Dominikk85

I think You are overrating the influence of negotiating skills, panicking etc in modern baseball. This was very important 10-20 years ago but in these days pretty much every front office has a pretty good concept of surplus value and real "fleecings" are quite rare. Dunning is a number 5 starter, longenhagen last had him as a 45 fv, he certainly isn't the headliner for a controlled star. There is not much precedent of a 28 year old star getting traded without at least moving a 55 or an established major leaguer in his prime. If they could have gotten more for dunning the sox would have done it. I believe the price for castillo is a 60 AND a 50 (but certainly not vaughn and kopech, that would be too much).

That is why the Sox got lynn. Castillo is 28 and has 3 years of control, that deal starts with a top20 prospect (60fv) or it doesn't happen at all. Fans always want to trade 6 mediocre prospects for a star but that doesn't work in reality, teams don't go quantity over quality because most 40fv prospects don't make the show at all. Castillo is projected for 4 war, only 28 and has 3 years of control, those drills don't happen without a 60fv or a good young major leaguer as headliner. Imo the sox don't need to make such a trade, they can sign another guy and keep their prospects.

The big question is whether the reports about leiter's velo gain are true and he can transfer that through the season. If leiter is low 90s he is probably 3 to 5. But if he is sitting mid 90s he is far and away the best player in the draft. That is a bit like Bieber. With his 4 solid pitches and great command he was a solid middle of the rotation guy but when he went to 95 he became that super ace. Leiter is a little similar. Also big repotoire and good command but question is the velo. Either he is a rather safe middle of the rotation guy or he can increase his velo a little which also makes his offspeed stuff a little crispier and he could become that ace. Because of this I think leiter might be the guy out of the top5-6 who is most affected by his 2021 performance, not necessarily his results (he likely dominates college with 91 too) but his velo. If he is really up like some reports said he is clearly the best player but at 91 his upside might be a little too limited for number 1 and he will go 3-5.

Probably means they are out on bauer too?

I agree. If you draft top5 overall a college player makes sense as you can get ceiling and floor. For example vaughn is safe but still can become a 3.5 war player. If you draft at 20 your college players will have limited upside with the exception of some pitchers with injury and command concerns like crochet. Maybe the can get a walker buehler, gavin lux or forrest whitley. Plenty of those hs picks bust but there is big upside.

I already wrote in another thread: I think it depends on whether there is a full (or at least 60+%) minor league season. If there is a full milb season both will be in the minors. However if there is no milb season (or just a 30 game fall league) then crochet might be put in the pen and that might be it with starting as he probably would need to milb seasons to be ready as a starter and are you sending him back to the minors after two years with some mlb exposure? I just hope there is a milb season.

How is a 40+ grade "crazy high"? 40 basically means a 1 win player/low leverage reliever Also Which grades don't add up?

Yeah, the question then is if he is done as a starter then or you take the time to send him back. Still young enough even after 2021 but I wonder if the sox would really do it.

I Hope not. However what is if there is no minor league season again or a very shortened one? Do you keep him at the site throwing sim games or do you put him into the pen in the majors? And do you put him back in the minors after two years of consecutive mlb exposure? The situation is really not easy, I hope there will be an milb season where he can work on his starting because if he has to pitch in the majors and is an ace 2WAR closer (essentially a 50 rv but probably more 55 due to leverage) they might just keep him there and give him the closer job.

Outfield is really a disappointment in the sox system after Eloy and robert there were a lot of busts. Obviously not anyone can work out but I thought that at least one of rutherford, basabe, adolfo, gonzalez or walker would turn like into an average right fielder.

Interesting he sees crochet more likely as a reliever. I still hope they try to make him a starter and don't push him as a reliever too much. Needs to work on minors on third pitch, stamina and command

I think that recognition by peers does matter though. Yes helton or abreu are better players than vizquel but if you ask mlb players who played from 1990 to 2010 probably 90% say vizquel is the second best fielder of all time and should be in the hall. Yeah stats don't support that but I doubt mlb players care about jaws or war.

I agree, statistically vizquel is not a HOFer.however most baseball people like players, managers and other baseball lifers do think he is a HOFer and think he is a glove got on paar with ozzie. Stats don't support that but the guys who played with and Against him do see him as a HOFer, especially latin players and coaches.

