Why Kotsay shouldn't Bat 5th

[chw42]

FanGraphs had a nice article about lineup optimization.

 

Optimizing Yesterday's Lineups

 

Using CHONE projections and a nice lineup optimizer tool, the writer compiled a list of how "optimized" the lineups were yesterday.

 

Team Actual Best Dif

TEX 5.017 5.033 -0.016

MIN 5.257 5.308 -0.051

OAK 4.519 4.571 -0.052

CLE 5.019 5.081 -0.062

KCA 4.379 4.446 -0.067

PIT 4.552 4.628 -0.076 *

DET 4.698 4.776 -0.078

TOR 4.676 4.763 -0.087

CHA 4.759 4.858 -0.099

SEA 4.478 4.578 -0.100

LAA 4.891 5.016 -0.125

HOU 3.967 4.142 -0.175

COL 5.064 5.258 -0.194

ATL 4.898 5.106 -0.208

LAN 4.773 5.982 -0.209

ARI 4.704 4.916 -0.212

FLO 4.813 5.035 -0.222

SFN 4.294 4.522 -0.228

PHI 4.783 5.102 -0.229

WAS 4.410 4.644 -0.234

CIN 4.608 4.846 -0.238

CHN 4.660 4.899 -0.239

MIL 4.629 4.876 -0.247

SDN 4.176 4.431 -0.255

NYN 4.381 4.645 -0.264

STL 4.843 5.116 -0.273

 

The AL teams obviously have the better optimized lineups since we don't have a pitcher hitting, but take a look where we are. According to this, we had the 8th best optimized lineup in the AL out of the 10 teams in action yesterday. And to be quite frank, TB, BOS, NY, and maybe even Baltimore might be ahead of us. Meaning we would've had the 11th or 12th best optimized lineup in the AL on opening day.

 

For a club that could be offensively challenged this is unacceptable.

 

Kotsay hitting in the 5th spot is one of the larger issues (Pierre at leadoff is another, but that won't ever change).

 

Taking something straight from the article.

 

St. Louis had the worst-optimized lineup. The big problem for them, in addition to having Chris Carpenter batting 9th, was Albert Pujols batting 3rd. As noted above, the studies of lineup optimization shows that the 2nd, 4th and 5th spots should all have better hitters than the third, so having the game’s best hitter bat third really hurts.

 

For the most part, we have this right. Gordon's hitting second, Konerko is hitting 4th, but Kotsay is hitting 5th...

 

We saw this yesterday. Twice, Kotsay came up with men in scoring position, and twice hit the ball into the ground. If those ground balls weren't weak, it would have been two double plays, not just one. Had it been two, the Sox might have scored only 4 runs instead of 6 (since after Kotsay's ground out RBI, Quentin scored on a wild pitch).

 

If it wasn't against the Indians, that could have made a hell of a difference.

 

Ozzie needs to stop playing around and either put Rios or somebody more qualified into that 5th hole. Hell, I'd rather have A.J. there than Kotsay. Or, move Quentin to 4th, Konerko to 5th and Rios to third if Alex gets off to a good start this week. He can play Kotsay as much as he wants for all I care, just hit him lower in the order where he won't be put into situations that can decide the fate of a game.

 

 

 

 

 

[BigSqwert]

You could have saved some work:

Why Kotsay shouldn't bat 5th...

 

because he sucks.

 

/thread

[whitesoxfan101]

Yeah, it's pretty common sense that Kotsay shouldn't bat 5th. I think our manager is the only person who thinks it's a good idea, him and White Sox opponents.

[chw42]

You could have saved some work:

 

I think some people around here actually think Kotsay batting 5th isn't the worst thing in the world.

 

Plus, using some evidence to back up your argument isn't a bad idea.

 

Edited April 6, 2010 by chw42

[whitesoxfan101]

I think some people around here actually think Kotsay batting 5th isn't the worst thing in the world.

 

I'm very concerned for those peoples mental state if that's the case.

Edited April 6, 2010 by whitesoxfan101

[BigSqwert]

And I don't think he sucks. He should bat in the lower 3rd of the lineup though. It's not his fault where he hits.

