The Republican Thread

[farmteam]

But then I appeal the ruling, presumably to the 7th. How could my conviction possibly stand at that point?

 

I understand and agree with the intent of staying the ruling, I just wonder what would actually happen if you were to violate current law that will undoubtedly be unconstitutional in the near future. Maybe that hassle of still having to go through the courts would be enough of a deterrent for all but the most hard-headed bozos.

Since you're asking about practical effects, just want to point out that since in your hypothetical you would be violating an Illinois state law, your case would go through the state courts. So, the appeal would not go to the 7th (it would only do that if it originated in a federal district court within the 7th circuit), but would go to an Illinois Appellate Court. There are always some weird jurisdictional nuances (what with certification and interlocutory appeals, among others) so that may not be 100% right, but that's generally how it would work.

[Balta1701]

This probably doesn't belong in here, but...

 

Dick Lugars farewell speech.

[mr_genius]

This probably doesn't belong in here, but...

 

Dick Lugars farewell speech.

 

bye

[Balta1701]

Senator Michael Crapo (R, ID, Yes that's his real name) arrested for DUI last night in Virginia.

[Balta1701]

Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL) returned to the Senate today for the first time since suffering a stroke last year.

[Jake]

First bill of 113th Congress introduced by House GOP: Repeal Obamacare

 

Sandy victims and women be damned!

[EvilMonkey]

First bill of 113th Congress introduced by House GOP: Repeal Obamacare

 

Sandy victims and women be damned!

The world doesn't revolve around NY and NJ. Surprised you didn't throw 'children' into the mix as well. They had a Sandy bill up. Half of it was pork, so it got turned down. Then the NY/NJ contingent proceeded to eat their own in selfish rants about how they are being ignored, when they know full well that if it ws a bill for relief in Texas or Idaho that had that much pork in it, they too would be asking lots of questions.

[StrangeSox]

Right, the world revolves around the 34th installment of "REPEAL OBAMACARE!" and also letting the VAWA expire

[Reddy]

The world doesn't revolve around NY and NJ. Surprised you didn't throw 'children' into the mix as well. They had a Sandy bill up. Half of it was pork, so it got turned down. Then the NY/NJ contingent proceeded to eat their own in selfish rants about how they are being ignored, when they know full well that if it ws a bill for relief in Texas or Idaho that had that much pork in it, they too would be asking lots of questions.

 

Nope, the world doesn't revolve around NY and NJ, but when Katrina and Joplin victims got money immediately and we're still waiting? That's a little messed up. You don't think so? Or is this what we get for being blue states?

Edited January 4, 2013 by Reddy

[southsideirish71]

Nope, the world doesn't revolve around NY and NJ, but when Katrina and Joplin victims got money immediately and we're still waiting? That's a little messed up. You don't think so? Or is this what we get for being blue states?

 

So it would be okay if we passed the following bill because the front cover of it read Aid and Sandy.

 

 

Resolution for Quick and Immediate Aid for the Victims of Superstorm Sandy

 

Article 1. ) 75 million in aid to X.

Article 2.) 100 million in aid to Y.

 

Addendum 7083d.) 4 F-35 Jets for overwatch.

 

 

 

 

Because here is some of the pork that was part of the bill...

 

 

•$2 million to repair damage to the roofs of museums in Washington, D.C., while many in Hurricane Sandy’s path still have no roof over their own heads.

 

•$150 million for fisheries as far away from the storm’s path as Alaska.

 

•$125 million for the Department of Agriculture’s Emergency Watershed Protection program, which helps restore watersheds damaged by wildfires and drought.

 

•$20 million for a nationwide Water Resources Priorities Study.

 

•$15 million for NASA facilities, though NASA itself has called its damage from the hurricane ‘minimal.’

 

•$50 million in subsidies for tree planting on private properties.

 

•$336 million for taxpayer-supported AMTRAK without any detailed plan for how the money will be spent.

 

•$5.3 billion for the Army Corps of Engineers – more than the Corps’ annual budget – with no statement of priorities about how to spend the money.

 

•$12.9 billion for future disaster mitigation activities and studies, without identifying a single way to pay for it.

