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FriendlyNorthsider

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  1. He’s 2 for 47 with 2 walks and 2 total RBI with 2 out RISP. With less than two outs and RISP he’s hitting like .360. He’s had some huge hits this year in non 2 out RISP spots, but this streak is becoming legendary a la Adam Dunn in 2011. I still think Vaughn will be the best player of this whole bunch when it’s all said and done.
  2. He can. He has a nothing era and the best k/9 in history. TLR just doesn’t trust him
  3. Some thoughts on the ACL and DSL games: The ACL pitching was absolutely dominant today: 9ip 3h 0 walks! 13ks!! Gosswein (2021 4th rounder) is a college guy and is turning 23 next month but you cant ask for much more than the 5IP 3 hits 0 bbs 5 ks hes put up in two starts. Maybe he'll se Kanny soon? Noah Owen (2021 14th rounder) is a JUCO guy turning 21 in October, but again, great results: 3 games 5IP 2 h 1bb 9 ks. The hitting was not particularly sharp today. No Montgomery in the lineup. Veras was 0/4 with 3ks. Kath was 1/4 1RBI 2ks, Benyamin Bailey drew 3 walks which was nice. Elijah Tatis is being given every chance to produce but his 0/4 2k performance sent his OPS down to .324. The DSL Sox won 6-5. They have a 17 year old catcher Manuel Guariman who is batting .425 in 40 ABS with 7ks to 5 walks. Its really hard to read much of anything into DSL, but he and Tapia (homered and stole a base today) are definite bright spots.
  4. He's in a similar spot at Ed Howard of the Cubs. They got put in low A which is a tough assignment for a player out of high school, let alone after a year without competitive baseball, and were over matched. Had they been put in the ACL, they probably would have solid numbers. It's also worth considering that Kannapolis has been an absolute shit show this year. Maybe he'll get a chance to work with Katz in the offseason to figure out what is going on with his command.
  5. gotcha, i thought you were talking about the tough stretch of games coming up punctuated by a series with my Chicago Cubs
  6. Getting beat by Gallo, Judge, and Stanton isnt really that embarrassing. That lineup with Rizzo would not be very fun
  7. Tanner MacDougal had an immaculate inning (1ip, 3k, 9 pitches) in his professional debut today. Not bad for a high school draftee!
  8. To this point, Kimbrel has been a closer since 2011, Hendricks since 2019. After Hendricks first half, TLR felt compelled to give Liam a shot at closing in the second half. At this point though, its time to switch. Liam is still the guy long term. But Kimbrel is a top 5 closer ever. No shame in moving for him
  9. I’m watching his on my phone. Is Collins terrible at framing or is this zone wildly inconsistent
  10. Good call on Steele Walker. I think when I realized he was in the organization, I just assumed it was this trade. Weems has a deceptive 4.94 ERA. In 58 innings he given up 48 hits (including 10 bombs!) and walked 13 while striking out 79. Subtract his 3 inning 10 ER performance and he has a more palatable 3.58 ERA. That said he's a 24 year old in high A. No lost sleep on that part of the deal. Personally, I believe in pushing in chips would rather have the best two closers in baseball for two years instead of dealing with Madrigals hamstring while an equally capable Hernandez rides the bench. Windows are short. Go for it. As a Cubs fan, I love the idea of getting guy like Madrigal who is proven at the MLB level. The teenagers are fun to dream on, but at some point we need to win a major league baseball game. As a supporter of the Sox (and someone who wants to see TA7 win a ring badly), I LOVE this trade. I'm not saying it may not blow up, but this is the exact opposite move you'd expect from this front office. Madrigal is a cost controlled second baseman that gave the Sox a cheap everyday option for the next half decade when you already have a ton of payroll committed. Trading him for Kimbrel (plus the 2021 money and player option) was a commitment to win a ring and to invest the money to do it. Let Madrigal sit next to Jed watching Arizona Fall League while Kimbrel is winning ball games
  11. If the Sox win the World Series this year (or next!) it will be in large part due to the 2018 MLB Draft that currently features zero players on the big league squad. There is a lot of emphasis on homegrown talent, but cashing in on draft picks while they're still prospects can be just as important, especially when you need to make players timelines fit into a championship window. Here's a look back to the 2018 draft. Round 1(4): Nick Madrigal Current Team: Chicago Cubs (Traded with Codi Heuer for Craig Kimbrel) Revisionist historians (Steve Stone) have labeled this pick a reach, but most experts either mocked the pick for the Sox or had the Phillies selecting him at number 3. Madrigal was taken one pick ahead of Jonathan India who is having a 2.3 WAR season for the Reds and two ahead of Jered Kelenic who was a top 10 prospect preseason before his rough start. Maybe the defense and baserunning were overrated as Stone has said, but that is not the White Sox concern anymore. After Madrigal's injury, the Sox needed a second basemen for the title run and acquired Cesar Hernandez who is signed until 2022 making Nicky "Two-Strikes" expendable. This pick will be one of the more panned selections (unfairly, IMO) in recent team history if the Sox don't win a ring during this title window. Cashing in the pick on a hall of fame closer is still a pretty solid return. Certainly better than the Atheltics drafting Kyler Murray at 9 over Grayson Rodriguez (11), Jordan Groshans (12), and Logan Gilbert (14). Round 2(46) Steele Walker Current Team: Texas Rangers (Traded with Dane Dunning for Lance "Cy" Lynn The Sox drafted a 4-YR college outfielder out of Oklahama in lefty Steele Walker with the third pick of the second round. He was selected two spots ahead of Simeon Woods-Richardon and before mid-season top 20 prospect Brennan Davis (pick 62), but is one of the better picks of the round. In his first full year of pro ball, Walker slashed .284/.361/.451 with 10 homers in mostly High A. His year 23 season was wasted by COVID, which is a shame because a lot could've been learned by how he handled AA. Still, no regrats, as he still had enough value to be flipped along with Dane Dunning for Lance Lynn. Dunning has been pretty good this year (108 ERA+. 