FriendlyNorthsider

The White Sox offseason grade and Getz’s offseason grade are two different things. Once you consider the ownerships budget constraints I think it has been better than a C. Dominguez is a solid choice for a leverage reliever. Not all relievers want to go to a non-contending team. There’s always a chance you’ll have to move at the deadline which is a downside so you pretty much have to outbid everyone else. Domínguez is an interesting pitcher. A wild stat is that he tied for first in the MLB in wild pitches despite throwing 79+ less innings than the guys he tied with. He has pitched well in two World Series though and it’s hard to touch him let alone square up on him. If you’re going to take a chance on a guy why not a guy with serious upside. Murakami was just an A+ move any way you look at it. He has a TON of swing and miss in his game but even the projections that have him with a disgusting 37% K rate (Adam Dunn maxed out at 35.7%) still have him as an above average hitter (117 OPS+). The power is very real so it’s a hell of a lottery ticket if the swing and miss is just regular bad. The contract was solid. If things go well this year you have an opportunity to try and extend him. If he’s set on free agency, he’d be a great trade chip. Zero risk move and one of my favorite of any team this offseason. Hayes is a fine pickup. Nothing special, but this class didn’t have much to offer. Bader doesn’t move the needle for me Conforto would’ve been disgusting. Hayes is a solid weak side platoon player without a ton of upside for more, but it was a short and cheap deal so why not. The Robert deal was not my favorite, but not really for reasons under Getz’s control. I would’ve preferred eating money for an addition prospect or a higher tier one, but maybe that wasn’t even on the table. I also think there wasn’t much downside to seeing if Robert could pick up where he left off last year and put together a good start before you traded him. Ultimately it depends on how you feel about Acuna. If Getz loves Acuna then you don’t pass up the opportunity. Acuna has a realistic path to being a multi-win player. He’s fast, he’s got a glove, and he can swing hard. If the arm plays in center then he’ll be a plus out there. I don’t know if the power will ever develop but if he can ways to get on base (bunting against bad matchups could help) his offensive value will be fine. The Hicks trade I’m also fine with. I think the clear A offseason would’ve involved going above and beyond for Imai but it takes two to tango and who knows if that was possible. Hicks was another guy near the top of the wild pitch leaderboard. He has solid stuff and had good not great results in his first year starting. Last year was a disaster but that’s why you’re playing him 2 yrs/16M. Thats pretty much the going rate for a 5th starter/swingman at this point and Hicks has more upside than that. You also came out on seemingly the right end of the prospect swap as Sandlin seems to have some juice. The Anthony Kay move is fun. Kay has been starting in Japan the past two years and has already gotten the innings under his belt to give the Sox a full workload this year. He had a 1.74ERA which is great even by NPB standards where no one scores runs. The contract was cheap and even came with a club option for a third year which I love. I’m not sure he has star potential but his command is better and getting 150 solid innings from him doesn’t seem out of the question. Wade, Kelenic, and the other moves couldn’t interest me less. But I’d rather the young guys get the at bats anyway. We’ll see if Paez is able to stick with the team. Rule V has already been solid for the Sox so give it another shot I guess. Given the budget Getz had that’s not a C offseason. Kay and Hicks are cheap inning eaters with some upside. The Club option on Kay is very Hahn like and really gives that deal some major upside for helping the team once the core is ready. Murakami was an A+ move. I’m not in love with Acuna but I see the vision. Domínguez is a good upside pickup. If he gets his control to just sort of bad instead of 1st percentile you have a solid closer/trade piece. Im at about an A-/B+ for Getz and a B-/C+ for the Sox. My main critique of Getz is on the Robert deal but there is so much I don’t know that it’s hard to really ding him. Imai would’ve been a fun upside play if that was on the table and would have been worth missing out on Domínguez or Hayes. Seeing Getz with a budget would be fun because I think he’s a solid GM. The Sox as a whole get dinged because of Reinsdorf is cheap and doesn’t care about winning or the fans.

Don’t hate this move in the slightest. Would’ve hated it if Leasure was in the deal. stuff wise there is a good pitcher somewhere in there. He was +110 last year. Being in a spot where he can focus on process over results will help him. The Boston situation was toxic with the Devers connection. Not that they don’t have a great pitching program, he’s just relearning process since converting to being a reliever. The Sox can also decide to use an opener for him. Taylor does very well against lefties so that could be a good combination. It’s a way to let Taylor get a controlled ramp up in innings and allow Hicks to get better matchups and boost his confidence.

