South Side Hit Men

It’s possible Jerry does a complete tank job, and floats over multiple years below the amount they get for National TV + MLB.com, though this only occurred during three brief periods over Jerry’s 43 year tenure: Late 80s Move threat, Closing Comiskey Park Late 90s Post White Flag Trade Late 10s Publicly declared tanking I don’t believe they will publicly declare a new tanking era, or trade Robert to zero out MLB talent. I do believe they could flip the two you mention if there were takers and a reasonable return. I do think they add $10M-$20M net from now to Spring Training (net would include adding to offset a trade of Cease’s estimated $8.5M arb award). I do believe any trade involving Cease will include at least 1-2 players who will play for the Sox in 2024 (current MLB players or promotable mid 20s players), and that they will add at least 3-4 players I noted. Not stars or high priced, but credible MLB roster players which will improve depth.

The one area Martin and Stassi will help the entire staff (veteran and young pitchers) is improving the pitch / game calling, Many times it seemed they called the absolute worst pitches, either benefiting hitter preferences or not playing up to pitcher strengths or pitcher command at the time. There has been a big drop off from when McCann and McGuire were effective catchers in this area, They still need to bring in quality pitchers, with or without Cease, and that may be an issue this year, but this is an area that hopefully will improve in 2024 and beyond. Hopefully the two veterans will also help mentor their catching prospects working with the new catcher coach Drew Butera. Also, there is a contract option for 2025, but financial terms have still not been disclosed. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ If it's around his salary for last year ($4M) and it's a club option with no to minimal ($1M) buyout, so $4M-$5M total, I'm fine with it.

Adley gets a big WAR boost as a catcher. His first two seasons were his age 24 & 25 years, whereas Moncada was brought up here at age 22. Have to swap out Moncada’s Age 25 season for 26 due to the cancelled season, but they match up. Age 24 & 25 AR vs. Age 24 & 26 YM Rutschman 9.6 bWAR, 267 G, .808 OPS Moncada 9.2 bWAR, 276 G, .851 OPS

Minnesota played well last season, though expect a drop off with their payroll drop / SP losses. I think all five teams will be hard pressed playing over .500 outside the division. That said I’d bet the over on the Sox at this point, I think they will add more players (not stars but viable) to fill in some gaps. Current 2024 MLB Win Odds A. L. Central 85 Minnesota 78 Detroit 77 Cleveland 66 Kansas City 64 Chicago

I pin the Adam Eaton, Jake Lamb, Joe Kelly acquisitions on Tony La Russa, plus the Lance Lynn and Leury extensions. I give Tony credit for bringing in Liam Hendricks. Hahn didn’t have much say after TLR was hired, but proved demonstrably he could perform no aspect of his job well before 2020. I can’t blame Jerry for moving on, but do blame him for not handing the keys to someone living in the 21st century.

It’s a stop gap one year contract I’m fine with. Korey Lee is not and will not be a MLB catcher, not even a backup. Would like to see Carlos Perez get some more reps this year as he can actually hit MLB pitching. Its not like they are handing $72M to some DH / 1B type who couldn’t or wouldn’t perform any catcher related duties beyond framing. They also need relief pitchers, few of what they have are legitimate MLB quality, and most of those have injury issues (Santos and Crochet the primary two). Sign a decent starter or two, grab a few arms for the bullpen, a RF and legitimate backup OF and the Sox could surprise people in the 75 wins can clinch it AL Central.

