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The Key to Bobby Jenks' Success!!


joeynach
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Look its really freaking easy to see. He needs to pitch UP IN THE ZONE. Look hes got a good (not great fastball), pretty straight, usually between 94-96 MPH. Hes out pitch is defiantly his 12-6 curveball. But here is the thing, they both only work when he keeps the ball up in the zone (I realize that the curveball winds up breaking down to knee or below knee high). The fact remains when Bobby is throwing his fastball thigh high or higher in the zone for strikes (swinging or looking) the curveball is going to get people out its that simple. The release point is going to be the same and to the hitter the curveball is going to at first look like fastball coming straight, then we all know it falls off and winds up somewhere shin high. The point is that only works when he keeps the release point up high. If he is throwing his fastball around the knees its no good, the fastball is hittable at 94-96 there and it doesn't set the curveball up for a bad swing. The evidence is simple. Look at 10th inning tonite. He retired the first two batters in high release point fashion, then look (on mlb gameday) at where Sweeney and Everbridge got their pitches and subsueqent hits, all down in the zone. It was the same story on Wed night in Seattle in the 12th inning. Look at where Hannahan got his pitches, down, for a base hit. Then Rob Johnson got the same, down, and he hit a screamer towards 1st that Kotsay made an amazing grab on. Bobby just needs to pitch up in the zone, keep his release point high and its all good. Its that simple.

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Yes. Pitching up will result in more strikeouts, but also leads to more homeruns. He pitches down as part of an overall strategy to have a more consistent curveball and throw more strikes. Pitching in the Cell means that throwing up in the zone can be dangerous.

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QUOTE (joeynach @ Aug 15, 2009 -> 08:39 AM)
Look its really freaking easy to see. He needs to pitch UP IN THE ZONE. Look hes got a good (not great fastball), pretty straight, usually between 94-96 MPH. Hes out pitch is defiantly his 12-6 curveball. But here is the thing, they both only work when he keeps the ball up in the zone (I realize that the curveball winds up breaking down to knee or below knee high). The fact remains when Bobby is throwing his fastball thigh high or higher in the zone for strikes (swinging or looking) the curveball is going to get people out its that simple. The release point is going to be the same and to the hitter the curveball is going to at first look like fastball coming straight, then we all know it falls off and winds up somewhere shin high. The point is that only works when he keeps the release point up high. If he is throwing his fastball around the knees its no good, the fastball is hittable at 94-96 there and it doesn't set the curveball up for a bad swing. The evidence is simple. Look at 10th inning tonite. He retired the first two batters in high release point fashion, then look (on mlb gameday) at where Sweeney and Everbridge got their pitches and subsueqent hits, all down in the zone. It was the same story on Wed night in Seattle in the 12th inning. Look at where Hannahan got his pitches, down, for a base hit. Then Rob Johnson got the same, down, and he hit a screamer towards 1st that Kotsay made an amazing grab on. Bobby just needs to pitch up in the zone, keep his release point high and its all good. Its that simple.

 

It's really not that simple. Any major league pitcher who consitently throws to one zone will get hammered. I think the reason Bobby is getting in trouble this year is he can't get his curve ball over and is throwing it less often. When the hitters are sitting on fast ball only, bad things are going to happen. Without the hammer, he's doing a pretty good job of moving his fastball in and out and up and down in the zone.

 

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In case you haven't noticed, Jenks is throwing more 2-seamers than 4-seamers this season. I think he's a little gun shy due to all the homers he allowed earlier in the year, and he's trying to keep the ball lower in the zone. The reason key to his success is having confidence in his curve ball. That pitch is far and away his best pitch when he has confidence in it.

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QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 15, 2009 -> 08:40 AM)
In case you haven't noticed, Jenks is throwing more 2-seamers than 4-seamers this season. I think he's a little gun shy due to all the homers he allowed earlier in the year, and he's trying to keep the ball lower in the zone. The reason key to his success is having confidence in his curve ball. That pitch is far and away his best pitch when he has confidence in it.

 

^^^^^

 

And I've heard an inkling that it might be because throwing the curve bothers his shoulder. I truly love BBB, but if he can't or won't throw the curve long-term, we might need a different closer next year. I'm guessing that his arb # this coming year would be in the $8M range, so if we use that as a budget, we should be OK.

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QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Aug 15, 2009 -> 05:49 PM)
^^^^^

 

And I've heard an inkling that it might be because throwing the curve bothers his shoulder. I truly love BBB, but if he can't or won't throw the curve long-term, we might need a different closer next year. I'm guessing that his arb # this coming year would be in the $8M range, so if we use that as a budget, we should be OK.

 

There's really no way he should be brought back next year. Thornton's ready for the closer spot, and you could save a lot of money by trying to acquire a lefty set-up man and getting some players back for Jenks.

