the assets are the opportunity cost. You're spending money and a roster spot and basically giving up on what could be an asset in the future -- Avi -- and for what? You're giving up flexibility that could be used on a much better upgrade later on. You guys that are pining for Jackson -- have you watched him play since he left Detroit? He's on the wrong side of 30 and put up a whopping 1.7 bWAR last year. Steamer projects him for 1.1 fWAR.

 

He's no great shakes and you're asking him to play RF mostly, where he's played a total of 22 games in his career.

 

The upgrade to go get is Fowler. That is a clear upgrade. Jackson is not worth the opportunity cost.

Jackson put up a 2.3 fWAR last year, while Avi put up a -1.1. That's a 3.4 fWAR differential, which is beyond substantial. I also think the Safeco is a plus, as plenty of guys have turned around after leaving Seattle. As for Jackson's role on the team, he'd be our CF with Eaton moving to RF. That's a significantly better defensive alignment than Cabrera-Eaton-Garcia.

 

And I get you're an Avi fanboy, but there is nothing to suggest Avi will get materially better at this point in time. 1,100 career PA's and he's been worth a combined -1.9 fWAR, with no signs of improvement. We're talking about a a guy who is a horrific defender & poor base runner that also has no plate discipline. The odds of him ever hitting enough to account for his other shortcomings is incredibly small. You certaintly don't risk a legit shot at a division title over it. And I'm not even advocating dumping Avi, I'd like to see him as LaRoche's platoon partner and overall insurance policy at DH & LF.

Jackson put up a 2.3 fWAR last year, while Avi put up a -1.1. That's a 3.4 fWAR differential, which is beyond substantial. I also think the Safeco is a plus, as plenty of guys have turned around after leaving Seattle. As for Jackson's role on the team, he'd be our CF with Eaton moving to RF. That's a significantly better defensive alignment than Cabrera-Eaton-Garcia.

 

And I get you're an Avi fanboy, but there is nothing to suggest Avi will get materially better at this point in time. 1,100 career PA's and he's been worth a combined -1.9 fWAR, with no signs of improvement. We're talking about a a guy who is a horrific defender & poor base runner that also has no plate discipline. The odds of him ever hitting enough to account for his other shortcomings is incredibly small. You certaintly don't risk a legit shot at a division title over it. And I'm not even advocating dumping Avi, I'd like to see him as LaRoche's platoon partner and overall insurance policy at DH & LF.

 

So much awesomeness in this post. Shocking to think Ventura and possibly Hahn will let their job fall on the shoulders of Avi and LaRoche.

Edited February 18, 201610 yr by fathom

So much awesomeness in this post. Shocking to think Ventura and possibly Hahn will let their job fall on the shoulders of Avi and LaRoche.

Honestly, that's the only reason I'm confident that Hahn will still add another OF. How many GMs that are serious about competing would actually enter the season with both Avi & LaRoche in their lineup with basically no competition? I know I wouldn't risk my job on that scenario and it seems like the majority of SoxTalk agrees. Hahn simply can't be that stupid.

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 28s28 seconds ago

Sources: The expectation of O's is that they will finish deals with both Gallardo and Fowler; Fowler expected to be BAL's right fielder.

Yeah Garcia! Let's see those dropped balls in RF again this year.

Oh my God. Are you kidding me?!

the assets are the opportunity cost. You're spending money and a roster spot and basically giving up on what could be an asset in the future -- Avi -- and for what? You're giving up flexibility that could be used on a much better upgrade later on. You guys that are pining for Jackson -- have you watched him play since he left Detroit? He's on the wrong side of 30 and put up a whopping 1.7 bWAR last year. Steamer projects him for 1.1 fWAR.

 

He's no great shakes and you're asking him to play RF mostly, where he's played a total of 22 games in his career.

 

The upgrade to go get is Fowler. That is a clear upgrade. Jackson is not worth the opportunity cost.

Uh, Jackson just turned 29 on February 1st. Have you seen Avi's approach at the plate or seen him lumberjacking around RF? Neither are pretty sights to see. Despite Jackson's numbers, they are still improvements over Avi.

 

Fowler's defense is nothing to write home about and neither was his BA against RHP last year. You say Avi is a future asset and the Sox should not sign Jackson but then you say the Sox should sign Fowler. What happens to Avi if the Sox sign Fowler? The same thing as if the Sox had signed Jackson.

