Realistic 2015 Lineup

[witesoxfan]

I don't see why we can't give Dunn a qualifying offer and then try HIM at shortstop.

 

Oh my god this is the greatest idea I've ever read on this board.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Oh my god this is the greatest idea I've ever read on this board.

You and your buddy need to keep your ideas to yourselves IMO.

[witesoxfan]

You and your buddy need to keep your ideas to yourselves IMO.

 

The should have him pitch out of the bullpen too. Guys got a big arm. He was a U of Texas QB recruit. I'm sure he can groove some fastballs too.

 

[southsider2k5]

It's not the RH relievers that have failed us. Petricka and Putnam have been great. Webb has been good. Guerra has been OK. Belisario has not been very good, but he's really our only bad RH reliever. Sure, Lindstrom and Jones would help, but what we really needed early this year was a LOOGY who actually gets outs. Downs was terrible, Surkamp hasn't really gotten many chances- but regardless, we need another lefty in the bullpen.

 

The 8th and 9th innings have been a huge problem for this pen, at least until recently. If you put Jones and Lindstrom back into those spots, and are running guys like Putnam and Belly out for the 6th and 7th, the pen is MUCH deeper, and isn't giving up nearly as many leads this year.

[southsider2k5]

Amazing that people pencil in Viciedo and Flowers again but give up Ramirez like he's trash. Alexei's value won't be fully understood until he's gone.

 

Agreed. I don't think people appreciate how good he is for the Sox.

[Feeky Magee]

I think you're missing the larger view/point:

1) Leury has MLB defense at multiple positions, while Saladino does not

2) Leury has elite speed, while Saladino does not

3) Because of 1 + 2 Leury can be a PR for an MLB team as well as a late inning replacement and spot starter for an MLB team defensively, while Saladino really cannot

4) In terms of bat Leury has no bat whatsoever, but Saladino's bat is fringey

 

Is Saladino's fringey bat enough to make him more valuable to an MLB team than Leury? No, because these players exist absolutely everywhere. Saladino really has a very small chance of playing in the Majors, and if he does, he will have to be a Keppinger type and hit his way into the picture. Chris Getz by comparison was a much better prospect than Saladino & look at how long he stuck around. Pablo Ozuna was a SS coming up, look at how long he stuck around, and Pablo was long ago also a much better prospect than Saladino & better than Getz by quite a bit as well.

 

The general rule of thumb is that whatever the prospect is, he'll probably be a whole lot lesser at the MLB level than the "trajectory" indicated by his MiLB performance. Most of the tools you read about pretty much define the player and what he is and could be, and the difference is made up "between the ears" as Hawk would say, ie can he make the adjustments, is he mentally capable of dealing with failure, etc. In Saladino's case the tools aren't really there unlike Leury, and if he makes himself an MLB career he will have to do it by overachieving with the bat and so on.

 

You just can't expect that, and MiLB numbers you should ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS take with a grain of salt. Just because a player performs well against a bunch of guys who will never ever even in their wildest dreams sniff the MLB level doesn't mean he has a shot at dealing with the MLB game and MLB pitching specifically. MLB pitching is smarts/experience + stuff most of the time with each player having 2-4 pitches he can throw over for a strike, and in the minors it's just one or the other mostly, stuff (1 pitch usually, maybe a second) OR smarts/experience. You get a guy with a big fastball who can't throw good strikes and has a s***ty secondary offering or an Axelrod or something with a very limited arm but who knows how to attack a hitter's vulnerabilities. The MLB level - just think of how much money is in the game as a clue to how much more sophisiticated the MLB level is strategically vs. the minors (Robin the Genius notwithstanding).

I'm not missing the point, I'm disagreeing with it. Garcia's talents, at this moment in time, are far outweighed by his absolute nothingness with the bat. What you're saying would be accurate if the dude could put up like a 60-70 wRC+, but last year it was 25 and this year it's 20. That's indescribably bad, and no amount of pinch-running and defence is gonna make up for that. That's how you get -1.3 WAR in 220 PA. Put him back in the minors and see if he can develop something approaching a hit tool.

