wrathofhahn

The current Abreu noone has a need for.

I could see Carlos Rodon being moved. Yankees and a bunch of teams are desperate for pitching they will be more apt to give up top prospects for guys with control. Abreu value has cratered. Maybe some team has interest I dunno but with the way he's been hitting honestly the awkward question is what to do with him next season. I think with sort of some of our top guys taking a step back we should probably look to go as deep as we can as far as trading talent. That means moving Sanchez as well assuming we get a good offer.

That is simply not the case and it goes far beyond stripping out defense. It also accounts for strand rates HR/FB. A whole host of other things. And when you say stripping out defense what you really mean normalizing their stats with imaginary numbers based on league average defense. The problem with that is WAR is supposed to measure the worth of the player to the club. It actually does a really poor job of what it actually was designed to do and I've seen numerous studies proving this most them compare the teams collective WAR with the teams actual wins and there is a wide spread in how accurate it is. It does a good job of measuring the worth of a player as a quick comparison metric leaguewide which is maybe what it has turned into.

He's hitting like a guy who wants to stay. Can we trade him and even get someone decent at this point? How far has his value fallen

I meant they were annoyingly overrated by other whitesox fans. Joe Crede had a 93+ OPS which means despite your proclamations otherwise he was was worse then league average hitter while he was here. His defense made him starting quality 3B but he never warranted the attention he received. Podsednik was even worse. He was a below average hitter infact he never had a wRC+ above 100 with the sox and because he took terrible routes despite his speed his defense was suspect. As someone who was advanced guy at the time those players annoyed me most because it was always look at his steals or look at his defense ignoring the complete picture.

Guy on the whitesox? Probably Joe Crede. He was basically a replaceable starter for most of his career. Other guy Scott Podsednik

David Eckstein

Scott Brosius

It isn't descriptive the reason for that is quite simple when you leave the realm of what happened to what should have happened you move from reflective to predictive. And like I said I still don't understand how fangraphs justifies treating pitchers one way and hitters another. Is BABIP for hitter not dependent on luck as well. If a pitcher throws a pitch it gets put in play for a hit but his defense isn't good so it gets taken away why does the hitter get to keep that same hit? I've always had this problem with WAR. I think FIP exists on it's own as does xFIP. There are already stats out there to determine how much luck influenced the pitchers performance but at the end of the day WAR is supposed to measure a players contribution to a club it shouldn't matter how that happened whether it partially attributed to luck, ballpark, or defense. As soon as you start introducing imaginary numbers based on what you think should have happened it stops becoming useful stat in measuring how much specific worth the player had to a club that season.

The biggest problem I have with WAR is how it's used. Particularly fangraphs war which uses predictive modeling rather then being reflective of what actually happened. For example example Brandon Morrow he regularly put up seasons of mid 4 era but because his FIP was in the mid 3's his WAR was 3+. That may be predictive but when a fan says Morrow was worth more to the Jays then Vogelsong in 2011 they are wrong. Outcomes matter. I've always found it strange that fangraphs WAR focuses on the peripheral of pitchers but for hitters they ignore BABIP and other factors like defense.

Well he's in a mini funk right now so yes when you project out the difference it's not so hot but he has a career wRC+ of 137. Or about +30 runs above average. It's also important to note wRC+ is not position specific so while the Astros are getting league average production they are doing so at 1B.

No that is not what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is that contending teams have specific needs as they for the most part already have good clubs. Sure the old axiom of you can never have enough pitching applies but when you look at position players if you have Stanton. Judge. You aren't looking for a corner OF. If you have Arenado at 3B you aren't looking for a 3B. If you have Sanchez catching you aren't looking for a catcher. This isn't really news is it? Last year almost all the contenders had slugging 1B who were raking. Hell the astros were one of those teams. That is a big reason why JDM market was garbage. I really hate having to prove this point time and time again but go through the list of what teams are getting out of 1B/DH. Rockies are getting 54 wRC+ out of their 1B. Yankees 81. Astros are getting 100. Mariners 92. Twins 89 out of their DH.

Demand and supply. Teams at the deadline will have a very specific set of needs that they will want to addressed. Earlier I went through all the contending teams and found 8 of them that could use an upgrade at 1B a bunch of the guys who hit well last year fell down to earth. I don't think we'll really have a problem with getting good value for Abreu but we'll have to see what teams offer

The trade deadline isn't about WAR it's about filling needs and replacing non productive players with productive ones. If a bunch of teams need to replace their 1B and feel Abreu is the answer to fixing that then it won't matter what his WAR is or how much JDM went for. Conversely if you have a player who has a high WAR but where is isn't a market for his services among contenders it doesn't matter what previous players went for or his WAR the return will be limited.

There is a better then decent chance he's nontendered after this season already making 6+. There was a rumor earlier before the season but JBJ is worthless right now.

My preference is for prototypical size/skill guys for positions if they are being drafted 4th overall or a headliner in a trade. I don't mind taking a chance if they are the 2nd/3rd guy in a deal or drafted later. In Madrigal case we were drafting 4th there I don't want a grinder, scrappy hitter, leadoff guy. I'm expecting a superstar. I don't think he'll ever hit for enough power to get there. We'll see I guess.

Preach burner Hahn

He's a midget who throws with a ton of effort. Of all the guys to target he's not the guy.

I think Whitley is the guy to target. They have some lower guys that are interesting as well. Novis and Solis come to mind. He projects as a 1B/DH at the next level. Those guys don't really have a ton of value in trades regardless of where they rank prospect wise.

I think they've been hoping he regained his stuff which declined slightly and is part of the reason the Nationals moved him. But besides this there was always going to be busts in this rebuild. It's part of the reason why do we have too much pitching is sort of laughable. Young guys get TJ. They bust. About the only position I feel good about in the minors is the OF. We'd have to have a whole host of guys bust to not get three guys from that group.

Wow this thread is wrong on so many levels. We have some good prospects but you have to assume more then half flame out.

Best hope I have for him at this point is he become a reliever and finds some of his missing velocity as failed starters sometimes do. No idea what we are doing continuing to send him out there with mediocre stuff and being unable to locate his pitches.

I'm in favor of taking calculated risks just not badly calculated risks.

We'd be crazy to offer him an extension without seeing how his shoulder holds up first. So glad some of you guys aren't gm

We need to be trading for pitching prospects 1-2 years a way. Right now we have two big holes starters and middle infielders. We sort of got better in that with Madrigal. As far Harper and Machado goes we should have zero interest. This team isn't ready. We can't start the clock without knowing what we have from an internal standpoint. This rebuild could take 3 years, 4 years, even 5 years. Astros took 4 I believe the Cubs took three. We are in year two. You sign Machado you are essentially wasting what 60 million (two years) if you are assuming the contention is 2020. I honestly don't get the obsession for the two players look at the Orioles they are terrible with him. He's not going to single handily lift us to the playoffs. We don't have a starting rotation. We don't have an outfield. We probably won't have a bullpen after this deadline. Signing Machado or Harper is stupid sauce.