Very true. Eloy’s best years were during competitive baseball. There was a window to move him at the deadline in 2023 (had an 800+ OPS and a hot July). Ultimately a missed opportunity and the least excusable between him, TA and Abreu.

At the start of the teardown the following players were under control for the following returns or lack their of: Jose Abreu: MVPito was kept through the deadline. Ultimately the Sox kept a fan favorite and made the wise decision to let the Astros pay him. Excellent move Dylan Cease: Cease was under Arb control until this offseason where he was paid. Knowing now that Cease likely wasn’t going to extend and that he got the deal. He was traded with 2 years of cheap control after the 2023 season. Hindsight says his value would’ve been highest after his breakout 2022 campaign. The Sox dealt him for Iriarte, Wilson, Zavala, and Thorpe. Both Iriarte and Thorpe have had cups of coffee. I think Thorpe has the best chance of saving this deal. He had a nasty 2024 before TJ ended his 2025 season. Overall this was a missed opportunity for the Sox although there is hope yet. Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez: after a let down 2022 season, Giolito didn’t has as much value. I have no issue with the Sox running it back with him. At the 2023 deadline he was flipped to the Angels along with Reynaldo Lopez for Edgar Quiero and Ky Bush. Lopez eventually found success after leaving as a starter in free agency although he was hurt last year. Not sure about the long term viability of him as a starter but ultimate ly I’m not holding it against the Sox. This was a BRUTAL trade from the Angels perspective. They gave up on both for money issues and gave up a great catching prospect in Quero and a possible rotation depth piece in Bush. Bush is now 26 and hit a wall in AAA, but is still a legitimate prospect. It was a great trade at the time and aged well even with Lopez’s emergence. Tim Anderson: fell off a cliff by the time it was okay to give up on a guy that was a fan favorite. In another universe he doesn’t get punch by Jram and is still a star. yoan Moncada: Moncada was another guy with a big 2021 that fell off before it was time to get value for him. Not sure it wouldve been palatable to trade him after his 4 win 2021 season. Garrett Crochet: this is the most controversial IMO. Crochet was traded after proving himself as a starter in 2024. He had two years of control left when the Sox traded him for Teel, Montgomery, and Meidroth. At the time of the trade it was a strong return and all 3 had excellent first years with the Sox. Teel and Meidroth look like multi win big leaguers and Montgomery gives the Sox a high potential outfielder that fills a huge system need. The “controversy” is from the Red Sox side of the trade. They extended Crochet with a 6 year 170M that buys 4 years of free agency for 115M. At this point he’ll almost definitely opt out for the last 2. It was a risky extension at the time and it seems like the Sox didn’t want to give it, but now is one of the better deals in baseball. Crochet was a 6 WAR pitcher and Cy runner up that threw 200+ innings. Would have been a great extension to have made, but given the risk the return has made it palatable to very solid. The alternative is that he got hurt and you missed out on 3 cost controlled big leaguers 2 with legit star upside and another with a multi win floor. Lance Lynn: The Sox moved him in a contract year. He was another guy that fell off after 2021 not allowing the Sox to extract value. He went from Cy-3 to a high 3 ERA pitcher worth 0.7 war in 2022. That may have been the time to trade him as he had a disasterous 2023. He was still able to be moved with Joe Kelly for Nastrini (disappointment) and Leasure who is a solid back end bullpen piece. Given his value at the time it was a solid return but just tough to get so little for him. Robert: Fresh in the memory. We’ll see what value Acuna has. It seems like he has the inside track to the everyday CF role. Probably the most obvious case of holding someone too long as the Sox were clearly rebuilding during his breakout year. Still, it was understandable to keep a core piece. The cards just fell poorly. Vaughn and Madrigal: madrigal was flipped at the perfect time, Kimbrel just didn’t work out. Vaughn seems to be a missed development opportunity but I’m not going to fault the Sox for anything other than the outfield experiment. Gregory Santos: cost controlled stud reliever. He has been hit with injuries since he was traded so it’s hard to remember that he was a a big trade chip at the time. The return was Prelander Berroa and Zach Deloach. Berroa was the main return and even through he was hurt last year has shown upside as a reliever. Kimbrel and bummer: 2 relievers that appear to have yielded no usable return long term. Soroka still has upside but not for the Sox. Collins: a lot of promise but ultimately flipped for Reese McGuire. burger: top pick, hasn’t quite burned the Sox but Eder didn’t work out So in total you have: lynn, Robert, cease, crochet, bummer, santos, Kimbrel, Vaughn, giolito, and Lopez out and let Pito, Tim Anderson, and Moncada walk. Other losses include Kelly, Burger and Collins. in return: Teel, Acuna Montgomery, Meidroth, Berroa, Leasure, Nastrini, Iriarte, Thorpe, Quero, and Bush. Teel, Meidroth, Quero Acuna and Leasure are big league contributors. Montgomery is a high upside prospect. of the group of pitchers, Thorpe has the most upside and could be a contributor this year . Berroa has a very good shot at being a bullpen contributor. Nistrini, Bush, and Irarte have something to prove. The Sox added talent through the draft and Rule V which I consider to be part of the rebuild and not the teardown. The Crochet Return (+Quero) does a lot of heavy lifting. Thorpe picking up where he left off would be a huge help, because it would be rough to not get a single cost controlled above average starter for Crochet, Cease, Lynn and Giolito. If Hagen and Schultz work out it’ll be less of an issue it’s just expensive to get good innings in free agency.