 

I don't know how you've decided that Saladino could not be a spot-starter defensively, he was the AAA All-Star starting shortstop this season, and all reviews of his shortstop defence are decent. That would likely make him more than decent elsewhere, and he's played 1B, 2B, 3B and LF as well as SS, and that's all this year. All the talk when Saladino got injured was that it was a shame because he'd been getting scouting buzz, he was close to MLB-ready and the org liked him and were preparing for a late-season call-up.

[The Ultimate Champion]

The should have him eat tacos out of the taco stand too. Guys got a big appetite for tacos. He ate a lot of tacos at the U of Texas. I'm sure he can eat some tacos too.

 

Fixed.

[witesoxfan]

Fixed.

 

Awww Dunn is better than Francis, c'mon now.

[Dick Allen]

Anyone ever check out Adam Dunn's minor league stats? He was Kris Bryant with fewer strikeouts.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Dick Allen

[The Ultimate Champion]

I'm not missing the point, I'm disagreeing with it. Garcia's talents, at this moment in time, are far outweighed by his absolute nothingness with the bat. What you're saying would be accurate if the dude could put up like a 60-70 wRC+, but last year it was 25 and this year it's 20. That's indescribably bad, and no amount of pinch-running and defence is gonna make up for that. That's how you get -1.3 WAR in 220 PA. Put him back in the minors and see if he can develop something approaching a hit tool.

 

I don't know how you've decided that Saladino could not be a spot-starter defensively, he was the AAA All-Star starting shortstop this season, and all reviews of his shortstop defence are decent. That would likely make him more than decent elsewhere, and he's played 1B, 2B, 3B and LF as well as SS, and that's all this year. All the talk when Saladino got injured was that it was a shame because he'd been getting scouting buzz, he was close to MLB-ready and the org liked him and were preparing for a late-season call-up.

No.

 

The bat doesn't matter.

 

Saladino doesn't have a MLB bat. Neither does Leury. Leury does so many other things well that he barely makes an MLB roster.

 

If Saladino was a legitimate MLB defensive SS we would know about it. Trust me on this.

[ILMOU]

Who called Alexei trash? As far as I can make out, there's a couple of us advocating trading him to the Yankees for some really good prospects.

Not I, looking like a 4 WAR player, again. An absolute bargain.

 

I'm presently in the camp of liking the luxury of auditioning the prospects that could be the heir apparent to Lexi at short, while keeping him around thru his 2016 option year - unless blown away in trade, or his skills erode quickly. There are doubts about each of the prospects that could take over at SS, and getting caught with the proverbial pants down by merely handing it to someone is a real risk, imo.

 

The fact that Lexi's baserunning is at a peak in his year 32 season, makes me think that his skinny frame will age acceptably, at least for the two coming seasons.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[The Ultimate Champion]

Again, Saladino will have to overachieve with the bat to be a Keppinger-like player.

 

I'm not hating, just trying to be realistic here. The road to the Majors for a player like Saladino is a long one, and if he gets there at all, it is likely only as a few ABs as a September callup before being removed from the roster.

 

That Angel Sanchez we claimed, Jake Elmore we claimed & let go, Jayson Nix, etc. these guys all have parts of their game that make them better bets as MLB UT types. None have made it. Every year there are tons of guys like Saladino fighting for jobs & none make it.

 

If Saladino could play a capable MLB SS we'd know because in our s***ty system he'd get the attention. Carlos Sanchez is marginalized as a SS here & he's a better spect than Saladino by a good bit IMO.

[Feeky Magee]

No.

 

The bat doesn't matter.

 

Saladino doesn't have a MLB bat. Neither does Leury. Leury does so many other things well that he barely makes an MLB roster.

