The Adam Dunn Batting Average Poll

[iamshack]

Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien

 

25 of Adam Dunn's 34 home runs have come when White Sox are either down a run or tied.

That is absolutely incredible.

[southsider2k5]

That is absolutely incredible.

 

Turns out there is a reason for that...

 

Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien

 

Correction about my Adam Dunn stat from yesterday. 17 of his 34 HRs have come with White Sox tied or within a run. Sorry about that.

[Lillian]

It still seems to me that he would benefit by trying to do whatever he could to make better contact. As strong as he is, balls are going to leave the yard, without his having to take such a long swing. He doesn't need to hit the ball 450 feet. He just needs to hit it long enough to clear the fense.

 

Barry Bonds, used a light bat, choked up on it, and we know how that worked out. Why not try a similar approach?

Every time he strikes out, and fails to make contact, he reduces the odds of hitting a homer to zero.

Wouldn't it make more sense to concentrate on making contact? A good portion of Dunn's swings and misses could result in home runs, if he could just put the bat on the ball.

[iamshack]

Turns out there is a reason for that...

 

Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien

 

Correction about my Adam Dunn stat from yesterday. 17 of his 34 HRs have come with White Sox tied or within a run. Sorry about that.

That seems more reasonable. I wonder how many have come when we were just plain losing or tied though...

[johnnymick]

It still seems to me that he would benefit by trying to do whatever he could to make better contact. As strong as he is, balls are going to leave the yard, without his having to take such a long swing. He doesn't need to hit the ball 450 feet. He just needs to hit it long enough to clear the fense.

 

Barry Bonds, used a light bat, choked up on it, and we know how that worked out. Why not try a similar approach?

Every time he strikes out, and fails to make contact, he reduces the odds of hitting a homer to zero.

Wouldn't it make more sense to concentrate on making contact? A good portion of Dunn's swings and misses could result in home runs, if he could just put the bat on the ball.

 

Theoretically, it makes sense. Practically, though, it would be tough to just simply change an approach that he has been going with his whole career (and probably his whole life). Who knows how he would respond to that since he has never really tried that. Also, it is going to be tough to convince someone who has made it to the MLB, made millions, and is currently leading in HRs to change the way he goes about his ABs for a new approach he does not know.

 

This is the Dunn we signed up for. I remember fans from Reds and Nationals saying that we will be frustrated with him, but this is what we will get. He gets a lot of walks, a lot of strikeout, and a lot of home runs. And this year, he is the epitome of that.

[wagner10]

It still seems to me that he would benefit by trying to do whatever he could to make better contact. As strong as he is, balls are going to leave the yard, without his having to take such a long swing. He doesn't need to hit the ball 450 feet. He just needs to hit it long enough to clear the fense.

 

Barry Bonds, used a light bat, choked up on it, and we know how that worked out. Why not try a similar approach?

Every time he strikes out, and fails to make contact, he reduces the odds of hitting a homer to zero.

Wouldn't it make more sense to concentrate on making contact? A good portion of Dunn's swings and misses could result in home runs, if he could just put the bat on the ball.

 

I like the idea of this but you have to remember Bonds was not always as HUGE as he was. He was a guy who hit .298 for a career. He was a fast guy when he played for PIT as well instead of only a home run threat. I think Dunn also has more natural strength than bonds did and a lighter bat is not always better for a bigger guy. If anyone on the team really needs to use a smaller lighter bat it would be Beck. I do like the idea just dont know if the results would be the same for Adam

[Lillian]

My point is simply that he should do whatever he could to increase his rate of contact. Everytime he strikes out, he misses an opportunity to hit the ball out of the Park. He has the natural strength that Bonds only acquired with PEDS. It just seems a shame to use it for tape measure homers, instead of more hits and homers, even if the ball didn't travel quite so far. I guess it's the inverse of the old adage about "quantity vs. quality". I'd take more, even if they weren't so prodigious. He could probably hit 60 HRs every year, if he could just put the bat on the ball a little more frequently.