I think some of the private coaches also overdo the stuff that is presented as modern coaching. For example we now know that good players do use a slight uppercut swing but some coaches overdo this and teach like extreme uppercuts and tell kids strikeouts don't matter as long you hit for power. I think this swing metrics stuff is valuable and I work with some kids using blast sensors and other stuff but I still think the hit tool is very important and needs to be taught before you worry about power. Not talking about teaching slapping grounders but this "I only teach pull side bombs because pulled fly balls statistically do best in mlb" imo is not good, kids need to learn to hit liners to all fields first and after they master that they might work a little more on their pull side power. There still has to be a progression. I also don't teach to hit cage bombs. Some twitter coaches brag with posting rapsodo bombs at 35 degrees in the cage but I prefer to teach to hit high liners about 15-20 degrees (upper back corner of the cage to roof of the cage in its last third of length) be because I feel this gives the most margin for error, if you get on top it is a low liner or hard grounder and slightly under it is a nuke. If you aim for the bomb you might hit too many pop outs but aiming too low (like they used to teach middle of the L screen) it is not great either because in the cage that low ball (into pitchers balls:)) looks like a liner but after 110 feet to the SS that is probably a one hopper. The modern stuff is good but some have just overdone it by interpreting mlb data without context. Teach that modern stuff but don't disregard the hit tool and try to make everyone a mini adam dunn:).

NBA also had the advantage that more than half of the season was over at the time of the lockdown and thus a lot of gate revenue already was in the books. Also as it was said nba has smaller audiences and a larger percentage made on TV. Mlb has the disadvantage that they mostly have local cable deals and local viewership while for example nfl gets watched all over the country in national tv.

I would like that too at 22, maybe they can get another crochet type with ace starter ceiling and closer "floor" (actual floor of course is career ending injury or performance bust, but I'm talking maybe like 40th-50th percentile outcome or so). Either that or a true CF or SS HS prospect.

Yeah it could be negotiation. Maybe the owners will strive for something like first half of the season reduced player salaries to accommodate for the lost money and then when enough people are vaccinated players get full prorated salary for the games with full gate. Players probably won't like that so I can see a compromise like a 120 game season at full prorated salary or so.

Give me an athletic hitter with a real chance to stick up the middle. No more "maybe he can stick at that position but might be a DH guys".

I don't have a problem with keeping vaughn down until summer and make him earn it in the minors but I would not want to spend on a pure DH who might clog the roster after the break.

I also think Vaughn will be ready but I think the alternate site thing gets overrated. Longenhagen said alternate site is pretty useless for hitters because hitters see the same pitchers over and over again and also pitchers would be afraid to throw inside to top prospects (fear of hurting them). It is better than sitting around or just hitting in the cage but not comparable to game experience.

A lefty bat would be good but I would prefer an outfielder because you have vaughn and eloy also can use some days at DH when he is banged up again. So better get an OF who can DH occasionally instead of creating a DH logjam.

I would say their roster is pretty complete except for another good reliever or two. Rotation: Giolito, keuchel, lynn, two of kopech, cease, lopez, stiever 😄 grandal 1b:jose 2b: madrigal 3b: moncada ss: timmy CF: robert Lf: eloy Rf: eaton Bench: engel, mendick, leury DH: vaughn, Collins, yermin I think they definitely need one more good reliever but other than that the team looks pretty great. Sure the back end of the rotation is still a little thin and getting bauer would be great but it still could be a great rotation if kopech comes back decently.

Great Interview btw, also some insights about sox player dev

Yeah but spending 30 Mil on a Back Up Catcher is pretty steep. Sure grandal could get injured and then having that backup would be nice but the Sox are not the dodgers/yankees and spending that much on a guy who might catch 60 games when you have limited ressources is just not very smart economically.

Good for him. He did improve both defensively and offensively. Still I don't think he is close to being as good as he was last year, his stats were inflated by a high babip and by being protected, i.e put into favorable platoon situations. I expect him to be about a 100 wrc+ hitter if he plays full season, grandal should clearly be better than that. Still a well deserved payday and good for him he got it. In the end this was his one chance to get a payday and a starting gig and he took the chance. Of course catcher will be a bit weaker in chicago next year but with grandal probably catching like 130 games you don't need such a good backup if you have to pay him.