[BigSqwert]

Plus, using some evidence to back up your argument isn't a bad idea.

 

I'm not a big fan of facts.

[Balta1701]

Like it or not, there's logic to breaking up the RH hitters. Beckham, Quentin, Konerko, Rios all in a row, followed by Jones/Kotsay, AJ, Teahen, and Ramirez...if you don't break them up, you're setting yourself up to be hurt in the 8th and 9th innings by LOOGY and ROOGY people. That's not just for the heart of the order too...yes, Quentin and others have splits that say they hit RHP fine...but there's always going to be an occasional RHP, say a side-armer or sommething like that, which you can pull out of a hat to frustrate those guys, and if you don't break them up you're giving away innings.

 

The ideal solution is to get an .800 OPS out of Teahen. If he can do that, he can fit in that 5th spot and not be a hole.

 

Otherwise, I'll live with Kotsay until it's May and hes hitting .220. If he can hit .300 out of that spot, even if he does so with no power, at least he breaks everything up.

[chw42]

I'm very concerned for those peoples mental state if that's the case.

 

If Ozzie and Hawk can be blinded by Kotsay mania, I'm sure that some may be blinded by his hot wife or the perception that he used to be a good hitter with a good glove.

[chw42]

I'm not a big fan of facts.

 

Fact.

[chw42]

Like it or not, there's logic to breaking up the RH hitters. Beckham, Quentin, Konerko, Rios all in a row, followed by Jones/Kotsay, AJ, Teahen, and Ramirez...if you don't break them up, you're setting yourself up to be hurt in the 8th and 9th innings by LOOGY and ROOGY people. That's not just for the heart of the order too...yes, Quentin and others have splits that say they hit RHP fine...but there's always going to be an occasional RHP, say a side-armer or sommething like that, which you can pull out of a hat to frustrate those guys, and if you don't break them up you're giving away innings.

 

The ideal solution is to get an .800 OPS out of Teahen. If he can do that, he can fit in that 5th spot and not be a hole.

 

Otherwise, I'll live with Kotsay until it's May and hes hitting .220. If he can hit .300 out of that spot, even if he does so with no power, at least he breaks everything up.

 

You can get that out of A.J.

 

He actually hits for more power than Kotsay too.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

If Ozzie and Hawk can be blinded by Kotsay mania, I'm sure that some may be blinded by his hot wife or the perception that he used to be a good hitter with a good glove.

 

There's nothing wrong with the player he was 5 or 6 years ago

[chw42]

There's nothing wrong with the player he was 5 or 6 years ago

 

Bad grammar there. I meant to say that some people still might think that he is as good as he was 5 years ago.

Edited April 6, 2010 by chw42

[whitesoxfan101]

If Ozzie and Hawk can be blinded by Kotsay mania, I'm sure that some may be blinded by his hot wife or the perception that he used to be a good hitter with a good glove.

 

I think that certainly against righties, A.J. should be hitting 5th and Kotsay 7th. I agree with Balta that Teahen not sucking would help the situation out a lot though. It's hard because this lineup is a bat short right now, and will remain as such until June or July when a trade will probably be made, so there are no great options. But Kotsay hitting 5th is asinine.

[fathom]

If Ozzie and Hawk can be blinded by Kotsay mania, I'm sure that some may be blinded by his hot wife or the perception that he used to be a good hitter with a good glove.

 

The biggest misconception about Kotsay that I can't stand is that he's fast. He almost got doubled up yesterday with the bases loaded on a slow chopper to 2nd base that wasn't turned quickly at all.

[chw42]

The biggest misconception about Kotsay that I can't stand is that he's fast. He almost got doubled up yesterday with the bases loaded on a slow chopper to 2nd base that wasn't turned quickly at all.

 

Exactly, he used to be fast. But people don't forget so quickly I guess.

[whitesoxfan101]

I'm a bit saddened by what I read in this thread. I would hope (and thought) our fanbase is smarter than to buy into Mark Kotsay.

[Balta1701]

You can get that out of A.J.

 

He actually hits for more power than Kotsay too.

