jaysonst Jayson Stark

Samson confirmed Marlins would go to lunch with Cespedes & give him ballpark tour Wednesday but team has limits on $ it's prepared to offer

 

I'm thinking you are correct. If Cespedes gets anything near $50 million, I'm thinking Soler gets around $30 million. Considering the Sox owe Rios $38.5 million, those prices are staggering IMO.

 

Even if the Sox miss on both, I hope their figures are much smaller. Giving these guys all that money just gives guys like Boras more ammo.

I refuse to believe these numbers are correct.

 

If they are, teams are just stupid. The Red Sox are stupid for paying Matsuzaka what they did. The Rangers are stupid for paying Darvish what they did. If Cespedes gets $50 million as basically the equivalent of a #1 draft pick...think about that....Strasburg got $15.1 million...Harper got $9.9 million...and you're going to pay Cespedes $50 million and Soler $20-30 million? Come on...these numbers are outrageous.

 

I still think Cespedes ends up in the $32-35 million range and Soler comes in around where Dayan's contract did.

CST_soxvan Daryl Van Schouwen

Sox are not a favorite on Cespedes tote board. Cubs, Marlins appear to be teams to beat.

 

 

Cespedes granted visitor's visa to travel to U.S., likely to meet with Marlins Wednesday, ESPNcom reports. Cubs, Sox, Tigers, O's interested

 

Was just a joke. I was mainly talking about that stupid carnival style sign they have.

Soler at $20 to $25 million just makes so much more sense than Cespedes at $60 million. Put him in Winston Salem with Thompson & Walker to start next season and hopefully you have Rios' replacement ready in 2014 or 2015 when he's either tradeable or gone. That's when we should be targeting to be competitive again.

Well that is totally different than what was previously reported...

 

CST_soxvan Daryl Van Schouwen

Guillen: 'Waiting for decision from Cespedes. Hope it's a Marlin.' Cespedes: 'Hopefully I can play for the Marlins.' Offer expected today

 

I refuse to believe these numbers are correct.

 

If they are, teams are just stupid. The Red Sox are stupid for paying Matsuzaka what they did. The Rangers are stupid for paying Darvish what they did. If Cespedes gets $50 million as basically the equivalent of a #1 draft pick...think about that....Strasburg got $15.1 million...Harper got $9.9 million...and you're going to pay Cespedes $50 million and Soler $20-30 million? Come on...these numbers are outrageous.

 

I still think Cespedes ends up in the $32-35 million range and Soler comes in around where Dayan's contract did.

These comparisons to the draft are ridiculous. Strasburg & Harper weren't free agents, so comparing them to free agents makes zero sense. Strasberg easily would have gotten Darvish money if he were available to the highest bidder, but instead being subject to the draft limited him to $15 million. That in no way, shape, or form reflects his real value. So please stop comparing what guys on the open market cost relative to guys in a restricted market.

Comparing international free agent contracts to amateur draft signings is the new market inefficiency.

These comparisons to the draft are ridiculous. Strasburg & Harper weren't free agents, so comparing them to free agents makes zero sense. Strasberg easily would have gotten Darvish money if he were available to the highest bidder, but instead being subject to the draft limited him to $15 million. That in no way, shape, or form reflects his real value. So please stop comparing what guys on the open market cost relative to guys in a restricted market.

 

It's a perfectly valid comparison in an argument for how stupid these teams are. There is no difference in "bust odds" from a #1 draft pick and some random cuban. One just has a stupidity-cap on the $ offered.

These comparisons to the draft are ridiculous. Strasburg & Harper weren't free agents, so comparing them to free agents makes zero sense. Strasberg easily would have gotten Darvish money if he were available to the highest bidder, but instead being subject to the draft limited him to $15 million. That in no way, shape, or form reflects his real value. So please stop comparing what guys on the open market cost relative to guys in a restricted market.

What would you compare them to? MLB Free Agents? When you start talking numbers like $50-60 million for players that are coming out of leagues that are that equivalent of A or AA ball, that is just bats*** crazy.