Eight more players off the board. Still hoping the Sox can snag a SP or two (German / Wood) and a viable starting RF (Gallo / Lewis) and a backup OF who can cover RF and CF (Jonathan Davis). Projected 2024 1.0 + fWAR (RP 0.4 +) Free Agents Remaining Crowd Source Projected Contracts - If provided Catcher (1) 1.1 Gary Sanchez $5M First Baseman (1) 2.0 Rhys Hoskins $14M Second Baseman (1) 1.1 Adam Frazier $6M Third Baseman (2) 2.6 Matt Chapman $80M (4) 1.1 Gio Urshela Shortstop (2) 2.3 Amed Rosario $18M (2) 1.6 Tim Anderson $8M Left Fielder (1) 1.0 Tommy Pham $8M Centerfield (3) 2.4 Cody Bellinger $144M (6) 1.6 Harrison Bader $18M (2) 1.0 Michael A. Taylor $14M (2) Right Field (1) 1.4 Teoscar Hernandez $45M (3) Designated Hitter (3) 1.9 Jorge Soler $48M (3) 1.5 Joc Pederson $24M (2) 1.3 Michael Brantley $9M Starting Pitchers (17) 3.3 Blake Snell $125M (5) 3.2 Jordan Montgomery $105M (5) 2.6 Shota Imanaga 2.6 Marcus Stroman $66M (3) 2.3 Lucas Giolito $30M (2) 2.3 James Paxton $8M 2.0 Sean Manaea $24M (2) 1.9 Frankie Montas $8M 1.8 Hyun Jin Ryu $10M 1.8 Clayton Kershaw $21M 1.4 Mike Clevinger $24M (2) 1.2 Michael Lorenzen $20M (2) 1.2 Domingo German 1.1 Zach Greinke $7M 1.1 Carlos Carrasco 1.1 Jacob Junis 1.0 Alex Wood $7M Relief Pitchers (7) 1.0 Aroldris Chapman $8M 0.9 Josh Hader $72M (4) 0.7 Jordan Hicks $27M (3) 0.6 Robert Stephenson $10M (2) 0.5 Ryan Brasier 0.4 David Robertson $8M 0.4 Hector Neris $16M (2) Note: Bauer (1.9) and Urias (2.3) excluded from the above list. Signed 12/14 - 12/26: Position Players 1.8 Mitch Garver C $24M (2) Seattle 1.4 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF $42M Arizona 1.1 Kevin Kiermaier CF $10.5M Toronto Starting Pitchers 3.1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto $325M (12) Los Angeles N. L. 1.6 Michael Wacha $32M (2) Kansas City 1.5 Jack Flaherty $14M Detroit 1.0 Martin Perez $8M Pittsburgh Relief Pitchers 0.6 Yuki Matsui $28M (5) San Diego

In: Catcher (14) J. Bench, Y. Berra, R. Campanella, G. Carter, M. Cochrane, B. Dickey, B. Ewing, C. Fisk, J. Gibson, G. Hartnett, B. Mackey, J. Mauer, M. Piazza, I. Rodriguez First Base (22) C. Anson, J. Bagwell, D. Brouthers, M. Cabrera, R. Connor, J. Foxx, L. Gehrig, H. Greenberg, T. Helton, H. Killebrew, B. Leonard, W. McCovey, J. Mize, E. Murray, B. O'Neil, R. Palmeiro, G. Sisler, M. Suttles, B. Terry, F. Thomas, J. Thome, J. Votto Second Base (15) R. Alomar, C. Biggio, R. Cano, R. Carew, E. Collins, B. Doerr, N. Fox, F. Frisch, C. Gehringer, B. Grich, R. Hornsby, N. Lajoie, J. Robinson, R. Sandberg, L. Whitaker Third Base (17) H. R. Baker, A. Beltre, W. Boggs, G. Brett, J. Collins, R. Dandridge, J. Johnson, C. Jones, E. Martinez, E. Matthews, P. Molitor, G. Nettles, B. Robinson, S. Rolen, R. Santo, M. Schmidt, P. Traynor Shortstop (22) L. Aparicio, L. Appling, E. Banks, L. Boudreau, J. Cronin, B. Dahlen, G. Davis, M. Dighigo, J. Glasscock, H. Jennings, D. Jeter, B. Larkin, P. W. Reese, C. Ripken Jr., O. Smith, A. Trammell, A. Vaughn, H. Wagner, B. Wallace, W. Wells, G. Wright, R. Yount, Left Field (22) B. Bonds, J. Burkett, F. Clarke, E. Delahanty, G. Goslin, R. Henderson, M. Irvin, J. Kelley, R. Kiner, S. Magee, J. Medwick, M. Minoso, J. O'Rourke, T. Raines, J. Rice, P. Rose, A. Simmons, W. Stargell, Z. Wheat, B. Williams, T. Williams, C. Yastrzemski Center Field (20) R. Ashburn, C. Beltran, M. Carey, O. Charleston, T. Cobb, A. Dawson, J. DiMaggio, L. Doby, H. Duffy, K. Griffey Jr., B. Hamilton, A. Jones, K. Lofton, M. Mantle, W. Mays, K. Puckett, D. Snider, T. Speaker, T. Stearnes, M. Trout Right Field (20) H. Aaron, M. Betts, R. Clemente, S. Crawford, V. Guerrero, T. Gwynn, H. Heilmann, J. Jackson, R. Jackson, A. Kaline, W. Keeler, K. Kelly, S. Musial, M. Ott, F. Robinson, B. Ruth, I. Suzuki, L. Walker, P. Waner, D. Winfield Starting Pitcher (59) G. Alexander, B. Blyleven, R. Brown, J. Bunning, S. Carlton, J. Clarkson, R. Clemens, D. Dean, D. Drysdale, B. Feller, W. Ford, B. Foster, B. Gibson, T. Glavine, Z. Greinke, L. Grove, R. Halladay, C. Hubbell, C. Hunter, F. Jenkins, R. Johnson, W. Johnson, T. Keefe, C. Kershaw, S. Koufax, B. Lemon, T. Lyons, G. Maddux, J. Marichal, P. Martinez, C. Mathewson, M. Mussina, H. Newhouser, K. Nichols, P. Niekro, S. Paige, J. Palmer, H. Pennock, G. Perry, E. Plank, O. H. Radbourn, R. Roberts, B. Rogan, R. Ruffing, N. Ryan, C. C. Sabathia, M. Scherzer, C. Schilling, T. Seaver, H. Smith, J. Smoltz, W. Spahn, D. Sutton, D. Vance, J. Verlander, R. Waddell, E. Walsh, E. Wynn, C. Young, Relief Pitcher (5) D. Eckersley, G. Gossage, T. Hoffman, M. Rivera, H. Wilhelm Out: Catcher (6) R. Bresnahan, R. Ferrell, E. Lombardi, W. Robertson, L. Santop, R. Schalk, T. Simmons First Base (11) J. Beckley, J. Bottomley, O. Cepeda, F. Chance, G. Hodges, G. Kelly, F. McGriff, D. Ortiz, T. Perez, B. Taylor, J. Wilson Second Base (7) J. Evers, J. Gordon, B. Herman, T. Lazzeri, B. Mazeroski, B. McPhee, R. Schoendienst Third Base (4) G. Kell, F. Lindstrom, B. McKechnie, D. White Shortstop (6) D. Bancroft, T. Jackson, R. Maranville, P. Rizzuto, J. Sewell, J. Tinker Left Field (2) C. Hafey, H. Manusch Center Field (4) E. Averill, E. Combs, E. Roush, H. Wilson Right Field (12) H. Baines, K. Cuyler, E. Flick, H. Hooper, C. Klein, T. McCarthy, T. Oliva, E. Slaugher, S. Rice, B. Southworth, S. Thompson, R. Youngs Starting Pitcher (22) C. Bender, M. Brown, J. Chesbro, A. Cooper, S. Coveleski, C. Cummings, R. Feber, P. Galvin, L. Gomez, B. Grimes, J. Haines, W. Hoyt, A. Joss, J. Kaat, R. Marquard, J. McGinnity, J. Morris, A. Spalding, E. Rixey, A. Rusie, M. Welch, V. Willis Relief Pitcher (3) R. Fingers, L. Smith, B. Suter

