DEM Primaries/Candidates thread

[HuskyCaucasian]

I think something like this was proposed earlier, but here is my official MI / FL Delegate Solution:

Split MI delegates 55-45 for Clinton. That 70 delegates for Clinton, 58 for Obama (Obama gets all the other delegates that did not voted for Hillary). Maybe even count each delegate as "half" for their punishment.

Then take the FL delegates and count them for half as their punishment. Hillary gets 52.5, Obama 33.5, Edwards 6.5.

 

I am not suggesting this as I still believe they should not count. But of all the solutions this is the easiest and most fair.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Well, it seems to me he's changed his affect a bit. Athomeboy brings up the fighter thing, but, I think that's only part of it - he has indeed responded to the attacks much more forcefully and bluntly lately. That's probably helping. But I meant something more than that too. If you see his public demeanor, he's taken on a different style. Less preachy, more to-the-point. Held held a little lower - more piercing in his gaze, less of the head-up analytical thing. Its subtle - not as dramatic as the various identities of Mrs. Clinton - but its still a definite change.

hmmm... i think that might be true. I must confess that since OH and TX i have followed this election much less. Frankly, I am tired of it all. I notice the little brush ups and stuff, but largely I have turned it off. But you make a good point from what I have seen.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think something like this was proposed earlier, but here is my official MI / FL Delegate Solution:

Split MI delegates 55-45 for Clinton. That 70 delegates for Clinton, 58 for Obama (Obama gets all the other delegates that did not voted for Hillary). Maybe even count each delegate as "half" for their punishment.

Then take the FL delegates and count them for half as their punishment. Hillary gets 52.5, Obama 33.5, Edwards 6.5.

 

I am not suggesting this as I still believe they should not count. But of all the solutions this is the easiest and most fair.

Giving any sort of credence to the results of those two joke primaries would be a travesty for all involved, including FL and MI voters. MI didn't even have anyone on the ballot other than Clinton. Florida assumed it didn't count, and lots of folks voted in the GOP primary.

 

At this point, I think they will both be re-done. I really doubt they "honor" any of the results as is. They'll re-do them, or split them 50-50, or leave the situation as is.

 

[Rex Kickass]

I think Michigan, because they didn't actually have a real primary, will have a re-vote. Florida will not.

 

However, given that Clinton admitted on NPR this week that she reneged on her pledge to not participate in the Michigan and Florida primaries, I don't feel that her delegates should be seated from those states until a consensus candidate is reached.

 

It isn't just Michigan or Florida that broke the rules, she did too and there should be sanctions for it.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think Michigan, because they didn't actually have a real primary, will have a re-vote. Florida will not.

 

However, given that Clinton admitted on NPR this week that she reneged on her pledge to not participate in the Michigan and Florida primaries, I don't feel that her delegates should be seated from those states until a consensus candidate is reached.

 

It isn't just Michigan or Florida that broke the rules, she did too and there should be sanctions for it.

So a re-vote in MI, and FL just doesn't get seated until there is a concensus candidate? Sounds OK, although I think some Floridians will be upset by that. Of course, they SHOULD be blaming their politicians who got them in that position, but their ire may effect the whole party.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Another ting to consider:

Many say the "redos" would be in June. So, they'd be re-holding the elections on the last day of the primary season. By then, it will most likely be decided. SO, they will poor tons of money into redoing votes that largely will not matter!

[NorthSideSox72]

Another ting to consider:

Many say the "redos" would be in June. So, they'd be re-holding the elections on the last day of the primary season. By then, it will most likely be decided. SO, they will poor tons of money into redoing votes that largely will not matter!

It won't be decided by then, actually. Neither candidate, barring something truly unexpected, is going to reach the number of delegates needed to win.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

It won't be decided by then, actually. Neither candidate, barring something truly unexpected, is going to reach the number of delegates needed to win.

well no. Probably not. what I am saying is that they largely wont matter unless Clinton makes a HUGE delegate comeback in the next 3 states.

My personal stance is that popular delegate vote should decide it and the superdelegates should fall in behind. So, if going into FL and MI Obama has a 60+ point lead, FL and MI wont really matter. They might make it close, but not close enough.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Obama and Clinton Agree To Peace

Remember that caught on C-SPAN Clinton-Obama conversation in the seats of the Senate yesterday? AP reports that they spoke about trying to change the tone -- at least of their surrogates.

 

"They approached one another and spoke about how supporters for both campaigns have said things they reject," said Clinton spokesman Phil Singer, per AP. "They agreed that the contrasts between their respective records, qualifications and issues should be what drives this campaign, and nothing else."

 

"An Obama adviser, speaking on a condition of anonymity about the private conversation, gave a similar account, while stressing that it was Obama who approached Clinton on the subject. They committed to making sure that their supporters don't get overheated in the future, the adviser said."

 

I doubt the Clinton campaign complies. but nice move by Obama.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think Michigan, because they didn't actually have a real primary, will have a re-vote. Florida will not.

 

However, given that Clinton admitted on NPR this week that she reneged on her pledge to not participate in the Michigan and Florida primaries, I don't feel that her delegates should be seated from those states until a consensus candidate is reached.

 

It isn't just Michigan or Florida that broke the rules, she did too and there should be sanctions for it.

Looking more and more like you are right about Michigan - looks like they are closing in on a deal for a new primary on 6/10.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Guess who's at it again.....

