Yoan Moncada signs with Red Sox

[Chisoxfn]

Moncada basically has to be Mike Trout to justify it.

Not really. If he was an above average player, it would be worth it, imo. If he was a perennial all star, more than worth it. To say he has to be Mike Trout is kind of crazy. If he was Mike Trout, you are talking about a total steal.

[Bob Sacamano]

name='southsider2k5' date='Feb 10, 2015 -> 08:01 AM' post='3114441']

At the cost we are talking about here ($80 million + no real international signings for two years) to me it isn't worth it.

 

Well, the two years thing may be irrelevant as they will probably move towards an international draft soon.

[LDF]

name='southsider2k5' date='Feb 10, 2015 -> 08:01 AM' post='3114441']

At the cost we are talking about here ($80 million + no real international signings for two years) to me it isn't worth it.

 

 

Well, the two years thing may be irrelevant as they will probably move towards an international draft soon.

 

that is what i said a month or so back. however as they kept on talking about it, someone wrote that the baseball bosses has mention that they will find a way to implement an intendment, which if any team has gone over the allotted salary cap for signing int't FA, they will still be penalize in the new int'l cba.

[LDF]

Not really. If he was an above average player, it would be worth it, imo. If he was a perennial all star, more than worth it. To say he has to be Mike Trout is kind of crazy. If he was Mike Trout, you are talking about a total steal.

 

what is the total cost, including penalty and this is good for how many yrs???

[witesoxfan]

what is the total cost, including penalty and this is good for how many yrs???

 

It's like signing a 16 year old Dominican player, though the age restrictions will be a little different (as he'd probably be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after 3 years instead of 4, but that's not going to matter). It's any other ordinary minor league player.

 

The penalty itself will be a virtual 100% penalty on whatever the signing bonus is. The signing bonus itself can be distributed over 3 years, but the overage tax has to be paid within 30 days. I'm not sure what exact amount the Sox have spent from their pool this year, but I'm sure it's close to the max. Thus, if he was given a signing bonus of $40 million, the Sox would owe Yoan Moncada $40 million over the next 3 years (at the very most) and they'd owe the Commissioner's Office a check for $40 million by March 10th.

 

Once he reaches the majors, it's like any other minor leaguer - the first 3 years of service time are rookie eligible contracts (unless the player qualifies as a Super 2 player, which is a certain percentage of games played and I don't have the time to look at what that is exactly), and then he becomes arbitration eligible.

 

Teams will be looking at the $80 million as total player cost, and if he's really as good as they say he is, he probably would make cost somewhere around $120 million until he hits free agency (using $500k, $500k, $500k, $8 mill, $13.5 million, $18 million as his six annual salaries...those could be incredibly wrong depending upon inflation and CBA changes, but we'll work with it for now).

 

If we are basing his cost upon $7 mill/WAR, he'd have to average 2.9 WAR per season over those first 6 years to justify the cost. That doesn't seem like a lot. Normally, the reason teams build around young players is because they can provide insane surplus value - a $500k rookie putting up a 1.5 WAR, which is a below average player, is providing somewhere around $10 million in surplus value. I don't think that has to always be the case, and really, if a team can afford $40 million (or whatever his bonus ends up being), it'd be absolutely worthwhile. I don't see that being even remotely likely for the Sox.

[LDF]

It's like signing a 16 year old Dominican player, though the age restrictions will be a little different (as he'd probably be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after 3 years instead of 4, but that's not going to matter). It's any other ordinary minor league player.

 

The penalty itself will be a virtual 100% penalty on whatever the signing bonus is. The signing bonus itself can be distributed over 3 years, but the overage tax has to be paid within 30 days. I'm not sure what exact amount the Sox have spent from their pool this year, but I'm sure it's close to the max. Thus, if he was given a signing bonus of $40 million, the Sox would owe Yoan Moncada $40 million over the next 3 years (at the very most) and they'd owe the Commissioner's Office a check for $40 million by March 10th.

 

Once he reaches the majors, it's like any other minor leaguer - the first 3 years of service time are rookie eligible contracts (unless the player qualifies as a Super 2 player, which is a certain percentage of games played and I don't have the time to look at what that is exactly), and then he becomes arbitration eligible.