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QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 15, 2009 -> 11:50 AM)
There's really no way he should be brought back next year. Thornton's ready for the closer spot, and you could save a lot of money by trying to acquire a lefty set-up man and getting some players back for Jenks.

 

In this economy especially, we should be able to do a few things with the money Jenks would free up, with a few million to spare to go toward a free agent or trade-for corner OF. (I'm semi-confident that KW won't get too sentimental about Pods OR JD this offseason) Not so sure I want to change Thornton's role, but that's endlessly debatable, so I won't start.

 

 

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We need to give Bobby rest. Don't pitch him on back to back days. If we do that, his velocity is down 2-3 MPH and he's vulnerable.

 

Pitch him with some rest and he gets it up there at 95-97, which makes him much more effective.

 

There's something wrong with Bobby right now, I don't know what it is. But we need to watch his use carefully.

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Aug 15, 2009 -> 07:16 PM)
We need to give Bobby rest. Don't pitch him on back to back days. If we do that, his velocity is down 2-3 MPH and he's vulnerable.

 

Pitch him with some rest and he gets it up there at 95-97, which makes him much more effective.

 

There's something wrong with Bobby right now, I don't know what it is. But we need to watch his use carefully.

 

He's a closer. If you can't pitch him on back-to-back days, then get rid of him in the offseason.

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QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Aug 15, 2009 -> 10:49 AM)
And I've heard an inkling that it might be because throwing the curve bothers his shoulder.

 

Source?

 

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 15, 2009 -> 10:50 AM)
There's really no way he should be brought back next year. Thornton's ready for the closer spot, and you could save a lot of money by trying to acquire a lefty set-up man and getting some players back for Jenks.

 

Good luck finding a setup man as effective as Thornton. I'm also not convinced that Thornton would excel in the closer role, given that he can only throw two pitches for strikes and throws about 80% fastballs.

 

I don't know if Jenks will be worth his arbitration value. But if you deal him, you'd damn well better make sure that you get a quality reliever to replace him. Because Linebrink and "T-Pain" ain't gonna get it done. The Sox bullpen is pretty freaking bad after Thornton and Jenks.

 

The people who make the "Jenks will be overpaid next year, and we need to trade him NOW for maximum value" argument miss the same point that the Yahoo Sports writers missed about the Alex Rios acquisition. Just as CF was recently, the bullpen is a point of weakness for the Sox now (and will be even more when Dotel leaves next year). The Sox are going to have to ADD talent to the pen this winter, and trading away Jenks is going in the opposite direction. Because of that, overpaying for a stabilizing player at that position for one year is probably worth it in the end (and much less of a financial burden than over-paying Rios for the next five years). Considering the arbitration due to Danks and Floyd next year, they're looking at paying over $40 million to those two plus Peavy and Buehrle. What's the point in shelling out all of that money if you're going to field a 2007-esque bullpen of crap that will blow their leads? You're better off over-paying Jenks a few million for one more year and putting yourself in a position to win than taking talent away from your bullpen and rolling the dice with lesser players. If Kenny can find two more bullpen arms that are as or more effective than Jenks, then dealing Bobby would be fine. But, as we've seen both Linebrink and Dotel fall apart since last August and we're seeing now with "T-Pain," I don't think it'll be nearly as easy as some people think.

 

Edited by WCSox
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QUOTE (WCSox @ Aug 15, 2009 -> 11:35 PM)
Source?

 

 

 

Good luck finding a setup man as effective as Thornton. I'm also not convinced that Thornton would excel in the closer role, given that he can only throw two pitches for strikes and throws about 80% fastballs.

 

I don't know if Jenks will be worth his arbitration value. But if you deal him, you'd damn well better make sure that you get a quality reliever to replace him. Because Linebrink and "T-Pain" ain't gonna get it done. The Sox bullpen is pretty freaking bad after Thornton and Jenks.

 

The people who make the "Jenks will be overpaid next year, and we need to trade him NOW for maximum value" argument miss the same point that the Yahoo Sports writers missed about the Alex Rios acquisition. Just as CF was recently, the bullpen is a point of weakness for the Sox now (and will be even more when Dotel leaves next year). The Sox are going to have to ADD talent to the pen this winter, and trading away Jenks is going in the opposite direction. Because of that, overpaying for a stabilizing player at that position for one year is probably worth it in the end (and much less of a financial burden than over-paying Rios for the next five years). Considering the arbitration due to Danks and Floyd next year, they're looking at paying over $40 million to those two plus Peavy and Buehrle. What's the point in shelling out all of that money if you're going to field a 2007-esque bullpen of crap that will blow their leads? You're better off over-paying Jenks a few million for one more year and putting yourself in a position to win than taking talent away from your bullpen and rolling the dice with lesser players. If Kenny can find two more bullpen arms that are as or more effective than Jenks, then dealing Bobby would be fine. But, as we've seen both Linebrink and Dotel fall apart since last August and we're seeing now with "T-Pain," I don't think it'll be nearly as easy as some people think.

