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DEM Primaries/Candidates thread


NorthSideSox72

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With 70% of Wyoming reporting, obama leads 58-41. Looks like he'll take Wyoming easily.

 

Clinton campaign likely to whine and moan that it's undemocratic, the state doesn't count, blah blah blah...

 

Must be the big African American vote.

 

Seriously though this won't effect Hilliary. CNN has her pegged as the front runner already.

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Laramie County, where Cheyenne and more than half the state's population reside, has already reported 100%. There are 3 counties left, all very rural. Teton has almost no people, but what is there are yuppie resort towns - I'd call that Obama territory. But I don't think he can make 60% into 64% with what is left.

 

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I've been enjoying this guys recent blogs:

 

Hillary Clinton's latest game - when she's not busy saying that Barack Obama isn't a Muslim "as far as I know" - is tantalizing supporters with the idea that Obama could wind up as her vice-presidential choice on a so-called Dream Ticket.

 

It's a genius strategy: Democrats, forced to choose between Hillary and Barack, don't need to choose after all, since they both could run together - as long as Barack is at the bottom of the ticket, of course.

 

Let's leave aside for the moment the question of why the candidate who has more delegates would somehow be relegated to the vice-presidential slot. That's the kind of Clintonian logic that I'm too unsophisticated to grasp.

 

Let's focus, instead, on this puzzle:

 

In her relentless attack ads before the Texas and Ohio primaries, and in public comments since, Hillary has said that Obama is not ready to pick up the "red phone" and serve as Commander-in-Chief. If that's true, why would she imperil the nation by choosing him as her vice-president?

 

Last time I checked, the vice-president was one heartbeat away from Commander-in-Chief. Which means, if anything should happen to Hillary, Barack Obama would be picking up that darned red phone.

 

Oops.

 

Now, before I get accused of misogyny - which seems to be the reflexive response of certain Hillary supporters whenever she is criticized - let me say that her talent for making blatantly contradictory statements without any sense of irony or shame makes her every bit the equal of a man. In this case, the man I'm talking about is Bill Clinton.

 

(Oddly, Samantha Power's "monster" comment was slammed by some Hillary supporters as being misogynistic, too - kind of a reach, given that it came from a woman. My only beef with Ms. Power is that her comment demonstrated too much restraint. I guess she already used "a problem from hell" to describe something else.)

 

So let's get back to Hillary's selection of a not-ready-for-red-phone-maybe-a-Muslim as her vice president. Instead of trying to sell us on the Dream Ticket, why doesn't Hillary call her accountant at 3 A.M. and ask him to email her a PDF of her tax returns? Sharing them with us shouldn't be such a big deal. Unless - and this is just a wild guess - is there something in those returns, say, about where her 5 million dollars she loaned herself actually came from, that might torpedo her candidacy?

 

Not as far as I know.

 

Andy Borowitz

 

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Wyoming to go 8-4 or 7-5 for Obama in delegates.

 

Two polls out for Mississippi on Tuesday...

 

ARG, March 5-6, 600 LV

Obama: 58%

Clinton: 34%

 

Insider Advantage, March 6, 412 LV

Obama: 46%

Clinton: 40%

 

Weird they are that different. The IA poll is kind of a small sample size, but ARG tends to have problems. TIFWIW. Obama leads, but its hard to say by how much

 

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QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Mar 8, 2008 -> 05:59 PM)
Judging by the demographics in Mississippi I would think the ARG poll might be a bit more accurate.

Except that ARG has been pretty unreliable before. We'll see. I think Obama wins, but I don't think he wins by 20.

 

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Updated Delegate Scorecard for the Dems. This is assuming the delegate split in WY is 7-5 for Obama, though most other sites I've seen are predicting 8-4. Anyway, Obama leading by about 110 delegates total - 1570 to 1460. His lead in pledged delegates is 154. Currently, Clinton has 245 Supers, Obama has 201. That gap has been slowly closing.

 

There are 9 states and 2 US territories left to vote. They represent 599 pledged delegates.

 

There are 795 total superdelegates, of which 446 have endorsed a candidate already. That leaves 349 supers undetermined.

 

John Edwards has 26 delegates to throw around, and he has yet to endorse a candidate. Plus the NC primary is looming.

 

There are 4049 Delegates total - 2025 are needed to win.

 

Then there are the FL and MI delegates, which were removed from the process, but may come back into play. I don't know how much they are worth.

 

Here is a possibility to consider. It may occur that even after all the states are done, AND all the supers have committed, that STILL, neither candidate makes 2025 - due to MI and FL. That's if they aren't re-done.

 

This has been your NSS delegate count update. Enjoy the madness.

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 8, 2008 -> 10:07 PM)
Updated Delegate Scorecard for the Dems. This is assuming the delegate split in WY is 7-5 for Obama, though most other sites I've seen are predicting 8-4. Anyway, Obama leading by about 110 delegates total - 1570 to 1460. His lead in pledged delegates is 154. Currently, Clinton has 245 Supers, Obama has 201. That gap has been slowly closing.

 

There are 9 states and 2 US territories left to vote. They represent 599 pledged delegates.

 

There are 795 total superdelegates, of which 446 have endorsed a candidate already. That leaves 349 supers undetermined.

 

John Edwards has 26 delegates to throw around, and he has yet to endorse a candidate. Plus the NC primary is looming.

 

There are 4049 Delegates total - 2025 are needed to win.

 

Then there are the FL and MI delegates, which were removed from the process, but may come back into play. I don't know how much they are worth.

 

Here is a possibility to consider. It may occur that even after all the states are done, AND all the supers have committed, that STILL, neither candidate makes 2025 - due to MI and FL. That's if they aren't re-done.

 

This has been your NSS delegate count update. Enjoy the madness.

 

If MI and FL are redone, or somehow seated, wouldn't that increase the number of delegates needed to win?

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QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 8, 2008 -> 11:07 PM)
Updated Delegate Scorecard for the Dems. This is assuming the delegate split in WY is 7-5 for Obama, though most other sites I've seen are predicting 8-4. Anyway, Obama leading by about 110 delegates total - 1570 to 1460. His lead in pledged delegates is 154. Currently, Clinton has 245 Supers, Obama has 201. That gap has been slowly closing.

 

There are 9 states and 2 US territories left to vote. They represent 599 pledged delegates.

 

There are 795 total superdelegates, of which 446 have endorsed a candidate already. That leaves 349 supers undetermined.

 

John Edwards has 26 delegates to throw around, and he has yet to endorse a candidate. Plus the NC primary is looming.

 

There are 4049 Delegates total - 2025 are needed to win.

 

Then there are the FL and MI delegates, which were removed from the process, but may come back into play. I don't know how much they are worth.

 

Here is a possibility to consider. It may occur that even after all the states are done, AND all the supers have committed, that STILL, neither candidate makes 2025 - due to MI and FL. That's if they aren't re-done.

This has been your NSS delegate count update. Enjoy the madness.

Obama's camp already conceded that they will not get to 2025.

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I just crunched some numbers:

I think we'll know who will be the nominee by May 6th. That is the day North Carolina and Indiana hold their primaries. If Obama and Clinton roughly split those states, Clinton would need to win 70-73% off the remaining delegates (West Virginia, Oregon, Kentucky, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, Montana).

 

Let me put it this way, if Clinton doesn't win Pennsylvania by at LEAST a 60-40 margin... games over.

 

(MI and FL not withstanding)

Edited by Athomeboy_2000
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