Leadoff/2nd hitter in lineup discussion

[SouthsideDon48]

Hey everyone, I started a new thread because I didn't want being back an old thread from a page or two back.

 

I've been thinking the past couple days about the Sox lineup because it seems that, unless we get someone from outside the organization, that we'll be more than lilely having a BA/Wise platoon in CF with each getting starts based on righty/lefty pitching.

 

Anyway, I was thinking that the Sox should probably take a slightly unconventional route with utilizing BA/Wise in the line-up, and here's 4 different line-up ideas that's been bugging my mind the last couple days, with a little reasoning for why I plugged them where I did...

 

With BA in the lineup...

 

Scenario 1:

1. Getz

2. Fields

3. Quentin

4. Dye

5. Thome

6. Konerko

7. Alexei

8. AJ

9. BA

 

*I can't help but think if BA is in the lineup that Ozzie would have AJ bat 2nd and BA 9th, but I actually think if BA hits 9th that Fields should hit 2nd behind Getz. Fields would likely see better pitches to hit with Quentin batting behind him, and Getz seems like the best lead-off hitter. With this line-up, the chances of having 2 guys on base for Quentin is very good, and it also keeps Alexei further down in the lineup where he can bring in rbi's as well. However, plugging in Anderson in the 9-hole is sort of an easy out for other teams, which leads me to scenario 2...

 

BA in line-up, scenario 2:

 

1. Getz

2. BA

3. Quentin

4. Dye

5. Thome,

6. Konerko

7. Alexei

8. AJ

9. Fields

 

*Here, BA and Fields switch places. Now the 9-hole won't be as easy of an out for other teams, and by plugging BA in the #2 spot, he can be the one to benefit with better pitches due to Quentin being behind him and the Sox should have him focus more on "moving the baserunner over" rather than trying to be a hero with a hit. By putting BA in the 2-hole, and if Getz gets on base, just have BA move Getz along with a bunt half the time and a base-hit attempt the other half, if he gets on base, great, but if he moves the runner over in a sacrifice without creating 2 outs, then that's just as good. I personally think that BA would be a better hitter if he's told to just move the guy along rather than trying to score them. Many people will probably hate this idea because they don't believe in giving up outs, but sometimes you gotta give up a gambit to win like in chess.

 

Scenario 3: Wise in lineup

 

1. Wise

2. Getz

3. Quentin

4. Dye

5. Thome

6. Konerko

7. Alexei

8. AJ

9. Fields

 

*If Wise is in the line-up, this is what Ozzie is probably more than likely to do. I don't really have too much of a problem with it because Wise would only be getting half the starts if he was in a platoon with BA anyway. This would also give the Sox some speed in the top of the order and Getz would benefit from seeing better pitches with Quentin batting behind him.

 

 

Scenario 4, Wise in lineup:

 

1. Getz

2. Wise

3. Quentin

4. Dye

5. Thome

6. Konerko

7. Alexei

8. AJ

9. Fields

 

*However, since I think Getz is the better batter, why not flip Getz and Wise? Put Getz at lead-off and pot Wise in the position where he can see better pitches due to Quentin batting behind him. Plus, Wise can also be told to just "move the baserunner over" if Getz is on base. The awesome thing with Wise batting 2nd with Getz on base is that Wise would be quick enough to get a bunt-single for a base hit, which would put 2 baserunners on base for Quentin and utilize Wise's speed in the best way possible, despite being unconventional.

 

What does everyone else think?

[NorthSideSox72]

1. Getz

2. Alexei

 

 

 

 

9. Centerfielder

 

[justBLAZE]

1. Getz

2. Alexei

 

 

 

 

9. Centerfielder

 

This.

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=70470

Edited March 24, 2009 by tommy

[ILMOU]

What does everyone else think?

 

Good analysis. I don't really mind Fields in the two hole, since he's making an effort to be more patient this spring.

 

What I've heard a ton on this site, and don't understand, however, is the idea that Lexi needs to be down in the order to get RBI's. This is the AL, and if the bottom three in the order (perhaps AJ, Fields, BA) perform as I expect them to, he'll get plenty of RBI opps. plus the increased chances with more PA's and faster runners (BA, Fields, Getz) on base in front of him, vs. Thome, Dye and Konerko last year.

 

Robin Ventura knocked in 100 runs in '91, mostly from the 2-hole. Robin drew many more walks, Lexi will steal some bases, but otherwise their numbers are very similar. I also believe that the extra situational responsibilities that come with the 2 hole will help his patience, and he's smart enough to make the adjustments.

