Greg Hibbard Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 02:51 PM) Two weeks? He's .159/.293/.415/.708 since may 30. He's whiffed 41 times in his last 82 at bats (99 plate appearances). That's is Sigorney Weaver's face-like scary. We'll see what happens. But get off this as long as Dunn hit 55 HRs stuff. He's not going to do that if he doesn't somewhat cut that K rate down. If Dunn hits 55 homers, 99% of people, including baseball analysts, don't care how much he strikes out. I'm sorry that that's unacceptable to you, but most people do not share your opinion. He will not continue at his season worst 3 week clip for this season. 2011 wasn't his entire career, and these three weeks will not make for a season. This thread ought to be pretty hilarious when he hits like 5 jacks in a week soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 02:57 PM) This thread ought to be pretty hilarious when he hits like 5 jacks in a week soon. I love your confidence and hope you are correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 02:59 PM) I love your confidence and hope you are correct. Should I take Paul Konerko's last three weeks and hope he isn't reverting to 2003? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 02:57 PM) If Dunn hits 55 homers, 99% of people, including baseball analysts, don't care how much he strikes out. I'm sorry that that's unacceptable to you, but most people do not share your opinion. He will not continue at his season worst 3 week clip for this season. 2011 wasn't his entire career, and these three weeks will not make for a season. This thread ought to be pretty hilarious when he hits like 5 jacks in a week soon. You laugh at the thread, but you should also laugh at anyone who really thinks Dunn will hit 55 homers. You want to look at his career numbers for everything else, you should probably look at them in the HR column as well. Also, 2011 did happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 02:59 PM) Should I take Paul Konerko's last three weeks and hope he isn't reverting to 2003? Here you were rolling and then you type something like this. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a...od-player-ever/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:02 PM) You laugh at the thread, but you should also laugh at anyone who really thinks Dunn will hit 55 homers. You want to look at his career numbers for everything else, you should probably look at them in the HR column as well. Also, 2011 did happen. I wasn't the one who originally said he was going to hit 55 homers. I think Dunn will hit about 45 homers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:02 PM) Here you were rolling and then you type something like this. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a...od-player-ever/ It's hyperbole. I've read that article before, and I know what happened last year. I think I'll take the first 6 weeks of this season as a sign that 2011 Dunn was an outlier rather than disregard the man's entire career because of a 20 game slump after a tear to start the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:02 PM) You laugh at the thread, but you should also laugh at anyone who really thinks Dunn will hit 55 homers. You want to look at his career numbers for everything else, you should probably look at them in the HR column as well. Also, 2011 did happen. Wait a minute. You have the audacity to say that a guy that hasn't hit over 40 since like 2004 is suddenly going to hit 55 despite a 40% k-rate? YOU GOTTA BE BLEEPIN' ME!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hogan873 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I can see both sides of the argument regarding strikeouts. However, someone hit it on the head when they said strikeouts are empty outs. Granted, one has a chance to create two outs with a groundball when there are runners on, but putting the ball into play is better than letting it land in the catcher's glove at the umpire rings him up. A flyball can score a guy from third. A strikeout cannot. A groundball to the right side can score a guy from third. A strikeout cannot. A groundball could be...a hit! A strikeout cannot. That being said, we know Adam Dunn is going to strikeout a lot. But being on pace for more than 250? He needs to make an adjustment. He's strong enough to swing at outside pitches and poke them to left field. Imagine if he could do that more often. It would eliminate the shift, or at a minimum reduce the dramatic shift. He's in a major slump right now, and we're more concerned than we might be over another player because of 2011. If he doesn't get a few hits soon and reduce the strikeouts a bit, he could be below .200...and soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:02 PM) I wasn't the one who originally said he was going to hit 55 homers. I think Dunn will hit about 45 homers. Which he's done once in his career. 8 years ago. So pretty unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:05 PM) Wait a minute. You have the audacity to say that a guy that hasn't hit over 40 since like 2004 is suddenly going to hit 55 despite a 40% k-rate? YOU GOTTA BE BLEEPIN' ME!!!!! You were the one who brought up 55 homers in this thread. Straw man, much? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:06 PM) Which he's done once in his career. 