 

You raise a fair point in regards to the restricted market, but if the market is truly THAT devoid of talent that teams are willing to pay $50-75 million for top international talent, than one would expect to see vast increases in spending on the draft, as well as more positioning done in regards to acquiring draft picks (have a lot of the FA compensation rules been removed in the new CBA?).

 

 

What would you compare them to? MLB Free Agents? When you start talking numbers like $50-60 million for players that are coming out of leagues that are that equivalent of A or AA ball, that is just bats*** crazy.

 

You raise a fair point in regards to the restricted market, but if the market is truly THAT devoid of talent that teams are willing to pay $50-75 million for top international talent, than one would expect to see vast increases in spending on the draft, as well as more positioning done in regards to acquiring draft picks (have a lot of the FA compensation rules been removed in the new CBA?).

 

I think this Cespedes deal sounds like it'll be ridiculous, but it is a hyper-competitive market right now and that type of situation makes people do really dumb things with their money. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Cespedes got a $50 million deal, especially from the Marlins who have been, as you are obviously well aware, extremely fiscally reasonable this offseason.

 

To compare it to the first year player draft is absolutely wrong. If you want to compare it to anything else, then compare it to free agents coming over from Japan (or Asia in general). That's the closest you're going to get.

Edited February 8, 201214 yr by witesoxfan

Comparing these numbers to the draft makes you realize how ridiculous the sox are in their draft spending. you have many GUARANTEED chances to pick people with the upside of many of these guys, and you won't budge over slot. yet then we're prime players in the overbidding sweepstakes? these guys must love seeing kenny join the party just as much as seeing cashman.

 

 

the dramatic difference in pricing across the two processes says there's inefficiency, at least in some players, and this much is known to the whole baseball world, except kenny of course.

Edited February 8, 201214 yr by maki

Comparing these numbers to the draft makes you realize how ridiculous the sox are in their draft spending. you have many GUARANTEED chances to pick people with the upside of many of these guys, and you won't budge over slot. yet then we're prime players in the overbidding sweepstakes? these guys must love seeing kenny join the party just as much as seeing cashman.

 

 

the dramatic difference in pricing across the two processes says there's inefficiency, at least in some players, and this much is known to the whole baseball world, except kenny of course.

I don't necessarily believe the Sox are silly with their lack of spending. I'd love for them to draft guys who slip and pay overslot, but whatever they pay guys like Jordan Danks isn't going to payoff.

I don't necessarily believe the Sox are silly with their lack of spending. I'd love for them to draft guys who slip and pay overslot, but whatever they pay guys like Jordan Danks isn't going to payoff.

 

Jordan Danks is exactly what people have been clamoring for when it comes to draft spending. Draft and pay based on where they should have gone. The results of that in retrospect are hindsight.

Jordan Danks is exactly what people have been clamoring for when it comes to draft spending. Draft and pay based on where they should have gone. The results of that in retrospect are hindsight.

He was and is a waste of money.

He was and is a waste of money.

Then you forfeit the right to ever complain about the Sox not spending in the draft.

Then you forfeit the right to ever complain about the Sox not spending in the draft.

 

No kidding. How ridiculous.

Then you forfeit the right to ever complain about the Sox not spending in the draft.

 

Pretty much. The point all along is that Sox will not overpay a guy for his slot. JorDanks is exactly what people are looking for more of. Of course now with a few years of hindsight it hasn't worked out, and it is easy to look down on, but this is exactly what the people who hate the Sox farm system are looking for.

Then you forfeit the right to ever complain about the Sox not spending in the draft.

As I previously stated, the only time I have a problem with the Sox and draft spending is when they don't pick the obvious guys who drop because of signability and/or draft lesser players because of it. Take the best player available unless there are obvious injury or character concerns. I was never a fan of J Danks. He wasn't a huge overslot signing. He got $500k.

As I previously stated, the only time I have a problem with the Sox and draft spending is when they don't pick the obvious guys who drop because of signability and/or draft lesser players because of it. Take the best player available unless there are obvious injury or character concerns. I was never a fan of J Danks. He wasn't a huge overslot signing. He got $500k.