They should be embarrassed that it took 2 weeks for anyone to realize the Sox signed Tyson Miller

Would be lower risk lower reward but should absolutely be done if there’s mutual interest. Gallen and his agent absolutely dropped the ball not taking the QO. 1 year 22M is better than anything he’s going to get with the offer attached.

Ahhhh that’s an extremely good point. Please disregarded my 1000 word post.

I really like this move. Much moreso if it’s part of a larger strategy to use short term spending to get guys that you can flip for prospects at the deadline. If the Sox are just going to spend a bit more to get back up to where they were pre-Robert trade I’m less enthused but like it. This should be prime spending season on guys with a slow market. I’m hoping Getz is on the phone with Gallen, Suarez, and Frambers agents. Gallen is a great candidate for this especially if the Orioles give Framber what he wants. The Sox need innings and Gallen needs to repair his value. The Sox can give him a high(er)AAV 2-3year deal with a club option for after this year. If hes good you have a moveable asset, if not you cut ties after this season. No contending teams (except maybe my cubs for some reason) want to gamble that Gallens drop off last year was an aberration. They can’t afford the tax commitment or to have a 4.83 ERA pitcher pitching for them all season. Right now he’s projected for 4 years 76M (19M AAV) If you sign him for 3 years 66M (22M AAV) with a 5M opt out after this year you gamble 27M on the chance that a 2 year/44M deal for Gallen is attractive and can net you prospects. If Gallens market is a little more competitive you can slightly front load it to make his 1st year guarantee 30M. If his best offer is 4/75, Gallen would be giving up a guaranteed 35M/3 years if the option was exercised. Hed be a free agent going into the new cap situation and would likely be able to make that money as a depth starter. If he hit, he’d get to go to free agency a year earlier. Gallen finished in the top 5 in the NL CY in 2022 and 2023. He had an ERA+ of 115 in 2024. He hasn’t had a huge Velo drop and is 30 years old. You need innings filled anyway so the actual risk is lowered. Peralta, Cabrera, and Gore are now off the market which should make this year a good year for sellers on SP at the deadline. To me it’s a no brainer but I’m sure Jerry feels differently. Now that the old core is gone the Sox won’t have much they can move at the deadline. If your contention window is still 3-4 years out you need to keep the system stocked for when it’s time to buy. The draft and IFA will help but you can only take so many slices out of that pie before it’s gone. Building through free agency is expensive and not realistic given the current environment where the Dodgers and Mets are willing to match anything. If you want to get potential impact players in trades you have to take risks and there is no better time for a risk than when you have nothing to lose.

It’s definitely an aggressive ranking. If you believe that the defense is elite (which usually translates through the levels), he has a high floor as a plus defensive SS. He threw 97 mph as a pitcher which should translate to a plus plus arm in the field. His hitting is pure projection at this point. If he develops to around average bat you’re looking at a 3-4 war player. I’m going to follow him closely this year because he has top 40 potential with a solid showing this year.

