Sun-Times Takes a Look at 2008

[LVSoxFan]

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/wh...T-sox24.article

 

Interesting points--I guess they were there as it was being rained out so they talked to Thome for a while.

 

But really, it's a good one. What ARE we going to do for next year? Point being:

 

-Konerko: slowest man alive, but we love him

-A.J.: second slowest man alive

-Dye: damn is this guy slow on the basepath

-Owens: fast but can't hit; Richar: ?

-Pods: he gawn

-Uribe: either he gawn or if he stays, his hitting sucks and he's not a base-stealer

-Fields: like him although he seems more power than percentage

 

So barring some excellent hitting, fast-running additions (think: Ichiro types), why is 2008 not going to be this year all over again? Or 2004?

 

Granted Ozuna fits the bill, but will he start?

[TheBigHurt]

Owens can't hit? Hmm...

 

Otherwise, yeah, good point.

[LVSoxFan]

Did I goof on that?

 

I forget: is it Owens or Richar who can't hit out of the infield. BTW when I say "hit" I mean percentage. I love Josh Fields' power (what a badass!) but jury's still out on whether he will be an above-average hitter.

[Balta1701]

If Owens could steal 70 bases and Richar and Fields could each swipe 10-20...that makes your whole team seem an awful lot faster.

[Kalapse]

Did I goof on that?

 

I forget: is it Owens or Richar who can't hit out of the infield. BTW when I say "hit" I mean percentage. I love Josh Fields' power (what a badass!) but jury's still out on whether he will be an above-average hitter.

Richar is the one who draws walks and displays the occasional pop, Owens is the one who hits weak ground balls up the middle.

[Gregory Pratt]

If Owens could steal 70 bases and Richar and Fields could each swipe 10-20...that makes your whole team seem an awful lot faster.

 

You do that a lot. "If Gavin Floyd turned into a good pitcher," "If Owens could steal 70 bases," "If Owens develops the good eye he had in the [terrible] International League," "If" and "If" and "If" but they're all unlikely hypotheticals except for Fields + Richar stealing 10-20. Owens can't steal seventy, he won't even be on base enough to steal seventy bases. S'not gonna happen.

[Balta1701]

You do that a lot. "If Gavin Floyd turned into a good pitcher," "If Owens could steal 70 bases," "If Owens develops the good eye he had in the [terrible] International League," "If" and "If" and "If" but they're all unlikely hypotheticals except for Fields + Richar stealing 10-20. Owens can't steal seventy, he won't even be on base enough to steal seventy bases. S'not gonna happen.

Here's the other side...if these guys don't develop...if the only guy out of our system worth anything is Josh Fields...we're going to be in teh top 5 in the draft the next 5 years, because we don't have the money to spend to buy our way out of the problems created by a couple of failures. We don't have the money to spend to buy 2 OF's, a SS, 2 starting pitchers, a bullpen, and replacements for guys like Thome. So if we don't get anything out of these guys, if you're right...then the only thing worth considering is what we can get for trading away players and what we can get in the next few drafts, because if all of these guys bust, then we simply have nothing.

[LosMediasBlancas]

Oh, so suddenly this season Uribe can't hit huh?

Edited August 24, 2007 by LosMediasBlancas

[NorthSideSox72]

You do that a lot. "If Gavin Floyd turned into a good pitcher," "If Owens could steal 70 bases," "If Owens develops the good eye he had in the [terrible] International League," "If" and "If" and "If" but they're all unlikely hypotheticals except for Fields + Richar stealing 10-20. Owens can't steal seventy, he won't even be on base enough to steal seventy bases. S'not gonna happen.

Since his callup, Owens has 16 SB's (16 of 19, or 84%), through 44 games. Projected to a full season, that is about 58 steals. And, he seems to be getting better at stealing. So he is ALREADY stealing at a close to a 70-per-season rate, even though he has just started learning to hit major league pitching. Therefore, your comparison to Floyd (who has proven virtually nothing yet) is bogus.

