Look at Ray Ray Run

Amazing that they got to 1 trillion in less than 2 years from this post. Up 1000% feels pretty good. So again I don't give much invest advice in public, but my next big play is Li-Cycle (in them large) and some Ford. Moreso li-cycle though. I think you're looking at the soon-to-be fastest growing market in the world (battery recycling) and I've been in LICY since June 2021 as I love how far along they are compared to competition. I think you're looking at a 20-40b market cap in the next 4-5 years and then a possible huge explosion 6 years out as EVs start to need battery swaps and etc for the market that is really taking off. Recycled lithium a huge component here too

I don't disagree, I just think you give the benefit of the doubt to the Sox far too often.

So he's not 100% healthy, but they would rather bring him back for multiple years than for one year. Hmmmm, makes a lot of sense!

But... in a way they are? Again, Verlander, Syndergaard, Ed Rod and etc were all extended QO's. I noted earlier if Carlos has off-season surgery I would 100% understand. If he doesn't, he signs somewhere, and then passes his physical then this is a horrible move. It's really that simple. Could he fail his physical or have surgery? Sure. Do the Sox deserve the benefit of the doubt that they're not being cheap? Absolutely not. All Carlos costs was money. Instead the Sox will probably end up trading more assets for "affordable" arms like they did with Lynn. This team should be pushing 190+ million dollar payroll, but we know that won't happen. How is that not frustrating? If they really trade Kimbrel, they're at about 140 now. Carlos puts them at 158. They could still sign a 2B and another SP/RP if they acted like an actual heart-of-the-contention window organization.

If $18 million is 75% of what this team has to spend then that's the entire issue.

Look around the league. There's nothing absurd about it. Verlander, Syndergaard, Ed Rod all got QO's. Carlos had the 2nd highest projected WAR of all players who could have been offered a QO.

1. You need more than 5 starting pitchers. The sox have no minor league depth. 2. How is a rotation with two complete question marks at 4-5 a good thing? Kopech isn't gonna throw more innings than Carlos did this year and keuchel is absolutely terrible.

To those who think the sox could sign scherzer. Sox have 14 guys under contract. They're at 156 million. Let's say they swap kimbrel and eat zero money (seems unlikely but we'll assume) They're now at 140. Scherzer would out them around 175. We'll say 4 million (but may be more given the new cba) for the 5 young guys. 179, roster is at 19. They still need a 2nd baseman and at least 1 BP arm. 15 million combined would mean some bad guys there, but let's say 15. 194 Then they round out the last 4-5 guys on the roster with what? I'm assuming they role with vaughn/sheets in the of here too,

That the Sox are close to their ceiling and are hoping to free up some Kimbrel money to go dumpster diving to fill some holes. Still think Carlos had more trade value than Kimbrel but think you have to hold for a certain amount if time if a guy signs a QO so they couldn't trade him and free up money to spend on a 2b and of'er at the dollar store in time.

no room for a starter, that's why Carlos is gone. Keuchel and Kopech super duper reliable and great. The fact that this messaging/narrative is already being pushed by the organizational PR team isn't great news.

Yeah, sox have given a lot of 3 year deals over 100 million. That's right up their wheel house.

Yeah, which wouldn't be surprising and wouldn't be something the sox would offer imo.

He was unreal for the dodgers down the stretch but his last 240 innings have shown a sign of aging and some diminishing skills. Still very good but never know when that cliff comes.

He said he'd never play for Tony La Russa. He said he wouldn't play for Tony la russa for any amount of money lol

One thing I think goes unnoticed is if there is a salary floor, I think it really brings up the salaries of those mid-tier guys with high upsides.

See, I don't always disagree with James: I agree 100% with this. Syndergaard and Verlander were extended QO's and they have a ton of risk as well. I believe Ed Rod was extended a QO as well. That's how the big boys operate. Good teams don't let potentially good players walk for free. Edit: Disclaimer if Carlos has off-season surgery of some kind this would make a lot more sense.

So the Sox are going to give a 37/38 year old arm a multi-year deal worth more than 30 million a year. 2-3 years, 60-90 million? Uh, OK.

Rodon will be the youngest pitcher on the market of all FA's, and he has the 2nd highest projected fWAR. It's not everything, but it certainly means something.