 

There are various ways that he could increase his rate of contact:

1) Choke up

2) Use a lighter bat

3) Shorten his swing

4) Hit outside pitches to the opposite field

 

It seems odd that he has never tried any of these things. His homers are not a function of his great skill as a hitter, but rather a function of his natural strength.

A .200 batting average, and all of those strike outs should tell him that he is not utilizing his talent to the fullest. However, I understand that he will likely never change.

Edited August 16, 2012 by Lillian

[wagner10]

I agree with everything your saying but you have to remember the shift takes away alot of base hit opps and by shortening up his swing he would probably hit the right center gap more but the CF is out there just hanging out. I agree he should change some things but in the later half of the season which is now he should not. I know the BA is low but by changing things now we could see him struggle more and we cannot afford Dunn to drop his average far below the mendoza line.

[RZZZA]

I'm just happy he's hitting lefties this year

[wagner10]

Im happy his OBP is just slightly lower than Rios when hes only hitting .208. Oh and the fact hes leading the majors in bombs thats always a good guy to have on the squad. The fact he is hitting LHP is crazy compared to how atrocious he was last year against it.

[Jake]

It should be pretty well accepted that generally speaking the more lengths you go to to make contact, the less your power will be.

[Greg Hibbard]

Is there anyone in this thread, especially the naysayers towards Dunn's average, that wouldn't have taken the following proposition before this season:

 

"Adam Dunn will hit 40 homers, drive in 100 and walk 100 times, but in order to do that, he will hit around .200 and strike out 240 times."

 

I mean....seriously?

 

Dunn is who we thought he is (to paraphrase Denny Green)

Edited August 17, 2012 by Greg Hibbard

[southsider2k5]

Is there anyone in this thread, especially the naysayers towards Dunn's average, that wouldn't have taken the following proposition before this season:

 

"Adam Dunn will hit 40 homers, drive in 100 and walk 100 times, but in order to do that, he will hit around .200 and strike out 240 times."

 

I mean....seriously?

 

Dunn is who we thought he is (to paraphrase Denny Green)

 

I would not have. I would have though if the average was that low, and the K's were that high, that his power numbers would not have recovered either.

[Greg Hibbard]

I would not have. I would have though if the average was that low, and the K's were that high, that his power numbers would not have recovered either.

 

Out of curiosity, would you have taken Dunn as-is or Dunn with a .244 average and only 25 home runs, 80 RBI, 80 bb and 180 ks?

 

As a side note, I wonder if taking too many walks is killing his batting average.

[cabiness42]

Out of curiosity, would you have taken Dunn as-is or Dunn with a .244 average and only 25 home runs, 80 RBI, 80 bb and 180 ks?

 

As a side note, I wonder if taking too many walks is killing his batting average.

 

His highest walk year was 2002 and he batted .249. There doesn't seem to be a lot of correlation.

[Lillian]

It should be pretty well accepted that generally speaking the more lengths you go to to make contact, the less your power will be.

 

You raise a very interesting point. In the interest of clarity, are you suggesting that if Dunn could put the bat on the ball with the average consistency of most good power hitters, that his home run totals would necessarily decline?

Konerko, Pujols, Cano and the youngster Trout are all guys who hit home runs, but don't strike out 1/3 of the time, which is exactly what Adam has done since donning a Sox uniform.

 

I contend the opposite. I assert that because of his extraordinary size and natural strength, that a very high percentage of his fly balls are going to leave the yard. Logically, the more fly balls he can hit, the more homers he will have, and the more times he hits the ball, the greater the chance for him to hit one of those fly balls, which in turn might go over the fence.

