2016 Republican Thread

[Jenksismyhero]

I don't find this offensive at all, but I do laugh at the fact that if this were two men doing the same thing to a woman reporter, we'd never hear the end of it:

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/d...e-a6849116.html

 

 

[Buehrle>Wood]

Someone is mad

 

http://m.huffpost.com/us

[RockRaines]

Trump is drunk

[StrangeSox]

42% unemployment?

[Buehrle>Wood]

42% unemployment?

Technically true. Or around there.

[RockRaines]

Technically true. Or around there.

Based on?

[Buehrle>Wood]

Based on?

Take the Labor Bureaus total number of adults in the workforce and divide it by the total number of adults in the country and you should get a number around 40%.

[caulfield12]

Only those able-bodied 18-65 actively seeking work in the past two weeks...

[caulfield12]

https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/364.html

 

Trump now is back on top again...but still barely trailing the rest of the field as an aggregate pool.

 

Rubio was at 40 pretty consistently after Iowa.

 

At any rate, we could see Trump, Cruz, Bush, Kasich or Rubio all still having viable scenarios to win.

 

Bush or Rubio almost have to finish 2nd in SC. Kasich needs a 3rd place finish or higher to be able to fund his candidacy through SC/NV and into Super Tuesday. Cruz should be on much more favorable evangelical terrain in the South but NV will be a huge challenge.

 

Christie, Fiorina and Carson are done...and Jeb should entice Christie to stay in the race to attack Rubio in the next debate so he doesn't have to do it personally.

Edited February 10, 2016 by caulfield12

[L. Ron Paultard]

Politics are boring time-waste, to be honest. As an idealist-optimist, hate having to go de-rigeur 'cynical' mode.

 

btw GOP all-against-all Civil War predates 2008. The party borderline personality disorder, if not disassociated identity, haha

 

Today performance is 3/4 of success. need certain special kind of candidate on Pres. level. need effortless liar.

 

Democrats learned it the hard way with all the well-meaning Hubert H. Humphreys, George McGoverns, Walter Mondales of the world getting steamrolled.

 

Incidentally, contrary to the popular belief, Trump's a little too *honest*, too, you can tell how much of a bloody amateur he is. No filter; no professionals keeping him in check, it's part of the appeal, but hella risky. Honesty kills. Paul Ryan was honest in 2012: Medicare, Medicaid, SS needed reforming. There is a video clip taken backstage of Paul Ryan running into Bill Clinton. The "senior statesman" Clinton appeared to be patting Ryan on the back for his honesty & bold proposals. Setting partisanship aside. Almost as if passing the baton to the next generation...

 

Uh, except for one problem: while Clinton was complimenting the younger Paul Ryan, you KNOW what Slick Willy was gleefully thinking in that moment: "Ryan, you dumb-f*ck, congratulations -- you just lost Romney the election, hahaha!"

 

Democrats eventually decided to grow up. Bill Clinton may be a textbook sociopath & a sex predator (when even freakin Christopher Hitchens can pick up the signs, it's like, whoa!), but there is no denying he's a brilliant politician/orator. Likewise, the 2008 version of Obama = rockstar. that whole "post-racial, Centrist uniter" mask? Downright inspired!

 

Even George W. Bush had to remake himself into a 'Compassionate Conservative' to even get to a point where he could steal the election from both McCain and Gore... that's what it takes to win in the big-leagues.

 

Who's the GOP chosen one? Marco Rubio? Wilts under pressure. Sounds phony even when he's telling the truth. Love-hate relationship with small Evian water-bottles. Too hawkish. Questionable personal finances. The wrong 'kind' of Hispanic.

 

Scott Walker? Rick Perry? Jeb? All out of their depth intellectually. Puts to rest the cliche of governors automatically having a built-in advantage.

 

(Yes, Reagan was a Gov., but at the time California by itself was something like the 5th largest, dynamic GDP in the world. Plus dealing with Hollywood international glamour, various major aerospace testing grounds & naval bases; partaking in massive Cold War era nuke drills? In a sense it's as if Reagan already had quasi Presidential experience even b4 taking office. Either way, he acted the part, literally.)

 

It goes beyond individual candidates, tho. To my young generation, what's the ethos? What's the choice?

 

-New Democrats: "free sh*t & lots of sex, yay!"

-Repubs: "eat your vegetables & get off my lawn. Ba-ba-ba-Barbara Ann!!!" (ok, 'bomb Iran')

 

Now which one do you think the Millenials will instinctively/subconsciously gravitate to, huh? lmao! Personal responsibility, hard-work, sacrifice, patience blablabla - no thanks!........ weed, video games and/or sosh-media, riding the Chad-C*ck-Carousel, selfies, safe-spaces ------> now that's living ("Tinnnderrrr!")