 

I'll continue to beat the dead horse that we don't need to platoon the leadoff position if Getz is the guy. His splits are virtually identical.

[ILMOU]

*If Wise is in the line-up, this is what Ozzie is probably more than likely to do. I don't really have too much of a problem with it because Wise would only be getting half the starts if he was in a platoon with BA anyway.

 

Wise would get ~3/4 of the AB's, because ~75% of starters are right handed. That's too many AB's for that guy.

 

[whitesoxfan101]

I cannot stand the idea of platooning the leadoff spot, especially considering Getz will put up similar numbers to the platoon we're talking about in Anderson and Wise anyways. I know we don't want to put pressure on Chris, but this isn't a perfect situation and I just wish we'd give him the keys and let Alexei hit 2nd (like somebody else said, this is the AL and he'll get his RBI chances no matter where he hits.)

[lostfan]

1. Getz

2. Alexei

 

 

 

 

9. Centerfielder

That's my exact thought. I really really don't want any of the CFs on this team leading off, platoon or not. But I think I'd want either Alexei or Getz there for their contact ability. Neither is ideal - although Getz could be eventually - but that's the best fit from this roster IMO.

[caulfield12]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...ul+Konerko& amp;OBA5=+0.344&Slug5=+0.438&Player6=AJ+Pierzynski&OBA6=+0.312&Slug6=+0.416&Player7=Josh+Fields&OBA7=+0.334&Slug7=+0.433&Player8=Chris+Getz&OBA8=+0.361&Slug8=+0.381&Model=0

 

 

You guys will all have a lot of fun with this tool.

 

The best line-up I could come up with produced 5.638 runs per game, or 913 over a full major league season.

 

Realistically, the best line-up that's also realistic for the White Sox is the one that produced 5.634 runs per game.

 

1. Beckham, SS (I projected him to .350 OBP and Alexei's .475 SLG from last year, still a fairly conservative .825 OPS)

2. Carlos Quentin, LF

3. Paul Konerko, 1B

4. Jermaine Dye, RF

5. Jim Thome, DH

6. Alexei Ramirez, CF (splitting up the two lefties with Alisay, although you could flip Fields and AJ I guess)

7. Josh Fields, 3B (based on average minor league numbers)

8. AJ Pierzynski, C

9. Chris Getz, 2B (based on average minor league numbers)

 

Every formula I ran had the most runs scored with AJ and Getz as 8 and 9, bottom of the order.

 

One other interesting statistical finding: If you use their career MAJOR league numbers, Brian Anderson comes out with a SLIGHT advantage over Jerry Owens and both are about .02 ahead of Dewayne Wise. The advantage is even bigger if you use BA's minor league numbers, and, once again, doesn't take into account defensive ability, which would obviously favor Anderson as well.

 

 

Play around and find a line-up that can beat mine...also, you can have fun putting in Figgins, Brian Roberts, Orlando Hudson, Furcal, Dunn, Abreu, etc.

 

It's a pretty neat line-up tool and makes for interesting discussion.

 

FINAL NOTE: For all the Brian Anderson fans out there, I did this for you. I VERY GENEROUSLY AVERAGED his major and minor league numbers (.3205 OBP, .4265 SLG, .747 OPS, Torii Hunter, Jr.) and put him out there with Alexei and Beckham in the middle infield BUT the Getz 2B, Beckham SS and Alexei in CF version still won 5.634-5.638 to 5.571 RPG.

In order for BA/Beckham/Ramirez to win, he has to save/prevent 10 1/2 runs per season on defense compared to the Ramirez/Beckham/Getz version. I think you could make that argument, with Anderson over Alexei in CF, Ramirez over Beckham at SS and Beckham over Getz at 2B.

 

That line-up, the one we've just begun to embrace as White Sox fans, would score 902.5 runs in a season.

 

Of course, that's all predicated on BA getting a .747 OPS in everyday play against tough righties and not just favorable match-ups, which is FAR from a sure thing.

Edited March 24, 2009 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/Lin...381&Model=0

 

 

I went back and did this using BA in the line-up, with Thome's and JD's White Sox averages for the last three seasons, Konerko's career average, Quentin's 2008 season (along with Alexei) and "averaged" BA and Fields in terms of minor and major league numbers (Fields might be underestimated, BA overestimated at this point) and then just projected Getz based on minor league averages.