As a 7th round pick, he was clearly one of, if not hte best possible players available at the time, who dropped because of signability concerns.

 

So he's exactly what you're saying the Sox should do.

As a 7th round pick, he was clearly one of, if not hte best possible players available at the time, who dropped because of signability concerns.

 

So he's exactly what you're saying the Sox should do.

He got 3rd round money. I'd rather have the Sox spend the 500k on a 2nd or 3rd round pick that should have gone in round 1, and spend the round 7 money on a round 7 pick.

 

I'm really not for rebuilding through the draft BTW, its a long road and too many things can go wrong,but the Sox do have to select better.

Edited February 8, 201214 yr by Dick Allen

In the end, you take risks.

 

We've seen that money go to the likes of Silverio, Anderson Gomes and Orlando...and it's a better idea to take the risk of 10-20 Jordan Dankses or Trayce Thompson's making it and becoming a superstar than drafting the likes of Royce Ring, Broadway, McCulloch or Poreda in the first round (well, Aaron was LH and at least had some above average heat at one point). Plus it helped to keep his brother in the fold, there was that theory as well. He had all the raw physical tools (not unlike BA) that you look for in a young outfielder, not unlike our drafting of Sweeney. The problem has always been the long swing, power and K numbers. That's what happens with 90% of toolsy outfield prospects, they go bust.

 

And saying is Cespedes worth 8-10 Joe Borchards in terms of price isn't quite the point, although the numbers are scary.

 

If nothing else, it makes the Viciedo and Ramirez signings look even more "genius" in retrospect. Then again, if we just had average results in the Dominican and Venezuela over the last decade, our farm system would actually be competitive vis a vis the rest of MLB.

Edited February 8, 201214 yr by caulfield12

In the end, you take risks.

 

We've seen that money go to the likes of Silverio, Anderson Gomes and Orlando...and it's a better idea to take the risk of 10-20 Jordan Dankses or Trayce Thompson's making it and becoming a superstar than drafting the likes of Royce Ring, Broadway, McCulloch or Poreda in the first round (well, Aaron was LH and at least had some above average heat at one point). Plus it helped to keep his brother in the fold, there was that theory as well. He had all the raw physical tools (not unlike BA) that you look for in a young outfielder, not unlike our drafting of Sweeney. The problem has always been the long swing, power and K numbers. That's what happens with 90% of toolsy outfield prospects, they go bust.

 

And saying is Cespedes worth 8-10 Joe Borchards in terms of price isn't quite the point, although the numbers are scary.

 

If nothing else, it makes the Viciedo and Ramirez signings look even more "genius" in retrospect. Then again, if we just had average results in the Dominican and Venezuela over the last decade, our farm system would actually be competitive vis a vis the rest of MLB.

I think some of this was fallout from Wilder and his kickback scheme. Players may have been hesitant to sign knowing they has to give some of the bonus to them.

I think some of this was fallout from Wilder and his kickback scheme. Players may have been hesitant to sign knowing they has to give some of the bonus to them.

 

Another reason for KW to fall on his sword, in the collective scheme of things.

 

Still...I'm sure he learned a valuable lesson. But that same type of situation toppled Bowden and Jose Blame It On Rijo in Washington.

Another reason for KW to fall on his sword, in the collective scheme of things.

 

Still...I'm sure he learned a valuable lesson. But that same type of situation toppled Bowden and Jose Blame It On Rijo in Washington.

To be fair KW inherited him from Schueler and subsequently let him have too much free reign. I don't think KW should fall on the sword for someone he inherited even if it did happen on his watch. Bowden hired Rijo and thus was more responsible for him and his actions.

To be fair KW inherited him from Schueler and subsequently let him have too much free reign. I don't think KW should fall on the sword for someone he inherited even if it did happen on his watch. Bowden hired Rijo and thus was more responsible for him and his actions.

 

So after 47 pages of posts - are we close/in in the running for Cespedes? Do we even want him?

 

Where are we at with him? Wasn't he meeting with the Marlins yesterday or today?