Pennsylvania Primary Thread

[HuskyCaucasian]

Should be an interesting day.

[NorthSideSox72]

Predictions?

 

I'll go with...

 

Clinton, 53%

Obama, 46%

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

On February 7, an Obama campaign internal spreadsheet was leaked to the media. It showed the campaigns INTERNAL projections of how the primaries would turn out. Their projections started on Super Tuesday (Feb 5th) and ran all the way through the end of the primary season. It is UNCANNY in its accuracy and actually UNDER projected some Obama victories. What is uncanny is their Oho and Texas projections way back in early February. They projected a 53-46 loss in Ohio… they lost 54-44. They projected a 51-47 loss in Texas… they lost 51-47. In Penn, they projected a 52-47 loss.

 

I am projecting a 52-46 loss. It might be 51-47 IF the youth vote is massive.

Edited April 22, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[SoxFan562004]

What have you guys heard about the margin Clinton needs to realistically have any hypothetical chance? I've heard at least double digit, but I've heard as high as 20%. Drudge had an article saying internal Clinton docs show their projections at 11, which seems like a number that would just keep her lingering around. If the projections you guys are citing are accurate than, from what I understand it's more over than it is now.

 

How will the party handle it if she wins, but only by 5-9%? Will Dean or someone have a "come to jesus" talk with her or put pressure through the public?

 

My personal opinion is she wins by enough to hang around and drag it out, so I'll go with 12%

[HuskyCaucasian]

Five things to watch in Pennsylvania

 

• Check for turnout at 1 p.m. By this point Tuesday, the campaigns should have a good sense of what kind of outcome to expect. They will look first to Philadelphia, where a crush of voters early in the day will bode well for Obama and badly for Clinton since it will signal that he could win the big margin he needs to take out of the city.

• Don’t be fooled by early results. The cities and suburbs usually report their returns first, which gives the candidate favored in those areas a quick – and sometimes fleeting – lead. The conservative-leaning small towns through the center of the state usually filter in much later in the evening.

• Follow the undecideds. For weeks, the campaigns have been trying to convince a stubborn group of undecided voters – an average of nine percent in polls released Monday – to make up their minds. Voters who decide late usually go with the candidate who represents something new, potentially giving the edge to Obama. But in this Democratic primary season, voters who have decided in the last three days have more often broken in Clinton’s favor.

• Watch these towns and neighborhoods. While the campaigns are reluctant to disclose the places they will be looking at, here are some key precincts, wards and towns that unaffiliated Pennsylvania political strategists say they will be monitoring. The best indicator of the level of Obama support among younger voters—a group pollsters worry may not have been captured in recent surveys—will be turnout in places like State College, home to Penn State University’s main campus, or the precincts around smaller schools like Muhlenberg College in Allentown.

• Key counties to keep an eye on. In order for Clinton to win a decisive victory of 10 points or more, she needs to win two-thirds of the votes in a group of eight industrial-oriented counties, each of which has 55,000 or more registered Democrats. Those counties are Lackawanna (Scranton) and Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) in the Northeast, Erie in the Northwest, Cambria County (Johnstown), and the Pittsburgh-area counties of Westmoreland, Fayette, Beaver, and Washington. In south central Pennsylvania, which got lots of attention from both candidates, Lancaster and Adams counties will provide a glimpse into Obama’s popularity with newly-registered Democrats. Though these areas have traditionally elected Republicans, they’ve experienced significant growth as affluent residents have moved in from Baltimore, D.C. and southeastern Pennsylvania.

[HuskyCaucasian]

What have you guys heard about the margin Clinton needs to realistically have any hypothetical chance?

Here is the breakdown via Chuck Todd of MSNBC and something I thought before i heard it this morning...