I tend to be optimistic in my nature regarding Sox players and giving new blood a chance. I reached the end of my rope with Jerry Reinsdorf into the second decade (nuking Comiskey, nuking Himes, and nuking 1994 which was my final straw), and Rick Hahn in 2015, so I’m happy for this change. All I’m saying at this stage is in a few years hopefully we will see an improvement, perhaps substantial, in how the White Sox manage the baseball portion of their operations. We can all agree the hiring process was flawed, and there were likely external candidates better suited. That said, in terms of realistic candidates Jerry would hire who would actually accept under this salary, organization and budget, I’d say that field was likely limited. I do like Getz is bringing in external experienced personnel to fill key positions. The new FO appears to have a grasp on evaluating baseball talent and is cognizant of the need to create a cohesive roster and organizational philosophy. Hahn could not deliver for either of these tasks. Getz reportedly implemented defined written job requirements, written measurable goals and a common organizational shared purpose. This is a bare minimum for modern organizations, but a quantum leap in terms of how White Sox Baseball Operations has conducted business under Jerry.

Very good pitcher, intangibles better than overall career. Several other very good pitchers are above and below him in the Jaws rankings, few of which are in the HOF, non of which should be in. Sox HOF, Yes. BBHOF, No. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml

The broadcast revenue is reported separately, the S & P investment would be far less for both the Sox and Bulls investments, and when your equity is worth billions, you can easily leverage the equity for MLB internal investments or other acquisitions. The Sox have over $2B in untaxed capital gains. I enjoy a respectful discussion for those which may not agree with my assertions. I have a few questions for you I’d be curious if you can respond. 1. Why would MLB owners be reluctant to share actual audited figures with their partners if they don’t support their corporate owned media narrative that MLB is not a widely profitable enterprise? 2. Why do team acquisition costs vastly exceed inflation over time if these government granted monopoly enterprises were not earning a ROE exceeding most other businesses? 3. Name your financial reasons why small or mid sized market teams cannot compete, listing your assumed revenues and expenses, if you have numbers.

