Dominikk85

Stiever and rutherford would be a great price. Longenhagen has stiever a 40+ and rutherford a 40. I think he is a little too low on stiever and it should be more like 45 but still that would be a great price for a 28yo guy projected for like 3 war next season and 2022. The sox would immediately do that trade but I think it would require a better headliner. Madrigal would be too good though, I think it should be a 50 and a young higher upside 40+ or so. His surplus value would come out at about 40m or so which would require a 50 and a 45 as return for him but madrigal as a 55 alone would be worth about 45m so that would be too much.

Musgrove ist certainly way better than replacement level, last 3 years he was 2.2, 3 3 and 1 (2.7 full season) war which makes him a 3/4. However I wouldn't want to give up madrigal either for him as it would be similar player quality but only a third of the control years.

Even using that calculation average war still was 2.7 over the last 3 years. 1.3+4.8+(0.7*2.7)=8.2 8.2/3=2.7

Does this account for the shortened season? Moncada was worth 1.6 fWAR last year but prorated that would have been 4.2 war for a full season. Using that moncada averaged 4 war the last 3 seasons.

He ist also very injury Prone. But for a two year deal he would be a pretty good get, he doesn't strike out much, walks quite a bit and also has gotten a bit of pop recently. Could definitely be done, slow cook vaughn a little and platoon him a little with outfield and infield and you can find ABs for him.

I think he means moose actually would be a negative compensation. He still can hit but overall his contract has negative value so including him would add salary to the package and thus lower the prospect price.

Yeah longenhagen did believe that madrigal would eventually grow into about 15 homer power which might not be in play anymore. But otoh if madrigal becomes an elite defender and baserunner he might be a 3 win player even with a 95-100 wrc+ bat.

Isnt 30 mil a bit light on madrigal? Longenhagen has him a 55 which is worth about 40-45m. The 30m would put him at more like a 50.

I guess how cheap castillo comes in prospects depends on how much salary you are willing to take on. I already said usually it would require a 60 tv and a 50fv to get castillo however you might get him for a very light package (say a 50fv and two 45s) if you are willing to take on 25-30 mil of salary. Math is a 60fv is worth about 60m and a 50 about 25m and a 45 about 7m. This means the 60 and 50 package is worth 85m and the 50,45,45 is worth about 40m. This means some difference has to be paid because obviously castillo is worth more than 40m.

This was asked in a fangraphs chat and they said the owners would make sure this would get punished very tough. This is also why that braves GM and the braves got punished more than the astros, owners are very strict against any rule violation that increases player player earnings because they don't want a precedent to be set that could cost owners money. The owners simply don't want an under the table bidding war. This is not about integrity and level playing field but about controlling owner expenses which is extremely important to owners. So if a team did it the owners would demand manfred to punish this.

I don't get why him and ohtani did not wait till age 25 and become an unrestricted free agent. The first 3 years in mlb pay is probably worse than in japan plus colas might need to get into the minors for no pay at all. I read ohtani made like 1 mil in japan per year so why not stay there till age 25, make more than in mlb during that Time and more importantly not be under contract for 3 more years but be able to sign a 100mil contract at age 25. Now of course he could get hurt and never make mlb but don't forget that in the first 6 years mlb contracts aren't guaranteed either.

I think generally the market is worse for selling teams, especially when you need to attach contract money. Less teams will be trying to compete and spend money and a lot will use the financial situation as an excuse to retool. This means the market for castillo might not be as robust as usual. Under normal circumstances of course the headliner would be a top15 overall prospect And the second piece a top100 too as we are talking about a 28yo star pitcher with 3 years. The package would not quite be like the sale package but still pretty close (not a top3 and a top40 prospect like the sox got but more like 12th and 70th overall prospect). However with this situation and financial constraints he might be a bit cheaper but the headliner should still at least be a 55fv if not a 60. If you get him for a 55 and a 45 that would be a huge bargain. However the sox could of course use him but with giolito, keuchel and lynn I'm not sure they really need him, they can just as well get a solid 4 and have a well above average rotation. That is the good thing about the lynn trade, by surplus value you likely lose that deal but it puts the sox in a comfortable position were they now just can wait out the market. In theory they could now just wait till March and see who is desperate to sign then.

He definitely has a lot of trade value but not quite on the moncada level back then because he is a 1b. Still he is very valuable because he is very cheap and projects to be a 3 war 1b man. 1b value drops once players hit arb though because arb pays for homers and RBI and doesn't factor in position so compared to their war 1b tend to get overpaid in arb.

