Jump to content

thxfrthmmrs

Members
  • Content count

    4,092
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Everything posted by thxfrthmmrs

  1. thxfrthmmrs

    Blake Snell and Yu Darvish traded to San Diego

    It might not be much though. There is a chance Patino and Mejia become key contributors for Rays next year. They are such a well-oiled machine.
  2. thxfrthmmrs

    Blake Snell and Yu Darvish traded to San Diego

    I think Snell tend to get overrated and this package is actually pretty right for him. If it was Gore instead of Patino, it would have been a serious overpay. If you go by MLB prospect grades, Patino is 55, Wilcox 50, Hunt 45. For Sox it would have been similar to Crochet/Stiever/Collins/Rutherford for Snell. Wilcox might have more upside than Stiever so Padres might push for someone like Kelley instead. I'd do the former however.
  3. thxfrthmmrs

    Blake Snell and Yu Darvish traded to San Diego

    Let's see which slapdick prospects he got traded for.
  4. thxfrthmmrs

    Oscar Colas declared free agent

    Since Colas has officially declared, MLB Pipeline has updated their rankings. Colas is now ranked #2 behind Cespedes. However Colas has 55 hit 60 power 55 Run, while Cespedes has 50 hit and 55 power 60 run. Their defensive grades are the same. Colas looks to be the better prospect on paper and is a full year younger. Another reason to not read the Pipeline rankings too closely.
  5. thxfrthmmrs

    Joe Musgrove Thread

    bWAR is not a good stat to evaluate pitcher value and predict future performance. Use fWAR and Statcast, there is a huge difference between Musgrove and Lopez.
  6. thxfrthmmrs

    Joe Musgrove Thread

    Moncada, Cease, Crochet for starters.
  7. thxfrthmmrs

    Joe Musgrove Thread

    This is where you rely on fWAR over bWAR for pitcher evaluation. fWAR uses FIP as their basis for pitcher's WAR while BR uses runs allowed. The former provides a better indicator than the latter. Musgrove since becomes a full time starter 3 years ago: 2018 2.2 WAR / 19 GS 2019 3.3 WAR / 31 GS 2020 1 WAR/ 8 GS If you go with Statcast metrics, his xERA also suggests a pretty good pitcher. All in all, I think He's a a decent #3 starter who will give you 3-3.5 WAR in a full season, will cost somewhere around $8M over the next two years. I am not a Madrigal hater though, so I wouldn't give up Madrigal for him. Any combination of Stiever, Adolfo, Collins, Rutherford would be fine by me.
  8. thxfrthmmrs

    What is Moncada's Value?

    Take whatever value a 65-70 FV prospect produces. It would be a lot higher than whatever BTV is projecting. Or even if you just use Steamer, it's 3.3 WAR for 2021, conservatively project the same number for next 4 years (pretend there won't be any progression for a player entering his prime) multiple by $9M/WAR, it would be a lot higher than what his AFV is on BTV.
  9. thxfrthmmrs

    What is Moncada's Value?

    I find it interesting you insist on using his bWAR when BTV points to FG. 1.6 fWAR x2.7 multiplier = 4.3 fWAR in 2020.
  10. thxfrthmmrs

    What is Moncada's Value?

    Use player's FV grades if they're a prospect/young player, for older players use player recent 3 year trend, identify similar comps, and project their production for the next 3-5 years. There are many models that do this already it's nothing new. Also RE: recency bias. How do you explain Vlad Jr's AFV on BTV coming off 0.4 and 0.3 seasons if they're truly recency biased? It's clear that they do plug in some numbers based on prospect grades, but some of it are just off.
  11. thxfrthmmrs

    What is Moncada's Value?

    Terrible take. You don't average WAR for a player who spent majority of some of those years in the minors. If that's how BTV projects Moncada's value for the next 5 years, then they need to go back to the drawing board.
  12. thxfrthmmrs

    What is Moncada's Value?

    Let's take Jack Flaherty vs. Yoan Moncada as an example, since both players had an incredible 2019 but a down year in 2020. Flaherty 2019 4.7 fWAR 5.7 bWAR 2020 0.6 fWAR -0.3 bWAR 2021 Steamer 2.9 fWAR Moncada 2019 5.7 fWAR 4.8 bWAR 2020 1.6 fWAR 0.7 bWAR 2021 Steamer 3.3 fWAR Now I am not sure which WAR model BTV uses, you referenced the lower of Moncada's 2020 WAR, but BTV links to the players profile on Fangraphs. One would then assume their model is more aligned to FG, which Moncada is considerably more valuable in 2019 and 2020. Using the logic that they are recency biased, it would be make sense if Flaherty projects to be a less valuable going forward than Moncada, especially since Flaherty has only 3 years of control left, and Moncada has 4 not counting the 2025 team option (and BTV incorrectly listed only 3 years of control left, yet they seem to have counted his salaries for the next 4 years, leading to a negative SV). Now they are projecting Flaherty to produce 103.2 AFV over the next 3 years while only 83.8 for Yoan (the difference here is SV fo a Dylan Cease), so this isn't just a dumb tool is fed with numbers from recent performance and spits out a projected value going forward. The problem here lies they have their own projection model, and it is different than the industry projection models, they also have some data issue where they only projected 3 years of control left for Moncada and counted his salaries for next 4. I would say the tool is a good baseline to check the ballpark estimate of SV for a player or trade, but it does leave room of subjectivity, Moncada is perfect example of an outlier. And for shits and giggles, if we do not apply subjectivity to the BTV values, we end up with shit like these:
  13. thxfrthmmrs