 

5.770 runs per game (935 runs in one season)

 

1. Jim Thome

2. Carlos Quentin

3. Fields

4. JD

5. Paul Konerko

6. Alexei Ramirez

7. AJ

8. Brian Anderson

9. Getz

 

Everytime you run these simulations, you have Getz/AJ/Anderson as the bottom 3 in some way, shape or form.

 

You could also make an argument that Thome and Quentin should be flip-flopped due to Quentin's better overall speed on the basepaths.

Edited March 24, 2009 by caulfield12

[Cali]

A few things:

 

Getz should be leading off. I do not get why Ozzie is tentative about putting the pressure on him there when the other leading candidates Wise/Owens (or even BA/Fields if you believe that) have exactly HOW much more experience in the big leagues and in that lead off spot?

 

And does anyone else cringe at the word "Platoon"? It seriously pisses me off. It smacks of amateurism. We really can't find one guy who can take the job permanently? Who can hit a guy who throws with either hand? Really?

 

 

 

[daa84]

supposedly right now the favorites are getz to leadoff against RHP and anderson vs. LHP...more proof that ozzie never looks at stat sheets as getz has actually been better in his career vs. lefties

[caulfield12]

Anderson leading off won't last for very long anyways.

 

As far as the comment earlier about "platoon" situations, there are obviously going to be some players like Beckham and Viciedo that would face all hitting when they come up.

 

Others, like Anderson and maybe we'll see it with Fields/Betemit (Wilson facing the toughest righties), Wise/Owens etc., it's just about putting young players in the best position to succeed and gain some confidence. Well, in the case of Owens/Wise, it's simply maximizing your OBP and SLG.

 

But being a platoon player is like the "utility player" kiss of death, unless you're Mark DeRosa. Getz or someone like Aviles on the Royals will fight against it every season of their careers, just like Aaron Rowand did at the beginning of his career.

[BearSox]

You have no idea how much I hate computer generated numbers/stats/records (even though BP nailed the Sox right on the head in 07).

[daggins]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17...-your-lineup-by

 

Taking a gander at this, i'd probably make the lineup something like

 

1. Getz

2. Quentin

3. Thome

4. Dye

5. Konerko

6. Alexei

7. AJ

8. Anderson

9. Fields

 

With Fields at 9 to help out the top of the order.

 

It's hard to say Getz will be one of our best 3 hitters, but no one on the team fills the criteria better than him.

[knightni]

Welcome to Soxtalk!

[daggins]

Welcome to Soxtalk!

 

thanks. I appreciate the "but it was a damn good post!" byline there.

[BobDylan]

1. Beckham, SS (I projected him to .350 OBP and Alexei's .475 SLG from last year, still a fairly conservative .825 OPS)

2. Carlos Quentin, LF

3. Paul Konerko, 1B

4. Jermaine Dye, RF

5. Jim Thome, DH

6. Alexei Ramirez, CF (splitting up the two lefties with Alisay, although you could flip Fields and AJ I guess)

7. Josh Fields, 3B (based on average minor league numbers)

8. AJ Pierzynski, C

9. Chris Getz, 2B (based on average minor league numbers)

 

I actually like that line-up a lot, I'd do the 3-4-5 as Dye, Thome, Konerko

[caulfield12]

You have no idea how much I hate computer generated numbers/stats/records (even though BP nailed the Sox right on the head in 07).

 

Many computers but very few managers (Korea's Kim is a lot like Ozzie, more gut/instincts) would have pitched to Ichiro in the 10th the other night. That's why baseball is so fun to talk about...numbers can frame debates, but they are certainly not the main determining factor out on the diamond.

 

[BUZZ]

1. Jerry Owens/Dewayne Wise

2. AJ

3.Quentin

4.JD

5.Jimbo

6.Alexei

7.Paulie

8.Fields

9.Getz

[ThunderBolt]

1. Jerry Owens/Dewayne Wise

2. AJ

3.Quentin

4.JD

5.Jimbo

6.Alexei

7.Paulie

8.Fields

9.Getz

Q will be hitting a lot of solo homeruns this year, won't he?

[Kalapse]

Q will be hitting a lot of solo homeruns this year, won't he?

60 RBI if we go with that lineup for a full season.

[103 mph screwball]

How did Lillibridge look in center today? I'm at work and didn't get a chance to watch.