wrathofhahn

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2018#count::none *Note based on league average hitter of .722 OPS. To sort of simply things the league average hitter right now has a slash line of 194/203/297/500 when the pitcher is ahead. Moncada 164/164/315/497. But that sort of isn't the point a lot I want a better future for Moncada then league average. I mean 51% percent of the time he isn't even putting the ball in play.

I mean we do kind of know, it's extremely unlikely. The good thing about his K-rate is eventhough it's high he isn't a free swinger. His OSWING percentage is 24.1 which is more then manageable. What he needs to do more then anything is develop a two strike approach and be smarter about what teams are doing to attack him. When the count is 1-2 in 31 AB he has a .161 OBP 2-2 in 21 AB he has a .045 OBP. 0-2 in 19 AB he has a .105 OBP He needs to show he can work from behind the count and grind out at bats. All his other numbers when he's ahead or early are well above ML average.

I never said top 25. I said 25-50 that is sort of where when I did the projected surplus value on the most rosiest scenario (he continues his torrid hitting pace rather then using his career numbers) and plays every game of the season and it wouldn't have to be one for one swap and his surplus value would be at the bottom end of that fangraphs bucket probably somewhere between 40-50. Considering 51-75 was worth on average 24 million surplus value. I was using FG prospect values *adjusted to last year $/WAR so once again while you could name 0 WAR prospects (which is around 32% of cases for the bucket I picked) once again these are averages. All I was doing was giving a rough idea of what his 1.38 seasons of control is worth to a new club (assuming he is moved at the deadline). Also to be clear this really has nothing to do with an extension the only thing I was pushing back on was the idea that we couldn't get equal value for Abreu back in prospects. My point is while we may struggle to replicate the terribly lopsided deals like we made earlier for Q and Sale and to a lesser extent Adam Eaton I think we could easily get an interesting enough package back to pull the trigger.

That is an excellent point as well as the ESPN article. Abreu is very dependent on his bat speed because he doesn't really walk much. If he starts to swing through some of those pitches and has trouble with the fastball that could cause major problems Saying everything is a risk isn't a valid argument. Of course it is but as a fan I want my GM to take smart calculated risks not just throw up his hands and say screw it everything is a risk lets ignore the data and give Abreu a major extension. And yes I also realize prospects are a bet too but the thing is by age 33 Abreu will have likely declined and if we give him an extension we will directed dollars on a declining player that could have been spent elsewhere. That's sort of the thing the risk isn't equal that is why I posted the numbers earlier. The average 33 year old 1B/DH will have significantly declined and will only further decline as he gets older (likely little or no surplus value in his extension). If we even get one top 25-50 hitting prospect on average we will have gained around 30 million of surplus value over the course of his career. So yeah Abreu could be an outlier and the prospects could flame out but that is an unlikely scenario. That's why I posted the numbers earlier to show this.

That's correct but I could do the math on surplus value and figure out what we could expect. Just going off his surplus value if he continues his torrid pace this year he'll be worth 26.8 million surplus value (based on fangraphs 8.2 million WAR). Assuming he's moved on July 30 that means we'll likely have played around 100 games. Making his surplus value to his new club of 10.3 million (62 games) Next year projecting 162 games and a standard .5 WAR decline he'll be worth 4.2 WAR or 34.4 million total value. Projecting around 18 million salary that equals 16.4 million surplus value. So 10.3 million + 16.4 million equals 26.7 million. Thats basically the value of a 40-50th ranked prospect. I'm confident some team will offer that.

I think you are confused. The point is they are all outlier cases regardless of reason I just wanted to make the point that when you hear these older players like Beltre, like Gary Sheffield, like Palmeiro, probably the most famous case being Bonds in many cases these guys prolong their careers via unnatural means. Like I said earlier the data is the data and yes there are outliers but when you offer an extension you are absorbing a certain amount of risk and in Abreu case it would be a bad risk. So it becomes whether or not it makes sense to keep him for the 1.5 years left we have of control with where this club is at I would argue if we get a good offer it we should move him because we'd be wasting his best years and surplus value playing on a non-competitive club. And if we acquired prospects more inline with our timeline (2-3 years away) it would make more sense

Look you are coming up with a handful of names who are outliers some of which have been accused of using roids (Beltre actually has been proven). The data is the data this has already been done the regression rates of these ages are clear. So we can either hope Abreu is an outlier, hope he is using roids, or do the smart thing and move on and trade him when he has the most value.