 

#digress

 

.

 

Caulfield, forget the flawed early polling: Bernie Sanders will get crushed by Donnie Honeybadger's throbbing mixed-metaphor in November. Even demographics won't help. Just as, say, that weird little cult-leader Ron Paul would have been eaten alive in the 2012 General Election (even by someone like Jim Webb or Martin O'Malley.)

 

 

 

----

 

Mail-bride status: 'ambilagus'

-Turn-ons: shiny things, Krokodil

-Turn-offs: ugly people; judgmental looks; Americans beer-belly; Cialis.

 

----

 

.

 

 

 

 

K mini Update:

 

uh-oh, did Marco-pants choke yet again? Presidential pressure is nothing to trifle with; even grizzled old operators like Rick Perry, John Edwards, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney and Jeb melt like wax under unforgiving spotlight. Hey Mr. Rubio, turns out there is more to being 'an Obama' than rehearsing a focus-grouped line and flashing that X-Men: Apocalypse robot's giant mouth smile, huh?

 

Hate to break it to all the silly hipsters & political junkies, but Trump is just getting warmed up; learning hard lessons on the fly (what with skeletal staff and a campaign budget of, like, tree-fiddy in totes, haha.)

 

Denying the inevitable will only hurt more. Get ready for 'Morning in America 2: Electric Dildoloo' ("that s***ty little actor who's gonna get us into a nuclear war with Russia".... VERSUS "that Apprentice billionaire with a bad toupee who's gonna deport grandma" )

 

From the FSA (Free Sh*t Army)...... to Sheldon Adelson, Koch Bros...... from old-fart Chi-Coms in Beijing.... to the Mexican gov and Latin American drug cartels... from the Twelver Mullahs in Teheran... to Megyn Kelly's quivering "whatever" -- all alternating between the state of denial & simmering hysteria. 'Honey Badger's spectre seems to terrify them so. hilar

 

Polls right now don't even reflect the full extent of reality yet. As the bandwagon momentum builds going forward, quite a few surprising groups & demographics, incl. 'Reagan Dems', union rank and file, will come out of the closet 4 Trump. Then as one last desperate move, TPTB will get some Atlantic City waitress or 2 to claim that Donald grabbed her ass the wrong way 20 years ago, or that he screams out "Heil mein Fuhrer!" at the point of climax, or some sh*t like that. aka the manufactured scandal to prove how anti-Woman Trump is, and also to "balance" out the Bill Clinton sexual predator factor....

 

And it won't work: because after 4 decades in the media spotlight, by now everyone knows that Donald smashed so much prime celebrity p*ssy in his heyday, it'll only enhance his Alpha-cool appeal (also not unlike a certain former President or two

 

Bernie Sanders? The Clinton Foundation is furiously wiring $$$ to the South Carolina black churches' preachers' Cayman Islands accounts, as we speak. Won't help much since, you know, that whole monstrously damaging e-mails thingie that will only get worse.

 

(Not to mention Hillary's rather glaring lack of any semblance of a hint of an iota of a smidgen of discernible human appeal, integrity or a positive accomplishment of any sort. It's so bad that even the perennially fawning MSM couldn't put enough lipstick on that walking Rodham horror-show. Mercy!)

 

 

.

[StrangeSox]

Take the Labor Bureaus total number of adults in the workforce and divide it by the total number of adults in the country and you should get a number around 40%.

That's not how unemployment works though. That's labor force participation.

[RockRaines]

That's not how unemployment works though. That's labor force participation.

Right that's part of what I don't get. My father is retired and is in that group, I wouldn't consider him unemployed.

[cabiness42]

Right that's part of what I don't get. My father is retired and is in that group, I wouldn't consider him unemployed.

 

I can shed a bit of light on the unemployement numbers, since it's my job.

 

Someone who is retired, UNLESS they also claim to be looking for work, is considered to be not part of the labor force. Same would apply to students also unless they are looking for work.

 

To be counted as unemployed, you have to have been actively looking for work within the past four weeks.

[Buehrle>Wood]

That's not how unemployment works though. That's labor force participation.

I know I didn't say it was a good metric. But it is technically unemployment too.

[caulfield12]

K mini Update:

 

uh-oh, did Marco-pants choke yet again? Presidential pressure is nothing to trifle with; even grizzled old operators like Rick Perry, John Edwards, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney and Jeb melt like wax under unforgiving spotlight. Hey Mr. Rubio, turns out there is more to being 'an Obama' than rehearsing a focus-grouped line and flashing that X-Men: Apocalypse robot's giant mouth smile, huh?

 

Hate to break it to all the silly hipsters & political junkies, but Trump is just getting warmed up; learning hard lessons on the fly (what with skeletal staff and a campaign budget of, like, tree-fiddy in totes, haha.)