I would give Baldwin every opportunity to improve it before giving Kelenic another chance. Hes had 1500 big league appearances and still looks lost. He had Luisangel Acuna exit velo at this point with Javy Baez K rates. Since he was drafted Baldwin has been used in a super utility role. Ultimately that’s what makes him a really nice piece on the team, but he has never really had the opportunity to go into spring knowing where exactly he’s going to play. He has 2nd percentile range with 83rd percentile sprint speed. That’s someone that could really benefit from playing right everyday. His range should jump to at least average once he improves his lines and jumps on balls to right.

Not picking up Robert’s contract would’ve been malpractice. Next years outfield class is awful so that club option is pretty valuable as a flier. The worst case scenario is you spend 22M on a flier of a 28 year old that is 2 years removed from a 5+ war season. As disappointing as he was last year he had an 800 ops in the second half with 11 steals with positive defensive value at center. The upside was way too high to not pick it up. He has the same bat speed and exit velo he did in 2023. He’s not a lost cause. The real question is whether or not this was the right return. Middle Infield/Third is not a team need in the present or the future. You already have Bonemer, roch (probably) Montgomery, Meidroth, Carlson, and Vargas. Thats your top prospect, your first overall pick, your best young player, a key piece that you acquired for your franchise starter, your most recent first rounder and the headliner of the Kopech trade. Acuna could probably play center effectively. Hes played 37 games there in the majors and Minor but his range should play. Whether he has the arm im not entirely sure but I think he could be good. A realistic but optimistic viewpoint of him is as a 8-9 hitter that can steal you some bags and hit 5-10 homers while playing above average defense. I think his ceiling is higher as a middle infielder because I think there is a much better chance of getting him to be an elite defender there. I have no doubt this was the best offer at the moment, but also realize that there are way fewer buyers now than in June. Bellinger was still on the market and cap conscious teams aren’t as willing to make the bet on Robert now as they would be when his hit is 8-10M in July and he comes with the club option sweetener. Getting a power hitting prospect, true CF propsect or starter would add a lot more value IMO. If Robert flops you eat rhe money and lose out on acuna. N the downside for a rebuilding team with very little on the books is low

Acuna was a guy that made a ton of sense in the trade. No options, no place to play in NY. Has the prospect pedigree and is smacking the ball in winter league. He’s shown flashes of some hitting ability and is a great glove. Middle infield is crowded long term with Roch likely coming in, Carlson, and Bonemer. There are 2026 ABs to be had at second so I’m all for it. If he’s good, you have some guys you can trade. The part I don’t like is the Harvard pitcher with a 4.8 ERA coming back and the Mets picking up the tab. Considering the tax situation they’re in I have a hard time thinking they wouldn’t have been amenable to a prospect buy with some of Roberts money. If paying 5 of the 20 Million saved the Mets 10M you’d think you could’ve gotten some other prospects back. Even if the Mets didn’t want to move any of the 50 grade guys they have a solid system with interesting guys to poach.

If it was they certainly need an editor. Most of this really needs to be looked at in film because of the small sample size. Good advanced scouting will help fine tune the approach to each pitcher. What would be malpractice would be to have him passive to build a pitch count or see a pitcher. If the plate discipline issues become a thing then maybe you tone him down a bit on first strike, but a guy that misses 20% more than league average when he chases cannot give away free strikes. If I can find the time I’ll try and watch some his ABs to check it out.

