Adrian Gonzalez

[iamshack]

And he's a pitcher of course.. albeit.. a damn good one. Though usually those type of deals revolves more so on pitching a good ace mostly as pitchers are harder to come by, which is why I still commend KW on getting Peavy. Same as the Mets and Minaya basically robbing the Twins on netting Santana.

Yeah, I dunno...I think you're right that an ace is harder to come by, but that begs the question: Does an ace contribute more to your club than a superstar everyday player?

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Aren't 27-year-old, left-handed, gold glove-winning, MVP candidates pretty hard to come by?

 

There's not a precedent in very recent history for what Gonzalez would bring. You can however look at what Mark Texiera brought back with 1.5 years left and while making more money, and while also not being the power hitter Gonzalez is. Texeira, along with Ron Mahay, brought back Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Neftail Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, and Beau Jones in a massive 2-for-5 deal.

[iamshack]

Aren't 27-year-old, left-handed, gold glove-winning, MVP candidates pretty hard to come by?

 

There's not a precedent in very recent history for what Gonzalez would bring. You can however look at what Mark Texiera brought back with 1.5 years left and while making more money, and while also not being the power hitter Gonzalez is. Texeira, along with Ron Mahay, brought back Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Neftail Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, and Beau Jones in a massive 2-for-5 deal.

Yeah, that is another comparable...but I just don't feel like Teixeira had as high a ceiling as AGon has. To put it bluntly, Teixeira was putting up lower numbers in a hitter's paradise than AGon put up last year in a pitcher's park.

 

Edit: I take that back...their numbers are fairly comparable. They put up comparable numbers with Teixeira in a hitter's park and AGon in a pitcher's park.

 

Edited November 13, 2009 by iamshack

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Yeah, that is another comparable...but I just don't feel like Teixeira had as high a ceiling as AGon has. To put it bluntly, Teixeira was putting up lower numbers in a hitter's paradise than AGon put up last year in a pitcher's park.

Agree. AGon is a different kind of monster, and the idea that because he plays 1B he should not be valued as one of the most valuable players in baseball - which is exactly what he is - is absurd. Two years of Gonzalez costs $10.25M. That's less than Konerko makes next year and less than Linebrink makes over the next two. John Danks will probably make more than that in total through arb, same with Quentin. Gonzalez would be one of the cheapest regulars on our team and he'd be putting up MVP numbers, and yet he's supposed to have more diminished value because of this 1B nonsense.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Edit: I take that back...their numbers are fairly comparable. They put up comparable numbers with Teixeira in a hitter's park and AGon in a pitcher's park.

Gonzalez's numbers have been trending upwards, including his power, and he has played half his games in PetCo. Teixiera has benefitted from Texas all those years and the New Yankee Stadium this year. Gonzalez has become more of a slugger IMO while Tex is more of a pure hitter.

 

Edit: Tex seems to be the hitter now that he'll be for the next 5-7 years. Gonzalez OTOH has become like a massive mold that somehow keeps growing and swallowing things. He could end up crushing entire cities by 2013. Actually, Adrian Gonzalez kind of reminds of a combination of the Stay-Puff Marshmallow Man and the psychoreactive slime in the Ghostbusters movies.

Edited November 13, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[SoxAce]

Agree. AGon is a different kind of monster, and the idea that because he plays 1B he should not be valued as one of the most valuable players in baseball - which is exactly what he is - is absurd. Two years of Gonzalez costs $10.25M. That's less than Konerko makes next year and less than Linebrink makes over the next two. John Danks will probably make more than that in total through arb, same with Quentin. Gonzalez would be one of the cheapest regulars on our team and he'd be putting up MVP numbers, and yet he's supposed to have more diminished value because of this 1B nonsense.

 

You might not like it, but that's the world of value in baseball economics especially at one of the easiest positions to fill as far a position player. No doubt Adrian is a beast and will be a tough sign in FA regardless in a couple years, but lets not even think about that for a second. I'll say an example and I still love the move the sox did here in the long run.. lets say years from now the sox want to trade Gordon Beckham. We'll say on "average" he puts up a .290/.350/.440/.800 line. You don't think the sox would get way more in terms of value at 2B than they would if he was playing 3B especially with those numbers? Sure some GMs would ask for more than what they should get (see Balt. GM/Brian Roberts) but some of the potential deals going through are way easier to see for a guy playing more up the middle or the outfield. (mostly CF) Utley would net more of a ransom more so than say.. a Kevin Youkilis (1B Youk) IMO.