The Sox don't sign pitchers to big money or long-term contracts. I've said this the past two off-seasons; I'm done giving this team the benefit of the doubt when it comes to signing big free agents. I also absolutely am not giving them the benefit of the doubt when it comes to scouting fringe/undervalued MLB players. It's not their area of strength. I'll also ask, who? Greinke was about as bad as Keuchel down the stretch. Verlander is 100 years old. Kershaw is as fragile as Carlos at this point. Scherzer the Sox are not going to sign. So Ray, Gausman, Stro. I like Ray and Gausman, and wouldn't hate on either one. I think Gausman gets a pretty long and nice deal - 4 years + for 110-125 million. I have my doubts the Sox would go there for a pitcher his age. Ray is erratic but I think he gets a pretty big deal as well. I don't trust the Sox to win a bidding war on either of those arms so who they left with?

It's just money. If he's bad, he's bad. If they were going to act like the big boys, and open up the book, I think retaining Rodon is a no brainer given the other question marks they have in the rotation.

I certainly do not trust this organization to sign a "value" arm to replace Rodon. Rodon proved his ceiling was high when he did pitch. He was a good depth arm piece for next year with little risk after next year. That's if he accepted the QO; who even knows what he'd do? I also don't think this is a good sign of a much-expanded budget. I don't think this team dishes out big money to sign anyone, so they're going to be relying on another unproven arm to fill his spot, while also relying on Keuchel, or they're going to sign a value arm who they've proven time and time again they're not very good at doing. I think the overall sign this paints is more troubling than the move; although I'd argue almost every QO is worth it.

The fact that the Sox wouldn't even risk Rodon accepting for 18 million, even though QO's are almost always worth extending given 1 year deals have less risk, it's absolutely hilarious anyone thinks they're going to go after Scherzer. I thought Kimbrel was supposed to signify this team was going to open the pocket books. Rodon was a no-brainer when it came to extending a QO. Worst case he signs on and he's a 5th-6th starter next season giving you 120-150 good innings. I'll argue all day that Rodon has more value than Kimbrel at this point in time too, and they cost nearly the same.

Cease wasn't perfect but he had a war of 4.4 in his second full season. Optioning him is one of the funnier things I've read.

Kimbrel had FIP's under 1.93 his first five years in the big leagues. Since then he's been good, but not that same dominant performer: 2.68 2.92 1.42 3.13 8.00 3.97 2.43 What is the one noticeable change during that stretch, walks and command. Since 2018, Kimbrel's pitches in thrown in the strike zone has plummeted - 44, 42.7, 47, 48 - his career average coming into 2018 was 52.7%. This has led to people making more contact in the zone against Kimbrel since 2018 in comparison to his career norms. This has also greatly impacted the strength and dominance of his fastball, which he has lost command with the most. Between 2010-2017, Kimbrel's fastball average roughly 10.35 runs above average per season, between 2018-2021 Kimbrel's fastball has averaged .75 runs above average per season. Kimbrel has shown a lot of signs of not being the arm he once was. I know you keep pointing to the two months of dominance, but let's not forget that Kimbrel could have been had for next to nothing last off-season as the Cubs would have loved to off load that contract. Has his value really changed all that much because of 30 innings despite the trends above? I have my doubts. Only time will tell. Kimbrel isn't as bad as he was with the Sox, but his time with the Sox epitomize what he's become. Just another volatile reliever who can have good and bad stretches. He can't be relied upon to be a dominating force (like a Hendriks) at the back end of a winning teams bullpen imo. Edit: and you know I'm not just piggybacking off this because of his poor time with the Sox. I was shouting about his deteriorating skills the day we acquired him. I've been watching this trend unfold for the past 4 years. I didn't buy into him having figured it all out again. I was never a believer in the new Kimbrel. His underlying concerns were still prevalent.

Yeah, I don't see any reasonable argument to make to be spending 30+ million dollars on two relievers, regardless of an approved budget hike. The Sox aren't suddenly going to be spending over luxury tax, so the cost of Kimbrel absolutely impedes them from making much more valuable and important moves for the success of the team in 2022. At best, you're likely looking at a 180-185 million dollar payroll and that's 17% of their budget spent on two relievers when they need a SP, a RF, a 2B and another bullpen arm even with Kimbrel.