 

Teams will be looking at the $80 million as total player cost, and if he's really as good as they say he is, he probably would make cost somewhere around $120 million until he hits free agency (using $500k, $500k, $500k, $8 mill, $13.5 million, $18 million as his six annual salaries...those could be incredibly wrong depending upon inflation and CBA changes, but we'll work with it for now).

 

If we are basing his cost upon $7 mill/WAR, he'd have to average 2.9 WAR per season over those first 6 years to justify the cost. That doesn't seem like a lot. Normally, the reason teams build around young players is because they can provide insane surplus value - a $500k rookie putting up a 1.5 WAR, which is a below average player, is providing somewhere around $10 million in surplus value. I don't think that has to always be the case, and really, if a team can afford $40 million (or whatever his bonus ends up being), it'd be absolutely worthwhile. I don't see that being even remotely likely for the Sox.

 

i don't know, but if i added the math right, lets say for Yoan, it will be 6 yrs, 120 w/fine. that is 20 per.

 

i would expect, for my 20 per, for a 20-30 hr, 120 rbi, and avg of 290 to start right away. lets also say, he will not start in the majors, nah. too much, even if he is as talented as they say.

 

btw thanks for the info.

Edited February 10, 2015 by LDF

[southsider2k5]

Not really. If he was an above average player, it would be worth it, imo. If he was a perennial all star, more than worth it. To say he has to be Mike Trout is kind of crazy. If he was Mike Trout, you are talking about a total steal.

 

Not really. Not only are you giving up all of his cheapness, you are giving up years worth of minor league players to get him.

 

You are also giving up something on the major league roster to pay for that $80 million. Potentially a deal like that could be the difference between having the room to re-sign Jeff Samardjiza.

 

Also don't forget that this deal does NOT include a major league contract, so you still have to pay him for the six (or more) years before he hits free agency time.

 

Now your total cost is Moncada's contract, 2 years worth of IL free agents, and a #2/#3 starting pitcher, plus any future major league contracts.

 

That is really steep for a 19 year old kid that isn't even major league ready today.

[Chisoxfn]

Not really. Not only are you giving up all of his cheapness, you are giving up years worth of minor league players to get him.

 

You are also giving up something on the major league roster to pay for that $80 million. Potentially a deal like that could be the difference between having the room to re-sign Jeff Samardjiza.

 

Also don't forget that this deal does NOT include a major league contract, so you still have to pay him for the six (or more) years before he hits free agency time.

 

Now your total cost is Moncada's contract, 2 years worth of IL free agents, and a #2/#3 starting pitcher, plus any future major league contracts.

 

That is really steep for a 19 year old kid that isn't even major league ready today.

2 years of players we sign over 300K. The reality is that is a relatively small list and you could minimize those impacts as well by signing a few more guys this year (once you broke the pool). If your scouting reports lead you to believe he is a generational type talent, I don't see why you don't do it. Clearly there is significant risk given his age, etc, however, it is pans out, you are talking about a cost controlled player going forward (since the reality is this is something that hits you early on and really means in future years you have a significant asset).

 

You clearly have to weight the risk / reward but that is up to the baseball people who have seen this guy. I haven't seen him play and have no idea how good people think he can be and what they think his floor is, etc.

[southsider2k5]

2 years of players we sign over 300K. The reality is that is a relatively small list and you could minimize those impacts as well by signing a few more guys this year (once you broke the pool). If your scouting reports lead you to believe he is a generational type talent, I don't see why you don't do it. Clearly there is significant risk given his age, etc, however, it is pans out, you are talking about a cost controlled player going forward (since the reality is this is something that hits you early on and really means in future years you have a significant asset).

 

You clearly have to weight the risk / reward but that is up to the baseball people who have seen this guy. I haven't seen him play and have no idea how good people think he can be and what they think his floor is, etc.

 

The top guys are gone for this year all ready. I am pretty sure the Top 30 16 year olds are all signed.

[LDF]

The top guys are gone for this year all ready. I am pretty sure the Top 30 16 year olds are all signed.

 

yes they are.

[NorthSideSox72]

My basic thought is, the Sox only sign 1 to 3 guys a year over 300k. That's 2 to 6 guys over two years, almost all 16 year olds, each with a less than 10% chance of ever making the majors.