 

Owens MAY not turn out to be anything. But if he can steal 58 bases at his current OBP, and he is at all capable of improving his OBP even marginally, then he could very well steal 70 bases. And besides, even 50 is a big number.

[Gregory Pratt]

Since his callup, Owens has 16 SB's (16 of 19, or 84%), through 44 games. Projected to a full season, that is about 58 steals. And, he seems to be getting better at stealing. So he is ALREADY stealing at a close to a 70-per-season rate, even though he has just started learning to hit major league pitching. Therefore, your comparison to Floyd (who has proven virtually nothing yet) is bogus.

 

Owens MAY not turn out to be anything. But if he can steal 58 bases at his current OBP, and he is at all capable of improving his OBP even marginally, then he could very well steal 70 bases. And besides, even 50 is a big number.

 

Umm, I didn't compare him to Floyd at all. I was addressing Balta about how he always posts the most positive but unrealistic hypotheticals such as when he said blank or blank. But that aside,

 

Owens will not steal 58 in a full season I don't care what total he's at now. And I don't he'll keep his current OBP forever or improve it even marginally. That's my prediction.

[NorthSideSox72]

Umm, I didn't compare him to Floyd at all. I was addressing Balta about how he always posts the most positive but unrealistic hypotheticals such as when he said blank or blank. But that aside,

 

Owens will not steal 58 in a full season I don't care what total he's at now. And I don't he'll keep his current OBP forever or improve it even marginally. That's my prediction.

You may turn out to be right. But his history suggests otherwise. He had a .365 OBP in A+, then a .393 in AA... got to AAA and had a .328 in 2006 (his first real struggle), but in his second year at AAA, it was up to .361. And note he made those moves up in 4 seasons, so its not like he spent 8 years getting there. Clearly, he has show he can meet new levels of picthing and improve. That's why my opinion is that given a full season, he will likely go more like .340 or .350, and then probably improve from there.

 

[Balta1701]

Umm, I didn't compare him to Floyd at all. I was addressing Balta about how he always posts the most positive but unrealistic hypotheticals such as when he said blank or blank. But that aside,

 

Owens will not steal 58 in a full season I don't care what total he's at now. And I don't he'll keep his current OBP forever or improve it even marginally. That's my prediction.

See, we're two different types of people...that's part of the problem. Some see the Sox as glass-half-empty, some see the Sox as glass-half-full....I see the Sox as Half glass full.

 

 

[Harry Chappas]

Umm, I didn't compare him to Floyd at all. I was addressing Balta about how he always posts the most positive but unrealistic hypotheticals such as when he said blank or blank. But that aside,

 

Owens will not steal 58 in a full season I don't care what total he's at now. And I don't he'll keep his current OBP forever or improve it even marginally. That's my prediction.

 

Jerry Owens and Josn Fields began playing baseball full time after Soxtalk was open for business. Both seem to be gamers and are geting better at-bats. They along with Ricar appear to be able to be servicable major league players. None of the three seem to be overmatched based on where they should be, which is AAA. They do not need to be All-Stars. The players that are paid to be All-Stars need to be, then this team will compete. Owens is a better player than Pods now and IN MY OPINION Fields is a better hitter now than Crede. They are going to get better the more they play.

 

[Gregory Pratt]

You may turn out to be right. But his history suggests otherwise. He had a .365 OBP in A+, then a .393 in AA... got to AAA and had a .328 in 2006 (his first real struggle), but in his second year at AAA, it was up to .361. And note he made those moves up in 4 seasons, so its not like he spent 8 years getting there. Clearly, he has show he can meet new levels of picthing and improve. That's why my opinion is that given a full season, he will likely go more like .340 or .350, and then probably improve from there.

 

Point stands, though, that the IL is very very bad and while minor league statistics of course are statistics to be looked at, my own eyes and recent history suggest that Owens' success in AAA and lower is probably just an aberration or more accurately a typical in baseball whereby a player can handle the minors but not the majors.

