Too early for a 2010 Mock Draft? Maybe

[danman31]

Pretty good blog that I found through the FutureSox Twitter. It's all about draft coverage, some good stuff. Here's his second mock draft.

 

13. Chicago White Sox – Austin Wilson, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA) – I had Wilson discounted a little in my first mock draft in October, but I now don’t see him dropping past some of the tool-hungry scouting departments in this section of the first round. Despite drafting Jared Mitchell and Trayce Thompson a year ago, the White Sox still have a place to pick a high-level future right fielder with plus-plus power potential in Wilson. The White Sox don’t have a lengthy history of drafting prep bats this high, but they didn’t have an opportunity to do so most years, so the logic is here. Previously: #17.

 

He does admit the Sox don't take prep hitters, but I still don't see that happening. Regardless, it's been slow in here lately so I thought I could add this for some discussion. Also noteworthy:

 

39. Boston Red Sox – Bryan Morgado, LHP, Tennessee – Morgado’s someone I had as a possibility for the Rays at their #31 slot in my last mock, and I still think he’s more of a supplemental first round arm. He proved what he can do on the Cape last summer, and while the White Sox wouldn’t pony up the money for him as their third-rounder a year ago, he’s much more signable as a 22 year old junior this year. The Red Sox will find good value in him at this slot. Previously: #31.

 

Obviously, it's before the season for almost every one of these guys and Morgado is certainly someone that needs to perform better in season to be considered for a pick this high.

[dasox24]

It's never too early for mock drafts. It's always fun to project future players. Gosh, I hope Morgado has a badass year 'cause that will be good for Tenneessee, but it will kind of suck thinking he should have been in our system.

[Quin]

A High Schooler? It'd be intriguing if we took one in the first round.

 

Also, I would think the Sox would get a pitcher, due to the lack of depth, but who knows.

[DirtySox]

Andy does great work. I'm looking forward to the draft notebook.

 

In regards to the draft, I would be shocked if they don't use their first round pick on a pitcher. The organization has stated that pitching will be their focus in the upcoming draft, and rightfully so. There isn't any advanced (impact) pitching talent beyond Hudson. Luckily the strength of this years class seems to be in the arms.

 

Quite a few intriguing prep arms at the top of the class and plenty of college arms with decent upside as well. It's still way too early for mocks, but I'm betting on a higher upside college arm taken with the the 13th pick. Names that could be available at that point are Jesse Hahn, Deck McGuire, Drew Pomeranz, Alex Wimmers, Brandon Workman, Chris Sale, Kyle Blair, and Chad Bettis. Taking a prep arm would be unexpected, but I'm a huge fan of DeAndre Smelter and his nasty splitter, as well as a Dylan Covey with that hammer curve.

 

Clearly all of this is subject to change and the board will likely look completely different by June, but draft talk is fun, especially with college ball starting in a few weeks.

[danman31]

Also, it seems the Sox take guys that are coming off big seasons and weren't in 1st round discussion until the 2nd half of their season. Mitchell, Broadway, Anderson are good examples of that. There's a solid chance the Sox take a guy who isn't on the radar yet.

[ThunderBolt]

I'd love to get a high-upside pitcher pretty early on in the draft. Preferably, left-handed.

[JPN366]

If Harper slips, do the Sox draft him?

[gatnom]

If Harper slips, do the Sox draft him?

 

I don't think they would want to pay him.

[ThunderBolt]

If Harper slips, do the Sox draft him?

You mean if the consensus #1 pick of the draft slips to #13 should we draft him. Um, yes?

[Ozzie Ball]

You mean if the consensus #1 pick of the draft slips to #13 should we draft him. Um, yes?

Do they, not should they. Completely different things. Should they draft him in that situation? Hell yes. Would they? Almost certainly not. The Sox haven't shown any propensity for drafting the tough signability guys or dealing with Boras.

[ThunderBolt]

Do they, not should they. Completely different things. Should they draft him in that situation? Hell yes. Would they? Almost certainly not. The Sox haven't shown any propensity for drafting the tough signability guys or dealing with Boras.

Harper is a a different story. You do not pass up on this kid, he has all the raw potential in the world. If he falls to 13 you tell Boras you'll pay him above slot and around top ten money, but nothing more.

Edited February 7, 2010 by Thunderbolt

[Ozzie Ball]

Andy does great work. I'm looking forward to the draft notebook.

 

In regards to the draft, I would be shocked if they don't use their first round pick on a pitcher. The organization has stated that pitching will be their focus in the upcoming draft, and rightfully so. There isn't any advanced (impact) pitching talent beyond Hudson. Luckily the strength of this years class seems to be in the arms.

 

Quite a few intriguing prep arms at the top of the class and plenty of college arms with decent upside as well. It's still way too early for mocks, but I'm betting on a higher upside college arm taken with the the 13th pick. Names that could be available at that point are Jesse Hahn, Deck McGuire, Drew Pomeranz, Alex Wimmers, Brandon Workman, Chris Sale, Kyle Blair, and Chad Bettis. Taking a prep arm would be unexpected, but I'm a huge fan of DeAndre Smelter and his nasty splitter, as well as a Dylan Covey with that hammer curve.

 

Clearly all of this is subject to change and the board will likely look completely different by June, but draft talk is fun, especially with college ball starting in a few weeks.

Yeah Andy's site is great, his draft notebook is a must purchase for me.

I really like Deck McGuire at this point. Big frame allows him to pitch on a steep downwards plane, very good fastball, two good breakers and an effective change. That works for me. A good year probably cements his place in the top 10 though.

[Ozzie Ball]

Harper is a a different story. You do not pass up on this kid, he has all the raw potential in the world. If he falls to 13 you tell Boras you'll pay him above slot and around top ten money, but nothing more.