 

If Saladino was a legitimate MLB defensive SS we would know about it. Trust me on this.

Saladino put up a 140 wRC+ at A, 144 at A+ and just did 134 at AAA. The best Leury ever did above rookie-ball was 104. Otherwise it's a bunch of 60s 70s and 80s. Saladino has also had markedly better plate discipline everywhere, which quite strongly correlates to eventual MLB performance. There's a substantial difference between their bats. Either way, I'm not even arguing Saladino is a starter. I'm arguing he's more likely to contribute positive value as a bench piece. Apart from generally being a better bat, he crushes lefties. We have a third baseman who destroys righties and can't hit lefties.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Saladino put up a 140 wRC+ at A, 144 at A+ and just did 134 at AAA. The best Leury ever did above rookie-ball was 104. Otherwise it's a bunch of 60s 70s and 80s. Saladino has also had markedly better plate discipline everywhere, which quite strongly correlates to eventual MLB performance. There's a substantial difference between their bats. Either way, I'm not even arguing Saladino is a starter. I'm arguing he's more likely to contribute positive value as a bench piece. Apart from generally being a better bat, he crushes lefties. We have a third baseman who destroys righties and can't hit lefties.

Just face it Leury is better . You know why ? Because he didn't get injured at the worst possible time for his career. Luck trumps all. You lose

[Feeky Magee]

Again, Saladino will have to overachieve with the bat to be a Keppinger-like player.

 

I'm not hating, just trying to be realistic here. The road to the Majors for a player like Saladino is a long one, and if he gets there at all, it is likely only as a few ABs as a September callup before being removed from the roster.

 

That Angel Sanchez we claimed, Jake Elmore we claimed & let go, Jayson Nix, etc. these guys all have parts of their game that make them better bets as MLB UT types. None have made it. Every year there are tons of guys like Saladino fighting for jobs & none make it.

 

If Saladino could play a capable MLB SS we'd know because in our s***ty system he'd get the attention. Carlos Sanchez is marginalized as a SS here & he's a better spect than Saladino by a good bit IMO.

He was starting to get attention until a meh 2012 and a really disappointing 2013. He was just starting to get attention again until the TJ.

 

Nathaniel Stoltz ‏@stoltz_baseball 1h

@jimcallisMLB Still no Ravelo. Man. Do like the Hansen call, though. He's hit 96 a few times lately. Heard lots of scouting buzz on Saladino

 

That's from an hour ago.

 

P.S. "Still no Ravelo" refers to the fact that Jim Callis did a White Sox 21-25 and Rangel Ravelo STILL didn't make it. Smdh.

[Dick Allen]

Saladino put up a 140 wRC+ at A, 144 at A+ and just did 134 at AAA. The best Leury ever did above rookie-ball was 104. Otherwise it's a bunch of 60s 70s and 80s. Saladino has also had markedly better plate discipline everywhere, which quite strongly correlates to eventual MLB performance. There's a substantial difference between their bats. Either way, I'm not even arguing Saladino is a starter. I'm arguing he's more likely to contribute positive value as a bench piece. Apart from generally being a better bat, he crushes lefties. We have a third baseman who destroys righties and can't hit lefties.

In 2012 both Leury and Saladino even though Saladino is 2 years older played in AA. Leury's wRC+ was 104, Saladino's 99. Last year Leury put up an 89 in AAA. Saladino repeated AA and put up an 87.

 

I AM SHOCKED YOU MISSED THIS.

 

BTW, if wRC+ in the minor leagues is really the end all, the White Sox and the rest of baseball are really missing the boat on Jordan Danks.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Feeky Magee]

In 2012 both Leury and Saladino even though Saladino is 2 years older played in AA. Leury's wRC+ was 104, Saladino's 99. Last year Leury put up an 89 in AAA. Saladino repeated AA and put up an 87.

 

I AM SHOCKED YOU MISSED THIS.