Im not a betting man but if I were I would smash the over of 2.6 WAR for Colson Montgomery. I am higher on him than any player in the Sox org and even after last years power tear for the big club I think he’s being criminally slept on. The main concern for Colson is the K-Rate. His K rate in AAA last year was 33% which is a bright red flag but in 284 big league plate appearances he got it down to 29.2%. Certainly not great, in fact it would’ve placed him as having the 8th worst K rate in the league had he qualified. His 8.8% walk rate was around league average and was actually far lower than what he was able to do through most of his time in the minors. What I find particularly promising is that even with that K and BB profile as it is, he’s in the same range as guys like Eugenio Suarez, Riley Greene, Jazz Chisholm, and Byron Buxton who are 120+ RC+ guys. Those four guys share a key set of traits with Colson that allows them to succeed with those low rates. The swing hard and they barrel the ball at elite rates and when they’re squaring up the tend to be very strong pull hitters. That is a recipe for damage. Those guys are 3-5 war players and are established veterans who generally don’t provide the defensive value Colson provides. Assuming that Colson takes a big leap in BB and K rate is a bit optimistic. In fact, I think 27-29% is K rate is probably around where he’ll be most years. I think the walk rate has a much better shot of shooting up to 12% or so as he’s has shown better plate discipline in the minors and teams are going to have to respect the power a bit more. If he settles in with a 12% BB rate and 27% walk rate with how hard he swings and how much he finds the barrel you are looking at a perennial all star with upside for more. One of the things I mentioned about him last year was his off the charts infield fly rate in the minors. I’m not sure if the minor league clubs measured it wrong but that went right back down to where you would hope it would be. He went from twice league average!! in the minors to perfectly average. The next step in his career is the biggest and it has to do with plate recognition and getting ahead in counts. He hit fastballs well overall last year with a SLG of .514. His xSLG was only .390 but his whiff rate was 25.1% which was much better than what we saw elsewhere. When it came to sliders he was essentially Javy Baez. He had a .933 SLG in 33 PAs with a 47% whiff rate and 57% hard hit rate. It’s really hard to find a player as all or nothing on a pitch as him. With two strikes it wasn’t the slider that really burned him it was the change up. He had a 44% whiff rate and 36% put away rate on Change ups without nearly the same amount of changeups as sliders. He had a lot of trouble with curves and sweepers as well. When you look under the hood you see it’s not his chase % that gets him in trouble as he’s about league average. It’s that his chase contact rate is 40.7% compared to a league average of 58%. On pitches in the zone his contact rate is just about league average. What that tells me is he doesn’t have a huge discipline problem or a huge contact problem. It’s that when he chases an off speed pitch he isn’t close. That tells me it’s more of a pitch recognition problem as opposed to being a hole in his swing. For a young guy that came straight out of high school and ascended fast, I don’t think it’s too wild of an assumption to say he can improve in pitch recognition. Even if he chases, he should be in the same zip code and he’ll likely bite a lot less if he sees the ball better. How badly did this hurt him last year? With 2 strikes he was 15/131 (.115) with a .465 OPS and 83ks. When he was ahead in the count he had a 1.083 OPS. You’d expect big splits like this but ideally you get him ahead a bit more often. It goes a bit deeper than that. There is a .260 point OPS difference for Colson from being up 1-0 vs down 0-1. After 0-1 had a 40.6% k rate. After 1-0 his K rate was only 22.8%. Colson fell 0-1 in 145 PAs and got ahead in 105. You’d like to see that number improve. When he made contact on the first pitch (which he did 34 times) in 109 PAs where he swung first pitch he had .559 SLG on a .212 Babip for a guy who’s overall BABIP is .262. You’d like to hope when that sample gets bigger that’ll creep up. I’d have to look deeper into what exactly he was swinging at first pitch. Colson is going to have to establish himself as a guy that’ll cause damage on first pitch strikes. If a pitcher knows that he is going to be aggressive first pitch, they’re going to try and get him to chase. Sometimes they’ll hang one and he’ll get him, sometimes it’ll be far enough that he’ll be able to take it for a ball. What he can’t do is take first pitch strikes. Thats .260 OPS points without getting a shot at it. If his problem was his chase rate I wouldn’t recommend him be that much more aggressive but he’s shown that he has a decent eye. Eventually when pitchers realize that his going to be aggressive first pitch they’re going to give him less to work with. I trust his eye to be able to lay off pitches that are clear misses. Long term I think that’ll get him to more 1-0 counts where we see the best version of Colson. The main thing about Colson that is constant is that he swings incredibly hard and barrels the ball incredibly well and pulls those balls at an incredible rate. That is a recipe for a monster home run hitter. The main hole in his game is that when he chases a pitch you get nothing from him. The fact that he has a decent eye makes optimistic that he can mitigate a lot of that damage with better pitch recognition and by changing the dynamics of his at bats by making himself dangerous on 0-0 counts. Colson actually saw a slightly above average amount of strikes last year. Hell probably see less this year and if his chase rate goes up a bit we’re going to see a regression. If he maintains his chase rate well see more walks and more hitters counts. Ultimately if he isn’t chasing at a high rate and he’s not being passive they have to attack at some point. Last year he had a first pitch strike rate of 63%. That’s a number I’ll watch closely next year as that is above average and something that if he can improve makes him that much closer to the Colson with a .260 point higher OPS

What's particularly wild about this is that he hasn't been particularly lucky either. Most of his hits have xBAs of .700+ with EVs 98+ and his outs have been largely loud outs with multiple outs having an xBA of .400 or higher. I don't think he's fixed or anything, it's just crazy that he's been unlucky during this run.