 

BTW.. I'll put every dime I got, barring an unforeseen extension, (which I highly doubt, though you never know) Joey Votto will be traded next year even though he's still in arb. I still believe the Reds will be having financial problems (stadium issues?) after this year. They need a s***load of buyouts and bargains in the market.

Edited November 13, 2009 by SoxAce

[iamshack]

You might not like it, but that's the world of value in baseball economics especially at one of the easiest positions to fill as far a position player. No doubt Adrian is a beast and will be a tough sign in FA regardless in a couple years, but lets not even think about that for a second. I'll say an example and I still love the move the sox did here in the long run.. lets say years from now the sox want to trade Gordon Beckham. We'll say on "average" he puts up a .290/.350/.440/.800 line. You don't think the sox would get way more in terms of value at 2B than they would if he was playing 3B especially with those numbers? Sure some GMs would ask for more than what they should get (see Balt. GM/Brian Roberts) but some of the potential deals going through are way easier to see for a guy playing more up the middle or the outfield. (mostly CF) Utley would net more of a ransom more so than say.. a Kevin Youkilis (1B Youk) IMO.

 

BTW.. I'll put every dime I got, barring an unforeseen extension, (which I highly doubt, though you never know) Joey Votto will be traded next year even though he's still in arb. I still believe the Reds will be having financial problems (stadium issues?) after this year. They need a s***load of buyouts and bargains in the market.

I think he realizes the position scarcity argument. Certainly GB is more valuable with his offensive production at 2b as compared to 3b, because his production will be greater relative to other 2b than it will be to other 3b. However, the real question is where do you draw the line? Is a .950 OPS 1b less valuable than a .800 OPS 2b? At some point, a team can only afford to put 9 guys on the lineup card, and the runs the 1b knocks in count just as much as those that the 2b knocks in. The question is, where is that line drawn?

 

In the case of AGon, I think he far exceeds that line. His value as a young, productive, cheap run producer is great enough that the position scarcity argument doesn't really come into play.

[SoxAce]

I think he realizes the position scarcity argument. Certainly GB is more valuable with his offensive production at 2b as compared to 3b, because his production will be greater relative to other 2b than it will be to other 3b. However, the real question is where do you draw the line? Is a .950 OPS 1b less valuable than a .800 OPS 2b? At some point, a team can only afford to put 9 guys on the lineup card, and the runs the 1b knocks in count just as much as those that the 2b knocks in. The question is, where is that line drawn?

 

In the case of AGon, I think he far exceeds that line. His value as a young, productive, cheap run producer is great enough that the position scarcity argument doesn't really come into play.

 

Ya I know what your saying here as well, but let's not pretend Adrian has done this alot. He put up a .950 OPS just this past year, on a s***ty SD team, with no help in that lineup. He'll be comming to a superior AL league, he won't get pitched around as much and he probably won't walk nearly as much. I would still take his career numbers on this team, but he's not Albert Pujols or even a young freak like Miguel Cabrera was (check that... still is) when he was traded to the AL putting up the godly numbers he did with the Marlins even with Hanley on that team. Not counting his rookie year, his first year in the AL he put up a .292/.349/.537/.887 which was a "bad" season for him playing 1B. Adrian will no doubt have to adjust, though his power is very real. You can find more solid 1B, DH, 3B etc.. in a FA market or a trade then you can 2B, SS, CF, barring Bora$ in our instance to solidify your overall lineup. You would see a Joey Votto for example in a trade rumor long before you'd see a Troy Tulowitski contracts aside. If we have a damn good 2B/SS and a damn good CF, I'll definitely take a solid/serviceable 3B/1B especially if your overall pitching is right. I'm just glad Adrian has a good glove which always helps especially to put Konerko at DH or trade bait.

