South Side Hit Men

Per Spotrac it's $46M per year luxury tax implications over each of the next ten years. Guessing it's $24M per year over the ten deferred years if the first part is accurate. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/shohei-ohtani-24661/ I'm interested in learning the implications to the Dodgers Federal and State taxes in terms of accelerated player depreciation of the $700M. They will likely save nine figures just on tax implications. In terms of individual taxes, I believe Ohtani is stuck paying both the United States (37%) and California (13.3%) over the ten years of deferred payments, even if he moves back permanently to Japan in the Fall of 2033. At least he doesn't have to file US taxes after 2043 since he retained his Japanese citizenship and isn't a US citizen. If the Las Vegas Athletics signed him, he would save $93.1M in state income taxes over the life of the contract, even more if California continues to increase their highest personal rate which I can see happening at some point.

2024 MLB Paychecks: $5,500,000.00 Leury Garcia (DFA'd March 2023) $2,000,000.00 Shohei Ohtani $1,193,248.20 Bobby Bonilla (Retired 2001)

Sportstrac has $680M of the $700M deferred. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/shohei-ohtani-24661/ So does CBS Sports: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/shohei-ohtani-contract-deferrals-drop-annual-salary-to-2-million-on-massive-700-million-dodgers-deal/ This is going to make the two dozen or so owners who don't give a s%*# about competing even more to b**** about with the "Luxury Tax" avoidance. I love it, love the fact that they stuck this up Jerry's booty hole. They will need to hook an IV to Jerry to rehydrate him from all the crying he will do over this. Jerry has to pay Yoan $3.9M more this season than the Dodgers have to pay Ohtani total over the next ten seasons.

Unexpected: Robert stayed healthy and enjoyed a great CF season. The drastic drop-off to negative fWAR players at SS and LF were unexpected. Expected: People should have expected a drop-off between MVP 1B Jose and Vaughn still learning and growing. C, RF and 2B were annual glaring holes beyond Grandal raking the Summer of 2021 should have been expected. Would say these three unexpected factors (Burgers amazing hot stretch, 3B Yoan sucking, DH Eloy healthy and sucking) were individually unexpected, but as a whole the net production by the three pretty much fell into expectations (14th overall ranked DH, 14th overall ranked 3B).

Not saying they signed game changing players, but I would wager heavily the Sox will finish above their 2023 29th rank for position player fWAR, beyond say an Oakland like salary purge or Robert, Yoan, Benintendi and Eloy for whatever they can get to make the other team eat all the money. Also think their bench players will be stronger to help their overall fWAR production. Chicago White Sox 2023 fWAR ranking by position: 10th Center Field 4.5 - Expect sight regression here, or major if Robert losses significant time. 14th Third Base 2.4 - Expect a wash with a Yoan bounce back offsetting the good Burger did here. 14th Designated Hitter 1.8 This could drop between injuries or trading Eloy. Busted by Burger last year. 24th Shortstop 0.7 - Don't expect much change here beyond a Montgomery promotion. 25th First Base 0.3 - Vaughn can improve to a 1.0 + player. 27th Second Base 0.2 - Improving to 1.0 would be a big upgrade between prospects and Lopez 28th Left Field -0.3 Expect a 1-1.5 season for Benintendi, but may be overoptimistic 30th Catcher -0.8 Expect a big upgrade in terms of defense, framing and game prep for the staff. 30th Right Field -3.8 Just getting a Mazara 0 fWAR type guy who can field the position would be a big upgrade.

People cry the Dodgers and Yankees ruin baseball. People cried the past few seasons that the Mets and Padres were also ruining baseball. Never Padres World Series Championships. Played first games before the first moon walk. 1986 Last time the Mets won a World Series. Ronald Reagan is POTUS. 1988 Last Dodgers World Series Championship played at Dodgers Stadium. Ronald Regan still POTUS. 2009 Last time the Yankees won a World Series. Shohei Ohtani (15) was starting sophomore year in high school.

