March 13, 201412 yr It's possible you'll be an asset here but it'll be an uphill climb from this Power comes from the thighs. Everyone knows this -- especially Cubs fans.
March 13, 201412 yr QUOTE (GallonsOfSemien @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 01:21 PM) Power comes from the thighs. Everyone knows this -- especially Cubs fans. and Oprah
March 13, 201412 yr Well, one thing's for sure, Dayan Viciedo hitting 30 homers this year is a lot more likely than Dustin Ackley being a competent outfielder and putting up even a 750 OPS. If Hawkins and Barnum both bust, we would have no choice but to look for power outside of our organization. Who else besides Viciedo, Davidson and Abreu are capable of hitting for power? Tyler Flowers? Nobody can guarantee Garcia will do so, anymore than Ryan Sweeney. Andy Wilkins? Trayce Thompson? Edited March 13, 201412 yr by caulfield12
March 13, 201412 yr QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 10:50 AM) Where do you get the O-Swing for his first 3 years? Fangraphs only has it starting in 2002. I don't think it exists anywhere, unfortunately.
March 13, 201412 yr QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 02:43 PM) I don't think it exists anywhere, unfortunately. Lee's numbers improved the same year they started this, so wouldn't it make sense to think it was worse the 3 previous years?
March 13, 201412 yr QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 01:58 PM) Lee's numbers improved the same year they started this, so wouldn't it make sense to think it was worse the 3 previous years? Probably, but the first year they have it he's at 17%, which is just a grand canyon sized gap from even league average, let alone where Viciedo is. You could regress Lee all the way to 25% and still not even be in the same league as Viciedo. Your point that Viciedo can still improve is valid and I grant it. But there's not a lot of evidence that Viciedo and Lee are all that similar in terms of zone recognition. I would be shocked if anyone ever cut their O-Swing that drastically after 1000 PAs.
March 13, 201412 yr QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 04:48 PM) Probably, but the first year they have it he's at 17%, which is just a grand canyon sized gap from even league average, let alone where Viciedo is. You could regress Lee all the way to 25% and still not even be in the same league as Viciedo. Your point that Viciedo can still improve is valid and I grant it. But there's not a lot of evidence that Viciedo and Lee are all that similar in terms of zone recognition. I would be shocked if anyone ever cut their O-Swing that drastically after 1000 PAs. I don't agree with the Carlos Lee comparison either, but it gets used often. The one I use is Adrian Beltre. Here's the normal plate disciplines: Beltre- 33.1% O-Swing, 70.0% Z-Swing, 51.2% Swing; 65.5% O-Contact, 87.8% Z-Contact, 80.5% Contact Viciedo (same order)- 40.5%, 69.4%, 52.7%; 67.5%, 83.2%, 76.2% Based on this, Viciedo needs to hone in the free swinging a bit, but his contact rates are good. It's merely a matter of making more good contact. The PITCHf/x plate disciplines are eery (career rates). Beltre- 37.2%, 65.8%, 51.0%; 71.7%, 88.2%, 82.0% Viciedo- 38.1%, 67.3%, 51.8%; 65.9%, 82.7%, 76.2% They swing almost the exact same amount, but Beltre makes a little better contact. This is something where, over time, you can exhibit improvement by cutting down on the swing. The primary 2 differences between the two the GB/FB and the K%. Both hit about 19.5% line drives, but here's your GB/FB Beltre- 1.03 Viciedo- 1.43 and K% Beltre- 14.7% Viciedo- 21.5% Beltre's never really struck out, so this is the big flaw in Viciedo's game. If he can make more and better contact, well by golly gee we'll have an MVP candidate on our hands. And if Kate Upton said she wants to do me, well you get the point.
March 13, 201412 yr QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 02:18 PM) Well, one thing's for sure, Dayan Viciedo hitting 30 homers this year is a lot more likely than Dustin Ackley being a competent outfielder and putting up even a 750 OPS. If Hawkins and Barnum both bust, we would have no choice but to look for power outside of our organization. Who else besides Viciedo, Davidson and Abreu are capable of hitting for power? Tyler Flowers? Nobody can guarantee Garcia will do so, anymore than Ryan Sweeney. Andy Wilkins? Trayce Thompson? Sox probably have the most power potential in the league. And Garcia has monstrous power. Just needs to harness it.
March 14, 201412 yr QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 04:38 PM) Sox probably have the most power potential in the league. And Garcia has monstrous power. Just needs to harness it. Sure, but that's like saying Viciedo/Dunn/Hawkins/Mitchell/Thompson need to strike out less. The potential is there, sure...but it's meaningless until he does it in April-May-June-July. Everyone can look at his frame, his physical abilities...make future projections, but that's all they are at this point. I'm not convinced that Garcia's going to have more homers from this point (2014) on in his big league career than Viciedo.
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