[cornball]

Several years ago? You have a funny definition of the word several.

 

December 9, 1982: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Philadelphia Phillies for Jay Baller, Julio Franco, Manny Trillo, George Vukovich and Jerry Willard.

 

 

LOL I guess I am showing my age a little bit. It doesn't seem that long ago.

[balfanman]

LOL I guess I am showing my age a little bit. It doesn't seem that long ago.

 

I'm right there with you Cornball. "Several" seemed like the right term to me when you first posted it. I guess that these young whiper snappers take offense when you mention something that probably happened before they were a twinkle in their daddys' eyes as being not that long ago.

 

Kind of like when your 13 year old says something to the effect of "when I was young".

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Ya I know what your saying here as well, but let's not pretend Adrian has done this alot. He put up a .950 OPS just this past year, on a s***ty SD team, with no help in that lineup. He'll be comming to a superior AL league, he won't get pitched around as much and he probably won't walk nearly as much.

 

I would still take his career numbers on this team, but he's not Albert Pujols or even a young freak like Miguel Cabrera was (check that... still is) when he was traded to the AL putting up the godly numbers he did with the Marlins even with Hanley on that team. Not counting his rookie year, his first year in the AL he put up a .292/.349/.537/.887 which was a "bad" season for him playing 1B. Adrian will no doubt have to adjust, though his power is very real. You can find more solid 1B, DH, 3B etc.. in a FA market or a trade then you can 2B, SS, CF, barring Bora$ in our instance to solidify your overall lineup. You would see a Joey Votto for example in a trade rumor long before you'd see a Troy Tulowitski contracts aside. If we have a damn good 2B/SS and a damn good CF, I'll definitely take a solid/serviceable 3B/1B especially if your overall pitching is right. I'm just glad Adrian has a good glove which always helps especially to put Konerko at DH or trade bait.

Gonzalez has been improving. He's not the same player now that he was in his first couple of years in San Diego. This is a former #1 pick in the draft and now he has become what he was supposed to become. If you look at his home/road splits, he's really not all that great in PetCo at all. His road numbers however are fantastic.

 

You make a point when you say that in another park, with protection, he is not going to be pitched around as much. Good! You don't want the opposition to pitch around your best hitters, you want them to get the chance to drive the ball. The walks will dip, but the average and slugging is going to shoot up, and his OPS as a result is going to be higher in a place like the Cell. IMO he's a 1.000 OPS player in the Cell between Beckham and a healthy Quentin. He would also be the best left-handed pure power hitter in the American League.

 

Also, Adrian I believe led all of baseball in opposite field home runs. Around 3/4 of this home runs IIRC are to center and left, with the majority going out to left. That's just amazing. Put him in the Cell and he could easily hit 50 IMO. He's become one of the best power hitters in basball, and at his age, with his talent and pedigree, there is no reason to view his upward-trending numbers with any suspicion. He's a legit monster.

 

He's not Albert Pujols, but he's lightyears above the majority of the competition.

 

The offense by position argument I almost always agree with and that's why I'm a fan of Beckham moving to 2B. However, when you start talking about the most elite power hitters in the game, especially left-handed ones, position no longer matters. You're not going to get that kind of production very often from any position. Plus, Adrian has some pretty damn good range to both his left and right for a 1B, along with soft hands and strong reactions. We're not talking about some lumbering 1B here. Adrian is a pretty serious athlete.

 

Also, isn't cost efficiency a main factor in the offense by position argument? Because if you get strong offense from typical defensive positions, it allows you to go cheaper on traditional power positions? Adrian Gonzalez at $10.25M over 2 years is about as cost efficient as you can possibly get, and I would argue that putting a bat like that, at such a price, at any position on the diamond, still allows you to go cheap in other areas, and still allows tremendous flexibility.

[iamshack]

Good post KHP, but check out that article Qwerty posted about Adrian's walks. It points out that simply because he'll see more strikes hitting in a better lineup doesn't necessarily mean he'll hit more of those strikes for XBH. I think there is probably some truth to that - lineup protection seems to be a very mythological idea...