AJ's OPS since he joined the sox, starting in 05

 

.728

.769

.712

.728

.755

 

Kotsay hasn't played regularly because of injury for a couple seasons, so it's hard to give numbers on what we might get from him, especially if we're careful enough to keep him healthy. But he put up a .732 in 2008, and a .783 with the Sox last year. I'll be the first to admit "Sample size!", but if Kotsay hits like a .300 hitter, we're talkign ab out 10-20 points of OPS difference at the worst. AJ and Kotsay seem like pretty similar hitters when it comes to OPS. You can't get me mad about that one right now, the numbers just don't back it up.

[bmags]

The biggest misconception about Kotsay that I can't stand is that he's fast. He almost got doubled up yesterday with the bases loaded on a slow chopper to 2nd base that wasn't turned quickly at all.

 

hey, as hawk told us that was a great at bat

[greg775]

I could see moving AJ up. Oz certainly loves Kotsay, but AJ is a much much much much better hitter.

[whitesoxfan101]

I could see moving AJ up. Oz certainly loves Kotsay, but AJ is a much much much much better hitter.

 

I wouldn't go that far. Neither of them should even be talked or thought about as an option hitting 5th, but we're just such a weak hitting team from the left side, so here we are.

[elrockinMT]

hey, as hawk told us that was a great at bat

 

 

I don't think Hawk has met an at bat he didn't like. I was hoping to see Andruw Jones in there to PH for Kotsay with that lefty up

[bmags]

AJ's OPS since he joined the sox, starting in 05

 

.728

.769

.712

.728

.755

 

Kotsay hasn't played regularly because of injury for a couple seasons, so it's hard to give numbers on what we might get from him, especially if we're careful enough to keep him healthy. But he put up a .732 in 2008, and a .783 with the Sox last year. I'll be the first to admit "Sample size!", but if Kotsay hits like a .300 hitter, we're talkign ab out 10-20 points of OPS difference at the worst. AJ and Kotsay seem like pretty similar hitters when it comes to OPS. You can't get me mad about that one right now, the numbers just don't back it up.

 

In your scenario, all a manager has to do is see that Kotsay doesn't hit RHP well, and realize it's worth the risk to minimize the effects of CQ and Konerko. We knew the lack of good LH hitter was going to be a problem this year, but putting an awful LH hitter in a good spot doesn't help much either in any other way than that it theoretically makes sense to split up our righties.

[Balta1701]

In your scenario, all a manager has to do is see that Kotsay doesn't hit RHP well, and realize it's worth the risk to minimize the effects of CQ and Konerko. We knew the lack of good LH hitter was going to be a problem this year, but putting an awful LH hitter in a good spot doesn't help much either in any other way than that it theoretically makes sense to split up our righties.

Just for 1 more note of comparison. Last 3 years, AJP vs. RHP: .735 OPS, Kotsay .738.

[chw42]

AJ's OPS since he joined the sox, starting in 05

 

.728

.769

.712

.728

.755

 

Kotsay hasn't played regularly because of injury for a couple seasons, so it's hard to give numbers on what we might get from him, especially if we're careful enough to keep him healthy. But he put up a .732 in 2008, and a .783 with the Sox last year. I'll be the first to admit "Sample size!", but if Kotsay hits like a .300 hitter, we're talkign ab out 10-20 points of OPS difference at the worst. AJ and Kotsay seem like pretty similar hitters when it comes to OPS. You can't get me mad about that one right now, the numbers just don't back it up.

 

Weighted On Base Average tells a similar story, but it says that A.J. is the slightly better option.

 

A.J.'s wOBA since 05: .318, considering he put up a .326 last year, I'd project him to get one around .320, which both Bill James and ZiPS agree with. CHONE and Marcel have him slightly below .318. So we can say that he's going to end up in the .315-.320 range.

 

Kotsay's wOBA in his last season with more than 400 PAs (2008), he put up a .316 wOBA. In his last alright season back in 2005, he put up a .321.

Considering that Kotsay's regressing more than A.J., you can mark him for a .310 wOBA this year, which again, ZiPS and Bill James agree with while CHONE and Marcel have him lower.

 

That 5-10 point wOBA swing isn't a lot, but it's a potential difference maker.