 

See, we're two different types of people...that's part of the problem. Some see the Sox as glass-half-empty, some see the Sox as glass-half-full....I see the Sox as Half glass full.

 

I don't see it as glass-half-empty because I want to or like negativity. I see it as half-glass-empty because I think it is and I'm not willing to delude myself into thinking that Gavin Floyd has a real shot at being anything resembling a good major league starting pitcher and probably not a good reliever, either. I'm unwilling to believe that KW has been a good GM since 2006 or before 2005, because of his mediocrity then, the state of our organization's scouting and coaching and his refusal to make moves in 2006 that could've benefitted us then and his refusal to sell anyone when they're at the peak of their value. I am unwilling to pretend that this lineup isn't slow and one-dimensional, that Owens is a good player or that I have faith in the aging Thome-Konerko-Dye trifecta. I don't believe that Crede will be back and do much as his 2006 was, IMO, a career year and he'll be coming off of serious back problems. I don't think that Garland's much better than league average or that he can be counted on for the next few years to be anything more than a little beneath league average. This bullpen is atrocious. And worst of all, we are f***ed if one of the good starters (either way) gets injured because we don't have anyone in the minors who could step in.

[Gregory Pratt]

Jerry Owens and Josn Fields began playing baseball full time after Soxtalk was open for business. Both seem to be gamers and are geting better at-bats. They along with Ricar appear to be able to be servicable major league players. None of the three seem to be overmatched based on where they should be, which is AAA. They do not need to be All-Stars. The players that are paid to be All-Stars need to be, then this team will compete. Owens is a better player than Pods now and IN MY OPINION Fields is a better hitter now than Crede. They are going to get better the more they play.

 

Where did I criticize Fields? Hell, it is true that I'm withholding judgement on him, to see where he is next year (and he needs to improve his mediocre defense), but I like him overall and have fair enough hopes. But Owens, nah. He's not good and shouldn't be leading off anything resembling a championship contender. I don't care how much of a "gamer" he is. We've been down that road before.

[witesoxfan]

I don't feel Owens is a good player, but I don't believe he has no shot at stealing 70 bases. Podsednik stole 70 bases in 2004 with a .314 OBP; Owens can be atleast just as good as a basestealer as Podsednik, and perhaps a better one. That means all he has to do is get on at about a .320-.330 clip and have a hell of a year stealing bases. That's not an out of this world number, and it's reachable for a 2nd or 3rd year player in the league, whether you hit .250 or .300.

[Gregory Pratt]

I don't feel Owens is a good player, but I don't believe he has no shot at stealing 70 bases. Podsednik stole 70 bases in 2004 with a .314 OBP; Owens can be atleast just as good as a basestealer as Podsednik, and perhaps a better one. That means all he has to do is get on at about a .320-.330 clip and have a hell of a year stealing bases. That's not an out of this world number, and it's reachable for a 2nd or 3rd year player in the league, whether you hit .250 or .300.

 

Haha, we'll see. But Podsednik was VERY good in 2004 and before.

[Balta1701]

Haha, we'll see. But Podsednik was VERY good in 2004 and before.

Pods hit .244 with a .313 OBP and .677 OPS in 04. He was, honestly, awful in 04, except every time he got on base he seemingly stole 2. He was significantly better in 05 pre injury, hit .290 with a .351. 03 was his really good year, where he hit .314 and put up an .822 OPS, just with only 43 steals.

[Gregory Pratt]

I meant good at getting reads, jumps and running that year, not hitting.

[RockRaines]

Well with Pratt's thinking, every team should sell off players at peak value, regardless of whether you want to make a run at competing at all. As long as you bring in more and more and more prospects that are highly rated.

 

Of course out of the last several WS champions I think maybe one had a young team of players before their primes or in their primes, the majority had veteran players playing a majoe role, but dont tell that to the spect lovers on this board. Cause we all KNOW that minor league scouting is the KEY to winning in the MLB.