 

Denying the inevitable will only hurt more. Get ready for 'Morning in America 2: Electric Dildoloo' ("that s***ty little actor who's gonna get us into a nuclear war with Russia".... VERSUS "that Apprentice billionaire with a bad toupee who's gonna deport grandma" )

 

From the FSA (Free Sh*t Army)...... to Sheldon Adelson, Koch Bros...... from old-fart Chi-Coms in Beijing.... to the Mexican gov and Latin American drug cartels... from the Twelver Mullahs in Teheran... to Megyn Kelly's quivering "whatever" -- all alternating between the state of denial & simmering hysteria. 'Honey Badger's spectre seems to terrify them so. hilar

 

Polls right now don't even reflect the full extent of reality yet. As the bandwagon momentum builds going forward, quite a few surprising groups & demographics, incl. 'Reagan Dems', union rank and file, will come out of the closet 4 Trump. Then as one last desperate move, TPTB will get some Atlantic City waitress or 2 to claim that Donald grabbed her ass the wrong way 20 years ago, or that he screams out "Heil mein Fuhrer!" at the point of climax, or some sh*t like that. aka the manufactured scandal to prove how anti-Woman Trump is, and also to "balance" out the Bill Clinton sexual predator factor....

 

And it won't work: because after 4 decades in the media spotlight, by now everyone knows that Donald smashed so much prime celebrity p*ssy in his heyday, it'll only enhance his Alpha-cool appeal (also not unlike a certain former President or two

 

Bernie Sanders? The Clinton Foundation is furiously wiring $$$ to the South Carolina black churches' preachers' Cayman Islands accounts, as we speak. Won't help much since, you know, that whole monstrously damaging e-mails thingie that will only get worse.

 

(Not to mention Hillary's rather glaring lack of any semblance of a hint of an iota of a smidgen of discernible human appeal, integrity or a positive accomplishment of any sort. It's so bad that even the perennially fawning MSM couldn't put enough lipstick on that walking Rodham horror-show. Mercy!)

 

If Trump wins both South Carolina and Nevada, it's clear sailing through Super Tuesday and retail politics/ground game gets tossed aside for money/ads/organization (goodbye Kasich) in March and Trump excels there.

 

The GOP should have had sime Western states earlier in the cycle. By that time, it could be too late to trip him up.

 

If Bloomberg runs, he can actual ensure a Trump presidency. Hillary has to win in Nevada on the 20th or the Dems will be in full panic mode and reaching out to Warren and Biden.

 

.

 

[caulfield12]

K mini Update:

 

uh-oh, did Marco-pants choke yet again? Presidential pressure is nothing to trifle with; even grizzled old operators like Rick Perry, John Edwards, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney and Jeb melt like wax under unforgiving spotlight. Hey Mr. Rubio, turns out there is more to being 'an Obama' than rehearsing a focus-grouped line and flashing that X-Men: Apocalypse robot's giant mouth smile, huh?

 

Hate to break it to all the silly hipsters & political junkies, but Trump is just getting warmed up; learning hard lessons on the fly (what with skeletal staff and a campaign budget of, like, tree-fiddy in totes, haha.)

 

Denying the inevitable will only hurt more. Get ready for 'Morning in America 2: Electric Dildoloo' ("that s***ty little actor who's gonna get us into a nuclear war with Russia".... VERSUS "that Apprentice billionaire with a bad toupee who's gonna deport grandma" )

 

From the FSA (Free Sh*t Army)...... to Sheldon Adelson, Koch Bros...... from old-fart Chi-Coms in Beijing.... to the Mexican gov and Latin American drug cartels... from the Twelver Mullahs in Teheran... to Megyn Kelly's quivering "whatever" -- all alternating between the state of denial & simmering hysteria. 'Honey Badger's spectre seems to terrify them so. hilar

 

Polls right now don't even reflect the full extent of reality yet. As the bandwagon momentum builds going forward, quite a few surprising groups & demographics, incl. 'Reagan Dems', union rank and file, will come out of the closet 4 Trump. Then as one last desperate move, TPTB will get some Atlantic City waitress or 2 to claim that Donald grabbed her ass the wrong way 20 years ago, or that he screams out "Heil mein Fuhrer!" at the point of climax, or some sh*t like that. aka the manufactured scandal to prove how anti-Woman Trump is, and also to "balance" out the Bill Clinton sexual predator factor....

 

And it won't work: because after 4 decades in the media spotlight, by now everyone knows that Donald smashed so much prime celebrity p*ssy in his heyday, it'll only enhance his Alpha-cool appeal (also not unlike a certain former President or two

 

Bernie Sanders? The Clinton Foundation is furiously wiring $$$ to the South Carolina black churches' preachers' Cayman Islands accounts, as we speak. Won't help much since, you know, that whole monstrously damaging e-mails thingie that will only get worse.