3.58 FIP) but Lance Lynn has been an ace for the Sox this year AND signed a very reasonable extension. Walker just got called up to AAA after a respectable 103 wRC+ in AA to start the year. Fangraphs has his as a 45+ prospect, which would make him the top hitter in the system. Walker is going to need to go on the Rangers 40-man roster this year, which is of course less of a consideration for a rebuilding team. If Lynn struggled this year, or didn't extend, there would always be questions about this trade (sans a ring of course). But as it stands, this trade, and therefore this pick, was a success. Round 3(81) Konnor Pilkington Current Team: Cleveland Guardians (Traded for Cesar Hernandez) The Sox went for there third college senior of the draft, this time selecting a pitching in Mississippi State lefty Konnor Pilkington with the 3rd pick of round 3. If you were doing a redraft of the third round Pilkington would be one of the first few off of the board after Cal Raleigh (SEA), Kyle Isbel (KC), and maybe Owen White (currently on CLE). This was a pure scouting play for the Sox as Pilkington had a 4.47 ERA his last year with MSU, doesn't have elite "stuff" and was generally not a very highly regarded prospect at the time. Pilkington spent most of his first full year in High A where he had a 4.99 ERA and 1.44 WHIP after dominating low A. Advanced analytics took notice of his .343 BABIP against which put his FIP at a respectable 3.72. Despite losing the 2020 season to COVID, Pilkington has taken a leap at AA this year. In his 16 starts, Pilkington has a 3.25 ERA and .92 WHIP over 72 innings and had 84 K's to 25 walks despite being almost 2 years young for the level. Pilkington turns 24 next month, but will likely being competing for a spot in the rotation some time next year. Pilkington was traded for 2 cheap years of a gold glove second basemen that is an above league average hitter. To get that level of return for a third round pick is a success by any standard. Still anyone thinking that the sox "stole" Hernandez may be too focused on pre-season rankings. Maybe the Sox will regret this long term, but Hernandez will be a big part of this title window. At the very least, Hernandez playing for the Sox instead of against them in the remaining games with CLE helps with HFA. Round 4 and Round 5 At this point in the draft, and arguably earlier, its hard to fault any misses on players because each team has had a few goes at the guys. The Sox drafted high schooler Lency Delgado in the fourth who has a .569 OPS in Low A as a 22 year old. The fifth round pick, Jonathan Stiever was a successful pick as he has already cracked the big league roster. Stiever Dominated his first full season in 2019 with a 3.48 ERA with 154 Ks to 27 walks over 145 innings between Low and High A with most of the success in high A. Stiever made two spot starts with the Sox in the lost COVID year, and while they weren't particularly successful, he was able to convince the Sox to skip AA in 2021 and start his year 24 season in AAA. In hindsight that may have been a bit aggressive as he has a 6.19 ERA in AAA this year (with a 4.65 FIP) in 16 starts. Had he had started the year in AA, perhaps the numbers would look a bit better. Even so he's someone that will likely repeat his role as a spot starter with the big league club in 2022. Round 6(168) Codi Heuer Current Team: Chicago Cubs (Traded with Nick Madrigal for Craig Kimbrel) Originally drafted as a starter, Heuer was quickly converted to becoming a reliever. He dominated his way through the minors in 2019 and was dominant with the big league club in 2020 as a 23 year old. It is rare for a sixth rounder to make the show, and rarer yet to do within 2 years of being drafted. This year, Heuer's command took a step back as his H/9 (and ERA) doubled. Still, Heuer had enough value to be a considerable piece in acquiring Kimbrel. By any standard, Heuer was an absolute hit as a sixth rounder. Following the 6th round, Romy Gonzalez was by far the best pick and was a great find in the 18th round. Although 4 out of the 5 "hits" have been traded in other organizations, the 2018 draft is a great representation of why homegrown talent is not the only indicator of a successful draft. With Madrigal's injury, Heuer's struggles, and Walker and Pilkington being 1-2 years away from contributing, the Sox were not going to be able to capitalize there draft in year 1 of the title window. Kimbrel, Hernandez, and 1/2 of Lynn was a solid haul for a draft class. I think the 2018 draft class will be one of the more talked about classes on the board for years. If Lynn were a disaster or refused to re-sign, Walker and Dunning would be a haul for a 1 year rental. That said, even the biggest prospect huggers on this board can support that trade. The trade to the Cubs changed the Madrigal discussion from whether he was the right pick, to whether he was too much for Kimbrel. If the Sox win in the next two years, that subject will be moot. If they dont and Madrigal becomes a 3-4 WAR guy on the north side, it may be a poor-mans Eloy-Cease for Quintana trade. Pilkington going to the Sox's biggest rival has a chance to be quite annoying, but turning your third round pick into 1.5 cheap years of an above average middle infielder is a huge haul. Hahn was an excellent seller, but this is his first run as a buyer since the Shields trade. The talent recognition in the draft was excellent, but whether the internal evaluations on the players as prospects was correct will be answered over the next few years. As I've said, none of that matters if the Sox get a ring
  12. I dont know if this is a bit tongue and cheek, but I agree with you. Heuer's sinker/fastball is somewhat broken. His heat map is pretty much just a solid red dot in the middle of the plate. The changeup and slider play for sure. The Cubs went after Heuer because they can fix him on the fly at the big league level in the way the Sox can't afford to do right now. One or two bullpen losses could mean losing HFA. The Cubs also believe in their ability to fix bullpen pitchers like they did with Chafin and Tepera. For all the things the Cubs have done wrong in 2021, they have had an elite bullpen for most of the year. Point is, even if Heuer does well with the Cubs it does not mean that he wouldve been able to do it for the 2021 White Sox.