 

Moncada, on the other hand, is a proven talent.

 

Basically, I don't care about the penalty. Blow by it if you want the guy. What it is MUCH more about in this case is the money. Is he worth, say, $40M in bonus PLUS a $40M penalty to be paid right away? Can the team even afford that? And what impact does that loss of money have on the rest of their plans?

 

Forget the penalties in a case like this. Worry more about penalties if we are talking about one guy pushing it over by a million, then it may not be worth the loss as that one guy's value is much lower and the penalty prospect-wise is the same.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

By the way, looking at the few Int'l signing guys (that the Sox signed) who are currently either ranked in our T30 or got votes, let's look at their bonuses:

 

Adolfo (10): $1.6M

Martinez (23): $250k

Olacio (got votes): $70k

 

That's it. Adolfo is a very real prospect of course, but he was also twice what the Sox spent on anyone else, ever, so he's an exception. Martinez and Olacio don't even cross the threshold.

 

Not saying that is the full picture, but wanted to point it out.

 

[LDF]

My basic thought is, the Sox only sign 1 to 3 guys a year over 300k. That's 2 to 6 guys over two years, almost all 16 year olds, each with a less than 10% chance of ever making the majors.

 

Moncada, on the other hand, is a proven talent.

 

Basically, I don't care about the penalty. Blow by it if you want the guy. What it is MUCH more about in this case is the money. Is he worth, say, $40M in bonus PLUS a $40M penalty to be paid right away? Can the team even afford that? And what impact does that loss of money have on the rest of their plans?

 

Forget the penalties in a case like this. Worry more about penalties if we are talking about one guy pushing it over by a million, then it may not be worth the loss as that one guy's value is much lower and the penalty prospect-wise is the same.

 

the sox have the money and can afford it. everything said otherwise is bull crap. the sox haven't break even yet on the money table to be spend and money coming in, and this is not even counting the fans season tickets let alone regular ticket sales and vending.

[witesoxfan]

Using the $7M/WAR data, he has to be an above average player - 2.5-3 WAR - to justify merely the initial cost. The problem lies in idea that, intuitively, this is actually the opposite of how free agency is supposed to work. Teams looking to win and compete will currently borrow from the future - whether it be prospects or money (and that money can be giving a guy a 5 year deal when you really only want him for the next 2-3 years, OR it can be backloading a contract so you can spend less now and then give him more money later on). The Sox got 1 year of Jeff Samardzija and 6 years of Michael Ynoa for 6 years each of Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, Rangel Ravelo, and Josh Phegley. That's definitely borrowing from the future for the right now.

 

However, in this instance, teams will be borrowing from the present to spend on the future - there is an immediate upfront cost to acquire this player, while he technically gets cheaper year after year (as opposed, at least, to the initial expenditure of ~$53.3 million ($40 million tax and $13.3 million in year one bonus paid)). Frankly, if there are teams who have money but not a very good team, those are the teams that make the most sense to splurge on a guy like Moncada. Frankly, with the Phillies payroll down, I have no idea why they aren't trying to put together a huge offer for him, because 2 years from now Ryan Howard and his atrocious contract are gone and then they have a guy in Moncada who can be a legitimately good player for them down the road.

 

If the Sox bring him in, I'm most certainly not going to be upset, and in fact, will be very excited. But from a financial aspect, if you really believe that Yoan Moncada is going to be a very good player, I don't know why you wouldn't give him a $50-60 million bonus. Assuming $40 million paid to him via MLB contracts through his first 6 seasons, here are the approximate break-evens (based on $7M/WAR):

 

$40 million - 2.9 WAR

$50 million - 3.3 WAR

$60 million - 3.8 WAR

 

The risk/reward becomes substantially lesser the more you spend, as is akin to happen when you spend more and more money, but if he is as good as Yasiel Puig at the MLB level (approximately 5 WAR/600), then he's a relative bargain even giving him a $60 million signing bonus.

