wrathofhahn

Scott Brosius

It isn't descriptive the reason for that is quite simple when you leave the realm of what happened to what should have happened you move from reflective to predictive. And like I said I still don't understand how fangraphs justifies treating pitchers one way and hitters another. Is BABIP for hitter not dependent on luck as well. If a pitcher throws a pitch it gets put in play for a hit but his defense isn't good so it gets taken away why does the hitter get to keep that same hit? I've always had this problem with WAR. I think FIP exists on it's own as does xFIP. There are already stats out there to determine how much luck influenced the pitchers performance but at the end of the day WAR is supposed to measure a players contribution to a club it shouldn't matter how that happened whether it partially attributed to luck, ballpark, or defense. As soon as you start introducing imaginary numbers based on what you think should have happened it stops becoming useful stat in measuring how much specific worth the player had to a club that season.

The biggest problem I have with WAR is how it's used. Particularly fangraphs war which uses predictive modeling rather then being reflective of what actually happened. For example example Brandon Morrow he regularly put up seasons of mid 4 era but because his FIP was in the mid 3's his WAR was 3+. That may be predictive but when a fan says Morrow was worth more to the Jays then Vogelsong in 2011 they are wrong. Outcomes matter. I've always found it strange that fangraphs WAR focuses on the peripheral of pitchers but for hitters they ignore BABIP and other factors like defense.

Well he's in a mini funk right now so yes when you project out the difference it's not so hot but he has a career wRC+ of 137. Or about +30 runs above average. It's also important to note wRC+ is not position specific so while the Astros are getting league average production they are doing so at 1B.

No that is not what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is that contending teams have specific needs as they for the most part already have good clubs. Sure the old axiom of you can never have enough pitching applies but when you look at position players if you have Stanton. Judge. You aren't looking for a corner OF. If you have Arenado at 3B you aren't looking for a 3B. If you have Sanchez catching you aren't looking for a catcher. This isn't really news is it? Last year almost all the contenders had slugging 1B who were raking. Hell the astros were one of those teams. That is a big reason why JDM market was garbage. I really hate having to prove this point time and time again but go through the list of what teams are getting out of 1B/DH. Rockies are getting 54 wRC+ out of their 1B. Yankees 81. Astros are getting 100. Mariners 92. Twins 89 out of their DH.

Demand and supply. Teams at the deadline will have a very specific set of needs that they will want to addressed. Earlier I went through all the contending teams and found 8 of them that could use an upgrade at 1B a bunch of the guys who hit well last year fell down to earth. I don't think we'll really have a problem with getting good value for Abreu but we'll have to see what teams offer

The trade deadline isn't about WAR it's about filling needs and replacing non productive players with productive ones. If a bunch of teams need to replace their 1B and feel Abreu is the answer to fixing that then it won't matter what his WAR is or how much JDM went for. Conversely if you have a player who has a high WAR but where is isn't a market for his services among contenders it doesn't matter what previous players went for or his WAR the return will be limited.

There is a better then decent chance he's nontendered after this season already making 6+. There was a rumor earlier before the season but JBJ is worthless right now.

My preference is for prototypical size/skill guys for positions if they are being drafted 4th overall or a headliner in a trade. I don't mind taking a chance if they are the 2nd/3rd guy in a deal or drafted later. In Madrigal case we were drafting 4th there I don't want a grinder, scrappy hitter, leadoff guy. I'm expecting a superstar. I don't think he'll ever hit for enough power to get there. We'll see I guess.

Preach burner Hahn

He's a midget who throws with a ton of effort. Of all the guys to target he's not the guy.

I think Whitley is the guy to target. They have some lower guys that are interesting as well. Novis and Solis come to mind. He projects as a 1B/DH at the next level. Those guys don't really have a ton of value in trades regardless of where they rank prospect wise.

I think they've been hoping he regained his stuff which declined slightly and is part of the reason the Nationals moved him. But besides this there was always going to be busts in this rebuild. It's part of the reason why do we have too much pitching is sort of laughable. Young guys get TJ. They bust. About the only position I feel good about in the minors is the OF. We'd have to have a whole host of guys bust to not get three guys from that group.

Wow this thread is wrong on so many levels. We have some good prospects but you have to assume more then half flame out.

Best hope I have for him at this point is he become a reliever and finds some of his missing velocity as failed starters sometimes do. No idea what we are doing continuing to send him out there with mediocre stuff and being unable to locate his pitches.

I'm in favor of taking calculated risks just not badly calculated risks.

We'd be crazy to offer him an extension without seeing how his shoulder holds up first. So glad some of you guys aren't gm

We need to be trading for pitching prospects 1-2 years a way. Right now we have two big holes starters and middle infielders. We sort of got better in that with Madrigal. As far Harper and Machado goes we should have zero interest. This team isn't ready. We can't start the clock without knowing what we have from an internal standpoint. This rebuild could take 3 years, 4 years, even 5 years. Astros took 4 I believe the Cubs took three. We are in year two. You sign Machado you are essentially wasting what 60 million (two years) if you are assuming the contention is 2020. I honestly don't get the obsession for the two players look at the Orioles they are terrible with him. He's not going to single handily lift us to the playoffs. We don't have a starting rotation. We don't have an outfield. We probably won't have a bullpen after this deadline. Signing Machado or Harper is stupid sauce.

Yeah unless the Yankees desperate for rotation help make an offer you can't refuse I think you have to retain him and hope he regains his value. Something along the lines of Justus Shieffield, Albert Abreu, Luis Medina, Dermis Garcia.

We have some options to move. Abreu Nate Jones James Shields Luis Avilian Joakim Soria Xavier Cedeno Bruce Rodon We also have some longterm guys who could be moved. Yolmer Sanchez Jace Fry Hector Santiago So who stays and who goes. I think with the sending down of Bummer Hahn has sort of tipped his hand he is trying to be as active as possible and he loaded up on mediocre lefties which always have trade value. Personally I expect our relievers to be decimated. Avilian likely goes. Soria. Jones. Cedeno. I also expect Abreu to be shopped hard. Santiago is another guy they are trying to create value from and moving to the bullpen also a lefty. Shield stays. Fry stays. Sanchez may stay but longterm he's more of a 2B but looking at the teams don't see much demand. Rodon is sort of interesting he's been dominant much more so then his ERA indicates. If he gets a good package back despite this he's probably gone but I don't really see that happening but who knows the Cubs made that Q trade despite traditional metrics. Maybe there is a GM out there willing to pay full price. Rodon has a 1.89 FIP and a 3.07 xFIP. Still got the gas.

Why? I'd consider internal options or the waiver wire before shields. Shields is a shitty 5th starter. His xFIP is 5.11. If you have a real bad 5th starter you are looking for a significant upgrade not Shields.

Honestly I'd rather keep him and have him eat innings then get some organization 30th ranked prospect and pretend it's something.

It doesn't matter you can have a debate about positions being undervalued and being worth more at the deadline like for example Abreu based on supply and demand but even if there isn't anyone available Shields isn't worth much because he isn't any good. If you need SP after trading for Shields you still need SP. He's just a body and everyone knows it

Rafael Belliard 5'6 160 pounds. Someone actually hunted up the footage of all his homeruns he hit in his 17 year career and put it on youtube. Interesting watch if you can set aside the time.

Lefty with good stuff (they moved him to the pen). Shields is a RHP who barely breaks 90 on his fastball anymore.