[witesoxfan]

Well with Pratt's thinking, every team should sell off players at peak value, regardless of whether you want to make a run at competing at all. As long as you bring in more and more and more prospects that are highly rated.

 

Of course out of the last several WS champions I think maybe one had a young team of players before their primes or in their primes, the majority had veteran players playing a majoe role, but dont tell that to the spect lovers on this board. Cause we all KNOW that minor league scouting is the KEY to winning in the MLB.

 

You are slightly exaggerating, and I surely don't feel it is the key, but it is, currently, probably the most important aspect for this franchise winning in the long run. Perhaps 2-3 years from now, if the minor league system looks tenfold better, then the most important aspect can change. I'm just currently of the opinion that this team needs to look for a ton of changes before it can compete next year, and that's largely why I feel that scouting is the most important part.

[Gregory Pratt]

Well with Pratt's thinking, every team should sell off players at peak value, regardless of whether you want to make a run at competing at all. As long as you bring in more and more and more prospects that are highly rated.

 

Of course out of the last several WS champions I think maybe one had a young team of players before their primes or in their primes, the majority had veteran players playing a majoe role, but dont tell that to the spect lovers on this board. Cause we all KNOW that minor league scouting is the KEY to winning in the MLB.

 

You don't sell EVERYONE at peak value. Clearly, an organization needs some kind of core. Atlanta? Would never trade Chipper Jones. New York? Reyes, of course, is untouchable, and probably always will be. Rivera? Sizemore? Hell, Hafner? Us? I suppose we've got Konerko and Buehrle, but I for one would definitely trade Konerko, though I do hesitate because I worry about killing our franchise' fanbase. Not sure what to think, though, about whether or not the fans will keep on comign out year after year. But Garland? That was a no-brainer, IMO, and KW blew it. Garland at his peak value isn't Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine or Santana or Beckett or anyone that's very very very good that's going to bite you in the ass for years to come. Was Dye that kind of person? Probably not. But I definitely believe in trading veteran pieces away for younger, more exciting guys who you'll control for years. To do that, though, you've really got to trust your scouts and have good coaches.

[RockRaines]

You don't sell EVERYONE at peak value. Clearly, an organization needs some kind of core. Atlanta? Would never trade Chipper Jones. New York? Reyes, of course, is untouchable, and probably always will be. Rivera? Sizemore? Hell, Hafner? Us? I suppose we've got Konerko and Buehrle, but I for one would definitely trade Konerko, though I do hesitate because I worry about killing our franchise' fanbase. Not sure what to think, though, about whether or not the fans will keep on comign out year after year. But Garland? That was a no-brainer, IMO, and KW blew it. Garland at his peak value isn't Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine or Santana or Beckett or anyone that's very very very good that's going to bite you in the ass for years to come. Was Dye that kind of person? Probably not. But I definitely believe in trading veteran pieces away for younger, more exciting guys who you'll control for years. To do that, though, you've really got to trust your scouts and have good coaches.

So going into THIS season where you have just come out of back to back 90 win seasons and are looking at taking another good shot at the division title, which players do you fault KW for by not trading them at peak value? At this is before the season starts without putting any of their stats, injuries or prospect performance into the decision. Ok now go.

[Gregory Pratt]

Crede, Garland and Dye would've definitely been dealt, Podsednik wouldn't be back (nor would Erstad as anything but a bench player). What would the returns have been? Depends, and I have my opinions on what you could've gotten. I think Willits was a strong possibility in a package for Crede, but I'll decline to speculate on the others except to say that with their great value, I'm sure you could've picked up a bunch of things.

 

Oh, and Jack Cust = great pick-up for Oakland and wouldn't have hurt for us.

[Balta1701]

Joe Crede probably had an awful lot less value last offseason than you think...given that he was already following Boras's crew's advice on how to deal with his back instead of the advice of the team.

 

Dye...that one I could have understood, but the payback would have had to have been huge given the season he was coming off of.