That would be pointless though. Boras would just laugh in your face, send Harper back to JUCO and wait for someone to give him $7m+ and a Major Leaue deal next year.

[ThunderBolt]

That would be pointless though. Boras would just laugh in your face, send Harper back to JUCO and wait for someone to give him $7m+ and a Major Leaue deal next year.

And then we get a comp pick. Harper has made every effort at getting to the major leagues as soon as possible. If he's honestly more interested in the money then we can say we gave it a try, and we'll try again next year. It's risk/reward and the reward of getting Harper far outweighs the risk of gambling on being rebuffed, and having another go at the same draft point the following year.

[SoxAce]

The only prospect I wanted the sox to go overslot for in any year was Rick Porcello. I don't mind at all if the sox don't deal with Harper and Boras as Harper is very gifted, but alittle overrated IMO.

 

I'm still hoping my boy (and Thunderbolts ) Ranaudo falls to us more-so though, but I like Pomeranz and Blair (I don't think Whitson will fall to us) Two h.s. pitchers I would love to see the sox nab in later rounds are Dan Tillman and Jordan Shipers. As far as a college pitcher.. Cobey Guy (huge sleeper potential, needs one more pitch to be a starter though, otherwise just perhaps a good/stud reliever ala Bellamy, but has what scouts call "swing-and-miss stuff")

Edited February 7, 2010 by SoxAce

[ThunderBolt]

I'd kill for Ranaudo to fall to us. As for Harper, he's not all hype. He generates tremendous power from his hands, and has a cannon of an arm. It's far to lofty to call him the "Chosen One," but he's remarkably gifted, and we'd be stupid to pass him up if he was still available.

[Quin]

My friend said if Harper fell to us, you only take him if he doesn't catch.

 

Because we have AJ and Flowers

 

 

[southsider2k5]

If Harper slips, do the Sox draft him?

 

Keep in mind we are talking about at least Stausburg money.

[ThunderBolt]

Keep in mind we are talking about at least Stausburg money.

Not at #13. I don't care how much hype the kid has gotten, if his star falls as far as out of the top ten he is not getting top 5 money. Boras has almost all of the leverage here, but even he realizes the position Harper has put himself in by rushing into the draft this year.

[gatnom]

Not at #13. I don't care how much hype the kid has gotten, if his star falls as far as out of the top ten he is not getting top 5 money. Boras has almost all of the leverage here, but even he realizes the position Harper has put himself in by rushing into the draft this year.

 

I bet he asks for more than Strasburg got regardless of where he is drafted, and I doubt he'd settle for anything less.

[DirtySox]

Of course you take Harper if you have the chance. That being said, there is not a chance in hell he falls to number 13 unless an arm falls off and his knees explode.

 

I'm a huge fan of Ranaudo too, but there is little chance he falls to 13. I would be shocked if he lasted past the top 5. The only way I see him falling is if significant injury occurs (like Kyle Gibson's situation), which is certainly a possibility with how hard LSU rode him last year. It will be interesting to see how his workload is approached this season.

 

It will likely be between Ranaudo and Taillon as the first pitcher taken, than perhaps Cole, and after that the pitching talent becomes rather muddled. It will be curious to see if any other teams approach the draft like Pittsburgh and Baltimore did last year, with overdrafting a first rounder for less money in order to nab better talent that falls to the later rounds.

Edited February 7, 2010 by DirtySox

[Balta1701]

Keep in mind we are talking about at least Stausburg money.

Strasbourg money isn't that scary; his contract wound up being fairly reasonable for that level of draft pick. The $50 million he was talking about was scary.

[Springfield Soxfan]

Strasbourg money isn't that scary; his contract wound up being fairly reasonable for that level of draft pick. The $50 million he was talking about was scary.

I thought someone said that the Sox are focusing on pitching this draft at SoxFest, but I hope that we just take the best available players period. I also think that showing our hand by going after pitching is a smoke screen.

[DirtySox]

I thought someone said that the Sox are focusing on pitching this draft at SoxFest, but I hope that we just take the best available players period. I also think that showing our hand by going after pitching is a smoke screen.

 

Smokescreen? This isn't free agency competition. With a set draft order there isn't a need for much secrecy and illusory statements. Teams aren't vindictively bypassing needs in order to prevent other teams from acquiring a specific player. As far as BPA, they will likely nab the best pitcher available. Confining yourself to pitching isn't the same as confining yourself to the best available 3rd basemen. The system desperately needs some high upside, TOR pitching prospects. Luckily the best player available to very likely to be a pitcher at the 13 spot considering the strength of this draft class.

 

FWIW, last year before the draft the Sox stated they were interested in a toolsy outfielder type with their first rounder. Seems to me that is exactly what they selected.

Edited February 7, 2010 by DirtySox

[danman31]

I bet he asks for more than Strasburg got regardless of where he is drafted, and I doubt he'd settle for anything less.

Anyone who pays that would be a fool. As good of a prospect as this guy may seem, he's not as advanced as Strasburg is/was and isn't a pitcher. He'll get above average #1 money, but I don't think a team is going to give him into the stratosphere unless he hits .500 in juco.

 

I thought someone said that the Sox are focusing on pitching this draft at SoxFest, but I hope that we just take the best available players period. I also think that showing our hand by going after pitching is a smoke screen.

Honestly, how much of a difference does it make? Player evaluation is so tough in the MLB draft I can't say I would mind the Sox taking a guy a couple spots lower on their overall rankings to take a pitcher instead of a hitter. Unless there is a Porcello type slide (which we know the Sox won't pay for) the difference between top hitter and top pitcher at each spot is going to be so small that it's a waste of energy to complain about taking position instead of 'best available.' If anything you should hope the Sox do well at finding out who the best available is instead of worrying that they will select by position instead of ability.