic suggests (and all the lessons learned from last year) that the deeper a team’s bullpen is, the better off they are.

Boone Logan (0.00 ERA in spring training) will likely be the second lefty in the Sox pen. But it’s hard to forget that he pulled this same act last spring training, and then what happened once the season started. Worse even, lefties batted an unhealthy .357 against Logan last year.

 

Danks is the other option, and might even jump on as a third lefty, but it’s not likely the team will want to carry three lefties. Best bet is he’ll move back to the minor leagues and continue seasoning. Neither him nor Logan will make the team strictly as a “specialist,” as Guillen has shown on several occasions that his pitchers need to get out hitters from both sides.

 

Sisco is also an option, but it looks like the team has other ideas for him. His power arm could prove to be beneficial. He has the stuff the spell any of Thornton, MacDougal or Jenks on any given night, but he still has questions about his ability to locate the ball. It’s possible he won’t appear on the Sox roster until next year.

 

Whoever comes in as the second lefty, their role could become pivotal if the starting staff can’t go deep into games. With Thornton reserved for the late innings, it is important the team has a reliable pitcher to face a few tough hitters and keep the door shut.

 

Aardsma turned out to be a disappointment (so far), and that puts the White Sox in need for a right hander. Masset appears to be the guy, but I always feel a team is better going off with an experienced pitcher. If he gets the job, I expect his role to be limited.

If Floyd struggles in the rotation, the Sox might rather push him to the bullpen instead of back to the Minor Leagues.

If Sean Tracey were ever given a good look from the organization, he might find himself somewhere in the thick of the bullpen race too. This appears to be more of an emergency plan than anything, however.

 

Charlie Haeger could end up the long relief man if all goes well for him. He’s perhaps the best knuckleball prospect the game has ever seen, but that’s more due to the rarity of knuckleball pitchers. Haeger rarely tops 80 MPH on the gun, but the Chicago winds must make his knuckleball giddy.

 

 

Two of these got posted. Hope one gets deleted. I didn't want to whore myself out with two posts.

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Good read. It just wouldn't be a Soxtalk article without this...

 

The ideal situation is to slide Erstad to left and put Brian Anderson back in center, but since Ozzie has an undocumented grudge against Anderson, he will start the season in Minor Leagues regardless.

 

poor Brian Anderson.... :crying

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