It hasn't been the amount of money Jerry allocated, but by and large the stupidity of how it was spent. If Jerry would just keep (Hemond/Dombrowski) or hire one smart guy (AA, Theo, others), give them a reasonable budget and stayed out of the way, the Sox could have been a juggernaut "world class" organization over the past four decades and a team we would be proud to support. Himes is the only one who built a sustainable core, but he had to ice out Jerry to do so, and he didn't get a second contract as a result. I actually agree with Jerry on the premise nine figure contracts (especially pitchers) typically do not end well. Sustained multiple championship windows are driven by developing and retaining a solid core. This is true in every sport. All teams have this ability if they have the right strategy and front office / organization. Sure richer teams can spend to make up for some mistakes along the way, but no team can create a core team via Free Agency beyond the NBA. Jerry always prioritizes hiring/retaining cronies over competency in terms of team management. Howard Pizer is excellent as Jerry's finance guy, Jerry is not going to leave managing finances to chance. This is why the Sox (and Bears and Bulls) need a change at the top. Their revenue and spending is good enough to regularly compete, but their C-Suite hires are bottom barrel, and always will be under Jerry and Michael. This is why new ownership is needed, not what Tex laid out.

Players service time over the season is 172 per year. (172 X 43 = 7,396) (411 / 7369 = 5.55%) You would have to back out the lockout / strike days (1981, 1994, 1995, 2020) that let’s face it Jerry has been largely responsible for to get the exact count, but under 6% is the answer even accounting for subtracting these days. If I’m ambitious I’ll calculate the Sox total against the other 30 teams (29 + Montreal).

White Sox fans have enjoyed this scenario for a total of 411 days under Jerry Reinsdorf. 1983 (54 days) 8/2; 8/11-10/2 1993 (23 days) 8/1; 8/30-9/8; 9/22-10/3 2000 (110 days) 6/14-10/1 2005 (113 days) 4/25; 5/12-5/15; 5/17-5/26; 5/31; 6/10; 6/12-6/13; 6/15-9/14; 10/1-10/2 2008 (6 days) 6/8-6/13 2016 (9 days) 5/7-5/15 2021 (96 days) 6/13; 7/1-10/3

Players could still be dumped or added, but in terms of current roster: Position Players: 12/10/23 > 2023 Roster Rotation: March - July 2023 > 12/10/23 > Aug-Oct 2023 Bullpen: March - July 2023 > 12/10/23 = Aug-Oct 2023 Hard to tell until their payroll is known, but if they keep Cease to start the year and can pan out one or two starter projects and two to three reliever projects, they have a good shot at 70-75 wins. Two other positives is Getz isn’t doing stupid s%*#, he brought in substantial outside help to assess and develop talent, and they got rid more bad apples (Boston and Clevinger) and poorly performing players.

They are finally going to put him in a nursing home after the inevitable Cey, Buckner, Garvey scoop.

Fresh off of his World Series performance. $5M / 1 year, plus potential incentives up to $1M. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/royals-to-sign-will-smith.html

If they trade Eloy, I see them starting Sheets in DH vs. RH. Was concerned by Getz' comment last week that Sheets would be acceptable in RF, which was the biggest glaring defensive hole requiring fixing this offseason. Obviously he has to support someone on his current roster until a replacement comes in. I hope Colas turns it around next season, and can be called up in May or June and be at least an adequate starter as expected. I don't want to see Sheets for even an inning in RF unless there is some type of catastrophic emergency in which multiple players are injured during a game and he is the last option beyond catchers and pitchers. https://sports.yahoo.com/chris-getz-considering-keeping-gavin-052516526.html

Dude, chill. This is a snapshot in time, there are still over three months until OD. I merely presented the current fangraph projections. The point of the exercise is the fact the Sox dumped the three negative fWAR players this offseason, will likely have year over year improvements by at least a few of their returnees. Not even Getz at this point knows who will play RF, Eloy may be traded, etc. Also to counteract the narrative that the Sox will have worse hitting in 2024. Rather discuss current roster status and projections and actual player acquisitions then the endless trade rumor, media, foodie account rumors, and the 100th Garfein podcast saying the Sox need leaders, culture, Whit Merrifield and Sal Perez.