 

Where I do think AGon will make up for the fewer walks is, as you mention, because of the park factors. I think more of those doubles he hit in Petco will be home runs in US Cellular, which will drive up his slugging percentage, and therefore, increase his OPS in that regard, even if his OBP is falling because he is being pitched around fewer times.

 

As for the position scarcity argument, I couldn't agree with you more. At some point, an elite hitter is an elite hitter no matter where he plays on the diamond. Considering the fact that we have finite resources, and only 9 slots on the lineup card, with other skills needed to win baseball games (solid defensive players), I think Adrian, especially at his salary, is amongst the most valuable players right now in the game.

[BigSqwert]

Too lazy to read 289 posts. Is there anything to this or mere speculation?

[Kyyle23]

Too lazy to read 289 posts. Is there anything to this or mere speculation?

 

 

duh, this deal is done. Lillibridge for Adrian Gonzalez, and Padres pay cash to the Sox

[iamshack]

Actually, there is a lot more in this thread than just the speculation.

 

There's some really good debate in here on a bunch of topics: Known production vs. prospect worth; Examples of other mega deals for stars; Position scarcity; Lineup protection theory, etc.

 

A lot of people could learn some things by checking out this thread.

 

In my opinion, one of the better threads of the year, honestly.

[DukeNukeEm]

its like the lyceum of baseball.

[iamshack]

its like the lyceum of baseball.

Indeed it is, the digital lyceum for intelligent baseball chatter, even with some good one-liners in there!

 

Honestly, it's been very refreshing for me, instead of reading all the same nonsense about JR being cheap, Kenny sucking, the basecloggers, etc...

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Good post KHP, but check out that article Qwerty posted about Adrian's walks. It points out that simply because he'll see more strikes hitting in a better lineup doesn't necessarily mean he'll hit more of those strikes for XBH. I think there is probably some truth to that - lineup protection seems to be a very mythological idea...

 

Where I do think AGon will make up for the fewer walks is, as you mention, because of the park factors. I think more of those doubles he hit in Petco will be home runs in US Cellular, which will drive up his slugging percentage, and therefore, increase his OPS in that regard, even if his OBP is falling because he is being pitched around fewer times.

 

As for the position scarcity argument, I couldn't agree with you more. At some point, an elite hitter is an elite hitter no matter where he plays on the diamond. Considering the fact that we have finite resources, and only 9 slots on the lineup card, with other skills needed to win baseball games (solid defensive players), I think Adrian, especially at his salary, is amongst the most valuable players right now in the game.

I started reading that article and I guess I'll go back and give it a chance.

 

I really disagree with idea of protection being a myth. The better hitters before and after you, the tougher it is on the opposing pitcher.

 

The better the hitters are in front of you, the likelier it is for someone to be on base. Going after a big RBI guy with a man on base is very different than attacking him with no one on.

 

Also, if the previous hitter - let's say Beckham - gets into a battle and sees a lot of pitches, and if he forces the pitcher to use just about everything he has, then a smart hitter on deck is going to be watching this, and he is going to go up to the plate with a better idea of what to look to for.

 

From the standpoint of the pitcher, it's a ton easier to work around a tough hitter and then risk making a mistake to a weaker hitter than it is to make good pitches to 3 hitters in a row because you have to. If the pitcher finds it hard to get into a rhythm and he drives up his pitch count in the process, the odds of the bullpen entering the game sooner increase, which is generally going to help your chances of scoring runs, especially if you can get into a bullpen early during the first game of a series. I'm one of those people who believe that the stress of an inning mentally is harder on a pitcher than just throwing pitches in general, and the more stress you put on him, the likelier it is for him to make a mistake. A 3-4-5 of Beckham-Gonzalez-Quentin IMO would add a ton of stress to opposing pitchers. Obviously there will be some guys who are very good pitchers and are just "on," and they'll be able to work through this without much difficulty, but more often than not, it is going to be a pain in the ass for opposing pitchers to work through that kind middle of the order. For a recent example here, I don't think it's much of a coincidence that Dye, Thome, Paulie, and Crede all had excellent years for themselves in 2006 while hitting in a row. They all had very good years on their own, but they also benefited from each other.