8 years ago. So pretty unlikely. How many other times has Dunn hit 23 homers in his first 73 games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:06 PM) I can see both sides of the argument regarding strikeouts. However, someone hit it on the head when they said strikeouts are empty outs. Granted, one has a chance to create two outs with a groundball when there are runners on, but putting the ball into play is better than letting it land in the catcher's glove at the umpire rings him up. A flyball can score a guy from third. A strikeout cannot. A groundball to the right side can score a guy from third. A strikeout cannot. A groundball could be...a hit! A strikeout cannot. That being said, we know Adam Dunn is going to strikeout a lot. But being on pace for more than 250? He needs to make an adjustment. He's strong enough to swing at outside pitches and poke them to left field. Imagine if he could do that more often. It would eliminate the shift, or at a minimum reduce the dramatic shift. He's in a major slump right now, and we're more concerned than we might be over another player because of 2011. If he doesn't get a few hits soon and reduce the strikeouts a bit, he could be below .200...and soon. And Dunn didn't hit into many DPs even when he was "only" striking out 175 times a year. The shift helps him with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:06 PM) You were the one who brought up 55 homers in this thread. Straw man, much? In this thread? Yeah. But I've seen others say in multiple threads that Dunn can K 250+ times as long as he hits 50 or more HRs. It's not gonna happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:14 PM) In this thread? Yeah. But I've seen others say in multiple threads that Dunn can K 250+ times as long as he hits 50 or more HRs. It's not gonna happen He's on pace for 261 k's and 51 homers. Obviously, it could happen exactly that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 02:59 PM) Should I take Paul Konerko's last three weeks and hope he isn't reverting to 2003? That depends, what injury is Adam Dunn dealing with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 (edited) QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:07 PM) How many other times has Dunn hit 23 homers in his first 73 games? Quite a few times actually. He did hit 21 homers the second half of 2004 when he hit a career high 46. In 2005 he hit 17 second half homers. In 2003 he had very similar stats in the first half to the stats now. 25 homers 100 strikeouts. He hit 2 in about 117 plate appearances the second half. Probably got hurt. But normally he hits between 14-16 second half homers when he was consistently hitting 40 a year. Will that mean even more strikeouts and an even lower batting average and OBP? Edited June 26, 2012 by Dick Allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 (edited) Guys, if you're seriously still concerned about batting average, you need to learn about linear weights. Tom Tango devised a system of measuring overall offensive contribution by including all hitting events based on their relative expected run values. You don't have to subjectively decide how much strikeouts matter when compared to homeruns because it has been done mathematically: http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?t...=Linear_Weights The most commonly used statistic that comes from this is wOBA, and looking at a hitter's wOBA is a much better way than batting avg, on base percentage, total bases, homeruns, etc. to evaluate his performace in a vacuum. wOBA is scaled in such a way to match OBP -- so if someone's wOBA number would be a good OBP number, then it's also a good wOBA. Adam Dunn's wOBA is .375, and that is fine and dandy. Edited June 26, 2012 by Eminor3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockRaines Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:18 PM) That depends, what injury is Adam Dunn dealing with? Whifferitis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:34 PM) Whifferitis Sounds like case for Doc McStuffins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 03:32 PM) Guys, if you're seriously still concerned about batting average, you need to learn about linear weights. Tom Tango devised a system of measuring overall offensive contribution by including all hitting events based on their relative expected run values. You don't have to subjectively decide how much strikeouts matter when compared to homeruns because it has been done mathematically: http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?t...=Linear_Weights The most commonly used statistic that comes from this is wOBA, and looking at a hitter's wOBA is a much better way than batting avg, on base percentage, total bases, homeruns, etc. to evaluate his performace in a vacuum. wOBA is scaled in such a way to match OBP -- so if someone's wOBA number would be a good OBP number, then it's also a good wOBA. Adam Dunn's wOBA is .375, and that is fine and dandy. .329 in June. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 04:09 PM) .329 in June. Which, if that represents his slumps, is totally fine as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigEdWalsh Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I think he'll heat up again. But he is who we thought he is. I doubt he'll hit much over .230. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Real Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 voted .220-.229, this just goes to show how ..well i don't want to use the term 'useless' but maybe overexaggerated? batting average is. if you're walking a s***load and hitting bomb after bomb after bomb, well yeah you have a GREAT hitter i'll eat my crow since I predicted he would have another awful season, i was dead wrong there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 26, 2012 -> 04:14 PM) Which, if that represents his slumps, is totally fine as well. It is about two weeks of really good, and a week and a half of awful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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