Look at Ray Ray Run

Show me a single mega trade the sox have made in recent memory where they got completely fleeced. It's almost like fans cant seperate the teams inability to do well in other areas from their ability to do well in trades. There is nothing about hahns trade history that makes me concerned that hes going to give up the farm here.

Got it, misread it. That makes a lot more sense. Thanks for clarifying.

Difference is, when the Twins have called up guys from the minors to fill they have gotten OK production. The Sox get Dylan Cover - who I can't believe Fegan still believes in ha. I get how you could be enamored with his raw stuff - everything moves with velocity. It's very obvious that Covey has no idea what he's doing though and that's not changing.

I share your optimism that this team isn't as far away as many think, but there's no chance they open as the division favorite. If the Sox did the above, and the Twins/Indians did nothing else they would both still be favored over the Sox. The Twins will be favored over the Sox regardless of how they shore up their rotation. The Indians will be favored if they don't move Lindor/another piece. They practically played all last year without Kluber already. His move really doesn't impact 2020 for them much. Expecting an 18 win turnaround is just too much. I think it CAN happen, but I don't think we can expect it to happen enough to make them favorites.

Fair enough

So when a National writer tweets out a players market, that's not tying them together? Interesting take. So what classifies as tying a team and player together? I'll hang up and listen.

No, but you shouldn't make some negative blanket statement if you don't know the truth behind it. Now you're doubling down on your point, that was wrong in the first place. Sheesh.

1. I never said they would get Ryu. 2. You lied and said that they weren't even linked to Ryu; I merely pointed out that you were lying.

Ken Rosenthal literally linked the White Sox to Ryu last night.

Prospect rankings are about 1000% more efficient today than they were in 2000 as well.

Yeah, I don't think I'd go to the 4th year without some incentive in the 3rd year of actually being able to pitch. If Ryu dies in year 2, that would just hurt this teams window too much to hold him for two more dead years. Even if the buyout was 5-7 million that would be fine.

I'd go to a 4th year option that kicks in at some minimal 18 starts in the 3rd year.

Avi supposedly had 3 year offers out there but wanted to bet on himself after the new CBA.

You didnt cite 5.1. You cited 3.3. Why is it foolish to expect a player to improve though? A guy like giolito would be a prime example of a player who you could argue should grow. He had no mechanics last year and it was his first year of success. I'm not dismissing anything; I'm saying I dont use Steamer as my primary projection system for young players as I find it to be better at projecting established players than young/unproven player.

Player Projection models, by nature, error on the side of conservative. While you attempt to change the narrative, I am explaining to you that using STEAMER as the main projection model for Giolito is just disingenuous given the nature of what Steamer uses to make its projections. You can't cite Steamer consistently as you've done, and then just disregard that it projects Giolito to have a FIP a full run higher than this past year because it is weighting a Giolito from two years ago that is simply not the same guy.

Are you insinuating that it would/will be difficult for the White Sox to fine a replacement for Ivan Nova?

Sure, ZIPS projects Giolito to have a 4.2 WAR next year - if you think a reasonable O/U for Giolitos FIP is 4.33 I'll take the under (given that his ERA O/U will fall somewhere between 3.35-3.5) because there's no way the O/U on his FIP is anywhere near the 4.33 STEAMER is projecting. That's some regression. Also, I have no idea why you "expect" regression from anyone that is young and in his second year of a significant mechanical change. You shouldn't "expect" regression anymore than you should "expect" growth from a young player. You very clearly don't understand it since you're using a projection system that is weighing Giolito's 3 year history as some be-all-end-all when the two years prior to last year are very clearly career outliers for Giolito who ran into some issues.

Fair projections: Giolito 4.5 (this is light) Lopez 2.3 Cease (165ip) 2 Kopech 1.2 (100 IP) Nova replacement 2.0 Random 80IP starter replace .8 =12.8 That is a very reasonable projection and expectation and the numbers that I have for the Sox rotation as fo now - plugging in a league average starter for Nova.

Please stop citing a number you don't even understand as authoritative reasoning behind your point.

Correct; my bad.

Again, you're using STEAMER to project a young player with one year of success under his belt. Steamer greatly weights the past three years of results, and if you can't notice the change that Giolito made that made him a different pitcher, and you want to cite STEAMER and defer to something as an authority at least understand it. If you think every single White Sox starter is going to get worse - despite being young and developing - then sure, you go ahead and use your number. I always find it funny when people say people can't expected improvement from everyone all while citing regression from everyone.

No one should be using a STEAMER projection for Lucas Giolito. If you want to factor in his regression as being a concern, then use ZIPs number. If you think Steamer has a case for gio's regression, I'll take Gio under his 4.35 projected FIP for the max you're willing to take.

I have no idea how you figure this; I guess if you're assessing 3 starters and a BP vs 7 starters and a Bpen you get that outcome. The Sox are in a better position than they were entering last year for the sole reason that they added Cease and he replaced some complete garbage that was out there instead of him.

The White Sox were actually 9th in the AL in fWAR last year for pitching at 12.3. They needed to find about 6 WAR over last year to push this team into the top 6ish of the AL in pitching WAR.

Yeah, my issue is that they cant wait on everyone. Grandal wasnt enough. Even if Jimmy Lambert is the next Corey kluber!