Balta1701 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 10, 2012 -> 02:48 PM) I tend to agree. Certain Presidents seem to look better or worse years after they left office. For me, both HW and Clinton have looked better over time... Reagan and W worse. HW begat W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 10, 2012 -> 01:52 PM) HW begat W. Yes and no. Yes for the obvious reason. But no, HW is well known to have steered almost entirely clear of W's decisions as a President. In fact the few times he did give advice, it was about NOT going into Iraq, which W did anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 10, 2012 -> 02:53 PM) Yes and no. Yes for the obvious reason. But no, HW is well known to have steered almost entirely clear of W's decisions as a President. In fact the few times he did give advice, it was about NOT going into Iraq, which W did anyway. I hold the obvious reason against him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOXOBAMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 W was the worst President of all-time.. I do believe that Obama will win with over 300 electoral votes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOXOBAMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 My prediction for 2016 Clinton vs Bush for President. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 10, 2012 -> 10:26 AM) Pretty sure he hates on Huntsman mostly to egg me on. As for Ron Paul, I can't believe I am defending the guy again, but need to clarify yet another falsehood from Reddy... Paul served ACTIVE Air Force as a surgeon for 2 tours of duty. Then he went to the National Guard. Reddy has this odd tendency, when he hones in on something he doesn't like, to try to add to his position by making things up and/or being selective in his acceptance of which facts he likes and doesn't. If Huntsman were to somehow win the primary lottery and win the nomination - which is incredibly unlikely - he would definitely have my vote. Romney I am on the fence about, I don't like the guy, but I think as President he is likely to be more like the centrist version of Romney than the far-right one he acts like in the primaries. And I'd be OK with that. Paul is intriguing, but he just has too many bats*** crazy ideas for me to vote for him. Anyone else from the GOP field wins, and I'm voting for Obama. figure you gotta play the GOP's game some times. Seems to work well for them. fair enough though. Guy served in the military and good on him for doing so. I respect it and think him commendable for having done so. I DON'T think that gives him the right to rip on Gingrich. Gingrich WAS ineligible for the draft when his notice came in, and it's not like Paul was on the front lines. Why the hell am I defending either of these guys? I hate them both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 QUOTE (SOXOBAMA @ Jan 10, 2012 -> 04:19 PM) W was the worst President of all-time.. I do believe that Obama will win with over 300 electoral votes I'm fairly sure you're joking to an extent, but it's hard to be worse than guys like James Buchanan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 VAN BUREN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jan 10, 2012 -> 06:14 PM) VAN BUREN! MILLARD FILLMORE!!!!!!! I always picture a duck for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Grant was also terrible, mostly having to do with unchecked corruption in his cabinet and I'm guessing his alcoholism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 10, 2012 -> 07:26 AM) just to be clear, by you agree with his foreign policy you agree with pulling out of all international treaties (including NATO), eliminating all of our bases, and all future uses of military influence. Not just pulling out of Afghanistan, correct? pretty much. maybe i would be OK with staying in NATO though. But cut off all funding for the UN (of course) And...you wnt to eliminate the fed, go to a gold standard, etc. nope. read, learn to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Mittens wins NH primary. Ron Paul in 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr_genius Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ron Paul is giving an epic second place speech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 QUOTE (mr_genius @ Jan 10, 2012 -> 08:08 PM) Ron Paul is giving an epic second place speech. If you see a link, send it this way. I haven't watched anything yet, and I seriously doubt it'll be re-aired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Republican turnout in New Hampshire looks like it will be significantly lower than 2008's primary. Possibly by as much as 40%: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2...pshire-primary/ With 85 of 301 precincts reporting, 52,191 voters have cast a ballot in the Republican primary so far. That projects to about 185,000 votes statewide, as compared with about 240,000 votes in the Republican primary in 2008. The drop-off in turnout looks worse for Republicans since a higher fraction of voters - about half this year, compared to 37 percent in 2008 - are independents. That means that turnout among registered Republicans could alone be off by nearly 40 percent from 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 With 81% reporting, GOP results, for those who care... Romney: 38% (5 delegates locked) Paul: 23% (3 delegates locked) Huntsman: 17% (2 delegates locked) Gingrich and Santorum: 10% (0) Perry: 1% (0) One more delegate to go to someone else based on final 19%. Remaining open precincts seem to lean a little more Paul and Huntsman than Romney. -- NH was a firewall for Huntsman, needed at least 3rd to stay alive, 2nd to have any decent chance. So he is moving sideways. Romney needed to win big, he did, but not big enough to completely ice anything. Paul got what he thought he would, maybe a tad better, he is starting to feel good about things. Gingrich disappointing in fourth, and he's not polling well lately in