Last I checked, the MLB Players Union didn't helicopter over $5 Trillion into the economy the past four years. M2

Yep. The Sox are projected to have a better lineup this season, would say Robert the only player to expect a minor regression. fWAR 2023 Actual vs. 2024 Projected (Top 9 Actual / Projected Playing Time) +0,7 Catcher: -0.1 Yasmani Grandal 118 G vs. 0.6 Max Stassi 70 G +1.5 First Baseman: 0.3 Andrew Vaughn 152 G vs, 1.8 Andrew Vaughn 147 G -0.5 Second Baseman: 1.1 Elvis Andrus 112 G vs. 0.6 Nicky Lopez 83 G +1.0 Third Baseman: 1.2 Yoan Moncada 92 G vs. 2.2 Yoan Moncada 144 G +0.9 Shortstop: -0.5 Tim Anderson 123 G vs. 0.4 Paul DeJong 68 G +1.4 Leftfielder: 0.0 Andrew Benintendi 151 G vs. 1.4 Andrew Benintendi 139 G -1.6 Centerfielder: 5.0 Luis Robert Junior 145 G vs. 3.4 Luis Robert Junior 149 G +1.6 Rightfielder: -1.4 Gavin Sheets 118 G vs. 0.2 Oscar Colas 97 G +1.8 Designated Hitter: 0.4 Eloy Jimenez 120 G vs. 2.2 Eloy Jimenez 141 G Projected improvement: +6.8 fWAR (6.0 2023 vs. 12.8 2024)

I’m good with this plan. Slash payroll 2024-2025, bring in MLB caliber defenders. Hire quality FO personnel who can draft, acquire and develop quality MLB players. Start fielding competitive White Sox teams in 2026. If they can bring in 1-2 additional SP projects and convert one in addition to another those acquired for Bummer, and perhaps 1-2 acceptable relievers (Shaw type guys) with possible upside, the Sox could have a 73-78 win season and they will be a much more enjoyable team to watch than the previous two seasons. The House That Hahn Built 99-63 2021 81-81 2022 78-84 2016 76-86 2015 73-89 2014 72-89 2019 67-95 2017 63-99 2013 62-100 2018 61-101 2023

Hope the Sox aren’t sending international slot money in return. 2020-2023 fWAR 4.7 Yasmani Grandal $73.0M 3.6 Max Stassi $12.4M 2.7 James McCann $33.9M

Additional advertising revenue isolated to Ohtani’s impact will pay for the majority of his deal. Factor in the time value of money and payment deferrals, and the Dodgers may be getting Ohtani for close to free. This is what the Jerry Reinsdorf’s of the world will never understand, and why the Dodgers are a top team despite not winning a 61 game plus regular season World Series since Kirk Gibson and Orel Hershiser wore Dodger Blue. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/shohei-ohtani-notes-advertising-revenue-40-man-roster-move.html Ohtani makes an additional $40M in endorsements annually. Trout is the next highest at $5M. Estimates are he will double the $25M the Angels earned on Ohtani related marketing revenue, not to mention vastly growing the untaxed value of the Dodgers franchise for years to come.