 

Moreover, no one is considering the relatively few number of doubles, and singles that he hits, also a direct result of the high strike outs. That means that he is not giving his team mates much of an opportunity to drive him in. Consider this: Dunn has scored an incredibly few 69 runs, for a guy with 34 HRs and 81 RBI's. Think about it this way; he has only scored 35 runs, which he didn't drive in himself with a homer. When you factor in the Sox' high team batting average with runners in scoring position, it becomes quite apparent that unless Dunn hits a homerun, he doesn't do much offensively to help his team. He is batting in front of Konerko, Rios and A. J., all of whom have had great years offensively, and yet Dunn has only scored 35 times when he didn't drive himself in with a homer!! As an aside, it's another good argument for moving him down from 3RD in the order.

 

Look, I'm thrilled with his "comeback year", and the fact that he has hit a lot of very meaningful homers, but it seems a shame that he can't seem to do better than his .200 batting average, with all of those strike outs. Even his OBP is relatively low, when you consider all of the walks he takes.

Just because he's having a good year, doesn't mean that it couldn't be significantly better. I think that he could be one of the best hitters in the game, if he could just figure out a way to make contact more often. Actually, the higher avg. and OBP, with fewer strike outs, which he produced in the N. L., would be fine with me. An average of .260 would look pretty good about now, wouldn't it?

Edited August 17, 2012 by Lillian

[jenksycat]

I would not have. I would have though if the average was that low, and the K's were that high, that his power numbers would not have recovered either.

 

That wasn't the question though, the power numbers are there.

[cabiness42]

Even with Dunn, the Sox are 17th in MLB in strikeouts and 26th in walks. They have plenty of other people in the lineup that are putting the ball in play quite a bit.

 

I do find it remarkable that aside from his homers, Dunn has only scored 35 runs while being on base 136 times, especially given that the three guys after him in the lineup are batting .316, .309, and .296.

[lasttriptotulsa]

You raise a very interesting point. In the interest of clarity, are you suggesting that if Dunn could put the bat on the ball with the average consistency of most good power hitters, that his home run totals would necessarily decline?

Konerko, Pujols, Cano and the youngster Trout are all guys who hit home runs, but don't strike out 1/3 of the time, which is exactly what Adam has done since donning a Sox uniform.

 

I contend the opposite. I assert that because of his extraordinary size and natural strength, that a very high percentage of his fly balls are going to leave the yard. Logically, the more fly balls he can hit, the more homers he will have, and the more times he hits the ball, the greater the chance for him to hit one of those fly balls, which in turn might go over the fence.

 

Moreover, no one is considering the relatively few number of doubles, and singles that he hits, also a direct result of the high strike outs. That means that he is not giving his team mates much of an opportunity to drive him in. Consider this: Dunn has scored an incredibly few 69 runs, for a guy with 34 HRs and 81 RBI's. Think about it this way; he has only scored 35 runs, which he didn't drive in himself with a homer. When you factor in the Sox' high team batting average with runners in scoring position, it becomes quite apparent that unless Dunn hits a homerun, he doesn't do much offensively to help his team. He is batting in front of Konerko, Rios and A. J., all of whom have had great years offensively, and yet Dunn has only scored 35 times when he didn't drive himself in with a homer!! As an aside, it's another good argument for moving him down from 3RD in the order.

 

Look, I'm thrilled with his "comeback year", and the fact that he has hit a lot of very meaningful homers, but it seems a shame that he can't seem to do better than his .200 batting average, with all of those strike outs. Even his OBP is relatively low, when you consider all of the walks he takes.

Just because he's having a good year, doesn't mean that it couldn't be significantly better. I think that he could be one of the best hitters in the game, if he could just figure out a way to make contact more often. Actually, the higher avg. and OBP, with fewer strike outs, which he produced in the N. L., would be fine with me. An average of .260 would look pretty good about now, wouldn't it?

 

De Aza only has 4 more runs scored and he's our leadoff hitter. 69 runs with almost a third of the season left is not incredibly few especially for a guy lacking speed. Sure he's only hittin around .210 but I would venture a guess that the shift cost him .030 on his average minimum. As you say maybe he should go the other way. That would cut down on his power numbers significantly. If it was as cut and dry as you make it seem don't you think that he or the coaches on the staff who have spent their entire adult lives in professional baseball would have figured it out and not some random person on a message board? Bottom line is Adam Dunn is payed to hit home runs, not slap singles. He knows what it takes to make that happen and that's what he's doing.