 

(Not to mention Hillary's rather glaring lack of any semblance of a hint of an iota of a smidgen of discernible human appeal, integrity or a positive accomplishment of any sort. It's so bad that even the perennially fawning MSM couldn't put enough lipstick on that walking Rodham horror-show. Mercy!)

 

 

If Trump wins both South Carolina and Nevada, it's clear sailing through Super Tuesday and retail politics/ground game gets tossed aside for money/ads/organization (goodbye Kasich) in March and Trump excels there.

 

The GOP should have had sime Western states earlier in the cycle. By that time, it could be too late to trip him up.

 

If Bloomberg runs, he can actual ensure a Trump presidency. Hillary has to win in Nevada on the 20th or the Dems will be in full panic mode and reaching out to Warren and Biden.

 

 

[cabiness42]

Christie needs to decide whether he likes Kasich or Bush better, drop out right now, and throw all of his weight behind one of the two.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Christie needs to decide whether he likes Kasich or Bush better, drop out right now, and throw all of his weight behind one of the two.

Kasich does a better Bush than Jeb Bush. That said I think Christie supporters flock to Trump

 

[RockRaines]

I know I didn't say it was a good metric. But it is technically unemployment too.

 

DEFINITION of 'Unemployment'

Unemployment occurs when a person who is actively searching for employment is unable to find work.

 

Eh not really. If you arent looking for a job you cannot be part of that statistic.

[Buehrle>Wood]

And you find definitions that say it's simply not being employed too. As I said it's not a good stat to use but technically not false either.

[StrangeSox]

Labor force participation and the various unemployment stats (U-3 is the one typically reported) compiled by the BLS all have their uses, but hacks love to conflate them when convenient.

[LittleHurt05]

Labor force participation and the various unemployment stats (U-3 is the one typically reported) compiled by the BLS all have their uses, but hacks love to conflate them when convenient.

 

That's true for every statistic ever.

[NorthSideSox72]

One of the key things about Trump that people need to keep in mind, and that add to the reasons why he won't win the nomination, is that no one is going to "flock" to him as people drop out. When polls ask who people absolutely would not back, Trump's numbers are ridiculously high among those not currently supporting him. His ability to grow his base is almost non-existent.

 

I mean, look at New Hampshire as a data point. Trump's support there was in the low to mid-30's in polls back in December, before Iowa and when there were like 15 candidates. Post-Iowa, and with a bunch of candidates dropping out, he ends up with... low to mid-30's. Meanwhile in that same period, looking at the remaining other candidates in that period, Rubio stayed about the same despite having a terrible debate performance, Cruz went up a little from high single digits to low double digits, Kasich went from high single digits to mid-teens, Bush went from high single digits to 11%, and Christie actually went down (not sure what happened there). This despite NH being predominantly white, lower income and lower education which should be Trump's wheelhouse.

 

Here are some recent polls that indicate the much higher numbers for "I'd never" on Trump than anyone else. Like, many times over, and the numbers are trending up.

 

No one is flocking to Trump. He's alive exactly because there are so many other candidates. As that changes, so will his fortunes.

 

[southsider2k5]

Labor force participation and the various unemployment stats (U-3 is the one typically reported) compiled by the BLS all have their uses, but hacks love to conflate them when convenient.

 

Realistically U6 is the most true read of unemployment in this country. Even I wouldn't go past that number.

[southsider2k5]

One of the key things about Trump that people need to keep in mind, and that add to the reasons why he won't win the nomination, is that no one is going to "flock" to him as people drop out. When polls ask who people absolutely would not back, Trump's numbers are ridiculously high among those not currently supporting him. His ability to grow his base is almost non-existent.

 

I mean, look at New Hampshire as a data point. Trump's support there was in the low to mid-30's in polls back in December, before Iowa and when there were like 15 candidates. Post-Iowa, and with a bunch of candidates dropping out, he ends up with... low to mid-30's. Meanwhile in that same period, looking at the remaining other candidates in that period, Rubio stayed about the same despite having a terrible debate performance, Cruz went up a little from high single digits to low double digits, Kasich went from high single digits to mid-teens, Bush went from high single digits to 11%, and Christie actually went down (not sure what happened there). This despite NH being predominantly white, lower income and lower education which should be Trump's wheelhouse.

 

Here are some recent polls that indicate the much higher numbers for "I'd never" on Trump than anyone else. Like, many times over, and the numbers are trending up.

 

No one is flocking to Trump. He's alive exactly because there are so many other candidates. As that changes, so will his fortunes.

 

Totally agree. It is why the R field needs to narrow to one other candidate ASAP. The longer the losing candidates hold on to false hope, the more delegates that could go to Trump later.