Seventeen of the thirty have expired. Largest MLB Free Agent Signings by Team: $700M Los Angeles Dodgers Shohei Ohtani (2024-2033) $400M New York Yankees Aaron Judge (2023-2031) $330M Philadelphia Phillies Bryce Harper (2019-2031) $325M Texas Rangers Corey Seager (2022-2031) $300M San Diego Padres Manny Machado (2019-2028) $245M Los Angeles Angels Anthony Rendon (2020-2026) $245M Washington Nationals Stephen Strasburg (2020-2026) $240M Seattle Mariners Robinson Cano (2014-2023) $217M Boston Red Sox David Price (2016-2022) $214M Detroit Tigers Prince Fielder (2014-2022) $207M Arizona Diamondbacks Zach Greinke (2016-2021) $200M Minnesota Twins Carlos Correa (2023-2028) $184M Chicago Cubs Jason Heyward (2016-2023) $182M Colorado Rockies Kris Bryant (2022-2028) $162M New York Mets Brandon Nimmo (2023-2030) $161M Baltimore Orioles Chris Davis (2016-2022) $130M San Francisco Giants Johnny Cueto (2016-2021) $125M Toronto Blue Jays George Springer (2021-2026) $120M Saint Louis Cardinals Matt Holliday (2010-2016) $106M Miami Marlins Jose Reyes (2012-2017) $100M Houston Astros Carlos Lee (2007-2012) $80M Milwaukee Brewers Lorenzo Cain (2018-2022) $75M Atlanta B. J. Upton (2013-2017) $75M Chicago White Sox Andrew Benintendi (2023-2027) $72M Kansas City Royals Alex Gordon (2016-2019) $64M Cincinnati Reds Nick Castellanos (2020-2023) $60M Cleveland Guardians Edwin Encarnacion (2017-2019) $40M Tampa Bay Rays Zach Eflin (2023-2025) $39M Pittsburgh Pirates Francisco Liriano (2015-2017) $30M Oakland Athletics Billy Butler (2015-2017)

Video from when Rick Hahn informed Jerry Reinsdorf of the Andrew Benintendi deal.

I agree there should be a floor (MLB shared revenue), but there is more parity today than there was back when Americans in general actually cared about the sport. Connie Mack’s Athletics we’re basically the Yankees feeder system. Yankees dominated MLB for decades. They haven’t won since George died. The Dodgers have had the top MLB payroll most seasons after McCourt was forced out by Bud Selig. They have won a single World Series, that during the sham 2020 60 game owner lockout year, over the decade plus. The disparity is primarily the fault of letting a half dozen owners maximize profit by fielding minor league guys wearing MLB laundry, and pocketing $50M + each season for merely existing.

I was hoping Cubs solely for the fact it would make Jerry seethe to the point of pushing him and his family out of 35th and Shields. I can always ignore garbage Cubs fans and garbage Chicago and National media. I believe all teams go through MLB.com international for game access. I wonder if the Dodgers could establish their own Japanese TV Network, or whether that would violate MLB bylaws. The Yankees and Red Sox owners don’t care about winning championships. John Henry tried to destroy the EPL and other European Leagues with his Super League garbage. He also tried changing the English relegation system. He is pure unadulterated evil and scum. George’s kids just want to profit, are being pushed by Cohen to spend and retain local market share. Angels feel compelled to try to retain relevance in Los Angeles. Jerry frankly doesn’t give a rats ass beyond his pettiness, arrogance and greed.

