flavum Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (Dunt @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 11:37 AM) Definite fit, not sure how he wouldn't be? 2 years left until free agency, Boras client, for a non-playoff team in the first year most likely. If the Sox are trading pieces, then it would be better to get players that are controllable for many years as they build toward being a winning team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunt Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 All good points. I think you do it if you can get him extended, but at this juncture I'm still most interested in the Rosario whispers. Wieters is a decent second option, I'd definitely like that more than Salty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2nd_city_saint787 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (Dunt @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 01:47 PM) All good points. I think you do it if you can get him extended, but at this juncture I'm still most interested in the Rosario whispers. Wieters is a decent second option, I'd definitely like that more than Salty. And why is that? The problem with Weiters is, while yes, he is a switch hitter, but he is much better as a RH hitter vs LHP. Over the last 3 years he's hit just .225/.289/.382 against RHP, which we all know the Sox face a lot of. You sign Salty with the hopes that he continues to hit RHP like he did last year(.294/.350/.523). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunt Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (scs787 @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 12:58 PM) And why is that? The problem with Weiters is, while yes, he is a switch hitter, but he is much better as a RH hitter vs LHP. Over the last 3 years he's hit just .225/.289/.382 against RHP, which we all know the Sox face a lot of. You sign Salty with the hopes that he continues to hit RHP like he did last year(.294/.350/.523). Never sign someone based on a career year, his numbers otherwise shout regression to the mean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (Dunt @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 12:14 PM) Never sign someone based on a career year, his numbers otherwise shout regression to the mean Yeah, Salty's BABIP last year was .372. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (Dunt @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 12:14 PM) Never sign someone based on a career year, his numbers otherwise shout regression to the mean Except that Saltalamacchia really is a platoon catcher, so if you realize that and limit his ABs against lefties, he's suddenly very valuable. Against RHP in his career, he's at .263/.327/.469/.795, while he's at .206/.267/.332/.599 against LHP. Keep either Phegley or Flowers on the roster to play against most lefties, and you have a pretty decent catching tandem on your hands. You will also have full control of him longer than you will Wieters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 12:23 PM) Except that Saltalamacchia really is a platoon catcher, so if you realize that and limit his ABs against lefties, he's suddenly very valuable. Against RHP in his career, he's at .263/.327/.469/.795, while he's at .206/.267/.332/.599 against LHP. Keep either Phegley or Flowers on the roster to play against most lefties, and you have a pretty decent catching tandem on your hands. You will also have full control of him longer than you will Wieters. And you want to pay a platoon catcher with questionable defense $10 million a year for multiple years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2nd_city_saint787 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Still though, even the previous 2 years he's out hit Weiters vs RHP. 2012- JS-.230/.299/.480 vs MW-.224/.303/.412 and 2011- JS- .247/.304/.481 vs MW- .237/.293/.372. Then you factor in the fact that you have to give up talent to get Wieters and I'll take Salty all day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 12:25 PM) And you want to pay a platoon catcher with questionable defense $10 million a year for multiple years? Yes. He is going to ultimately still play 100-120 games and receive 400+ plate appearances with good defense. If you consider this to be 2/3 of his value (because he's only playing 2/3 of the time) and that his full time value would be $15 million, it's pretty similar to giving a middle infielder who puts up a .270/.330/.450 line with good defense $15 million a year. If that were your teams biggest weakness, I'd have no problem doing that either. Over the past 3 years, teams would have typically paid $33.4 million for his previous 3 years, and I believe he ultimately probably lost some value over that time playing against LHP. Yes, he is absolutely worth $10 mill a year, but I wouldn't give him much, if any, more than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 12:31 PM) Yes. He is going to ultimately still play 100-120 games and receive 400+ plate appearances with good defense. If you consider this to be 2/3 of his value (because he's only playing 2/3 of the time) and that his full time value would be $15 million, it's pretty similar to giving a middle infielder who puts up a .270/.330/.450 line with good defense $15 million a year. If