 

Look, neither one of those broads are swell lookers but both Jackson and Fowler are upgrades over Avi, which is the point.

Sources: The talks between the Orioles and Dexter Fowler are about a deal in the range of $12m-$13 million annually, for 2 or 3 years.

 

Per Buster.

 

 

 

Again, if Fowler signs for 2/25, the Sox front office deserves EVERYTHING they get.

I'm ok if they can get Jackson for a song, but passing on Fowler at that price to go with Avi would be an epic fail.

Jackson put up a 2.3 fWAR last year, while Avi put up a -1.1. That's a 3.4 fWAR differential, which is beyond substantial. I also think the Safeco is a plus, as plenty of guys have turned around after leaving Seattle. As for Jackson's role on the team, he'd be our CF with Eaton moving to RF. That's a significantly better defensive alignment than Cabrera-Eaton-Garcia.

 

And I get you're an Avi fanboy, but there is nothing to suggest Avi will get materially better at this point in time. 1,100 career PA's and he's been worth a combined -1.9 fWAR, with no signs of improvement. We're talking about a a guy who is a horrific defender & poor base runner that also has no plate discipline. The odds of him ever hitting enough to account for his other shortcomings is incredibly small. You certaintly don't risk a legit shot at a division title over it. And I'm not even advocating dumping Avi, I'd like to see him as LaRoche's platoon partner and overall insurance policy at DH & LF.

Nicely done!

Honestly, that's the only reason I'm confident that Hahn will still add another OF. How many GMs that are serious about competing would actually enter the season with both Avi & LaRoche in their lineup with basically no competition? I know I wouldn't risk my job on that scenario and it seems like the majority of SoxTalk agrees. Hahn simply can't be that stupid.

 

You would really think so, but we are less than 48 hrs away from pitchers and catchers reporting and we haven't even heard a whisper. If they go into this season with those guys starting at their respective positions, they're digging their own grave. We know there's no accountability under Jerry's watch though, so why do anything?

Honest question, but what can Jackson realistically expect if Fowler ends up with a 2/$25M deal?

 

I'm thinking something like 2/$16M, which would be a pretty solid price IMO.

I'm ok if they can get Jackson for a song, but passing on Fowler at that price to go with Avi would be an epic fail.

 

There's been absolutely nothing linking the Sox to Fowler for a few weeks. This news isn't surprising. If they go into the season with this roster and fail again, Hahn better be held accountable.

Honest question, but what can Jackson realistically expect if Fowler ends up with a 2/$25M deal?

 

I'm thinking something like 2/$16M, which would be a pretty solid price IMO.

 

 

I'm sure Dick Allen will mention it but his agent is Boras....I dont think he cares.

You would really think so, but we are less than 48 hrs away from pitchers and catchers reporting and we haven't even heard a whisper. If they go into this season with those guys starting at their respective positions, they're digging their own grave. We know there's no accountability under Jerry's watch though, so why do anything?

 

Also, for those getting their hopes up about a Spring Training trade, there was only one of significance last year during ST and that was the day before opening day (Kimbrel).

So much awesomeness in this post. Shocking to think Ventura and possibly Hahn will let their job fall on the shoulders of Avi and LaRoche.

 

If you think the delta between Avi and Jackson in 2016 will be 3.7 WAR you're off your rocker.

 

Austin Jackson is not putting this team over the top. There's a reason nobody has bothered signing him. I mis read his age earlier he's "only" 29 instead of 30 and you're going to be asking him to play a new position, RF -- FWIW he has a negative fWAR in RF in an ultra small sample size.

 

Avi sucks but just like Viciedo the scenario is such that you pretty much have to give him another 300 or so PA to figure out if you can safely cut bait. A torn labrum is no joke and an obvious reason why he was unable to consistently generate bat speed or play any sort of defense last year. I'm not expecting him to turn into a 4 WAR player but would anyone be shocked if both him and Jackson finished around 1 fWAR this season?

 

It really surprises me how many folks think the Austin Jackson is some surefire upgrade. I just don't think you've looked at his stats or watched him play since he left Detroit. He's clearly a player in decline that relies on his athletic ability (which is leaving him) for most of his value.