 

BTW, if wRC+ in the minor leagues is really the end all, the White Sox and the rest of baseball are really missing the boat on Jordan Danks.

My point is that Saladino's peaks have been legit excellent for the level. Leury's solitary peak was basically average for the level. We also know a lot about what Leury can do in the majors. 220 PA is not insignificant, especially when it results in a 22 wRC+, even if it's less than ideal circumstances. Jordan Danks has only done well when he's really old for a level, so that's not an accurate comp. We also have a decent sample of what he can do in the majors. We don't know about Saladino. Sure, there's a strong chance he can't hack it. But if his peaks are for real, he's got a way better chance than Leury does. Either way, it's worth finding out. In my opinion of course.

[Dick Allen]

My point is that Saladino's peaks have been legit excellent for the level. Leury's solitary peak was basically average for the level. We also know a lot about what Leury can do in the majors. 220 PA is not insignificant, especially when it results in a 22 wRC+, even if it's less than ideal circumstances. Jordan Danks has only done well when he's really old for a level, so that's not an accurate comp. We also have a decent sample of what he can do in the majors. We don't know about Saladino. Sure, there's a strong chance he can't hack it. But if his peaks are for real, he's got a way better chance than Leury does. Either way, it's worth finding out. In my opinion of course.

If we have enough infor to know what Leury is, using the same criteria, it's time to cut bait on Marcus Semien as well, correct?

[witesoxfan]

If we have enough infor to know what Leury is, using the same criteria, it's time to cut bait on Marcus Semien as well, correct?

 

Semien has a wRC+ of 118 in AAA this year.

[BaconOnAStick]

Starting Lineup

1 Adam Eaton L (8) $800k

2 Alexei Ramirez R (6) $10m

3 Jose Abreu R (3) $7m

4 Jason Heyward L (9) $13m

5 Avisail Garcia R (7)$650k

6 Carlos Santana S (DH) $6m

7 Marcus Semien R (5) $500k

8 Micah Johnson L (4) $500k

9 Yasmani Grandal S (2) $800

 

Bench

B Adrian Nieto S C / Tyler Flowers R C $500k

B Leury Garcia S INF/OF $600k

B Moises Sierra R OF $500k

B Andy Wilkins L 1B $500k

 

Rotation

1 Chris Sale L $6m

2 Jose Quintana L $3.5m

3 Brandon McCarthy R $6.5m

4 Hector Noesi R $875k

5 Scott Carroll R / Chris Beck R $500k

 

Bullpen

CL Carlos Rodon L $500k

SU Kevin Quackenbush R $650k

MR Jordan Walden R $2.4m

MR Jake Petricka R $650k

MR Andrew Miller L $7.5m

MR Daniel Webb R $600k

LR Scott Carroll R / Chris Beck R $500k

 

Payroll

+39.150m Positional Starters

+$2.1m Bench

+$17.375 Starters

+$14m Bullpen

+$4m John Danks (to SDP)

76.525 Total 2015 Commitment

 

Notes

Catcher: Three way competition between Yasmani Grandal, Tyler Flowers and Adrian Nieto for starting catcher. Nieto automatically on roster at least as backup defensive catcher

5th Starter: Carroll and Beck compete for 5th starter spot, loser goes to bullpen.

 

-------------

 

SP John Danks, 2B Gordon Beckham and $4m to San Diego Padres for RP Kevin Quackenbush and C Yasmani Grandal.

 

This appeals to San Diego because they are only on the hook for $10.5m, while Danks could easily find success from both Petco and the NL. That could make him very attractive to a team rebuilding to potentially flip at the deadline. Beckham as a possible reclamation project holds value too.

 

3B Conor Gillaspie, OF Dayan Viciedo, SS Tim Anderson and SP Francellis Montas to Atlanta Braves for OF Jason Heyward and RP Jordan Walden.