Peter Angelos is one of six current ownership groups with four or more Bottom Three Pay rolls. Good Riddance. The Shameful Six - Current Owners with Four + Bottom 3 MLB Payrolls: 13 Stuart Sternberg Tampa Bay Rays 6 Bob Nutting Pittsburgh Pirates 6 John FIsher Oakland Athletics 5 Jim Crane Houston Astros 4 Peter Angelos Baltimore Orioles 4 Jerry Reinsdorf Chicago White Sox Eleven MLB Teams which have not fielded a Bottom Three Payroll over the past 40 years (1984-2023): Atlanta MLB Team Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Saint Louis Cardinals San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays MLB Bottom Three Payroll Teams over the past 40 years (1984-2023): (1) Arizona Diamondbacks Jerry Colangelo 1998-2004 Ken Kendrick 2005-Current 2016 (6) Baltimore Orioles Edward Williams 1979-1988 Eli Jacobs 1989-1993 1990; 1991 Peter Angelos 1994-Current 2019; 2020; 2021; 2022 (4) Chicago White Sox Jerry Reinsdorf 1981-Current 1988; 1989; 1990; 2018 (7) Cleveland Guardians Estate of Steve O'Neill 1984-1986 1984; 1985; 1986 Richard Jacobs 1987-1999 1991; 1992; 1993 Larry Dolan 2000-Current 2021 (2) Colorado Rockies Jerry McMorris 1993-2004 1993 Charlie Monfort 2005-2010 2006 Dick Monfort 2011-Current (13) Florida / Miami Marlins Wayne Huizenga 1993-1998 1994; 1998 John Henry 1999-2001 1999; 2000 Jeffrey Loria 2002-2017 2006; 2007; 2008; 2009; 2013; 2014; 2015 Bruce Sherman 2018-Current 2019; 2020 (7) Houston Astros John McMullen 1979-1991 1991 Drayton McLane 1992-2011 1992 Jim Crane 2012-Current 2012; 2013; 2014; 2015; 2016 (4) Kansas City Royals Ewing Kauffman 1967-1993 Ewing Kauffman Estate 1994-2000 David Glass 2000-2019 2000; 2003; 2005; 2011 John Sherman 2020-Current (4) Milwaukee Brewers Bud Selig 1970-1998 1996 Wendy Selig-Prieb 1999-2004 2003; 2004 Mark Attanasio 2005-Current 2017 (5) Minnesota Twins Carl Pohlad 1984-2008 1984; 1995; 1999; 2000; 2001 Jim Pohlad 2009-Current (9) Montreal Expos Charles Bronfman 1969-1990 Claude Brochu 1991-1998 1992; 1994; 1995; 1996; 1997; 1998 Jeffery Loria 1999-2001 1999; 2001 Major League Baseball 2002-2004 2002 (1) New York Mets Doubleday & Company 1980-1985 Nelson Doubleday Jr. & Fred Wilpon 1986-2002 1995 Fred Wilpon 2003-2020 Steve Cohen 2021-Current (9) Oakland Athletics Walter Haas Junior 1981-1995 Stephen Schott & Ken Hofmann 1996-2004 1997; 2001; 2002 John Fisher 2005-Current 2008; 2010; 2012; 2018; 2022; 2023 (1) Philadelphia Phillies William Giles 1981-1997 1989 David Montgomery 1998-2014 John Middleton 2015-Current (12) Pittsburgh Pirates John Galbreath 1946-1985 Pittsburgh Associates 1986-1995 1987 Kevin McClatchy 1996-2006 1996; 1997; 1998; 2004; 2005 Bob Nutting 2007-Current 2009; 2010; 2020; 2021; 2022; 2023 (7) San Diego Padres Ray Kroc 1974-1983 Joan Kroc 1984-1990 Tom Wemer 1991-1994 1993; 1994 John Moores 1995-2012 2009; 2010; 2011; 2012 Ron Fowler 2013-2020 2017 Peter Seidler 2021-2023 (7) Seattle Mariners George Argyros 1981-1989 1984; 1985; 1986; 1987; 1988; 1989 Jeff Smulyan 1990-1992 1990 John Ellis 1993-2016 John Stanton 2017-Current (16) Tampa Bay Rays Vincent Naimoli 1998-2004 2002; 2003; 2004 Stuart Sternberg 2005-Current 2005; 2006; 2007; 2008; 2011; 2013; 2014; 2015; 2016; 2017; 2018; 2019; 2023 (4) Texas Rangers Eddie Chiles 1980-1988 1985; 1986; 1987; 1988 George Bush 1989-1994 Tom Schieffer 1995-1998 Tom Hicks 1999-2010 Ray C. Davis 2010-Current (1) Washington Nationals Major League Baseball 2005-2006 Ted Lerner 2007-2018 2007 Mark Lerner 2019-Current