Edited January 4, 2013 by southsideirish71

[Jake]

The world also doesn't revolve around women. They didn't have to vote yes, but instead they didn't vote at all. The larger point is even if there is a legitimate problem with a bill like the Sandy, they are completely wasting their time trying to f*** with Obamacare yet again. I encourage you all to contact your representatives like I did today to let them know that we don't mind them pushing their ideology, but we do mind when they waste our time.

[Reddy]

So it would be okay if we passed the following bill because the front cover of it read Aid and Sandy.

 

 

Resolution for Quick and Immediate Aid for the Victims of Superstorm Sandy

 

Article 1. ) 75 million in aid to X.

Article 2.) 100 million in aid to Y.

 

Addendum 7083d.) 4 F-35 Jets for overwatch.

 

 

 

 

Because here is some of the pork that was part of the bill...

 

 

•$2 million to repair damage to the roofs of museums in Washington, D.C., while many in Hurricane Sandy’s path still have no roof over their own heads.

 

•$150 million for fisheries as far away from the storm’s path as Alaska.

 

•$125 million for the Department of Agriculture’s Emergency Watershed Protection program, which helps restore watersheds damaged by wildfires and drought.

 

•$20 million for a nationwide Water Resources Priorities Study.

 

•$15 million for NASA facilities, though NASA itself has called its damage from the hurricane ‘minimal.’

 

•$50 million in subsidies for tree planting on private properties.

 

•$336 million for taxpayer-supported AMTRAK without any detailed plan for how the money will be spent.

 

•$5.3 billion for the Army Corps of Engineers – more than the Corps’ annual budget – with no statement of priorities about how to spend the money.

 

•$12.9 billion for future disaster mitigation activities and studies, without identifying a single way to pay for it.

 

most of that sounds pretty good!

 

also there's pork in every bill that's ever been passed ever.

 

[Cknolls]

So it would be okay if we passed the following bill because the front cover of it read Aid and Sandy.

 

 

Resolution for Quick and Immediate Aid for the Victims of Superstorm Sandy

 

Article 1. ) 75 million in aid to X.

Article 2.) 100 million in aid to Y.

 

Addendum 7083d.) 4 F-35 Jets for overwatch.

 

 

 

 

Because here is some of the pork that was part of the bill...

 

 

•$2 million to repair damage to the roofs of museums in Washington, D.C., while many in Hurricane Sandy’s path still have no roof over their own heads.

 

•$150 million for fisheries as far away from the storm’s path as Alaska.

 

•$125 million for the Department of Agriculture’s Emergency Watershed Protection program, which helps restore watersheds damaged by wildfires and drought.

 

•$20 million for a nationwide Water Resources Priorities Study.

 

•$15 million for NASA facilities, though NASA itself has called its damage from the hurricane ‘minimal.’

 

•$50 million in subsidies for tree planting on private properties.

 

•$336 million for taxpayer-supported AMTRAK without any detailed plan for how the money will be spent.

 

•$5.3 billion for the Army Corps of Engineers – more than the Corps’ annual budget – with no statement of priorities about how to spend the money.

 

•$12.9 billion for future disaster mitigation activities and studies, without identifying a single way to pay for it.

 

 

It's called investing. LOL....one addendum to this bill should be mandatory disaster insurance for any loon that wants to rebuild on or near the ocean. Taxpayers should not foot the bill for the stupidity of people to build houses so close to water.

[southsider2k5]

It's called investing. LOL....one addendum to this bill should be mandatory disaster insurance for any loon that wants to rebuild on or near the ocean. Taxpayers should not foot the bill for the stupidity of people to build houses so close to water.

 

Since the government has now become the mitigator of disaster, it should be the people who choose to live in dangerous zones of the country (flood, hurricane, tornado, earthquake, etc) who subsidize their own dangerous lifestyles.

[Balta1701]

Since the government has now become the mitigator of disaster, it should be the people who choose to live in dangerous zones of the country (flood, hurricane, tornado, earthquake, etc) who subsidize their own dangerous lifestyles.