 

And I'll say this too: just look at our starting rotation. We have 5 guys that on any given day can go 7 innings and pretty much shut down a lineup. As it stands right now we are were lacking in offense and I believe that even if we don't make any major improvements in that area, we'll still be able to scrape across enough runs to win quite a few close ballgames. If we add a bat like Gonzalez we are going to really going to boost our run differential, and there are going to be more games where we'll be up with big leads, and our starters will take us deep, and because of the leads we'll be able to rely on the front of our bullpen (Carrasco) to finish out games. You can never really count on a bullpen, especially one-inning relievers, but having 5 starters each capable of working 200+IP as well as a potent offense could do wonders to improve our bullpen simply by taking stress off of our weakest back-end relievers by going to them less frequently in tight situations.

 

If I didn't believe Adrian Gonzalez would make us a World Series contender for 2010 and 2011 then I wouldn't suggest trading the farm for him since it is likely we would lose him to free agency in 2012 and only pick up draft picks. But I just find it so surprising that so many people are so concerned about the 2012 team that they'd pass up a chance like this, if it really is there.

 

If we get Adrian and we make major runs for the next two years than EVERYTHING is going to change. You can't just sit here and imagine that things two years from now would be similar to the way they are now, only worse because we won't have any good young players anymore. Two years represents 2 more years of development for the remaining prospects we would keep, plus two years worth of drafts and international signing periods, plus two years of better attendance and a more attractive atmosphere to potential advertisers which leads to more money to play around with, plus two years or additional roster moves by the front office. Two years from now we may have another Floyd/Danks/Quentin/Alexei type that is cheap, young, productive, under team control, and who is **not even in our organization right now.** Go back 2 years from now to 2007 and very few if any of us here would have thought we'd be in such good position as we are in currently, given how s***ty that 2007 team was. I just don't understand how dealing the farm now for a player of Gonzalez's caliber somehow dooms us in the future. That's a very bleak attitude and IMO it is completely unnecessary given the strides our organization has made in general since the 2003 offseason compared to prior periods.

[balfanman]

Once again KHP, we see eye to eye on this issue.

 

Thank you for stating it so eloquently!

[BigSqwert]

Once again KHP, we see eye to eye on this issue.

 

Thank you for stating it so eloquently!

May I suggest hotels.com for the 2 of you?

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Once again KHP, we see eye to eye on this issue.

 

Thank you for stating it so eloquently!

You're very welcome. I'm glad someone here has my back.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

May I suggest hotels.com for the 2 of you?

I deal my drugs out of the Red Roof Inn. I just ask for the room with the most bullet holes in the door so I get a good rate as it is, but thanks for looking out.

[iamshack]

KHP, I agree with a lot of that, but don't confuse stacking a number of good hitters in a row throughout a lineup with protection theory. Certainly the better your hitters are, the more professional, dangerous hitters you stack up on one another, the more runs your team will score, for all and more of the reasons you listed. However, the studies show that a dominant hitter puts up similar individual numbers regardless of whether he has good hitters in front of or behind him in the lineup or not. That's not to say AGon won't drive in more runs because he has more men on base in front of him, or score more runs because he has better hitters behind him to knock him in.

 

But the studies are showing that a hitter such as Manny Ramirez or AGon are not necessarily hitting more home runs or XBH because pitchers have to come after them more. From what I have read, the relationship is not a linear one. My guess is there may be some correlation, but it is difficult to recognize over that sample size because the odds of hitters increasing their slugging percentage aren't all that great based on seeing one better pitch to hit per AB. They still have to put that ball in play, they still have to hit it where someone isn't, etc. Most elite hitters get an XBH around 1/20 at bats, from what I understand. So if you do the math, that isn't necessarily coming out to a ton more XBH a year because you are still dealing having to put those pitches in play and hitting them where someone isn't. My very uneducated guess would be that it may come out to some 4-5 additional XBH per year.

 

As for your other points regarding the position of the franchise in 2 years, I think you're spot on. A LOT will change between now and two years from now. Whether we sign AGon or not. KW has proven that.