    Oscar Colas declared free agent

    Do you think Sox is a possibility for Pino and Yamel as well? I would think 2/3 (most likely Colas and Pino) is a good haul. Yamel previously had a $2.8M agreement with Rockies, and both Colas and Pino should sign for Cespedes money if not more. I’m sure they also have some minor signings lined up.
  14. thxfrthmmrs

    Oscar Colas declared free agent

    James had this 6 months ago: http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?/topic/109238-intl-bonus-pools-announced/&do=findComment&comment=3923687 And Badler called the Cespedes signing 2 months ago: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/chicago-white-sox-2020-21-international-signing-preview/ They pretty much confirmed Sox have no money left for the next period.
  15. thxfrthmmrs

    Badler: Sox expected to sign Yoelki Cespedes

    Thanks for sharing. I would assume BA was being a bit more conservative and did not want to rank him based on the rumor swing and body change, and the ranking is based on when he last played in Cuba (he didn't set the world on fire), while MLB may be putting a lot of stock into the recent changes, hence the 1st vs. 12th ranking, which is a pretty big gap. IIRC BA and Pipeline were also pretty far off on Adolfo ranking a few years back, but they have never been this far off in terms of the best prospect in the class.
  16. thxfrthmmrs

    Badler: Sox expected to sign Yoelki Cespedes

    For those with BA subscriptions, do they have tool grades and a blurb of scouting report on Cespedes similar to MLB Pipeline? They only have him ranked 12th, so it’s interesting to see they evaluation of him.
  17. thxfrthmmrs

    Badler: Sox expected to sign Yoelki Cespedes

    Those players would have graduated and make the big league team even better, and signal the infusion of the next wave of talent (minus Kopech, whose clock had been running). But I agree we do need to see a few of the young guys to step up after the top 3 graduates to keep the farm ranking respectable, from the group of young guys like Kelley, Thompson, Dalquist, Vera, Bailey, Sanchez, Ramos, Bush, Beard, Gladney, and Rodriguez.
  18. thxfrthmmrs

    Badler: Sox expected to sign Yoelki Cespedes

    At what point are we just getting greedy?
  19. thxfrthmmrs

    Badler: Sox expected to sign Yoelki Cespedes

    The 2020 signing period was mostly in the books when they made the rule change, so it didn't make sense for them to implement the no trade rule, so I think they just extended the 2020 period, and the no trade rule applies for future periods only. Here's the link: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/new-deal-saves-2020-mlb-draft-but-hurts-incoming-talent/
  20. thxfrthmmrs

    Badler: Sox expected to sign Yoelki Cespedes

    Vaughn/Kopech/Crochet/Cespedes/Kelley/Dalquist/Thompson. Is this still a top 10 farm? We’d be one of the few teams with a playoff caliber roster and a Top 10 farm.
  21. thxfrthmmrs

    Badler: Sox expected to sign Yoelki Cespedes

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2019/10/31/white-sox-trade-center-welington-castillo-to-rangers/40523555/ They traded $250K only, Castillo's buyout was $500K. Edit: This is false on both accounts. They haven't been barred on trading for 2020 period, which ends either this month for next. There is no trading for the next two signing period. Either way, I just don't think the $250K is really preventing them from signing both, if their money remaining + $250K is enough to sign Colas.
  22. thxfrthmmrs

    Badler: Sox expected to sign Yoelki Cespedes

    But at the same time, how much did we deal to Texas? $250K? If Colas is ready to sign, we could get $250K back in another deal to sign Vera in 2020? IIRC we could still trade for slot bonus for 2020.
  23. thxfrthmmrs

    Back-Up Catcher

    Did I miss the news that Tim Anderson got traded?
  24. thxfrthmmrs

    Do the sox even have another need?

    What is your goal? To be just a good team? The answer is no. To be a WS contender? Then unequivocally YES.
  25. thxfrthmmrs

    You have $30m to complete the roster...

    2/$75 or 3/$110. $37M AAV would be reasonable in a short term deal.
×