that were your teams biggest weakness, I'd have no problem doing that either. Over the past 3 years, teams would have typically paid $33.4 million for his previous 3 years, and I believe he ultimately probably lost some value over that time playing against LHP. Yes, he is absolutely worth $10 mill a year, but I wouldn't give him much, if any, more than that. If he was absolutely worth that much, I have a feeling the Red Sox would have at least made him a QO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (scs787 @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 12:58 PM) And why is that? The problem with Weiters is, while yes, he is a switch hitter, but he is much better as a RH hitter vs LHP. Over the last 3 years he's hit just .225/.289/.382 against RHP, which we all know the Sox face a lot of. You sign Salty with the hopes that he continues to hit RHP like he did last year(.294/.350/.523). Just so it's said...if we're looking over the multi-year horizon, I don't think we should be projecting "how many RH/LH pitchers do we face". It was only a couple years ago that the division was lining up lefties like Liriano, Johan, and Captain Cheeseburger against us. Now it's right handed yes, but Scherzer is a FA after next year, Verlander might be starting to slightly get old we hope, Shields isn't on the Royals for that long, and the Twins are still rebuilding their rotation. Next offseason we might not think this is a RHP dominated division any more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 12:42 PM) Just so it's said...if we're looking over the multi-year horizon, I don't think we should be projecting "how many RH/LH pitchers do we face". It was only a couple years ago that the division was lining up lefties like Liriano, Johan, and Captain Cheeseburger against us. Now it's right handed yes, but Scherzer is a FA after next year, Verlander might be starting to slightly get old we hope, Shields isn't on the Royals for that long, and the Twins are still rebuilding their rotation. Next offseason we might not think this is a RHP dominated division any more. Righties will still be the great majority of pitchers faced. There will be variance, but not HUGE variance. Also, with the current schedules, we play an awful lot of games outside the division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 12:33 PM) If he was absolutely worth that much, I have a feeling the Red Sox would have at least made him a QO. Not necessarily. It's speculated they want McCann pretty badly. The risk of Salta accepting the QO could have thrown the whole plan out the window. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 01:36 PM) Not necessarily. It's speculated they want McCann pretty badly. The risk of Salta accepting the QO could have thrown the whole plan out the window. Also, there is no such thing as universal value-to-team. Any given player has different value to different teams. Salty happens to fit the White Sox' needs well, but let's say some other team has a competent LHH backup that hits righties well - that immediately, all else equal, makes Salty less valuable to them than the White Sox. Whether or not Salty is "worth" $14.1M depends on the team that would be paying it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 01:45 PM) Also, there is no such thing as universal value-to-team. Any given player has different value to different teams. Salty happens to fit the White Sox' needs well, but let's say some other team has a competent LHH backup that hits righties well - that immediately, all else equal, makes Salty less valuable to them than the White Sox. Whether or not Salty is "worth" $14.1M depends on the team that would be paying it. It's also worth noting that there's a pretty significant difference between $10 mill [per year] and $14.1 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 01:49 PM) It's also worth noting that there's a pretty significant difference between $10 mill [per year] and $14.1 million. 41% to be exact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 01:49 PM) It's also worth noting that there's a pretty significant difference between $10 mill [per year] and $14.1 million. It's also worth noting, if, indeed he is offered 4 years $40 million, there is a significant chance his $14.1 qualifying offer would be rejected. Of course, his offers probably shrink if he was offered the QO. That, and the World Series benching, and his 2013 .372 BABIP, tell me the Red Sox think they can do better or a team winning the World Series at least makes the QO. Edited November 13, 2013 by Dick Allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 01:54 PM) It's also worth noting, if, indeed he is offered 4 years $40 million, there is a significant chance his $14.1 qualifying offer would be rejected. Not sure what you're getting at here. There was no qualifying offer made to Saltalamacchia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 01:56 PM) Not sure what you're getting at here. There was no qualifying offer made to Saltalamacchia What I'm getting at is if he were offered the QO, and is definitely worth the 4 year $40 million you claim, the worry the Red Sox would have of him taking it because they want McCann (someone else earlier in the thread) or don't want to pay him $14 million for one year, is probably