 

FFS he had a .311 OBP and struck out 22% of the time last year -- and this was a bounceback for him!

 

Jackson is a better player than Avi, nobody is going to dispute that. But there's more to it than just that.

Yes, I would be shocked if Avi puts up a 1 WAR. He sucks in all three aspects, and would need incredible improvements in order to get into the positive range all around. It's just insane to go into a season with 3 guys who are very risky starters (Avi, Saladino and LaRoche) and not have a competent replacement in place for any of them.

Edited February 18, 201610 yr by fathom

I'm sure Dick Allen will mention it but his agent is Boras....I dont think he cares.

But there simply isn't much of a market for Jackson. No one is going to give into Boras' outrageous demands as we literally enter spring training. Boras is obviously the best at what he does, but even he can't perform a miracle with Jackson this late in the game.

His defense just sucks too much. It would negate anything he is doing well offensively. Basically Prince Fielder syndrome.

Once again, the Sox dropped the ball here. Why wasn't this do-able for them?

Honest question, but what can Jackson realistically expect if Fowler ends up with a 2/$25M deal?

 

I'm thinking something like 2/$16M, which would be a pretty solid price IMO.

 

Yes, just give Jackson a 2 year deal. Chasing these stupid incremental upgrades is exactly how they got stuck with La Roche. Let's do it all over!

 

Nobody else looks at his medicals, his stats, and will give him anything but the Sox are only Austin Jackson away from REALLY pumping up the fan base.

 

I understand the losing has beat you guys down but the Sox have only 25 roster spots and they only have so much money. This isn't a team that does well chasing incremental FA upgrades.

I don't know why anyone is surprised at this. Span got 3/31, and it can be argued he is a better player than Fowler. A bunch of us were saying 3/30 for Fowler, which seems about right. And we are less than a week away from ST.

 

It is 100% not a contract that will screw up any future plans, or prevent you from making additional moves if needed(Like a Danks contract did).

 

I just don't get it.

 

You know I keep saying they're out of money. It's either that or there's a specific trade target they're going after.

His defense just sucks too much. It would negate anything he is doing well offensively. Basically Prince Fielder syndrome.

 

Fowler's only fit on this team was ability to get on base. The defense, being average against RHP and comp pick always made him a bad fit, in my opinion.

Fowler's only fit on this team was ability to get on base. The defense, being average against RHP and comp pick always made him a bad fit, in my opinion.

 

His offense would have been nice. Garcia is just so absolutely awful specifically on defense that he would need to be spectacular on offense to negate the lost runs he would give up.

If you think the delta between Avi and Jackson in 2016 will be 3.7 WAR you're off your rocker.

 

Austin Jackson is not putting this team over the top. There's a reason nobody has bothered signing him. I mis read his age earlier he's "only" 29 instead of 30 and you're going to be asking him to play a new position, RF -- FWIW he has a negative fWAR in RF in an ultra small sample size.

 

Avi sucks but just like Viciedo the scenario is such that you pretty much have to give him another 300 or so PA to figure out if you can safely cut bait. A torn labrum is no joke and an obvious reason why he was unable to consistently generate bat speed or play any sort of defense last year. I'm not expecting him to turn into a 4 WAR player but would anyone be shocked if both him and Jackson finished around 1 fWAR this season?

 

It really surprises me how many folks think the Austin Jackson is some surefire upgrade. I just don't think you've looked at his stats or watched him play since he left Detroit. He's clearly a player in decline that relies on his athletic ability (which is leaving him) for most of his value.

 

FFS he had a .311 OBP and struck out 22% of the time last year -- and this was a bounceback for him!

 

Jackson is a better player than Avi, nobody is going to dispute that. But there's more to it than just that.

In Jackson's six seasons, he's only put up an fWAR below 2.3 once. In three partial/full seasons, Avi has never put up an fWAR above 0. No matter how you slice this, Jackson is incredibly likely to be an upgrade over Avi and very likely a two win one. In a division that's right there for the taking, you take the higher floor than the very remote chance of upside.

Edited February 18, 201610 yr by Chicago White Sox

Fowler's only fit on this team was ability to get on base. The defense, being average against RHP and comp pick always made him a bad fit, in my opinion.

 

Fowler was an upgrade in every way over Avi outside of power. Much more than his ability to get on base.