SC either, I think his campaign is dying. Santorum's Iowa victory didn't seem to help much in NH. Now onto SC. Romney doesn't even have to win, but if he does, this thing might be over. Perry has SC as a firewall, he needs a huge leap into 2nd, or he's toast IMO. Gingrich needs to stay top 3 to stay alive. Paul is Paul. Huntsman needs to look relevant in a state he didn't bombard, same goes for Santorum, so they both need to target Top 3 as well to even say they are reasonably in it. So... who drops out first, of these remaining 6? I predict SC ends up a close-match bloodbath, and goes like this: Romney 30% Paul 24% Santorum 20% Perry 12% Gingrich 8% Huntsman 6% Huntsman doesn't profile well for Florida, so I think SC breaks his back and he's out. Perry can't do better than 4th in what should be a wheelhouse state, so I think he finally drops out too (I actually think he's only staying in to raise more money anyway). That will give Gingrich an excuse to stay in. Santorum's social conservatism plays well and he surprises high in SC. So that leaves four for Florida. Gingrich will go balls-out in Florida, and run out of money in addition to finishing near-bottom, so I think Florida is his end, leaving Romney, Santorum and Paul to duke it out for who knows how long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jan 10, 2012 -> 10:53 PM) Republican turnout in New Hampshire looks like it will be significantly lower than 2008's primary. Possibly by as much as 40%: My local news said the exact opposite last night, used the phrase "Record turnout", WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well, Nate had an update a little while later: One quick observation: the precincts that have reported later in the evening are showing more voters per precinct that the earlier ones, so the turnout projection is now looking slightly better for the G.O.P. Based on a linear extrapolation from the precincts counted so far, the turnout would be about about 225,000 voters. About 240,000 voters turned out for the Republican primary in 2008. - Nate Silver Note that, like the Iowa caucuses, there was a lower percentage of self-identified Republicans voting in the GOP caucuses than in 2008. So even if turnout was even or slightly higher, there would still be less Republicans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm just annoyed that my local news lied to me. They're going to get an email about this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like Romney got 39.4% of the vote with a total of 95669 votes, meaning ~242k people voted in the GOP primary and it was a record-setter by a slim margin of overall votes. But Republican turnout was still lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 So Nate Silver's original post lied to me? He's so getting an angry email about this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 10, 2012 -> 11:15 PM) With 81% reporting, GOP results, for those who care... Romney: 38% (5 delegates locked) Paul: 23% (3 delegates locked) Huntsman: 17% (2 delegates locked) Gingrich and Santorum: 10% (0) Perry: 1% (0) One more delegate to go to someone else based on final 19%. Remaining open precincts seem to lean a little more Paul and Huntsman than Romney. -- NH was a firewall for Huntsman, needed at least 3rd to stay alive, 2nd to have any decent chance. So he is moving sideways. Romney needed to win big, he did, but not big enough to completely ice anything. Paul got what he thought he would, maybe a tad better, he is starting to feel good about things. Gingrich disappointing in fourth, and he's not polling well lately in SC either, I think his campaign is dying. Santorum's Iowa victory didn't seem to help much in NH. Now onto SC. Romney doesn't even have to win, but if he does, this thing might be over. Perry has SC as a firewall, he needs a huge leap into 2nd, or he's toast IMO. Gingrich needs to stay top 3 to stay alive. Paul is Paul. Huntsman needs to look relevant in a state he didn't bombard, same goes for Santorum, so they both need to target Top 3 as well to even say they are reasonably in it. So... who drops out first, of these remaining 6? I predict SC ends up a close-match bloodbath, and goes like this: Romney 30% Paul 24% Santorum 20% Perry 12% Gingrich 8% Huntsman 6% Huntsman doesn't profile well for Florida, so I think SC breaks his back and he's out. Perry can't do better than 4th in what should be a wheelhouse state, so I think he finally drops out too (I actually think he's only staying in to raise more money anyway). That will give Gingrich an excuse to stay in. Santorum's social conservatism plays well and he surprises high in SC. So that leaves four for Florida. Gingrich will go balls-out in Florida, and run out of money in addition to finishing near-bottom, so I think Florida is his end, leaving Romney, Santorum and Paul to duke it out for who knows how long. The one wild card in this race is that it really looks like the SuperPAC's have built up enough money to make the next 10 days in South Carolina a "Gingrich in Iowa" level Hell for Mittens. With 3-4 candidates now ganging up on himi and running nothing but attack ads, if there's going to be any dent in his campaign, it's going to happen there. If he survives that unscathed, then Florida shouldn't really be that rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Interesting looking at the exit polling from NH. Apparently liberals love Ron Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 12:14 PM) Interesting looking at the exit polling from NH. Apparently liberals love Ron Paul. As do the young, lower educated, and unmarried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milkman delivers Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 11, 2012 -> 12:15 PM) As do the young, lower educated, and unmarried. Lower as in? His attraction with Liberals is why I think he'd have a chance against Obama as long as Republicans would support him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts