The argument can also be made that Biggio being left out HURTS Frank's chances... in that it shows how serious they are about getting a message sent about the entire era. A pal of mine was just saying that the Biggio thing terrifies him about Frank's prospects (b/c Craig is not some predictable roider name that should have been punished).

 

And if you want to keep it to sluggers, also consider Piazza. Greatest hitting catcher ever? Not a first balloter. This happened sans proof. Frank is also a sans-proof guy. Meanwhile Frank has his years of DHing (likely not an issue on its own) and now an era's stigma to battle.

 

Biggio stuck around way too long. His last two years were simply not that good.

I can't believe Biggio got so many votes. If Biggio got 70%, it would follow logically that Frank would get 95%. Now, there are too many variables involved in this case to predict so accurately...but IMO Biggio is not a HoFer at all and even if he is, Frank has a far better resume. Frank may be harmed by Maddux/Glavine, his position, a change in feelings towards steroid users, and lord knows what else.

Frank should be a sure-thing 1st ballot guy.

I think Biggio should have been elected. 3000 career hits and throughout the 90's he was a stud. Looking at his career stats, he should not be denied.

I want to say that he is but these voters are real dumb, so i'll say 2nd year.

 

Maddux will get in but it will be 75%-80% of the vote. As Joe P pointed out, six people did not vote for Hank Aaron.

We all need to remember that the voters are idiots.

The argument can also be made that Biggio being left out HURTS Frank's chances... in that it shows how serious they are about getting a message sent about the entire era. A pal of mine was just saying that the Biggio thing terrifies him about Frank's prospects (b/c Craig is not some predictable roider name that should have been punished).

 

And if you want to keep it to sluggers, also consider Piazza. Greatest hitting catcher ever? Not a first balloter. This happened sans proof. Frank is also a sans-proof guy. Meanwhile Frank has his years of DHing (likely not an issue on its own) and now an era's stigma to battle.

 

Piazza is a steroid guy. That's why he had no chance. If Biggio got 70% this year, Frank is a slam dunk for at least 75%.

He should be, but my gut says he goes second ballot.

but IMO Biggio is not a HoFer at all

 

According to Bill James, Biggio was the second best position player of the 90s (behind only Barry Bonds), and the 35th best position player of all time.

 

You don't think he's a hall of famer at all, huh? Interesting.

I used to think it was a lock, but in recent years not anymore. I'd give him a 5% chance of making it on the first ballot.

 

I'm the exact opposite. I've always known he would make it, but I had my doubts he would go first ballot. However, with all of the nonsense over the last two years and all of the writers complaining how hard it has been to make these votes, there's not a doubt in my mind that Frank, Maddux and Glavine all make it next year. The voters are waiting for a chance to make an easy decision, and these three are as easy as it gets.

I think the drive to "punish the cheaters" has the next logical step of rewarding the "non-cheaters" Frank heads that list.

 

This. 100% correct.

Tom Glavine has 305 wins, but he also has a career 3.95 FIP, which would put him in the following group (3.85-to-3.99 range)

 

Tom Candiotti

Mark Langston

Danny Darwin

Mike Flanagan

Dennis Martinez

Jimmy Key

Chuck Finley

David Wells

Jack McDowell

Kevin Millwood

Derek Lowe

Javier Vazquez

John Lackey

 

I only looked at starters with a career WAR of 30 or better.

 

Glavine does not impress me. He might be the most overrated SP of the past quarter century. Those wins throw people off, and then some.

Tom Glavine has 305 wins, but he also has a career 3.95 FIP, which would put him in the following group (3.85-to-3.99 range)

 

Tom Candiotti

Mark Langston

Danny Darwin

Mike Flanagan

Dennis Martinez

Jimmy Key

Chuck Finley

David Wells

Jack McDowell

Kevin Millwood

Derek Lowe

Javier Vazquez

John Lackey

 

I only looked at starters with a career WAR of 30 or better.

 

Glavine does not impress me. He might be the most overrated SP of the past quarter century. Those wins throw people off, and then some.

 

And you think that white haired old writer who still types his stories on a typewriter is gonna be looking at Glavine's FIP? Haha

 

And you think that white haired old writer who still types his stories on a typewriter is gonna be looking at Glavine's FIP? Haha

 

I never implied that he wouldn't make it. I'm just saying that he doesn't deserve it.

I never implied that he wouldn't make it. I'm just saying that he doesn't deserve it.

 

300 wins is 300 wins. I don't care what any advanced metrics say, 300 wins (without PED issues of course) is a ticket to Cooperstown.

According to Bill James, Biggio was the second best position player of the 90s (behind only Barry Bonds), and the 35th best position player of all time.

 

You don't think he's a hall of famer at all, huh? Interesting.

 

So Bill James should be the only voter for HOF? Saber metrics aren't the end all be all.

300 wins is 300 wins. I don't care what any advanced metrics say, 300 wins (without PED issues of course) is a ticket to Cooperstown.

 

In this day and age 300 wins is way bigger than it ever was historically with things like 7 man bullpens and the 5 man rotation. I'd go as far as to say 250 or 275 should be the new 300.

So Bill James should be the only voter for HOF? Saber metrics aren't the end all be all.

 

 

I know there are supposed to be statistics that neutralize for eras, but I am not particularly happy with how they function. For my two cents dominance in your own era is the most important factor for me.

He won't. Maddux and Glavine will get in first. He'll get inducted in 2015.

In this day and age 300 wins is way bigger than it ever was historically with things like 7 man bullpens and the 5 man rotation. I'd go as far as to say 250 or 275 should be the new 300.

 

Agreed. We may never see another 300 game winner. I'd say the only guy in baseball now with a decent chance is Sabathia (191 wins - age 32). Who knows if his body will hold up for another 7-8 years.

300 wins is 300 wins. I don't care what any advanced metrics say, 300 wins (without PED issues of course) is a ticket to Cooperstown.

 

That's an oversimplification, and then some.

 

Those 300 wins are a testament to how good the Atlanta Braves were as a team. Glavine was basically of the same caliber as guys like Jimmy Key and Mark Langston. He was a very good pitcher, no doubt, but he's not a legitimate hall of famer.

Edited January 11, 201313 yr by hammerhead johnson

So Bill James should be the only voter for HOF? Saber metrics aren't the end all be all.

 

Dude, it's Bill James. What are you going on about?

Dude, it's Bill James. What are you going on about?

 

Can he hit a curveball?

I think voters wanting to make a point will make Thomas a 90%+ first ballot guy. He seems to be the representative of the "he did it the right way, clean" crowd.

 

Agreed.

 

The sad thing will be if they also do an about face on any of the guys that were passed this year. I'd dislike seeing him go in alongside Sosa or Bonds. I would see some writers making certain Frank enters ahead of those guys. I just realized he's about the first player I really have cared about being in the Hall.

i wonder if you can be such an average pitcher and rack up 300 wins, why more non hall of fame pitchers haven't managed to do that? It seems pretty easy. Just look at the list of average players with similar stats. You'd think a few more of them would have over at least 200 wins.

He should be, but who knows. I couldn't believe it when they (ESPN radio) were talking about the hall of fame and they said Joe DiMaggio wasn't elected on first ballot.