The point is fans never think players are going to regress. For example Bautista (who likely had help) or Donaldson. But FO need to be smarter. The overwhelming evidence is players 33+ years old are bad bets to make that is Abreu age on his next extension so we burn through his most valuable years left to sign him to an extension through his decline when we are ready to compete? How does that make any sense? People aren't thinking with their head when it comes to Abreu.

Like who? People who have done regression models have proven for most players regression happens after age 29 and the huge dropoff starts at 32-33. Most of the guys with same style of hitters that defy the curve you find out later had help. Like for example Palmeiro. Or suspected guys like Cruz. I'm sure it happens outside of that but they are outliers for a reason.

I disagree with that I do agree however with your assessment that there is some added value of his leadership and clubhouse presence it just won't override what we could get back. I also hope he continues to go on a tear because the better he hits the more likely we are to get a big package back for him. They'll be some teams in need of a 1B this deadline. I named 8 of them earlier. I don't think this will be a JDM situation a bunch of 1B/DH on contending clubs really are struggling right now.

Will he in two years? Will he still be playing 1B even if he does do you want to sign an extension starting from age 33 onwards. For me the answer is no. Unless his value is so low that a comp pick would be worth more he should be moved now his value will never be higher and if people were honest about things they'd admit he doesn't fit the timetable either.

It also includes a base running component.

I never liked the signing to begin with but he was hitting unlike some of the other midrange guys who signed for less cough Avila. Interesting to see how he hits next year without the added help. If he was smart he would have laid of the drugs until next year and looked to cash in again. Melky knew how to play the game

Agreed on all fronts. People are too emotionally invested in Abreu they aren't thinking it through rationally at the end of his deal he'll be a 33 year old DH. Why are we worried about whether he resigns here or not at that point? Most of his value is in the fact he can still play 1B and is cost controlled for 1.5 years we'd be fools to not take advantage of that if at all possible

He has a vesting option he's easier to release then trade

Even when he was playing well he wasn't missing bats they need to figure out where his missing velo went and send him down until he gets ML caliber stuff. Keeping him up here really serves no purpose.

Cobb looks to be one of the biggest FA busts of the last five years. Guy should be DFA'ed but won't because of his contract.

Thats true they also probably get more then the offseason but if they traded him last season at the deadline I think with 1.5 years of control they get much more. Same with Abreu if we don't move him this deadline I don't think we get near as much in the offseason or next years deadline.

He's actually improved his BA by 20 points and his OBP by 27 points from last year. Dude is on the upswing can't send him down now.

I think if anything we should be looking to take back some short-term salary to get better prospects for example for the Yankees that could mean Brett Gardner.

Sure if they view him as an actual SS. UZR/150 -10.2, RngR -3.6 It won't matter if he continues to hit at the pace I guess but he's not a SS.

Well the problem with holding onto position players until they are rentals is your sort of at the mercy of the market. JD Martinez was mentioned earlier well part of the reason why the Tigers got so little is he was a rental the other problem is the Tigers moved him when there were a glut of 1B/DH at the time. That is sort of the problem with Machado. Most playoff teams already have a longterm guy at 3B. Beltre, Donaldson, Moustakas all figure to be available too. The trade deadline differs from the offseason. The trade deadline is about filling holes you can have an academic argument about how great Machados numbers are and they are you can talk about how much more valuable he is then a 1B/DH as a 3B is but if contending clubs need a 1B/DH thats who they'll target and if they feel they already have their longterm guys at 3B and those that don't - don't want to give up premium prospects what are you left with? The quote I gave regarding DD sort of exemplifies it. He thinks it's going to be a soft market maybe some team comes in and still blows their socks off but as the guy involved in trade discussions he would be in a better position then anyone to know

There will be a market. People have to sort of forget traditional trend-lines when it comes to trade value at the deadline and just look at need. A ton of clubs need a 1B/DH right now of course that could change if certain players bounce back but if the trendline continues there should be some competition for him. I named 8 previously.

They'll likely get much more at the deadline then the offseason but nowhere near what they would get if Machado had control. Per Dan Duquette (MLBTR): Brad Brach and Zach Britton could end up getting the most attention, as Duquette predicted “a robust market for relief pitchers.” The market for position players is harder to predict, with Duquette not knowing how things will fare in regards to a Manny Machado trade. “The issue for the Orioles would be, ’Will the Orioles ultimately trade a player who’s on his way to a Triple Crown or possibly MVP season?’” Duquette said. “That’s an issue for the club. And in the offseason, there were some teams interested in Manny, but there wasn’t a lot of talent coming back. Because teams know it’s going to take a lot of money to re-sign Manny.”

First of all we could definitely use some middle infielders prospects. We could use some high upside young SP prospects. Of course those are always in high demand.