 

I like this post a lot I agree with everything you said. Though you should note that this train of thought is oriented for WIN NOW mode. Which obviously Kenny is in, espeically considering his decision to hold onto Dotel. Valuable arms in the pen are a huge commodity if ur in a pennant race and Kenny knows that. If the sox are in win now mode they dont move around/remove Jenks or Thorton, including next year.

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Source?

 

 

 

Good luck finding a setup man as effective as Thornton. I'm also not convinced that Thornton would excel in the closer role, given that he can only throw two pitches for strikes and throws about 80% fastballs.

 

I don't know if Jenks will be worth his arbitration value. But if you deal him, you'd damn well better make sure that you get a quality reliever to replace him. Because Linebrink and "T-Pain" ain't gonna get it done. The Sox bullpen is pretty freaking bad after Thornton and Jenks.

 

The people who make the "Jenks will be overpaid next year, and we need to trade him NOW for maximum value" argument miss the same point that the Yahoo Sports writers missed about the Alex Rios acquisition. Just as CF was recently, the bullpen is a point of weakness for the Sox now (and will be even more when Dotel leaves next year). The Sox are going to have to ADD talent to the pen this winter, and trading away Jenks is going in the opposite direction. Because of that, overpaying for a stabilizing player at that position for one year is probably worth it in the end (and much less of a financial burden than over-paying Rios for the next five years). Considering the arbitration due to Danks and Floyd next year, they're looking at paying over $40 million to those two plus Peavy and Buehrle. What's the point in shelling out all of that money if you're going to field a 2007-esque bullpen of crap that will blow their leads? You're better off over-paying Jenks a few million for one more year and putting yourself in a position to win than taking talent away from your bullpen and rolling the dice with lesser players. If Kenny can find two more bullpen arms that are as or more effective than Jenks, then dealing Bobby would be fine. But, as we've seen both Linebrink and Dotel fall apart since last August and we're seeing now with "T-Pain," I don't think it'll be nearly as easy as some people think.

I don't see how this is a big deal. He dominates in 1 inning all the time. So because that inning is changed to the 9th inning means he won't succeed? That makes no sense.

 

Anyway, Thornton is too valuable to become a closer. It is harder to come in with men already on base and have to get out of the inning. Thornton is great at doing that. Jenks would be garbage at doing that. Let the less skilled pitcher stick to the 9th, when they get to start off with a fresh inning and no men on base.

Edited by son of a rude
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QUOTE (joeynach @ Aug 16, 2009 -> 01:55 AM)
I like this post a lot I agree with everything you said. Though you should note that this train of thought is oriented for WIN NOW mode. Which obviously Kenny is in, espeically considering his decision to hold onto Dotel. Valuable arms in the pen are a huge commodity if ur in a pennant race and Kenny knows that. If the sox are in win now mode they dont move around/remove Jenks or Thorton, including next year.

 

If the Sox were going into rebuilding mode next year, moving Jenks would make a ton of sense. But that's not the case.

 

QUOTE (son of a rude @ Aug 16, 2009 -> 02:35 AM)
I don't see how this is a big deal. He dominates in 1 inning all the time. So because that inning is changed to the 9th inning means he won't succeed? That makes no sense.

 

Closing is a different mentality than setup. Some players handle it well, some don't. LaTroy Hawkins couldn't handle it. Dotel couldn't handle the move from 7th inning guy to setup man last year. You just never know. Plus, Thornton was awful just a year and a half ago, so I'm not confident that he'll an effective closer for years down the road. He's a guy who lives and dies with his fastball, and gets shelled when his command isn't there.

 

Anyway, Thornton is too valuable to become a closer. It is harder to come in with men already on base and have to get out of the inning. Thornton is great at doing that. Jenks would be garbage at doing that. Let the less skilled pitcher stick to the 9th, when they get to start off with a fresh inning and no men on base.

 

I really don't care what roles they take. I don't even care if Jenks is in a Sox uniform next year, so long as he's replaced with equal talent. I'm more concerned with maintaining a talented bullpen. Jenks and Thornton are the only two relievers on the Sox (with an appreciable number of appearances) who have a WHIP below 1.43. (For comparison's sake, they had five in 2008.) Losing Jenks and not replacing him with a proven closer would essentially put the Sox in a position where they have one or two reliable relievers. That's 2007 all over again.

Edited by WCSox
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