The Carlson pick is a huge risk for a team that has had issues developing hitters but absolutely something that needs to be part of the new look Sox. Getting hitters with a low defensive ceiling and “near-MLB ready” bats just hasn’t worked. The superstar ceiling is easy to see. Absolute stud on defense. Elite arm, great movement and fluidity. I’ll be curious to see what they do to his swing. This guy has a good breakdown. The leg kick and bat wrap are going to be on the chopping block if he starts out struggling, but I don’t think I would touch it. Everything gets to the right place. His hands are so quick and smooth to the ball. Once he adds a little more to his legs and butt the power is going to be there. The adjustments he made to his swing already are night and day. He’s more efficient and the launch angle is there. Whether he can maintain that contact balance when guys are throwing high 90s with elite breaking stuff is TBD, but he has already shown his coachability and I think elite athleticism is a great indicator he’ll be okay. When I watch him vs Ethan Holliday I might like Carlson more. If he wasn’t 19 i think he could’ve went 1-1. For the Sox to be screwed by the new draft rules and still manage to get the guy that might be the best prep SS in the country is a huge break.

I can’t find any other than those listed in articles showing pretty elite Max EV. My criticism going into the year was that he swings too hard. He needs to let his lower half and wrists do the work for him. Barreling and Launch Angle will carry him. in typical FriendlyNorthsider fashion, he’s 1/21 with 1 bb 1 single and 9SO since this post.

Wolkow was always considered a project when the White Sox drafted him in the 7th in 2023 as a 17.5 year old. Hes still only 19.5 and I think all things considered he would be a top 40 pick in this years draft if he was eligible. I did a little write up earlier in the year expressing my optimism on him and the early returns are strong. When I was watching him, I saw a flawed player in the frame of a big league star. His legs are massive and he is incredibly athletic for a guy that is 6’7 240. He looks like Colston Loveland in a baseball uniform. What I didn’t like wasn’t just his swing and miss but also the pitches he was watching. He seemed to have issues with pitch recognition and at times looked overmatched. The goal for this year was to graduate A ball and to start 2026 in High A. To get a feel for how young he is, he has just 7Abs out of 250 against pitchers younger than him (6 ended in a hit). The season started off horribly. Wolkow was 9/68 (.132) in April with 1 homer and 23 strikeouts to 8 walks. It was certainly not a cause for panic as this guy is still young for the league and guys of his size tend to develop a bit slower. His .426 OPS left little room for optimism however. May was a slight improvement. He slashed .218/.297/.368 (.665 OPS) which was far more palatable, but his 30 strikeouts to 9 walks mirrored his poor performance in April’s. June has been another story. Wolkow is 19/56 (.339) with 4 homers and 14 strikeouts to 9 walks and has a 1.001 OPS. We’re seeing the K numbers get to where they need to be while the power and walks go up. He had a 123 wRC+ last year in A ball in 320 PAs so it’s hard to look at his 95 wRC+ in 250 PAs as a positive development. His .406 BABIP last year wasn’t going to be sustainable and quite frankly his 40.6% K-rate last year put a big damper on those numbers. The K rate is down to 26.8% this year and is 20.8% this month while having his best power month (.554 SLG) and walk rate (13.4%). Even in his excellent July last year, had a .553 SLG, 37.3% K Rate and 14.2% walk rate. Getting all 3 of those metrics in the right place was the goal this year, because success at the next level can’t rely on a .400+ BABIP. This month was his best as a pro outside of rookie ball and shows the bones of a great prospect on the cost of a lottery ticket. This is the exact player the Sox have been wanting to develop for years and I will be watching him as closely as any prospect in the system the rest of the year. You just don’t see 6’7 240 lefties come around often. I would have more concern about his pitch recognition if he was a 4 year SEC hitter that played high level high school ball in Florida or California. When Aaron Judge was his age he was a freshman in college with 2 homers in 187 ABs using a metal bat (.902 OPS) but still. This will take a lot of time and a lot of reps, but this month was a huge step in the right direction. The next challenge for him is lefties. Hes 9/44 (.205/.327.227) this year with 0 hrs and 19ks to 6 walks. In 2024 he was also 9/44 with 0 homers and in 2023 in rookie ball he was 1/10 with 0 homers. Thats starting to be a concerning sample. I think the Sox should do whatever they can during this season and off season to help him see more pitches against lefties. Simulated games, whatever you need to do. There are worse things than being a strong side platoon player, but he’s a guy that has time on his side to develop. Don’t platoon him until the bigs. Let the kid develop his approach and get reps.

