Look at Ray Ray Run

They're catch probabilities - which is the driving force behind all of this - are still far from perfect. I'm not ready to anoint them better yet. They ignore far too many factors in calculating them.

This isnt some be all defensive metric - the others still matter. This is just another defensive metric where Castellanos is awful

People really misuse the shit out of market value on this site.

This isn't a "concern" though. This shows, and it's just one metric, the worst defender in MLB by quite a lot.

Interesting data; I am getting it all added to my data. Pretty excited to have new analysis added! That said, my biggest take away from this data is what in the fuck is going on with Vlad Jr? I had never read his defense was horrible - it was never advertised as great but it wasn't advertised as bad. I understand he can get better, but that number at 3rd base is just eye popping. He was -16 runs last year and the 2nd worst in all of baseball at 3rd was -7. We think we have Eloy problems... man, do the Jays have Vladdy problems. That is absolutely horrendous.

I did too, but Henry Schulman was pretty adamant they were involved and I trust his reporting most of the time. He now says they're done. I just don't know what market Nick has. Ozuna even less so.

There are a lot of shady agents in the sports world, but it's safe to say that Lozano is the biggest POS in the industry which is really saying something.

Given that his agent is Lazano, this feels like that scumbags bag of tricks. He lied about the peak offers (110 million), same as Machado, and now he's delaying because he doesn't have the offers I'm sure he has told his client will be out there.

The San Francisco Giants are no longer linked to Nick Castellanos and are reportedly done in the FA market. Rangers are out. Who the hell is still in on Castellanos?

I'll probably cite this 100 more times, but Gabe Kapler really explained this best. He spent his entire Philly tenure always making the statistically correct decision -disregarding the human aspect of the game. As Gabe said, the one thing I learned is that everytime I bring in someone new, i am replacing someone and telling them they're not good enough. This has an effect on a player that can be more harmful than the slight benefit of replacing him. Kapler is a former player who forgot about this because he became infatuated with the raw numbers. There is more that should be factored in than raw stats.

Gotcha, this makes more sense. I always thought theo was incredibly overrated after the last CBA change. He doesnt have an edge anywhere anymore. His offensive drafting has diminished without the ability to give huge money in late rounds... and he has never been capable of drafting and developing pitching going on 20+ years.

I think you put far too much value and important into a pinch hitter/bullpen usage. Even if you make the "wrong" decision it's only slightly less beneficial than the correct one. Based on that statistical element of it, the bad move works out better than the good one a large % of the time. I know people love to blame coaches a lot, and in other sports it means a little more, but at the professional baseball level a coaches game day decision making as such a negligible impact on the results of a game that you really shouldnt even care much at all. Ned Yost agrees with me.

His stuff is tantalizing and I get why the sox are infatuated - he throws hard with incredible movement on every pitch he throws.. His command is trash and he falls behind far too often for it to matter but their belief in harnessing it isnt absurd, it's just exhausting as a fan

Maddon is blah. Theres nothing telling me hes better strategically than anyone else. Maddon treats his players like kids - which is why he sours on players after a while. Petting zoo's at spring training? Theme trips every week? Its childish and not something I would have enjoyed as a player - I'm sure some do enjoy it though.

Managers. Mean. Nothing.

This is quite a rosey picture you paint of theo - something you wouldnt so for Hahn. 1. The cubs are not operating anywhere near under the same restrictions as hahn. 2. Theo was granted a top 3 payroll and misspent, terribly, his way to achieving that number. Theo's terrible free agent acquisitions are exactly why the cubs are in this position. 3. This is not the first time theo has failed miserably in FA setting a franchise back. 4. Hahn hasnt achieved anything yet - theo's history is much more impressive but history does not predict next year and by all accounts, the Cubs have fallen way back in the analytical and analysis pack. While the sox have grown exponentially in that world, the cubs have declined.

Nonsense. When you have a player like Bryant you should not be outspent to retain him.

Yup; routine benefits starters hell more than the increased inning work load hurts it. Starters arms dont get warm and cold frequently and starters dont need to push through fatigue and discomfort nearly as frequently as a reliever on b2b and 3 in 4 day type cycles. I certainly dont speak for every arm, but this is my understanding based on the pitchers I have played with and feedback from others.

Advanced numbers have always like Anderson, due to his remarkable range, more than traditional defensive metrics. His still needs to cut down on the errors but if he does he's in the 90th+ percentile. His talent is inarguable.

If his arm cant bounce back as a starter theres no guarantee it can bounce back as a reliever.

He did. He was 10th. No gleybar or Tatis. Olney was showing ta some love. Room for further growth and improvement/potential too.

I imagine major = player expected to contribute in a "starting player" type role.

1. Why would donaldson care about divisional pitching? Its likely his final deal. 2. Nats staff is getting old - Mets staff is good but losing Wheeler hurts. That said, the Indians staff isn't far behind (if at all) those teams, and the White Sox could be every bit as good as the Nats over the next 4 years (SP wise) and they should be better than the Phillies. Marlins are brutal as are the Royals. Detroit sucks - NL east doesnt have two bad teams atm. American league in general is, as always, the stronger and more difficult league to succeed in.

Probably AAA, with a few call ups throughout the year if Edwin, Jose, McCann or Grandal get hurt.

That would be a dreadful return for Collins. If you're not finding a team who trusts him as a catcher, might as well wait it out. Stock cant get much worse.