 

The blockbuster. It is unlikely Atlanta will want to pay Heyward after 2015, and with only one year left on his current contract he'll be quietly on the block for the right deal. Heyward would be a colossal acquisition, his OF defense alone would be worth 2 or 3 wins compared to Viciedo, but he fills the gaping need for a lefty power bat in the middle of the lineup. His offense is down this year, but part of buying low is accepting that risk. The Sox pay a hefty price, Gillaspie is about as good an option as can be found at 3rd this offseason, Viciedo has obvious untapped potential and Anderson/Montas constitute two B level prospects. This is more than enough value in exchange for one year of Heyward, so we get another BP arm thrown in. The Sox plan should immediately shift to an extension for Heyward, if not already having the trade hinge on an agreement.

 

SP Andre Rienzo, SP Erik Johnson and OF Courtney Hawkins to Cleveland Indians for 3B/1B/C Carlos Santana.

 

The Indians are kind of stupid and are somehow sick of Carlos Santana. I don't get it, but Rienzo, Johnson + Hawkins would actually get this done. Obvious filling of the DH need plus Santana can spell Abreu at 1st and (in a pinch) get behind the plate 2 or 3 times a year.

 

Sign RP Andrew Miller 2 years / $15m

 

Possible overpay, but the team maintains tons of payroll flexibility and can afford blowing some money. Going overboard to fix what went so catastrophically wrong in 2014 is defensible.

 

Sign SP Brandon McCarthy 1 year / $6.5m

 

McCarthy needs a "prove it" year before reentering free agency again in 2016, the Sox should be happy to give it to him. Especially when they really will only need the rotation spot he occupies filled for another year (if that) before Rodon enters.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Go back to your posts 2 years ago and last year. There is no way you thought he would be anywhere near as valuable this year.

 

He doesn't have to go. There aren't a ton of guys the White Sox have ready to try the position. Face it, if the Sox thought Semien was a SS, he'd be playing SS everyday. If they thought Sanchez was a SS, he wouldn't have been playing 2B the past few years. Odds are very long either is an everyday calibur major league SS. The White Sox have basically conceded that.

 

I mean I'm not going to go try to find posts from two years ago, but I know how I've always felt about him, and if I was advocating moving him, it was for the same reason as now, which is (1) guys that are 32 tend to begin getting worse and (2) our team is not good enough to get to the playoffs even with his contribution now. It's very simple, and really hardly personal to Alexei at all.

[witesoxfan]

Not trying to nitpick, but the only one of those moves I believe is legitimately possible is Andrew Miller, and I think he'd rather take a lower AAV and get a 3 year deal. Even still, he could probably make $7-8 mill over 3 years anyways.

[Dick Allen]

Semien has a wRC+ of 118 in AAA this year.

Yes, but not in the major leagues and he has more plate appearances than Leury.

[Dick Allen]

I mean I'm not going to go try to find posts from two years ago, but I know how I've always felt about him, and if I was advocating moving him, it was for the same reason as now, which is (1) guys that are 32 tend to begin getting worse and (2) our team is not good enough to get to the playoffs even with his contribution now. It's very simple, and really hardly personal to Alexei at all.

He had a 1.9 WAR in 2012, 3.2 WAR in 2013 and so far a 20.3 WAR in 2014. He doesn't appear to be slowing down too much or anywhere near being overpaid. Why, if you are trying to win, do you trade a reasonably priced SS for some question marks and then really have to be lucky to get half the performance out of his replacement?

1.9 WAR was his worst season since he's been an everyday player.

 

The not getting to the playoffs even with his contribution is pretty weak as well. Chris Sale hasn't made the playoffs. Neither has Abreu. Where do you draw the line on that argument?

Edited August 1, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Feeky Magee]

If we have enough infor to know what Leury is, using the same criteria, it's time to cut bait on Marcus Semien as well, correct?

Even ignoring the whole minor-league track record thing which I talked about extensively, 73 wRC+ is slightly more than 22