Look at Ray Ray Run

The way I read this off-season so far from the White Sox, and this could be wrong, is they were aggressive out of the gate and gave their near top offers for the guys they wanted. Wheeler got the offer, was happy because he wanted to sign early, but obviously wanted to shop around that offer. The Sox felt good that they were offering what he wanted, and thought he would decide quickly like Grandal. Wheeler wants to do his due diligence, and shop the offer around. Some teams are interested, but maybe not at the White Sox price. Other teams haven't bid as they're not sure they want to go there. Wheeler sets a deadline before the Winter Meetings, and we sit and wait to see if someone beat the Sox offer or if it holds up. This is pure speculation though.

Baseball is a copy cat game - starters never should have been pulled that early in games. Starters are better than relievers. KC succeeded with the Bpen piece and teams copied. This past post-season, the two teams in the World Series relied heavily on their starters going deep into games. Be a trend setter, not a follower. Following a trend means you'll likely be behind.

Huh? FG's said they were seeking short term, high AAV deals. Where have you read that the White Sox aren't in on Wheeler? That tweet that I am citing is one of the only places I have seen that they weren't in on Wheeler.

Tijuan Walker and Gausman would be interesting 2nd tier adds. I refuse to admit I was wrong about Gausman and I refuse to accept that he flat out sucks. I don't care how much evidence tells me I'm wrong. It's amazing how far he's fallen so quickly too - his stuff was always a lot of fun to watch. Maybe he could figure out how to be a reliever consistently. Walker is still only 27 years old and he's had some successes in his career. Injuries may have destroyed his career and he may never be the same again, but what's the harm in signing him and seeing what you can do?

From the Hamels "news" today, I take that to mean that Hamels is on the back burner and they want to nab their big target before even moving onto tier 2. Tier 2 may be contingent on what they get in Tier 1. That, to me, was the best news of the day because it showed that the Sox aren't focused on the Hamels of the class right now.

There is certainly arguments to be made that weight present value significantly more than future value for a team in a pennant chase; as I said though, no matter what your weights are, there's just no defending giving up 120 million in surplus value for 5 million. The Cubs could have gotten significantly more for Torres had they decided to move on from him - they could have gotten a package that could both help them now and in the future. They didn't do that. It's OK to like the outcome of a trade as a fan, but when evaluating a GM you shouldn't be evaluating him solely based on an outcome. The GM doesn't control outcomes as much as you'd like. Their job is to make fair value, or above value, trades and acquisitions. Anytime you give up significant surplus value in a deal, you've set the organization back.

I'll go ahead and say the 89 follower twitter account knows nothing; he's literally just regurgitating what FG's said they believed the White Sox would do.

Except wheeler wants to sign early and has made that clear while machado was willing to sit out. The padres got involved because it was a slow market.

Wheeler wanted to get this resolved before the winter meetings - this has been reported by a few - yet the Twins haven't even met with him or submitted a formal offer. Maybe the price was out of their range already.

I am not questioning your intelligence; I'm merely saying Theo isn't evaluating decisions based on emotions or SSS outcomes. Apologies if you took that differently. The lottery analogy is about as good as I can use there.

No, the point is to maximize your opportunities of winning a title. It's amazing how Andrew Friedman is widely regarded as the best GM in baseball yet he's never won. I wonder why Dombroski lost his job, again, while Friedman could sign blank checks anywhere he wanted to be Baseball President.

Yes, I'm sure Theo feels like he lost the deal because he's intelligent. Just because you won the lottery, it doesn't make it a smart investment.

He traded, basically, 120 million for 5 million. If you think that's a good deal, to each their own. People really shouldn't evaluate trades in baseball based on a series outcome. The point of a trade is to maximize your chances of winning by maximizing your value. Just as people want to argue they won with him, so we don't know what would happen without... I can argue the Cubs may have been even better the past three years and won a title in those years because of the value a player like Torres provided. The job of a GM is to maximize the playoff opportunities to increase the chances of winning - the playoffs are a lot of luck so getting there more often will lead to more titles. They won one, but their window closed. Had they not made the bad trades, they could still be within their window providing them with more chances of winning which could have led to more wins. In no way can you trade 120 million for 5 million and feel like you came out on top.

Theo got played because he gave up 20+ WAR for 1 WAR. Again, no matter how much weight you want to put into present value vs future value, it was a shit trade.

Yes, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman are the reason their teams made the World Series. Not the position players who played every inning, or the starters who threw significantly more innings. I wonder why relievers aren't the highest paid players in baseball as they lead their teams to World Series'.

How was the return for Miller equally valuable?

It's almost like trading a lot for a reliever at the break is a bad idea.

I would guess the 100 million dollar offer is from the White Sox, but who knows?

Plenty of relievers available at the deadline could have given up 5 runs in 13 innings. To say a reliever only had 2 "bad games" in a post-season is saying he didn't have a great post-season.

No one is giving up 7 years of a top 5 prospect for 26 innings from a RP - there's a reason the Cubs are the only ones who have paid such a steep price, and there's a reason it was considered a fleecing at the time.

No matter how many times people say this, it doesn't make it true. Yes, however could the Cubs have won a World Series without that 3.86 and 3.52 ERA in the NLCS and the WS. How could they ever replace such production? The guy gave up 5 runs in 13 innings. He wasn't some lights out, games over, closer piece in the post-season that everyone wants to pretend he was. The Cubs could have replaced his production with someone else and it wouldn't have cost a top 5 prospect in baseball for 3 months of a RP - for 26 innings. There's no excuse for trading 7 years of Torres for 26 innings from Chapman. No "present day vs future value" calculation would ever say that was a good idea - not matter how heavily you want to weight present value.

Went full blown tard there for a second. Thanks.

Arbitration is a really nasty process; no idea why MLB hasnt changed the way it works.

End of the window they better be flirting with 170-180+.

Three big decisions cost Theo. 1. Trading Eloy and Cease for Quintana. 2. Not trading Schwarber when his value was peak - instead convincing himself he could be a nice NL player. 3. Trading Torres for Chapman. If he didn't trade Eloy, moving Schwarber becomes easier. He could have gotten an arm for Schwarber. Not evaluating and moving on from Russell was also a mistake but a more difficult decision to make. Amazing to think that the one prospect theo didnt love and almost made expendable turned out to be his 2nd best player - Baez. Imagine Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Torres and Eloy. Jaysus.