[SoxAce]

He's definitely going to dip in some areas, and he will be a monster in other areas. That was a good find once again by qwerty and generally shack I agree with what your saying and KHP. At the end of the day. if we get Adrian, my god I would be giddy, and if we don't then hey.. next year when Joey Votto is available, I hope we go after him hard or two years from now, if another 1B emerges, or whatever FA same.

[nickofypres]

I started reading that article and I guess I'll go back and give it a chance.

 

I really disagree with idea of protection being a myth. The better hitters before and after you, the tougher it is on the opposing pitcher.

 

The better the hitters are in front of you, the likelier it is for someone to be on base. Going after a big RBI guy with a man on base is very different than attacking him with no one on.

 

Also, if the previous hitter - let's say Beckham - gets into a battle and sees a lot of pitches, and if he forces the pitcher to use just about everything he has, then a smart hitter on deck is going to be watching this, and he is going to go up to the plate with a better idea of what to look to for.

 

From the standpoint of the pitcher, it's a ton easier to work around a tough hitter and then risk making a mistake to a weaker hitter than it is to make good pitches to 3 hitters in a row because you have to. If the pitcher finds it hard to get into a rhythm and he drives up his pitch count in the process, the odds of the bullpen entering the game sooner increase, which is generally going to help your chances of scoring runs, especially if you can get into a bullpen early during the first game of a series. I'm one of those people who believe that the stress of an inning mentally is harder on a pitcher than just throwing pitches in general, and the more stress you put on him, the likelier it is for him to make a mistake. A 3-4-5 of Beckham-Gonzalez-Quentin IMO would add a ton of stress to opposing pitchers. Obviously there will be some guys who are very good pitchers and are just "on," and they'll be able to work through this without much difficulty, but more often than not, it is going to be a pain in the ass for opposing pitchers to work through that kind middle of the order. For a recent example here, I don't think it's much of a coincidence that Dye, Thome, Paulie, and Crede all had excellent years for themselves in 2006 while hitting in a row. They all had very good years on their own, but they also benefited from each other.

 

And I'll say this too: just look at our starting rotation. We have 5 guys that on any given day can go 7 innings and pretty much shut down a lineup. As it stands right now we are were lacking in offense and I believe that even if we don't make any major improvements in that area, we'll still be able to scrape across enough runs to win quite a few close ballgames. If we add a bat like Gonzalez we are going to really going to boost our run differential, and there are going to be more games where we'll be up with big leads, and our starters will take us deep, and because of the leads we'll be able to rely on the front of our bullpen (Carrasco) to finish out games. You can never really count on a bullpen, especially one-inning relievers, but having 5 starters each capable of working 200+IP as well as a potent offense could do wonders to improve our bullpen simply by taking stress off of our weakest back-end relievers by going to them less frequently in tight situations.

 

If I didn't believe Adrian Gonzalez would make us a World Series contender for 2010 and 2011 then I wouldn't suggest trading the farm for him since it is likely we would lose him to free agency in 2012 and only pick up draft picks. But I just find it so surprising that so many people are so concerned about the 2012 team that they'd pass up a chance like this, if it really is there.

 

If we get Adrian and we make major runs for the next two years than EVERYTHING is going to change. You can't just sit here and imagine that things two years from now would be similar to the way they are now, only worse because we won't have any good young players anymore. Two years represents 2 more years of development for the remaining prospects we would keep, plus two years worth of drafts and international signing periods, plus two years of better attendance and a more attractive atmosphere to potential advertisers which leads to more money to play around with, plus two years or additional roster moves by the front office. Two years from now we may have another Floyd/Danks/Quentin/Alexei type that is cheap, young, productive, under team control, and who is **not even in our organization right now.** Go back 2 years from now to 2007 and very few if any of us here would have thought we'd be in such good position as we are in currently, given how s***ty that 2007 team was. I just don't understand how dealing the farm now for a player of Gonzalez's caliber somehow dooms us in the future. That's a very bleak attitude and IMO it is completely unnecessary given the strides our organization has made in general since the 2003 offseason compared to prior periods.

 

Win