moot, and the Red Sox get a draft pick to boot. If he is a 2-3 WAR player, that means he at least close to worth the QO. The Red Sox apparently don't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 02:02 PM) What I'm getting at is if he were offered the QO, and is definitely worth the 4 year $40 million you claim, the worry the Red Sox would have of him taking it because they want McCann (someone else earlier in the thread) or don't want to pay him $14 million for one year, is probably moot, and the Red Sox get a draft pick to boot. If he is a 2-3 WAR player, that means he at least close to worth the QO. The Red Sox apparently don't think so. If that's how you interpret it, then that's your perogative. I view it as them not wanting to risk $14 million on a 1 year deal when they are looking to upgrade to a guy like McCann for $16-18 mill a year over 6 years. Having 1 catcher make $16 million, another making $14.1 million, and a third making $3.1 million does not seem to be an efficient use of resources. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 (edited) QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 02:33 PM) If that's how you interpret it, then that's your perogative. I view it as them not wanting to risk $14 million on a 1 year deal when they are looking to upgrade to a guy like McCann for $16-18 mill a year over 6 years. Having 1 catcher make $16 million, another making $14.1 million, and a third making $3.1 million does not seem to be an efficient use of resources. Yet according to reports, the Red Sox would rather have Salty than pay McCann what you claim. They just don't think Salty is worth as much as you think, as they are looking for short term solutions until their prospects are ready. Certainly not McCann for 6 years. Edited November 13, 2013 by Dick Allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 02:42 PM) Yet according to reports, the Red Sox would rather have Salty than pay McCann what you claim. They just don't think Salty is worth as much as you think, as they are looking for short term solutions until their prospects are ready. Certainly not McCann for 6 years. Then they don't believe that Saltalamacchia is worth $14.1 million for this season. I don't either. If they are waiting for prospects, then they won't feel he is worth $40 million over 4 years. I do. I'd rather the Sox pay $28-32 million, but I hope they'd be willing to go as high as $40 million. If not, I'm not going to be upset. Maybe they're willing to go to $44 million, maybe only $24 million, maybe only 3 years. No matter what, Saltalamacchia is not going to make me upset. It's like you are trying to say "I disagree with you that Saltalamacchia is worth $40 million," and you are doing everything in your power to not actually say it. It's fine if you don't think he is worth that. It's fine if you don't think he's worth $24 million. I am not going to care if the Sox don't sign him and he signs for less than that elsewhere. All I am saying is that I'd be willing to give him a $40 million deal if I were in charge of the White Sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMOU Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 02:24 PM) Then they don't believe that Saltalamacchia is worth $14.1 million for this season. I don't either. If they are waiting for prospects, then they won't feel he is worth $40 million over 4 years. I do. I'd rather the Sox pay $28-32 million, but I hope they'd be willing to go as high as $40 million. If not, I'm not going to be upset. Maybe they're willing to go to $44 million, maybe only $24 million, maybe only 3 years. No matter what, Saltalamacchia is not going to make me upset. It's like you are trying to say "I disagree with you that Saltalamacchia is worth $40 million," and you are doing everything in your power to not actually say it. It's fine if you don't think he is worth that. It's fine if you don't think he's worth $24 million. I am not going to care if the Sox don't sign him and he signs for less than that elsewhere. All I am saying is that I'd be willing to give him a $40 million deal if I were in charge of the White Sox. I'm on the same page here, Wite. If not Salty, though, an upgrade over Flow-Gley is still the biggest offseason imperative for this fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2nd_city_saint787 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I'm gonna throw something new out there... 1. De Aza CF 2. Anthony Rendon 2B 3. Dunn DH 4. Abreu 1B 5. Salty C 6. Garcia RF 7. Viciedo LF 8. Gillaspie 3B 9. Ramirez SS Bench Konerko Beckham Flowers Danks 1.Sale 2.Santiago 3.Johnson 4.Danks 5.Rienzo/Gavin Floyd Quintana gets traded for Rendon/Matthew Skole/Nathan Karns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coco1997 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 QUOTE (scs787 @ Nov 13, 2013 -> 05:30 PM) I'm gonna throw something new out there... 1. De Aza CF 2. Anthony Rendon 2B 3. Dunn DH 4. Abreu 1B 5. Salty C 6. Garcia RF 7. Viciedo LF 8. Gillaspie 3B 9. Ramirez SS Bench Konerko Beckham Flowers Danks 1.Sale 2.Santiago 3.Johnson 4.Danks 5.Rienzo/Gavin Floyd Quintana gets traded for Rendon/Matthew Skole/Nathan Karns What happens to Keppinger? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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