I would have loved for Lee to stay with the Cubs. I would have had a blast teasing the Cubs fans about their SS named Ju-Lee.

 

Only the Cubs would play a girl at SS in the MLB!

 

Ju's part of his first name.

 

FanGraphs' take on Garza: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/m...s-aaron-harang/

 

If you don't want to read it, basically, they say Garza's a slightly better version of Aaron Harang and that his ERA might not drop as much as some of us are expecting.

So, in terms of the Rays as AL competition, they give up a guy from their rotation and they get a couple guys who were old for AA last year but might fill holes on their MLB roster this year...and 2 solid prospects...one of whom is a pitcher who just arrived at AA last year, the other is a SS who was in single A last year...so the Rays essentially get no real strong help for this year's roster (Yeah they have other pitchers who can step in I know, just looking at their MLB roster from this trade).

Matt Garza's pretty overrated if you ask me. He hasn't been worth more than ~3 WAR in his career yet. A lot of potential, not great results. He's a nice 2 or 3 option, but he's nothing great.

Well, twice if you use bWAR, which I find to be more accurate for pitchers than fWAR. I think he's safely a 3-win pitcher. But you're right, not an elite guy.

So, in terms of the Rays as AL competition, they give up a guy from their rotation and they get a couple guys who were old for AA last year but might fill holes on their MLB roster this year...and 2 solid prospects...one of whom is a pitcher who just arrived at AA last year, the other is a SS who was in single A last year...so the Rays essentially get no real strong help for this year's roster (Yeah they have other pitchers who can step in I know, just looking at their MLB roster from this trade).

 

They can use Sam Fuld...lol.

Well, twice if you use bWAR, which I find to be more accurate for pitchers than fWAR. I think he's safely a 3-win pitcher. But you're right, not an elite guy.

 

I was gonna say more than 3.2, but I got lazy. He's usually been around the 3 win mark. He probably had his best aesthetic year last season with the 15 wins and the no hitter, but realistically, he wasn't all that good in terms of peripherals.

 

I think Hendry got tricked by the wins, the no hitter, and Garza's slightly deceiving ERA. Watch him give Garza a 4 year extension soon.

Edited January 7, 201115 yr by chw42

More than one publication compares Archer to everyone's friend here, Edwin Jackson. I like the deal for the Cubs.

Can I ask which prospect is the #1 and which is their #4?

 

 

Archer and Lee I think, in that order.

 

 

What he said.

I have a feeling that over time Lee is going to be the gem of this trade. He's got 4/5 traditional tools. According to scouting reports, elite defense at a premium position. A .300 hitter thus far for his first two seasons in pro ball. And for speed, 57 stolen bases over that time. He can also draw walks looking at his BB% close to 10%, and he hits from the left side. A lot to like in Lee.

More than one publication compares Archer to everyone's friend here, Edwin Jackson. I like the deal for the Cubs.

 

Edwin Jackson was once one of the best prospects in baseball. I'd say Jackson's about as good as Garza and still has room to improve. They're pretty similar pitchers, but Jackson's ceiling is higher. Mostly because Edwin actually has a very good out pitch in his slider. Garza's just fastballs blazing.

Edited January 7, 201115 yr by chw42

Ju's part of his first name.

 

FanGraphs' take on Garza: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/m...s-aaron-harang/

 

If you don't want to read it, basically, they say Garza's a slightly better version of Aaron Harang and that his ERA might not drop as much as some of us are expecting.

 

I know but it would still have been fun to tease the cub fans.

 

I like the deal for the Rays. They're oozing starting pitching. I've read nothing but sparkling reports about Archer and Lee.

Edited January 7, 201115 yr by Jordan4life

On Sportscenter, Buster said that talking to scouts/talent evaluators, they didn't think the Cubs gave up any "high end, high talent" guys.

 

I think maybe Archer is being underrated, but many feel he ends up a closer.

Also, Archer isn't the clear #1 prospect for the Cubs. Baseball America has him #1, but Hardball Times has him #2, Sickels has him #3, and Baseball Prospectus has him #3 (4/5 stars).

Can't deny this is a good move for the Cubs, too. But they're still a distant 4th behind the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals.

Edited January 7, 201115 yr by Jordan4life

I think maybe Archer is being underrated, but many feel he ends up a closer.

The Rays have been great at developing starters and bad at developing closers, so I'm not sure they'd mind.

Can't deny this is a good move for the Cubs, too. But they're still a distant 4th behind the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals.

 

That's my problem with this trade - I really can't see the Cubs as anywhere near as good as some of the other NL Central teams. If I was a Cubs fan, I'd be pretty confused about what direction my team was headed.