[LDF]

Using the $7M/WAR data, he has to be an above average player - 2.5-3 WAR - to justify merely the initial cost. The problem lies in idea that, intuitively, this is actually the opposite of how free agency is supposed to work. Teams looking to win and compete will currently borrow from the future - whether it be prospects or money (and that money can be giving a guy a 5 year deal when you really only want him for the next 2-3 years, OR it can be backloading a contract so you can spend less now and then give him more money later on). The Sox got 1 year of Jeff Samardzija and 6 years of Michael Ynoa for 6 years each of Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, Rangel Ravelo, and Josh Phegley. That's definitely borrowing from the future for the right now.

 

However, in this instance, teams will be borrowing from the present to spend on the future - there is an immediate upfront cost to acquire this player, while he technically gets cheaper year after year (as opposed, at least, to the initial expenditure of ~$53.3 million ($40 million tax and $13.3 million in year one bonus paid)). Frankly, if there are teams who have money but not a very good team, those are the teams that make the most sense to splurge on a guy like Moncada. Frankly, with the Phillies payroll down, I have no idea why they aren't trying to put together a huge offer for him, because 2 years from now Ryan Howard and his atrocious contract are gone and then they have a guy in Moncada who can be a legitimately good player for them down the road.

 

If the Sox bring him in, I'm most certainly not going to be upset, and in fact, will be very excited. But from a financial aspect, if you really believe that Yoan Moncada is going to be a very good player, I don't know why you wouldn't give him a $50-60 million bonus. Assuming $40 million paid to him via MLB contracts through his first 6 seasons, here are the approximate break-evens (based on $7M/WAR):

 

$40 million - 2.9 WAR

$50 million - 3.3 WAR

$60 million - 3.8 WAR

 

The risk/reward becomes substantially lesser the more you spend, as is akin to happen when you spend more and more money, but if he is as good as Yasiel Puig at the MLB level (approximately 5 WAR/600), then he's a relative bargain even giving him a $60 million signing bonus.

 

again as in the past, a complete and comprehensive rpt.

 

i would like to add, not to this excellent rpt, but a small addition, the sox will have some movement in contracts in 2 yrs as well, so the sox need to start looking toward the future. i think that is where, adams and other pitchers, comes in, hawkins, anderson, m johnson. there is still some holes but i think some prospects may take a step up, or a excellent 1 rnd'er next yr.

 

Yoan can be added to that list, for forward. oops. i forgot, we are talking about JR here.

[southsider2k5]

I don't know if it can be diluted down to that equation so easily.

 

Moncada's contract is a definite cost especially with the upfront costs that the penalty entails. Whether the Sox have the cash flow to stomach that weighty initial cost I don't know, but I am not sure it would immediately permit them from signing Samardzija or someone of his contractual rank. Perhaps the Sox had put away some of their available payroll (2013 & 2014) aside for future seasons when the likelihood of contention was in better probability and there may be more money available than the team's usual payroll would entail. Regardless, I don't think a say, fifty-eighty million dollar expenditure on a potential daily, plus contributor would permit them from signing Samardzija.

 

Now the two years worth of IL free agents definitely prohibits the Sox from bringing in int'l talent but they have only signed four guys above the 300,000 threshold in the last two years. With Adolfo being the only significant prospect, at least by industry standards, of the four. Not to mention this process is largely a crapshoot and the White Sox brass has been candid in their views on South America and the July 2nd process. It's safe to assume the team definitely views South America as a lesser avenue for talent than most all teams. Now if the CBA were to enable the inevitable international draft for 2017, the penalty relegates back to the initial penalty (one year of no 300,000+ players) which had been largely exploited by a handful of teams and for good reason.

 

Ultimately, with the big players going all in here, it's safe to assume the Sox don't come away with Moncada. But with that being said, I don't think the team is drawing up their cost-benefit analysis in the same way you are. Their views on South America in general, the inevitable international draft and revenue growth (and in turn player salary growth) are missing variables that could ultimately alleviate the burden that you infer is currently insurmountable.

 

It isn't that simple, but realistically, the major league roster will suffer if we spend $80 million ($50 million of it in one calendar year) on the minors. Who exactly would be gone we wouldn't know right away, but with Samardjiza being our next free agent, it makes the most sense to me in terms of a likely scenario. With him about to get expensive, and be a free agent, I would put him #1 on most likely to not be affordable if the Sox got Moncada.