Hope all of you have a memorable week enjoying time with family and friends. Thank you SoxTalk Jason and team for keeping the conversation going. This is the first New Years since 2020 I’m optimistic the White Sox are on the road to measurable improvement as an organization, and have enjoyed the changes over the past four months.

Actually, Jerry’s stated goal to people throughout baseball over decades was to finish second, wave carrot to fans and having them always wanting more. This is good to hear. People shouldn’t jump to conclusions, and it will take a few years to evaluate what he has done to improve the organization. I’ve seen and heard positive things so far. It will be unfair after a poor initial season with limited talent and payroll to declare this a failure. Ironically the same people who largely supported Hahn’s inept moves have their knives out for Getz.

Billionaire propaganda is stronger than any roster built by the Cubs or Sox since the dead ball era. The lone team with open books, $99M latest reported year net profit. This before counting broadcast revenues, before counting untaxed capital gains. Just laid out the fact only two World Series winners payrolls exceeded $200M, one was in 2008, the other 2018. White Sox increased their value despite shitting on fans for 43 years by more than $2B in worth for Jerry and Jerry’s Kids and cronies. Cubs did by $4B just by not taking things to Jerry asshole level. Owners spend billions to buy teams with a Congressional guaranteed monopoly. In a majority of cases hundred of millions in confiscated taxpayer wealth. All 30 are able to receive massive amounts in profits just fielding 26 men in MLB laundry, gain literal billions in non taxed capital gains. But sure, they be broke, been broke since 1876.

Forbes publishes solid estimates of both annually. And before one clings to owners talking points and bedwetting about the Dodgers payroll, these estimates are by and large underestimate profits for most teams by excluding non club revenues such as real estate holdings beyond stadiums, MLB team owned RSN network revenue/income and other income streams not included in the Forbes numbers. Atlanta's books are open, the only team required to do so, and even with record team payroll and being net payors into revenue sharing, they are printing money hand over fist. They took in $476M in revenue in 2019, took in a quarter of a billion in Q3 2022, an took in $71M net operating income before OIBDA in their most recent filing (2022 in March 2023), which does not include the $28M additional net income related to their stadium adjacent real estate holdings handed to them by the county at their new stadium. They also benefit as all teams do by accelerated player contract depreciation which exceeds their actual contract cash payments for significant federal and local tax savings, not to mention the collective hundreds of millions in tax free public subsidies annually enjoyed by many teams across MLB, including zero property taxes due on their stadiums and offices. These subsidies would be worth many millions for each team if one could sell these handouts on the open market.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/white-sox/2023/12/23/24010963/white-sox-getz-have-more-work-to-do-before-spring-training-opens

I agree MLB would maximize Revenue by offering all games including local games, the latter via an additional surcharge for access which MLB would share with the local rights holders. They do by and large share revenue via the revenue sharing program enacted in 1995. The Orioles received $320M in revenue last year between common MLB revenue, significant revenue sharing proceeds, plus what they receive via their TV and Game Day sales, yet spent less than 1/5 of it on player payroll last season ($60M OD, with Flaherty the only legitimate trade deadline pickup). The three teams which significantly broached the 2023 "Luxury Tax" threshold failed to make the expanded playoffs. 2023 Luxury Tax last World Series win $101M New York Mets 1986 $40M San Diego Padres Never $32M New York Yankees 2009 $19M Los Angeles Dodgers 2020 * / 1988 $7M Philadelphia Phillies 2008 $6M Toronto Blue Jays 1993 $3M Atlanta 2021 $1M Texas Rangers 2023 Every single team with shared MLB revenue plus Revenue Sharing proceeds could meet every single World Series championship team payroll, with the possible exception of the 2018 Boston Red Sox, and still earn net profit, plus drastically increase revenue in future seasons based on their championship. Every. Single. Team. World Series Opening Day Payrolls 2000-2023 (The extent of Cot's Contracts' Data) $230Ms 2018 Boston Red Sox ($234M) $200Ms 2008 New York A. L. ($201M) $190Ms 2019 Washington Nationals ($197M) 2023 Texas Rangers ($196M) $170Ms 2016 Chicago Cubs ($172M) 2022 Houston Astros ($175M) $150Ms 2013 Boston Red Sox ($155M) $140Ms 2007 Boston Red Sox ($143M) 2014 San Francisco Giants ($149M) $130Ms 2012 San Francisco Giants ($131M) 2021 Atlanta N. L. ($131M) $120Ms 2004 Boston Red Sox ($127M) 2017 Houston Astros ($124M) $110Ms 2009 Philadelphia Phillies ($113M) 2015 Kansas City Royals ($113M) $100Ms 2000 New York A. L. ($108M) 2011 Saint Louis Cardinals ($109M) $90Ms 2012 San Francisco Giants ($96M) 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers ($95M) $80Ms 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks ($85M) 2006 Saint Louis Cardinals ($89M) $70Ms 2005 Chicago White Sox ($75M) $60Ms 2002 Los Angeles A. L. ($62M) $40Ms 2003 Miami Marlins ($45M)