  13. Im not so sure that Kimbrel gets moved. The Sox will definitely pick up the option, because at the very least they could get someone to pay the whole contract and a prospect or two for him. But closers are rarely moved in the off-season, because teams are usually unwilling to give up major assets for a closer until they know they are contenders. If they truly need one, they can usually get one for just money at that point. The Sox can have Kimbrel for the first half of the season and still be able to get as much if not more at the deadline. At that point, maybe the Sox decide to recoup some of the farm system losses. But I would bet good money the Sox will be competing for another title next year. If Kopech goes to the rotation, theyll be in the market for a late-inning guy anyway.
  14. Absolutely. It’s like the Chapman trade the Cubs made. Zero regrets. Being able to play a 7 inning game is so valuable in October. Tepera for Horn was solid. I think this was a win-win
  15. I’ve watched almost every Kimbrel pitch this year. You have the feeling the game is over when he throws his first pitch. He’s so dominant right now
  16. From an emotional standpoint today sucked as a cubs fan. That said the Cubs a huge jolt in the farm without giving up any long term pieces. From a non-emotional standpoint, today was a great day for the Cubs. If this had been a buyers market the cubs would’ve had no real path out of this I also am glad Kimbrel stayed home. I think any of the core guys would hurt a bit, but I love that the Sox are going for it and that Kimbrel can have a shot at a ring.
  17. Cerami is legit. He wouldn’t post if it wasn’t 100%
  18. 40+ on fangraphs is 40+ on fangraphs. Deichmann definitely has some questions in his game, but he's in AAA so hes not a lottery ticket. The other guy is definitely a lottery ticket. He's 5'11 and throws 99 mph so well see how that goes. MLB Pipeline is a joke though. Jose Rodriguez is the Sox #14 prospect and Blake Rutherford is #8. Fangraphs isn't gospel, but it's at least close to reality.
  19. Fangraphs has Deichmann as the A's #8 prospect and Palencia as the #12 (both are 40+s). Two 40+ guys for a non-closer is pretty steep
  20. I looked back at that draft and the Dodgers killed it. They got Gavin Lux at 20, Will Smith at 32, Dustin May at 101, and Tony Gonsolin at 281. They have combined for 13 WAR already. The Sox going Collins at 10, Burdi at 26, with the only other big leaguers being Lambert, Foster, and Ian Hamilton is rough in that context. Going -1.3 war on a draft with two first rounders pretty rough. Certainly helps that other than the Fulmer and Hawkins misses, the rest of the first rounders in the past 10 years range from stars to contributors on the present team.
  21. To go along with this, there was a report that the Cubs, who are going to be the biggest sellers of the deadline, haven't told teams what it'd take to get Bryant, Kimbrel, Baez, Rizzo, etc. The Padres, A's, and Red Sox all had their bullpen lose them the game today. The Giants, A's, and Dodgers the day before. Guys like Degrom and Acuna have gone on the DL causing teams like Phillies to become buyers. Yes some trades will happen over the next few days. The Cubs, Pirates, Rockies, D-Backs, etc cant negotiate 5 deals at once. There are so many aggressive buyers at the deadline though and I don't think teams are going to make an early trade that isn't an overpay. I think there will be some deals to be had on rentals that didn't quite develop a market. Tepera or Chafin for example, are guys that MUST be moved for something of value, but their market is much less clear than a guy like Kimbrel. If a team like the Cubs overplays their hand and still have Chafin and Tepera on the roster 30 minutes before the deadline and the phones arent ringing, they can be had for a fraction of the cost. Yes, HFA is important, but the Sox have wrapped up their division. An extra week of Andrew Chafin is not worth the difference of trading Gavin Sheets instead of James Beard.
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