 

Maybe they trade Melky. Maybe they trade Robertson. Maybe they trade Alexei. Heck maybe they trade multiple players to cut salary. The one thing I would bet on is that SOMEONE goes off of the major league roster.

[LDF]

It isn't that simple, but realistically, the major league roster will suffer if we spend $80 million ($50 million of it in one calendar year) on the minors. Who exactly would be gone we wouldn't know right away, but with Samardjiza being our next free agent, it makes the most sense to me in terms of a likely scenario. With him about to get expensive, and be a free agent, I would put him #1 on most likely to not be affordable if the Sox got Moncada.

 

Maybe they trade Melky. Maybe they trade Robertson. Maybe they trade Alexei. Heck maybe they trade multiple players to cut salary. The one thing I would bet on is that SOMEONE goes off of the major league roster.

 

therein lie the problem for me. why should the sox look to cut someone b/c of salary. they will have plenty to absorb. they, the sox have yearly money coming in, more than enuf to take care of salary and still make a huge profit.

[caulfield12]

It isn't that simple, but realistically, the major league roster will suffer if we spend $80 million ($50 million of it in one calendar year) on the minors. Who exactly would be gone we wouldn't know right away, but with Samardjiza being our next free agent, it makes the most sense to me in terms of a likely scenario. With him about to get expensive, and be a free agent, I would put him #1 on most likely to not be affordable if the Sox got Moncada.

 

Maybe they trade Melky. Maybe they trade Robertson. Maybe they trade Alexei. Heck maybe they trade multiple players to cut salary. The one thing I would bet on is that SOMEONE goes off of the major league roster.

 

 

They're not going to force themselves into a move with one of those newly-acquired players. You could also add LaRoche, Samardzija and Duke, for that matter.

 

The White Sox were very fortunate to rectify the Peavy situation....to receive the return they did on a long-term contract they quickly wanted to be rid of.

 

On the other hand, they don't want to become like the Marlins and end up promising free agents a competitive future and then turning around and doing a firesale. The odds of that are very low (it would take injuries to Sale/Abreu/Quintana), but they've reached the point of becoming an attractive landing spot again, and it would suck to turn around and cede all the territory they've fought to regain the past 2 seasons of rebuilding.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Carlos Sanchez is the the biggest success they have had internationally since the Wilder scandal without going to Google.

 

There's a reason the White Sox don't delve into this process like some other teams do. The camps and individuals helping these naive teenagers are not the most ethical individuals. While Wilder reigns as the most severe case, teams are getting worked over quite frequently even if they don't go the media with it. The Sox have been burned in varying degrees and it is has changed the way they look at the market.

 

I can't seem to find Sanchez' signing bonus, but I seem to recall it was quite low, which further strengthens the case I was making.

 

the sox have the money and can afford it. everything said otherwise is bull crap. the sox haven't break even yet on the money table to be spend and money coming in, and this is not even counting the fans season tickets let alone regular ticket sales and vending.

 

I don't understand this post.

 

[Whisox05]

Jim callis breakdown of moncada vs top middle infield prospects.

http://m.mlb.com/news/2015/02/11/108942702...field-prospects

 

I remember reading somewhere that once he signs with a team he should be in the top 15 or better of all prospects.

Edited February 11, 2015 by WhiteSoxLifer

[southsider2k5]

Jim callis breakdown of mon cadaver vs top middle infield prospects.

http://m.mlb.com/news/2015/02/11/108942702...field-prospects

 

I remember reading somewhere that once he signs with a team he should be in the top 15 or better of all prospects.

 

I love auto correct

[caulfield12]

We just doomed Moncada to Hensley Bam Bam Meulens prospect status with the cadaver comp.

 

Especially if he ends up with the Yankees.

Edited February 11, 2015 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick 48m48 minutes ago

 

Cuban IF Yoan Moncada targeting Feb. 23 for decision, rep says. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12310432...rivate-workouts …

[caulfield12]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/108942702/ji...field-prospects

 

In-depth report from Jim Callis on how Moncada stacks up in tools against the Top 15 MLB infield prospects

[Kyyle23]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/108942702/ji...field-prospects

 

In-depth report from Jim Callis on how Moncada stacks up in tools against the Top 15 MLB infield prospects

 

lol, this is literally five posts up