• Obama wins: Clinton out by the end of the week
• Clinton by 1-5%: Similar to above, but Clinton can fight on in the face of calls for her to get out
• Clinton by 6-10%: Fight lives on until at least NC/IN in 2 weeks
• Clinton by 11-15%: Things get interesting, but odds are still against her
• Clinton by 16+%: She's in the fight all the way with a real chance to win, but still unlikely

[Texsox]

I'd like to see numbers on who the GOP is supporting in the Dem primary and to what degree. My guess is Clinton, and they are probably mobilizing for a big turnout. They could be the swing votes in the Dem nomination.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Obama's Road Map to an Upset

 

1. Win the city of Philadelphia by a 75% to 25 margin. Philadelphia is Obama country and Pennsylvania's most populous urban center. If he can run up the score there and minimize his losses elsewhere, Clinton will be unable to get the big win she needs.
2. Win the Philadelphia suburbs by at least a 55% to 45 margin. While working class white voters comprise a significant proportion of the populous, there are also colleges and coffee shops. Voters are on average better educated and unapologetically progressive - two variables which weigh in Obama's favor.
3. Turnout the youth vote. Much has been said about Pennsylvania's older, blue-collar population. It is the ultimate obstacle between Obama and an upset. However, over 380,000 new voters have registered Democratic to vote in today's primary, a substantial proportion of which are converts and collegians. 62 percent of these new Democratic voters support Obama. If these voters turn out, Obama is in good shape.

[HuskyCaucasian]

MSNBC is reporting major voting machine problems in Philly and especially in African American areas.

 

UH OH!

 

Update: A PA official came on MSNBC and was darn near irate that there were suggestions that there were still problems. He said that there was a few problems earlier, but they have been corrected.

Edited April 22, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000

[SoxFan562004]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/22/pa.primary/index.html

 

FWIW the CNN "Poll of Polls" shows Clinton with a 9% lead and 7% undecided. So, using this poll, she needs to sweep the entire 7% to have a pulse. I'll stick with my 12% for PA and Obama finishes it in 2 weeks

[Texsox]

It's going to the convention.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Reports that in one "republican" district a lot of republicans had switched and voted for Clinton.

[BigSqwert]

Reports that in one "republican" district a lot of republicans had switched and voted for Clinton.

I hope the local Democrats running for office in that district win because of this.

[StrangeSox]

I hope the local Democrats running for office in that district win because of this.

 

Why would that be the case? They'll still vote R in the general.

[mr_genius]

I'd like to see numbers on who the GOP is supporting in the Dem primary and to what degree. My guess is Clinton, and they are probably mobilizing for a big turnout. They could be the swing votes in the Dem nomination.

 

it's a closed primary.

[BigSqwert]

Why would that be the case? They'll still vote R in the general.

Hey you're right. Didn't think that one through all the way.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Hey you're right. Didn't think that one through all the way.

I expected better form you. I am shamed. lol jk

[southsider2k5]

Reports that in one "republican" district a lot of republicans had switched and voted for Clinton.

 

The Dems have to be kicking themselves for ever giving the GOP that idea during the Michigan primaries.

[kapkomet]

The Dems have to be kicking themselves for ever giving the GOP that idea during the Michigan primaries.

Uh huh. Then, though, it was ok.

 

[HuskyCaucasian]

Uh huh. Then, though, it was ok.

It's never ok. But let's not get into THAT debate again. lol

[mr_genius]

Reports that in one "republican" district a lot of republicans had switched and voted for Clinton.

 

 

i'm sure that 1/20th of 1% of the primary voters, who are Republicans and went to the trouble of registering Dem just to vote for Hillary Clinton, is going to make the difference.

Edited April 22, 2008 by mr_genius

[Texsox]

 

i'm sure that 1/20th of 1% of the primary voters, who are Republicans and went to the trouble of registering Dem just to vote for Hillary Clinton, is going to make the difference.

 

I wonder what system they have to "register" if it is "trouble". IN Illinois and Texas, it is a matter of announcing which ballot you want. Same effort all around. Do you have to fill something out in advance, or take another step in Penn?

[HuskyCaucasian]

I wonder what system they have to "register" if it is "trouble". IN Illinois and Texas, it is a matter of announcing which ballot you want. Same effort all around. Do you have to fill something out in advance, or take another step in Penn?

You have to register as a Dem or Rep when you register to vote. Registration closed a while back. So, you cant change the day of.

[HuskyCaucasian]

We will know the winner of the Pennsylvania Primary the moment the polls close. More to come....

[mr_genius]

I wonder what system they have to "register" if it is "trouble". IN Illinois and Texas, it is a matter of announcing which ballot you want. Same effort all around. Do you have to fill something out in advance, or take another step in Penn?

 

they would have to register before hand, 30 days before the election I believe. you can't just walk in and be like "I'm a Democrat now!" on the day of the election in Penn.