They don't have an Position for vaughn unless they are willing to eat votto's salary which they likely aren't. I think think would prefer another prospect in the 15-25 overall range as a headliner that fits better into their lineup.

I think both the us healthcare system and education system both are insanely cost inflated. Especially on the healthcare side people are arguing about free market but the US system is not more cost efficient than the "socialist" european systems but in fact the stuff is way more expensive in the us than in many other industrialized countries. Obviously in europe healthcare isn't free either as it has to be paid for too but still if you account for that US system is way more expensive. The only argument for such a system like in the US would be that it is more cost efficient but it isn't and by a lot. Also is Healthcare actually spends a higher percentage on administrative costs than public systems which also is stupid. I don't have anything against capitalism but healthcare and education industry in the US seems to be an expensive, inefficient thing.

The worst thing about trump is that he will legitimate discussions difficult. Trump was very smart with his counterattack strategy. When trump was facing legitimate criticism by the left he would just make up a counterpoint. For example when confronted with identity politics and racism accusations trump basically declared white people a discriminated group (kinda like POC get all the stipends and poor white get nothing) When confronted with the legitimate issue of black voter suppression he made up his own election manipulation thing. This makes it tougher to discuss this issues in the Future because then Republicans will just say "but you stole the election too" and in the end this stuff is probably lost all together because trump kinda created a stalemate were both accuse each other of cheating. This won't save trump from his lost election but it will make some discussions tougher.

The Sox are in a great position now due to the lynn trade. Another TOR starter would be great but even if they get only a decent 4 starter their rotation could be pretty good with giolito, lynn, keuchel, new guy and one of cease or kopech. This means they don't really have much pressure and can wait in contract negotiations. Get a solid 4 and a late inning reliever and the team looks great and should make the post season. And if they get a TOR like bauer that makes them easily the best AL team.

I agree. They still need to pay votto who can't be moved.

I think You are overrating the influence of negotiating skills, panicking etc in modern baseball. This was very important 10-20 years ago but in these days pretty much every front office has a pretty good concept of surplus value and real "fleecings" are quite rare. Dunning is a number 5 starter, longenhagen last had him as a 45 fv, he certainly isn't the headliner for a controlled star. There is not much precedent of a 28 year old star getting traded without at least moving a 55 or an established major leaguer in his prime. If they could have gotten more for dunning the sox would have done it. I believe the price for castillo is a 60 AND a 50 (but certainly not vaughn and kopech, that would be too much).

That is why the Sox got lynn. Castillo is 28 and has 3 years of control, that deal starts with a top20 prospect (60fv) or it doesn't happen at all. Fans always want to trade 6 mediocre prospects for a star but that doesn't work in reality, teams don't go quantity over quality because most 40fv prospects don't make the show at all. Castillo is projected for 4 war, only 28 and has 3 years of control, those drills don't happen without a 60fv or a good young major leaguer as headliner. Imo the sox don't need to make such a trade, they can sign another guy and keep their prospects.

The big question is whether the reports about leiter's velo gain are true and he can transfer that through the season. If leiter is low 90s he is probably 3 to 5. But if he is sitting mid 90s he is far and away the best player in the draft. That is a bit like Bieber. With his 4 solid pitches and great command he was a solid middle of the rotation guy but when he went to 95 he became that super ace. Leiter is a little similar. Also big repotoire and good command but question is the velo. Either he is a rather safe middle of the rotation guy or he can increase his velo a little which also makes his offspeed stuff a little crispier and he could become that ace. Because of this I think leiter might be the guy out of the top5-6 who is most affected by his 2021 performance, not necessarily his results (he likely dominates college with 91 too) but his velo. If he is really up like some reports said he is clearly the best player but at 91 his upside might be a little too limited for number 1 and he will go 3-5.

Probably means they are out on bauer too?

I agree. If you draft top5 overall a college player makes sense as you can get ceiling and floor. For example vaughn is safe but still can become a 3.5 war player. If you draft at 20 your college players will have limited upside with the exception of some pitchers with injury and command concerns like crochet. Maybe the can get a walker buehler, gavin lux or forrest whitley. Plenty of those hs picks bust but there is big upside.

I already wrote in another thread: I think it depends on whether there is a full (or at least 60+%) minor league season. If there is a full milb season both will be in the minors. However if there is no milb season (or just a 30 game fall league) then crochet might be put in the pen and that might be it with starting as he probably would need to milb seasons to be ready as a starter and are you sending him back to the minors after two years with some mlb exposure? I just hope there is a milb season.

How is a 40+ grade "crazy high"? 40 basically means a 1 win player/low leverage reliever Also Which grades don't add up?