The people who live on the waterfront are pretty wealthy. If we make them pay for their own insurance, they'll get angry and take their job-creating skills elsewhere.

[southsider2k5]

The people who live on the waterfront are pretty wealthy. If we make them pay for their own insurance, they'll get angry and take their job-creating skills elsewhere.

 

If they haven't already fled because of the "You're Alive" tax...

[mr_genius]

The people who live on the waterfront are pretty wealthy....we make them pay for their own insurance

 

Balta, they are entitled to that money. Stop being unreasonable

[mr_genius]

Since the government has now become the mitigator of disaster, it should be the people who choose to live in dangerous zones of the country (flood, hurricane, tornado, earthquake, etc) who subsidize their own dangerous lifestyles.

 

unacceptable. they are entitled to free stuff. end of discussion.

Edited January 4, 2013 by mr_genius

[BigSqwert]

Since the government has now become the mitigator of disaster, it should be the people who choose to live in dangerous zones of the country (flood, hurricane, tornado, earthquake, etc) who subsidize their own dangerous lifestyles.

Which parts of the country are not prone to disaster? Tornadoes happen in a heck of a lot of states, earthquakes in all of the west coast states and the midwest (New Madrid fault), hurricanes along the south and east, and flooding in a number of places as well.

[Y2HH]

Which parts of the country are not prone to disaster? Tornadoes happen in a heck of a lot of states, earthquakes in all of the west coast states and the midwest (New Madrid fault), hurricanes along the south and east, and flooding in a number of places as well.

 

Shouldn't say "not prone" but "less prone".

 

The problem is, and most people seem to ignore this, is that I guarantee it's infinity cheaper for me to insure my home in Chicago, than is for someone to insure a home of equal value in one of these disaster zones.

 

The New Madrid fault is probably the most dangerous fault line in the US, however, it's SO dormant, it baffles scientists as to why it hardly moves anymore. Average fault lines move like 1-2 inches a year...the new Madrid moves like 0.14 inches, which is uncommon. My numbers could be off on that, because I'm repeating from memory, but they're probably not far off. The New Madrid is so dormant, insurance companies don't even consider it a risk at this point.

[Balta1701]

Shouldn't say "not prone" but "less prone".

 

The problem is, and most people seem to ignore this, is that I guarantee it's infinity cheaper for me to insure my home in Chicago, than is for someone to insure a home of equal value in one of these disaster zones.

 

The New Madrid fault is probably the most dangerous fault line in the US, however, it's SO dormant, it baffles scientists as to why it hardly moves anymore. Average fault lines move like 1-2 inches a year...the new Madrid moves like 0.14 inches, which is uncommon. My numbers could be off on that, because I'm repeating from memory, but they're probably not far off. The New Madrid is so dormant, insurance companies don't even consider it a risk at this point.

Do you really want me to go after this? I'll need to get to it tomorrow since I have an eyeglass appointment today, but seriously I can go into it if people would like.

[StrangeSox]

do it

[Y2HH]

Do you really want me to go after this? I'll need to get to it tomorrow since I have an eyeglass appointment today, but seriously I can go into it if people would like.

 

Yes.

[farmteam]

Do you really want me to go after this? I'll need to get to it tomorrow since I have an eyeglass appointment today, but seriously I can go into it if people would like.

Ooh yes, I like Balta lessons. It's like Mr. Rogers, but smarter and on Soxtalk.

[Balta1701]

Shouldn't say "not prone" but "less prone".

 

The problem is, and most people seem to ignore this, is that I guarantee it's infinity cheaper for me to insure my home in Chicago, than is for someone to insure a home of equal value in one of these disaster zones.

 

The New Madrid fault is probably the most dangerous fault line in the US, however, it's SO dormant, it baffles scientists as to why it hardly moves anymore. Average fault lines move like 1-2 inches a year...the new Madrid moves like 0.14 inches, which is uncommon. My numbers could be off on that, because I'm repeating from memory, but they're probably not far off. The New Madrid is so dormant, insurance companies don't even consider it a risk at this point.

Ok. Lotsa issues to deal with here. First, use centimeters, it's so much nicer.

