Arizona Fall League

[flavum]

http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?si...perwin_surwin_1

 

Cassel bad again. Danks--2 bb, 2 runs.

[NorthSideSox72]

http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?si...perwin_surwin_1

 

Cassel bad again. Danks--2 bb, 2 runs.

You're not kidding - Cassel goes 0.2, gives up 6 ER, walking 4 and striking out none. ERA at 8.80 in the AFL so far.

 

Danks 1-3 plus 2 BB, 2 RBI, 3 R. Still looking good.

 

Morel 3-5, he's hitting .400 in the AFL so far. I think he's very likely trade bait.

 

Retherford with a hit, run and RBI. He had slumped badly, but after being off for 6 days (was he hurt?), his last two games are: 2-6 plus 3 BB.

 

[Marky Mark]

Not much happened yesterday.

 

Danks: 1-5, CS

 

Morel: 0-3, R, BB

 

Bellamy: 1 IP, 1 BB, 2 K

 

http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?si...surwin_perwin_1

[flavum]

http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?si...perwin_peswin_1

 

Big offensive day for everyone, including Danks and Morel.

 

[Balta1701]

22 k's in 84 AB's for D2.

[flavum]

Morel 4-6, homer

[Chisoxfn]

Morel 4-6, homer

Danks has 3 hits as well.

[Ozzie Ball]

Some AFL video:

 

Danks

Morel

Retherford

[SoxFan562004]

sorry if this has been asked and answered, but why isn't Mitchell playing somewhere or is he and I am completely missing it?

Edited November 18, 2009 by SoxFan562004

[ChiSox_Sonix]

sorry if this has been asked and answered, but why isn't Mitchell playing somewhere or is he and I am completely missing it?

 

The AFL is for AAA and AA players. I think teams can send like 1 player from the lower levels. It's not at all surprising Mitchell isn't there.

[SoxFan562004]

The AFL is for AAA and AA players. I think teams can send like 1 player from the lower levels. It's not at all surprising Mitchell isn't there.

Ah, that would make sense since he didn't play above A... is there any plans for him to play anywhere in the offseason? I know he lost a little time at LSU due to football and many people really liked the pick, but said he needed ABs.

[RockRaines]

Some AFL video:

 

Danks

Morel

Retherford

Morel changed his stance a little bit from last time I saw him, added a timing device.

[NorthSideSox72]

The AFL is for AAA and AA players. I think teams can send like 1 player from the lower levels. It's not at all surprising Mitchell isn't there.

Starting this year, they are experimenting with an AFL for lower level players. Sox are participating, and there are some lower level guys playing in AZ - its just not an official league yet, so its all like practice games that no one follows. I know of at least a couple A-level guys that are down there playing in that semi-league. Mitchell may be as well.

 

[flavum]

http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?si...perwin_pddwin_1

 

Danks, Retherford, Morel, and Cassel playing today.

[SoxAce]

Peo Javelinas so far has 3 hits. Jordan Danks has 2 of them.

[ThunderBolt]

I really thought Danksy might have to repeat AA. Now, i'm starting to think that AAA might be more likely. I'm not 100% on this, but i wouldn't rule out a Beckham like path here. Maybe two months at AA, and then a steady progression.

[flavum]

2-run homer for Morel.

[Balta1701]

I really thought Danksy might have to repeat AA. Now, i'm starting to think that AAA might be more likely. I'm not 100% on this, but i wouldn't rule out a Beckham like path here. Maybe two months at AA, and then a steady progression.

I still think MLB Pitching will absolutely eat him alive if he can't cut down on the strikeouts.

[ThunderBolt]

I still think MLB Pitching will absolutely eat him alive if he can't cut down on the strikeouts.

Oh, god yeah. If he makes the 25-man, he sure as hell better be on the bench. He really does remind me (and his brother too) of an early Alexis Rios. A very, lanky defensive oriented OF whose loopy swing suggests both plus-power potential and a bucket-load of K's.

Edited November 18, 2009 by Thunderbolt

[NorthSideSox72]

Its Sox pitcher day for Peoria:

 

Cassel, Ju 3.0 3 1 1 1 3 0 7.85

Rasner 2.0 2 0 0 2 1 0 9.45

Bellamy 2.0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1.59

 

All three looking pretty good. Even Cassel looked decent.

 

[Balta1701]

Oh, god yeah. If he makes the 25-man, he sure as hell better be on the bench. He really does remind me (and his brother too) of an early Alexis Rios. A very, lanky defensive oriented OF whose loopy swing suggests both plus-power potential and a bucket-load of K's.

Rios has been striking out in about 17-20% of his at-bats since he came up (including his rookie year). Danks has been striking out at 25%. Rios struck out 109 times last season in 630 PA's; at the pace he's been on this year, D2 would K about 150 times in a full season.

[flavum]

Danks and Morel both 3-5 today.