[southsider2k5]

That wasn't the question though, the power numbers are there.

 

He said taken the proposition. As in bet. At least that is how I read it.

[southsider2k5]

De Aza only has 4 more runs scored and he's our leadoff hitter. 69 runs with almost a third of the season left is not incredibly few especially for a guy lacking speed. Sure he's only hittin around .210 but I would venture a guess that the shift cost him .030 on his average minimum. As you say maybe he should go the other way. That would cut down on his power numbers significantly. If it was as cut and dry as you make it seem don't you think that he or the coaches on the staff who have spent their entire adult lives in professional baseball would have figured it out and not some random person on a message board? Bottom line is Adam Dunn is payed to hit home runs, not slap singles. He knows what it takes to make that happen and that's what he's doing.

 

I really don't think it would cut down on his power "significantly". The dude is massively strong. If he is pulling the ball 450 feet, I don't see why he can't go 400 to Oppo. I have seen him do it before.

[Greg Hibbard]

He said taken the proposition. As in bet. At least that is how I read it.

 

I meant it as you can have one as long as you take the other. Sorry.

[southsider2k5]

I meant it as you can have one as long as you take the other. Sorry.

 

Gotcha. My bad.

[Dick Allen]

Dunn now has the same amount of official ABs as last year. 9 more plate appearances He has 20 more hits. 21 more extra base hits. 23 more homers. 9 more walks and 7 less strike outs. The more contact he makes, the more homers he will hit. Not less. Imagine what his numbers would look like if he was at the 140 strikeout mark now.

[Kyyle23]

You raise a very interesting point. In the interest of clarity, are you suggesting that if Dunn could put the bat on the ball with the average consistency of most good power hitters, that his home run totals would necessarily decline?

Konerko, Pujols, Cano and the youngster Trout are all guys who hit home runs, but don't strike out 1/3 of the time, which is exactly what Adam has done since donning a Sox uniform.

 

I contend the opposite. I assert that because of his extraordinary size and natural strength, that a very high percentage of his fly balls are going to leave the yard. Logically, the more fly balls he can hit, the more homers he will have, and the more times he hits the ball, the greater the chance for him to hit one of those fly balls, which in turn might go over the fence.

 

Moreover, no one is considering the relatively few number of doubles, and singles that he hits, also a direct result of the high strike outs. That means that he is not giving his team mates much of an opportunity to drive him in. Consider this: Dunn has scored an incredibly few 69 runs, for a guy with 34 HRs and 81 RBI's. Think about it this way; he has only scored 35 runs, which he didn't drive in himself with a homer. When you factor in the Sox' high team batting average with runners in scoring position, it becomes quite apparent that unless Dunn hits a homerun, he doesn't do much offensively to help his team. He is batting in front of Konerko, Rios and A. J., all of whom have had great years offensively, and yet Dunn has only scored 35 times when he didn't drive himself in with a homer!! As an aside, it's another good argument for moving him down from 3RD in the order.

 

Look, I'm thrilled with his "comeback year", and the fact that he has hit a lot of very meaningful homers, but it seems a shame that he can't seem to do better than his .200 batting average, with all of those strike outs. Even his OBP is relatively low, when you consider all of the walks he takes.

Just because he's having a good year, doesn't mean that it couldn't be significantly better. I think that he could be one of the best hitters in the game, if he could just figure out a way to make contact more often. Actually, the higher avg. and OBP, with fewer strike outs, which he produced in the N. L., would be fine with me. An average of .260 would look pretty good about now, wouldn't it?

 

You could put a dress on a pig, but it is still a pig. This is what Dunn does, always has been, always will be. he isnt going to magically start hitting in the .260s and driving the ball the other way because he wants to.