Well, twice if you use bWAR, which I find to be more accurate for pitchers than fWAR. I think he's safely a 3-win pitcher. But you're right, not an elite guy.

 

GOD DAMN IT! What is this stat now?

That's my problem with this trade - I really can't see the Cubs as anywhere near as good as some of the other NL Central teams. If I was a Cubs fan, I'd be pretty confused about what direction my team was headed.

 

It's pretty clear to me what the Cubs are doing. They are gearing up for 2012 to be a spending year. So they get a not-old starter who will be under team control at that point and after that point.

 

Also to say the Cubs are bereft of veteran talent is false. They can still do the win now model, albeit on a 13 month pause. The talent level currently is not enough for 2011, but if they keep some of what they have on board, it would be a fine complement to a spending spree a year from now.

Edited January 7, 201115 yr by Princess Dye

I wonder if Cashner will still move back into the rotation. I kind of wanted to see that.

GOD DAMN IT! What is this stat now?

 

bWAR is baseball-reference WAR, which uses traditional statistics in determining pitcher value. fWAR is fan-graphs WAR, using peripherals and that which a pitcher has under his own control to determine their value

Can't deny this is a good move for the Cubs, too. But they're still a distant 4th behind the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals.

my exact feeling on it. Yes, it's a good move, Garza is a good pitcher, but the Brewers added two better SPs this offseason. I just don't see it giving them that much better of a chance of winning the division.

Edited January 7, 201115 yr by SoxFan562004

What's Garza's contract status?

What's Garza's contract status?

under arbitration control for 3 more seasons including 2011, which makes it a better deal for the Cubs.

 

Again, mixed on this from the Cubs... they get a good young pitcher who they control money wise for 3 years and could always buy a year or two of that for an extra year or so. However, on paper I just don't see how it helps them compete in a more significant way this year. I like it far more as a 2012-13 move than 2011, but then they're going to have to replace guys coming off the books, grant it many of them are old and not fantastic, but unless something drastic happens the Ricketts won't have mega money to spend and even if you do, as the NYY proved this year, money doesn't always win out.

Edited January 7, 201115 yr by SoxFan562004

my exact feeling on it. Yes, it's a good move, Garza is a good pitcher, but the Brewers added to better SPs this offseason. I just don't see it giving them that much better of a chance of winning the division.

I could certainly see that Cubs team being competitive for the division. They definitely under-performed last year; they only got a half season from Aramis, they effectively got 1/3 of a season from Zambrano. They've at least got a player who could be average at every position. Soriano/Byrd/Fukudome, and Ramirez/Castro/DeWitt/Pena, with Tyler Colvin slugged in there somewhere, Soto behind the plate, Marmol as the closer, with Zambrano/Dempster/Garza/Silva/Wells as their rotation, Wood as a setup man,

 

The thing is, they need to be healthy at a few key spots, and they're older than the teams they're competing against.

bWAR is baseball-reference WAR, which uses traditional statistics in determining pitcher value. fWAR is fan-graphs WAR, using peripherals and that which a pitcher has under his own control to determine their value

And your thoughts on GWAR?

I could certainly see that Cubs team being competitive for the division. They definitely under-performed last year; they only got a half season from Aramis, they effectively got 1/3 of a season from Zambrano. They've at least got a player who could be average at every position. Soriano/Byrd/Fukudome, and Ramirez/Castro/DeWitt/Pena, with Tyler Colvin slugged in there somewhere, Soto behind the plate, Marmol as the closer, with Zambrano/Dempster/Garza/Silva/Wells as their rotation, Wood as a setup man,

 

The thing is, they need to be healthy at a few key spots, and they're older than the teams they're competing against.

Yeah I can see how they can compete, I just don't feel this move jumps them up significantly. There's just a ton of question marks in there, including health. Sure devil's advocate can be played for any team, but since we're discussing the Cubs, Zambrano is a complete question mark even with his last starts of the year in 2010, Silva is far from a guarantee, as is Wells, Dempster is good but again, 08 for him was probably more of an anomaly than an accurate reflection of what he really is. That line-up is just so full of ifs and maybes. Easily the best thing they have IMO is Marshall/Woods/Marmol for 7/8/9. Again, sure they can compete, but the NL Central is a tough division and I just don't think Garza makes them significantly better.

 

I really think many people in the media, well let's face it Chicago is a bigger market than Milwaukee, are underplaying what the Brewers did... I mean, Markum and Greinke added, with Galardo (sp?) at 3 and Wolf at 4 is extremely good, and their line-up with Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hart, etc. on paper is extremely solid. Also, they really got burned by Hoffman at the beginning of the season last year, he completely imploded and threw a bunch of stuff off.

 

NL Central should be interesting this year.