There was so much to work with and still is to an extent. He's a 23 year old left side of the infield player who's max EV is higher than anything Freddie Freeman hit in his whole career. He used to have elite plate discipline, he's just been stuck in a huge funk for a while. Way to early to give up on a guy like this. He's younger than a lot of the guys that got drafted last year, I went through some of his games one by one and there are a hell of lot of popups. This shouldve been one of his primary focuses this offseason. Whether he needs to try a torpedo bat, adjust what pitches he swings at, adjusts where he stands in the box, his hand placement, his swing path, I really dont know. I havent seen anybody mention it anywhere and who knows if it was even put on his radar. Guys can still be great hitters that have a high pop rate, Cal Raleigh is having one of the best seasons in baseball and has the 4th worst in the league (14%). PCAs is above 12 percent. Colson's profile would also be similar in that he has a high launch angle (21%). Montgomery's hard hit percentage has gone up from 34% to 40$ this year which puts him in the same tier as PCA (42%). This is of course against AAA pitching but PCA wasn't that much higher in AAA. The high launch angle thing can work. But what does it actually look like when you take out the pop ups.

One thing I mentioned in an earlier post is Montgomery’s abnormally high infield Fly Ball percentage going into the year. Last year it was 26.7 which is very very poor. This year it’s 35.6%. Not sure what the breakdown was since before his swing change but we need to see that number drop back into the atmosphere. The highest in the MLB is Matt Chapman at 16.5%. This is just beyond bad. that said, there have been positive developments this year. His EV has gone up from 85.8 to 89.6. His max EV went from 113.8 to 115.3. The EV goes from unimpressive to right around league average. He’s in a tier with Miguel Vargas and PCA who have shown that they can be impact bats at the MLB Level. That EV is being heavily weighed down by pop ups too. The Max EV went from exceptional to borderline elite. 115.3 is almost 5 points ahead of PCA and over 5 points ahead of Vargas. He’s still young, still getting stronger, and still improving. Hes made noticeable changes and should be able to sustain this growth. He has the potential to be more than just a bat. Hes shown great plate discipline in the past but it has disappeared in the upper levels. The K% has skyrocketed and the BB% has plummeted. Since coming back from his break his BB% has gone up to 10.5% and his K% 23.7. Before the break, the BB% was 6.8% and the K% was 41.7%. His post break numbers would be very solid for a guy with his power profile. if over the next month he gets the K% under 20, keeps the BB% above 10 and gets the infield Flys somewhat under control I think he’s ready for big league pitching.

To somewhat support that, Colson's wRC+ (which is related to his competition) was 88 last year. It'll be interesting to see which version of Montgomery we see this year. The plus of last year plus fall is that the plate discipline is there and the power has been developing. The downside last year was obviously contact and strikeouts. What was interesting is that his called strike percentage actually went down from 2023 from 18% to 15%. His swing and miss % went up about four points however. That put him from a pretty elite tier for a guy with pop to 44th in the International league. His swing profile went from very good to slightly above average. His pitch selection and contact levels are very similar across the board to what Ian Happ did in the MLB last season. For what its worth, Happs swing and miss has actually improved from his AAA stint and throughout his years in the MLB. Happ and Montgomery have pretty similar exit velocities and LD/GB/FB percentages. Colson had a slight LD% advantage, but had a ridiculously high 26.7% Infield Flyball rate. The infield fly rate stat is really interesting as a side note. 26.7% is INSANELY high. The average in the bigs is around 7% and the highest last year was 20.7%. In 2023 Colson was at around 18 % which still poor. If people write off Colson's .281 BABIP as just unlucky, I think they'd be mistaken. Guys with high IFFB rates like Edwin Encarnacion (14.5%) tend to have really low BABIPS. Usually, guys with more IFFBs have a high fly ball rate but that's not the case with Colson. He hits plenty of line drives and grounder so I don't really think it's a launch angle issue. Most infield fly balls happen on high and inside pitches (mostly cutters and four seams). I don't have his heat map, so Im not positive that location is the issue but I think its something to look into. The Sox need to find what the issue is before opposing scouts do otherwise he is going to have even more trouble. The good thing is that I think if they can figure out what the issue is, there is a ton of room for growth. Isaac Paredes who lead the league last year was also dreadful at this in the minors (mid 20s to low 30s). He never really figured it out. I cant really find many examples of guys turning their IFFB around drastically but thats mainly out of laziness. If I were his hitting coach I would clip together every IFFB to see what his issue is. Does he need to lay off some inside pitches? Adjust himself in the batters box? Shorten up the swing? I really don't know what the fix is if there is one. Guys with high IFFB rates can still be great hitters, but mainly they need to be power guys to be stars. Their BABIPs live in the mid to upper .200s. Corbin Carroll went from 11.7% in 2023 to 20.2% in 2024 and his BABIP cratered. If he can get the rate down to the bad range (15-16%) you are looking at a really solid hitter. I'll be really interested to follow this over the year