 

Anyway, you're correct in several important ways, but fault systems like New Madrid are so complex its hard to say exactly what things matter.

 

The San Andreas fault moves along at about 3-4 centimeters per year. It's a very well defined system along a plate boundary. Generally, if you do the same math you do here and say "how long does it take about 5 meters to build up", you get an answer of about 100 years, which would give you a 100 year recurrence interval. (By the way, 1906...107 years ago, and 1857 was the last quake on the middle section of the San Andreas just north of L.A.).

 

Unfortunately, the Earth never works this way, even when it seems to be simple. Give you a few examples. The Southern Section of the San Andreas, down by San Diego, hasn't broken in over 300 years. Honestly, it doesn't make sense why it hasn't. There should have been enough motion on that section to produce several large earthquakes. A good rule of thumb in geology, I've found, is that once you calculate a recurrence interval for a fault...you'll find that the fault is overdue by a factor of 4.

 

The other complicated thing that happens...not all the motion between the 2 plates happens on the San Andreas. About 20% of the motion winds up absorbed by North America. It's created a series of faults around L.A. and out through the Mojave desert, that are on their own capable of producing large earthquakes. 2 of them happened in the 1990's, Landers and Hector mine, both magnitude ~7 earthquakes.

 

So, when things are moving, they don't necessarily move simply. You can build up stress on many different faults close in next to each other, and that motion can be released in complicated patterns that are impossible to predict.

 

So, to New Madrid. Its not at a plate boundary, so right away we have a problem, because that means the motion is much harder to figure out. It's probably being driven by the rocks nearby relaxing after the last ice sheet's weight was removed (think of it like a pillow on your couch popping back up after you stand up). Everything's trying to move upwards, but some parts have to move upwards more than others. In a couch cushion that's easy, in real rocks, it's hard, because rocks are hard to break.

 

If we do that same math, 1 cm a year, gives a recurrence interval of 500 years for a 5 meter displacement. That actually doesn't work that badly, there's good evidence for earthquakes at abour 1450, 900, and 300 a.d. (give or take 50-100 years on the dates). Prior to that though, we lose some of the record, but everyone seems to find a big swarm at around 2350 b.c.

 

But think about this...if the Southern San Andreas is 3x overdue, then doesn't that mean there would need to be 2-3 quakes, at some point, to make up the difference?

 

These systems are messy. It's been 200 years since the last swarm. It could be another day, it could be another 200 years. The best way to talk about these winds up being in terms of probability. The numbers I see say, for example, the southern San Andreas ought to go within 50 years, so there's about a 2% chance per year of it being the year. New Madrid ought to go within the next 500 years, so maybe there's a 0.1-0.5% chance of it going per year, if things work that way. That means it's 1/4-1/20 as likely to go as the southern san andreas. That's still a fairly substantial risk...and it's hard to do that math better.

 

Since we don't have a complete record of every quake, there could have been a 2000 year gap in there that we haven't been able to measure. Or, movement could be particularly fast right now because of how the surface is adjusting to the ice removal.

 

In terms of the insurance though, the area itself is much worse than L.A. The area around New Madrid is flat and old crust. Remember how that small East Coast earthquake was felt in canada, 1000's of km away? Old, slow crust translates energy through it much easier than broken up materials like L.A. So, a New Madrid quake will cause damage over a much larger area.

 

Furthermore, the material around those sites (St. Louis, Memphis) is all river sediments. River sediments are terribly weak under earthquake stresses (they're the materials that undergo liquefaction). They shift all over the place and lose their strength. L.A. has other problems, but Structure collapse will be a much more major issue if the New Madrid area goes. Roads, buildings, infrastructure will take a major hit over a very wide area. That's in addition to the fact that L.A. has simply built their buildings to a higher standard than New Madrid.

 

So yeah, there's still a substantial earthquake risk in the heart of this country. It's probably comparable to the risk facing Seattle or Portland. L.A. is more likely, Seattle/Portland would be more powerful at the source but weaker once it hit the cities, New Madrid would be particularly devastating to structures because of what the area is made of.