[SoxAce]

Rios has been striking out in about 17-20% of his at-bats since he came up (including his rookie year). Danks has been striking out at 25%. Rios struck out 109 times last season in 630 PA's; at the pace he's been on this year, D2 would K about 150 times in a full season.

 

Alex Rios never had the same plate discipline as Jordan does though. Hell this year, which was Jordan's worst overall (bummed wrist or not) in AA, he still walked 37 times in 284 abs. Alex Rios in AA walked 39 times in 514 abs. I don't care if Jordan strikes out 150 times (which BTW K's are very overrated in baseball even if Riccardi [who lost his job now] doesn't think so when he bashed Adam Dunn) as long as he continues to have good discipline at the plate averaging a good walk rate and hitting at a solid average, he will be fine. Now if he's striking out and averaging Joe Borchard/Brian Anderson type walk rate/numbers.. then there's a problem. I will agree though that it would help if he did put the ball in play more. I will give him the benefit of the doubt that his wrist and hamstring issues did more harm than good in the second part of the year when he was doing very well prior in AA.

 

BTW, what's up with Retherford? Is the work load catching up to him (I believe he's had one of the most PAs comming in to the AFL) or is it just bad luck?

[Balta1701]

Alex Rios never had the same plate discipline as Jordan does though. Hell this year, which was Jordan's worst overall (bummed wrist or not) in AA, he still walked 37 times in 284 abs. Alex Rios in AA walked 39 times in 514 abs. I don't care if Jordan strikes out 150 times (which BTW K's are very overrated in baseball even if Riccardi [who lost his job now] doesn't think so when he bashed Adam Dunn) as long as he continues to have good discipline at the plate averaging a good walk rate and hitting at a solid average, he will be fine. Now if he's striking out and averaging Joe Borchard/Brian Anderson type walk rate/numbers.. then there's a problem. I will agree though that it would help if he did put the ball in play more. I will give him the benefit of the doubt that his wrist and hamstring issues did more harm than good in the second part of the year when he was doing very well prior in AA.

Here's my problem with his K's...I can't figure out how it'd be mathematically possible for him to continue hitting at a solid average while striking out 150+ times.

 

In the minors, when he was on fire, and now in the AFL, he's been putting up BABIP values of >.400. Now, I know all the other caveats that go into that about how hard you're hitting the ball, how much bat control you have, etc., but bear with me here. Even the great players can't sustain those type of numbers once they get to the big leagues. Mauer pushed .373 this year with that stat, and his career mark is around .350.

 

If you look at the guys in MLB who struck out 150 times+ last year, which is the pace D2 makes in the minors, you have 2 types of guys. You have Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds...guys who don't give you a great batting average but you don't care because they're hitting 40 home runs.

 

The other guys with 150 k's however, are guys like BJ Upton, Brandon Inge, Mike Cameron. These are guys who are playing because they give some performance with the bat, but they're out there either in the hopes that they'll develop (Upton) or because they have very good gloves. They wind up hitting below .250. Because they're not hitting the ball out of the ballpark, they're not putting the ball in play enough to put up a solid batting average with that number of strikeouts.

 

If Danks stays on the 150k/year pace and is a 15-20 HR guy at best, then he's going to wind up hitting somewhere in the neighborhood of .250/.260 for his career. Against major league pitching, you just can't sustain that number of strikeouts and a really good batting average unless a lot of your hits are leaving the park.

[Ozzie Ball]

Here's my problem with his K's...I can't figure out how it'd be mathematically possible for him to continue hitting at a solid average while striking out 150+ times.

 

In the minors, when he was on fire, and now in the AFL, he's been putting up BABIP values of >.400. Now, I know all the other caveats that go into that about how hard you're hitting the ball, how much bat control you have, etc., but bear with me here. Even the great players can't sustain those type of numbers once they get to the big leagues. Mauer pushed .373 this year with that stat, and his career mark is around .350.

 

If you look at the guys in MLB who struck out 150 times+ last year, which is the pace D2 makes in the minors, you have 2 types of guys. You have Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds...guys who don't give you a great batting average but you don't care because they're hitting 40 home runs.

 

The other guys with 150 k's however, are guys like BJ Upton, Brandon Inge, Mike Cameron. These are guys who are playing because they give some performance with the bat, but they're out there either in the hopes that they'll develop (Upton) or because they have very good gloves. They wind up hitting below .250. Because they're not hitting the ball out of the ballpark, they're not putting the ball in play enough to put up a solid batting average with that number of strikeouts.

 

If Danks stays on the 150k/year pace and is a 15-20 HR guy at best, then he's going to wind up hitting somewhere in the neighborhood of .250/.260 for his career. Against major league pitching, you just can't sustain that number of strikeouts and a really good batting average unless a lot of your hits are leaving the park.

I agree with all of this.