Clinton Going After Obama's Pledged Delegates in Iowa

As recent reports have shown, both campaigns are actively pursuing the 30 percent of county delegates pledged to John Edwards... The only problem? Jenkins is committed to Obama--meaning that, in Jenkins words, "Clinton is actively pursuing pledged delegates."

[jasonxctf]

interesting point with Edwards. How many delegates does he have? If he assigned or asked his delegates to move to either Clinton or Obama, would that mathmatically allow either one of them to win the nomination pre super delegates?

[HuskyCaucasian]

interesting point with Edwards. How many delegates does he have? If he assigned or asked his delegates to move to either Clinton or Obama, would that mathmatically allow either one of them to win the nomination pre super delegates?

26 delegates and no.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Obama widens lead in iowa....

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/200.../15/773286.aspx

 

We have final delegate allocation estimates directly from the Iowa Democratic Party based on today's 99 county conventions. The results, Obama indeed did gain 7 delegates to up his total from 16 (earned on Jan. 3) to 23 now. Clinton upped her total by 1, from 15 to 16 and Edwards dropped 8 delegates to 6. Those six will be up for grabs, perhaps, at the Iowa Democratic Party state convention in June.

 

Here's the updated delegate total, counting these new Iowa allocations:

 

Pledged Count: Obama leads 1,407-1,252

Superdelegates: Clinton leads 253-217

OVERALL TOTAL: Obama leads 1,624-1,505

[Rex Kickass]

The California delegate counts were finalized last night, according to NPR, and Obama gained 5 more delegates, Clinton 2. For a net Obama gain of 3 delegates.

[NorthSideSox72]

Two very interesting stories about the Dem race today...

 

1. Obama, who has pretty much tried to avoid discussing race in this contest unless its brought up, has apparently decided its time to open the flood gates. He's set to give a speech on Tuesday in Philly discussing racial issues and the current Presidential race. Should be interesting.

 

2. More and more, we're starting to see information that the "bump" that Clinton was getting that helped her in OH and TX, and that she is still capitalizing on now, appears to be in great part supported by Republicans. Yup, that's right. According to this article, about 100,000 GOP voters voted for her in OH, 119,000 in TX and 38,000 in MS. This despite the fact that Obama had been consistently dominant among independents and GOP'ers prior to that. So, it appears that perhaps the Rush bump may be real. Republicans, now that their race is over, are pushing Clinton because of course they'd rather have her in 2008. Or, they'd at least rather see the Dems fight to the bitter end.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

The California delegate counts were finalized last night, according to NPR, and Obama gained 5 more delegates, Clinton 2. For a net Obama gain of 3 delegates.

what was the total count?

[mr_genius]

Two very interesting stories about the Dem race today...

 

1. Obama, who has pretty much tried to avoid discussing race in this contest unless its brought up, has apparently decided its time to open the flood gates. He's set to give a speech on Tuesday in Philly discussing racial issues and the current Presidential race. Should be interesting.

 

2. More and more, we're starting to see information that the "bump" that Clinton was getting that helped her in OH and TX, and that she is still capitalizing on now, appears to be in great part supported by Republicans. Yup, that's right. According to this article, about 100,000 GOP voters voted for her in OH, 119,000 in TX and 38,000 in MS. This despite the fact that Obama had been consistently dominant among independents and GOP'ers prior to that. So, it appears that perhaps the Rush bump may be real. Republicans, now that their race is over, are pushing Clinton because of course they'd rather have her in 2008. Or, they'd at least rather see the Dems fight to the bitter end.

 

I think this scandal involving Obama's pastor is going to help Hillary as well.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think this scandal involving Obama's pastor is going to help Hillary as well.

Probably will, yes. Which is exactly why he is giving this speech - I think his hand has been forced.

 

[kapkomet]

I still want no part of Hillary Clinton appearing on a ballot. Even if there's a 1% chance of that happening, she's too damn close to the White House.

 

You know, either candidate is going to get vetted - it's going to be an uphill climb once the Re-pube-licans start their attacks... McCain won't directly, but you know the 501© 3's will.

[HuskyCaucasian]

I still want no part of Hillary Clinton appearing on a ballot. Even if there's a 1% chance of that happening, she's too damn close to the White House.

 

You know, either candidate is going to get vetted - it's going to be an uphill climb once the Re-pube-licans start their attacks... McCain won't directly, but you know the 501© 3's will.

you mean 527s

 

[kapkomet]

you mean 527s

D'oh. Yes. F'in accounting crap on the brain.

 

[Balta1701]

you mean 527s

In the Republican party, they're much more likely to use 501c3 organizations, which at some level are similar to 527's in that they are outside groups that can run attack and issue ads, but they're less regulated in terms of disclosure requirements. The basic dividing line is that the 501c3's have to offer something else, and can't just pop up or focus solely on an election like the Swift Vets or Move On's election fund. The NRA, for example, is your classic 501c3. As are most of the religious groups within that party.

 

The 527's can certainly make a difference, but one could argue it's the 501c3's that have the real power in the Republican party, because donations to those organizations don't need to be disclosed like they must be with 527's. The moneys can't be used in the same ways, and there are dividing lines within those organizations that enable the money to be moved around, but they are certainly key groups.

Edited March 17, 2008 by Balta1701

[Balta1701]

D'oh. Yes. F'in accounting crap on the brain.

Dammit dude, you posted this as I was defending you!

[HuskyCaucasian]

D'oh. Yes. F'in accounting crap on the brain.

i hear ya. I believe 501c3s are not allowed to be political, but i am not sure.

 

Edit: i stand corrected.

Edited March 17, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000