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chase-meidroth/sa3020011/stats?position=2B/3B/SS Those three year projections would indicate he's the second baseman of the future. The only reason he shouldnt be the starting second baseman is if they think he can be the starting shortstop. His hit tool will get him Madrigal comparisons but he should be a little better around the edges as he doesnt have Madrigals dead arm and a complete lack of power. Most importantly, his elite contact levels arent a result of making contact at a pitch outside of the zone every 0-0 or 0-1 count. He can actually take walks and Fangraphs projects him as a guy that'll be around a .360 OBP in the bigs, If the power or speed is better than expected, he'll be a guy.

A couple moves I’d like to see: sign Michael Lorenzen as a 2-way: not sure this will work man this would be fun. The NYT just dropped an article about this, and I would love the upside for the Sox. If you offer the ABs maybe you can get a team option for the second year. Worst case if hitting doesn’t work out he’s probably the best pitcher on the staff. sign Ha-Seong Kim to a 1 year deal. If Kim doesn’t get the multi year deal he’s looking for, the Sox would be a great fit for a one year prove-it, recovery deal. The Sox medical staff might not be the idea fit, but most contenders would rather not pay Kim to rehab for the first few months of the year. Worst case, the Sox spend 12M on a guy who never ends up getting it together this year. Best case, he returns to normal and you have a huge trade chip in July. You’d be paying 6M for a chance to get some very good prospects. The guy was worth 10.7 WAR in 2022-23.

I think the Sox will be at least a top 3 farm by summer 2026 depending on graduations. On top of this group, they’ll get a haul for Robert. Personally I’d prefer they get young MLB guys like a package of CES, Noelvi Marte plus from the Reds, but regardless it’ll be a haul. theyll get a nice player at 10 this year and at least a top 4 pick in 2026 which seems to be stacked with elite prep bats. The big factor this year will be the emergence of Colson, the turnaround of Jacob Gonzalez, and an explosion from Wolkow. I really believe in Wolkow. The swing and miss is a monster concern obviously. 158 strikeouts in 337 bats is bad. But he’s turning 19 in January and was a super raw player out of Downers grove. He’s learning on the fly and shows flashes of dominance. when Judge was 18, he was still playing high school ball. At 19 he had 2 homers and 42ks in 187Abs in the WAC. Another 6’7 stud James Wood had 124ks in 323 ABs in AA at 20. He struck out only 42 times in 190 AAA ABs the next year. Spencer Jones (6’6) struck out 200 times in AA in his age 23 season in 482 ABs. My point isn’t that he’ll be like those guys. Mainly, that the Ks are going to be a thing and that he will probably never lose the swing and miss in his game. Plate Discipline and pitch recognition can develop. He led Kanny in Homers at 18 years old when I watch him hit a few things stick out to me. 1.) his pitch recognition isn’t there yet. He watches a lot of good knee high fastballs and looks fooled on breaking stuff. It’s not that he’s chasing stuff, he just doesn’t look like he has a plan at the plate sometimes. If he was 23 with 3 years of college and 2 of pro ball I’d be worried. But we’re a long way from that. I2.) he is swinging too hard. His head goes flying. The bat speed and exit velos are probably great, but he’s swinging like he isn’t built like a tank. 3.) the swing is beautiful. Yeah it’s too hard, but watch the cut at 3:10. He keeps his head down and lets his strength and launch angle do the work and hits the ball a mile. 4.) he’s built like a major leaguer already. Scratch that built like a tight end. His legs are massive and he looks comfortable in his size. Really rooting for the kid this year. As MJ said, the ceiling is the roof

There is not a more white sox name than Mike Sirota. Mike Sirotka -> Mike Soroka -> Mike Sirota???