Gene Honda Civic Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 Inspired by this article by Studes over at hardballtimes.com. Studes did a graphical representation of how each team in baseball produces runs. The White Sox have been amazingly clutch this season, second in the Majors in BA w/RISP, and that's the only thing that has saved them from competing with the Royals to avoid the Central Cellar. The problem is despite being clutch with men in scoring position, the Sox have the third fewest opportunities in baseball, last in the AL. As seen in this graph. Our OBP is about middle of the road in the AL, and is exactly in the middle of all of baseball. Here's what Studes had to say about the sox: The White Sox are the truly odd team on this chart -- they lead the league in batting with RISP, but they have the third-least total number of runners in scoring position. BA with RISP tends to be equal to overall BA. In the AL, teams are batting .271 overall, and .271 with RISP. But the Sox are batting .291 with RISP vs. .268 overall. In other words they've been lucky by hitting well in clutch situations, despite what you may have heard about injuries to their top hitters. In general, runners get into scoring position one of three ways: - 20% get there by reaching first (via a single or walk) and moving on by stealing a base or by a teammate's "productive out". - 30% get there directly by hitting a double or triple. - 50% get there by reaching first, and subsequently moving on via a positive contribution (hit, walk, etc.) from a teammate. When first hired, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen talked a lot about getting his runners in motion, but the Sox don't reach first base enough in the first place; they are third from last in singles, walks and HBP combined. They've batted well with RISP and hit a lot of home runs, but reaching scoring position has been their problem So how do we reach scoring position more often? We need contact/OBP guys. Contact to ensure we can move guys over. OBP to reach base more often. (no more third worst in baseball.) At least 2 of the Konerko/Lee/Valentin/Uribe/Crede-Crew need to be gone, replaced with a guy who doesn't strike out much, can get on base, and move runners over, preferrably left handed, though not required. In short we need a more balanced line-up, and if it doesn't get addressed, we will not win the Central again next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted August 31, 2004 Author Share Posted August 31, 2004 I just did a little more research. Only the Yankees hit more HR's with men on base. (51 to our 50) The yankees, Sox, and Rangers all had a simillar rate of HR/H with men in scoring postion, but because the Sox have far fewer AB's with men in scoring position, they have the best ratio of HR's per AB w/ RISP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFan562004 Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 Great stuff! I think the Red Sox may want to dump Damon's salary if they have to resign a bunch of their players and make a run at another FA.... not sure if his numbers would help with this, but I would love to see Captain Caveman in the outfield for the White Sox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonkeyKongerko Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 Funny I saw that this morning and was gonna post it because it showed how extreme the Sox are in one direction and not the other. When I saw that I also found it hard to believe we were that clutch. Does anyone feel like we've been that clutch this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
He_Gawn Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 Heck yea, Sign me up for Damon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted August 31, 2004 Author Share Posted August 31, 2004 (edited) Funny I saw that this morning and was gonna post it because it showed how extreme the Sox are in one direction and not the other. When I saw that I also found it hard to believe we were that clutch. Does anyone feel like we've been that clutch this year? That's what made my jaw hit the floor -- I couldn't belive we're that clutch, but I guess we are.. Here's where we rank in baseball in RISP situations. BA - #2 - (trailing only Boston) OBP - #3 - (trailing only Boston, and the Bonds inflated Giants) SLG - #1 OPS - #1 Edited August 31, 2004 by The Cheat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LosMediasBlancas Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 thx for the info Cheat, good stuff. Why does it still feel like the Sox are anything but clutch?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 Can you say... "The Cat" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilliamTell Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 I have the cure for this, we need more runners on 2nd and 3rd but how they get there, I haven't a clue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 Thanks for those graphs Cheat, I enjoyed that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackie hayes Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 So how do we reach scoring position more often? We need contact/OBP guys. Contact to ensure we can move guys over. OBP to reach base more often. (no more third worst in baseball.) At least 2 of the Konerko/Lee/Valentin/Uribe/Crede-Crew need to be gone, replaced with a guy who doesn't strike out much, can get on base, and move runners over, preferrably left handed, though not required. In short we need a more balanced line-up, and if it doesn't get addressed, we will not win the Central again next season. I've been thinking about your post for a long time now, and I just don't know if the answer is as clear as you say. Our obp is about average, so how do we know getting an obp-type player helps? And how good does the obp have to be? Anyway, Lee and Konerko have been pretty good this year in terms of obp -- even better than Magglio. And they've each had a better k/ab rate than Rowand, who's obviously staying. Does anyone know what this would look like before vs after the big 2 went down? My guess -- and that's all it is -- is that the anomaly is mostly explained by the injuries. After Frank and Magglio went down, there were a lot fewer opportunities -- Frank walks so much, Magglio seems to be a natural "productive out" guy -- so the average is weighted more heavily towards the early part of the season, when our lineup had fewer holes and we were hitting better anyway. I doubt we'd look so clutch post-injuries. This team is somewhat lopsided at full strength (towards power) -- but those injuries really tipped the scales. I'd like to adjust it a little bit, esp by switching Crede, who's been our weakest hitter, and perhaps in the choice of Magglio's replacement. But it would be hard for any team without their two best hitters. For all the Marlins small-ball stylings, they would have been lost without Lowell and Cabrera, or Lowell and Pudge. And Frank and Magglio are just as good, and just as important to the Sox. Anyway, that's my read on these stats, FWIW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackBetsy Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 Awesome stuff! Question, though - which high-OBP players will be available on the free agent market this offseason? I can't think of any, really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilliamTell Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 They are nice graphs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted August 31, 2004 Author Share Posted August 31, 2004 Our obp is about average, so how do we know getting an obp-type player helps? And how good does the obp have to be? I can't easily do that -- But using the All-star game as a split is pretty easy. The Sox rank last in baseball in getting on base((H+BB+HBP)/G) since the break. Our OBP is better than some because of the other teams over that stretch because of SH/SF/DP's --- With Frank and Maggs the sox ranked in the upper 3rd in OBP or the (H+BB+HBP)/G stat that studes was talking about. We know OBP type players help because when Frank and Maggs went down we lost. How good does the OBP have to be -- It's hard to put that into quantifiable terms, but I would put it this way. You'd like to increase your OBP without sacrificing SLG-- In other words increase OPS, of the players you're replacing, without sacrificing power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackie hayes Posted August 31, 2004 Share Posted August 31, 2004 I can't easily do that -- But using the All-star game as a split is pretty easy. The Sox rank last in baseball in getting on base((H+BB+HBP)/G) since the break. Our OBP is better than some because of the other teams over that stretch because of SH/SF/DP's --- With Frank and Maggs the sox ranked in the upper 3rd in OBP or the (H+BB+HBP)/G stat that studes was talking about. We know OBP type players help because when Frank and Maggs went down we lost. How good does the OBP have to be -- It's hard to put that into quantifiable terms, but I would put it this way. You'd like to increase your OBP without sacrificing SLG-- In other words increase OPS, of the players you're replacing, without sacrificing power. Right, I agree with what you're saying here. I was never saying that obp is not important, only that getting rid of some of the guys you mention (especially PK and Lee) wouldn't lead to a big improvement in that area, nor necessarily in the k-prevention area, which is also important in the move-overs, 20% of getting RISP. (One small point -- our doubles hitting is somewhat low this year. Not sure why.) I'm willing to sacrifice some slg for obp (ie, take a lesser ops player). But it would be hard to find someone (realistic) at ss who wouldn't be a drop off the cliff from Valentin's slg. My basic point was just that the season-totals used in the chart are probably misleading for the Sox. The team in the first half (more or less) was well constructed, and wouldn't look so odd. Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but I don't think what you're saying contradicts this...right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 Awesome stuff! Question, though - which high-OBP players will be available on the free agent market this offseason? I can't think of any, really. Most of this list are free agents and others could prob be available in a trade. Frank Catalanotto OBP of .344 Corey Koskie OBP of .345 Omar Vizquel OBP of .365 Randy Winn OBP of .351 Julio Lugo OBP of .340 Orlando Hudson OBP of .344 Shea Hillenbrand OBP of .345 Juan Pierre OBP of .360 Dave Roberts OBP of .340 Craig Counsell OBP of .346 Placido Polanco OBP of .330 And now some of our guys, Jose Valentin OBP of .290 Carl Everett OBP of .318 Joe Crede OBP of .292 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iguana Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 i think Harris should try more drag bunts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFanForever Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 A guy I would really like to add via trade would be Wilkerson. As you may realize, I am a big fan of his. He may strike out a bit but he also has a .382 obp this year and can play all 3 OF positions and 1B as well. I think he would be a great addition, can hit in the top of the order and is a lefty stick to boot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palehosefan Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 Someone needs to sneak in and scratch Valentin, Crede, and Borchard from the lineup everyday for the rest of the season. Minny would be scared to death. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwerty Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 A guy I would really like to add via trade would be Wilkerson. As you may realize, I am a big fan of his. He may strike out a bit but he also has a .382 obp this year and can play all 3 OF positions and 1B as well. I think he would be a great addition, can hit in the top of the order and is a lefty stick to boot. I think in the next year or two he is just gonna explode. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFanForever Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 I think in the next yera or two he is just gonna explode. Agreed, and I would love to get him for when that happens. The guy is gonna be a stud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 This is great stuff. I am still wondering why we got rid of Reed, but we got Garcia, so it's all good. I would like Damon though. He's a very good player and would be a nice addition to the team...so long as he shaves . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 This is great stuff. I am still wondering why we got rid of Reed, but we got Garcia, so it's all good. I would like Damon though. He's a very good player and would be a nice addition to the team...so long as he shaves . What are Damon's contract figures for the next few years, I know it would be pretty hard for us to acquire him financially, when we've got other holes to fill in our payroll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted September 1, 2004 Author Share Posted September 1, 2004 This is great stuff. I am still wondering why we got rid of Reed, but we got Garcia, so it's all good. I was not all that outraged when we traded Reed, but the more I look at the deficiencies of this club, the more I would love to be pencilling him into the #2 hole for every game the rest of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted September 1, 2004 Share Posted September 1, 2004 I was not all that outraged when we traded Reed, but the more I look at the deficiencies of this club, the more I would love to be pencilling him into the #2 hole for every game the rest of the season. Neither was I...in fact, I probably felt exactly the same way you felt and many others felt...Reed was no big loss, it was losing Mo that hurt the most...of course, since then, Ben Davis has hit out of his mind(and Burke has been solid too), and Freddy has pitched very well. But it be would nice to see Reed in CF or RF right now, or at the very least, seeing him play 1B(I thought I remember reading that he was going to or can play 1B), hell, even DH...I mean, Jobo's 500 foot blast was fun, but seeing Reed develop into a solid hitter would be that much better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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