I still never ventured down to the Craft Cave, because I typically go out pre or post, but my first Hop Butcher For The World Beer was in that Revolution corner beer spot that may be called something else. It was a Rye Black IPA and was excellent, and loved the White Sox theme with it. Not my photo but a cool one found on the interwebs. Getting back to the thread theme, this one out of Niles is also a solid option. Also not my photo.

Where TLR shops.

Yet the Dodgers only won over the 60 game season, because it limited their exposure to their seemingly annual high priced domestic violence suspensions and limited wear and tear on their pitching staff. With the same manager and top heavy payroll philosophy, I’ll be very surprised if they win more than one World Series under Ohtani’s contract, baring say more owner 102 game lockouts for pandemics, CBA negotiations, or some new concocted owner scam. It’s a Kleptocracy, not Capitalism. MLB Owners largely socialize their capital costs on taxpayers, and privatize the profits. These same owners are also not held to American anti-trust laws as all other businesses including the NFL and NBS are subject.

They said the same thing, if he is good he'll likely be flipped. They also said if you have two top pitchers, if the Sox legitimately tried this season the division is certainly winnable, though there are many holes to fill. Even considering a very modest $130M-$140M, if you add guys like Kyle Lewis in RF, say Giolito or Anderson return on a one year deal, you convert a couple lottery tickets (convert on Fedde, reunite Wood with the SF guys, add Kyle Lewis in RF, sign Jonathan Davis for adequate OF reserve coverage, pick up 3-5 minor league invite relievers and convert on 1-2, perhaps also one more starter. That is what I'd like to see, not settling on an unsatisfying Cease or Eloy trade to dump salary. Sure if you are blown away by a Cease offer or are given solid prospects for Eloy, then perhaps change course. But the bottom line is the Sox will need to vastly improve player development and scouting to have a future contending team. Whatever comes back in these prospect trades will not be anything they got in the Sale/Eaton/Quintana trades, which also ultimately got us nowhere since they lacked player development and scouting. They explained some of it in the podcast, but the brief explanation for it is BP has a narrower range for pitching WAR than the other systems, PECOTA projects sustained progress from his Korean performance, and Cease has been up and down and this is a middle of the road projection. To me the biggest head scratcher was Benintendi being within 0.3 of Robert, or quite frankly being over 1.0. I don't see Eloy that high either unless he's able to stay healthy and somehow play well RF. Moncada has upside and I think he'll be their second best position player with a solid chance at 2.5-3.0 fWAR. I've successfully used PECOTA in my Rotisserie teams over the years. Yes there are misses on individual players like every system, but I found over a broad range of players it was worth seeking out. My Dollar Store $120M-$125M Payroll plan linked below,

I would return if James Fegan returned to the White Sox beat. When I played Rotisserie, felt Eno Sarris was worth reading, and a couple others. Had Baseball Prospectus as well, dropped both.

Jim Margalus broke down a few of the “revamped” positions in this article covering early PECOTA: https://soxmachine.com/2023/12/previewing-white-sox-position-battles-with-early-pecota-projections/ PECOTA Projections (All 50% Percentile) 2024 Replacements C Stassi 1.4 & Lee -1.2 2B Lopez 0.3 SS DeJong 0.2 2024 Replaced players C Grandal 1.0 2B Andrus 0.8 SS Anderson 0.9 2024 Projected Staff 150 IP Fedde 2.0 87 IP Soroka 0.8 104 IP Toussaint 0.5 107 IP Kopech 0.2 77 IP Shuster -0.4 The go into additional players on the Sox Machine Podcast: PECOTA 50% Percentile Projections Position Players 3.3 Luis Robert Jr. (40th ranked MLB Position Player) 30 HR 87 RBI 2.7 Andrew Benintendi (65th) 11 HR 63 RBI 2.5 Eloy Jimenez (75th) 24 HR 79 RBI 1.7 Andrew Vaughn 22 HR 76 RBI .737 OPS 1.6 Yoan Moncada 17 HR 66 RBI .709 OPS Starting Pitchers 2.0 Erick Fedde 1.9 Dylan Cease 0.8 Mike Soroka 0.5 Touki Toussaint 0.2 Michael Kopech