FriendlyNorthsider

FWIW, 58 of his 68 (85%) homers in the last 3 years would have been out at Comerica. All of his 189 Ks last year would also play at that park. For comparison, 42 of Eloys 55 (76%) wouldve went out at that park.

well shit, I couldve saved myself some time...

Hours later and still no discussion of money. My guess would be 6/145 or so. I'm assuming Detroit had to pay a pretty steep tax to get him to play there instead of NY. I'm far more concerned about the Tigers than anyone else in the central. After they went 8-19 in April, they were 69-66. Replacing Urena with E-Rod and Goodrum with Baez is a big improvement. Who knows how ready Torkelson is, but he'll very likely be a step up over a 39-year-old Miggy. They still have plenty of room to add another few impact players and also have guys like Skubal that could break out. They have one of the best managers in the league IMO and are two years away from being done with paying Miggy 32M a year. The Tigers only have four players on the payroll for 2023 that wont be an ARB or Pre_Arb Player (Baez, E-Rod, Miggy, and Schoop). The only players entering FA that year will be Grossman, Barnhardt, and Fulmer. If they were to bring their payroll up to the Sox budget they could add another TOR starter, Impact Bat, +++. Of course, you trade the Tigers 40-man for the White Sox 40-man any day of the week. But the talent gap is tightening and TLR will have to tighten things up this year. The cakewalk may be over in the ALC

The market is definitely very unclear, but I have to think the Phillies are by far the best fit. The Kimbrel-Segura swap works out financially, but I think there are some issues for either side. If the Sox were to be seriously pursuing a Robbie Ray or and Marcus Semien they might want to find someone that will eat Kimbrel's contract and send over a modest prospect return. If Hahn got somebody to pay the entire contract and got a player like Marchin or traded him back to the Cubs for Codi Heuer, that would ultimately make the move to pick up the option worth it as you'd save the $1M buyout and get a player. I think Kimbrel's deal is right at if not over market value, but I think Hahn is an excellent seller and will be able to get surplus value. A salary floor raise the market for teams willing to take on the entire contract. If a team like the Rays had to get their salary up to say $100M in 2022, Kimbrel would be a great piece for them. That said, the Phillies could also trade Segura to open up salary for a bigger FA if that route opens up for them. If the Sox were to strike out on the big free agents, they could use Kimbrel to swap for a player like Segura that is a much better use of the $16M based on the Sox roster. This may be total bullshit, but I think some newer GM's would rather go for mid-tier relievers that they think may break out instead of putting all of the 16M eggs in the Kimbrel basket. Based only on AAV, you could probably sign Tepera and Graveman for the price of Kimbrel (while supplies last of course). A team with a deeper farm system might just decide to wait until late June to see whether they need a shut down closer and be willing to pay a premium. Old school guys like TLR love having deep bullpens with a big time closer, and fortunately for the Sox, Dombrowski is cut from the same cloth. The best version of the White Sox in 2022 does not include Kimbrel on the roster. Paying 3 players closer money is not tenable unless blowing past the Luxury Tax. I don't think they are in a position to wait to use Kimbrel as a lottery ticket for the first half of the year. Trading Kimbrel now would be trading him for maybe .50 cents on the dollar. His stock is highly volatile however, and there is some big upside come the trade deadline if he returns to form and the right teams are buying. All of this being said, I think the Phillies make a lot of sense. Their farm system is weak, so being able to get Kimbrel for either just money or Segura is a worthwhile risk provided they can make the Luxury Tax work. Dombrowski values closers and knows Kimbrel well from his time in Boston. I can also see teams that would need to make a hypothetical salary minimum being interested in Kimbrel. He would allow them to hit the minimum while their arbitration players mature and get more expensive. And lastly, I could see teams like the Cubs being interested in bringing in Kimbrel should the priority for the Sox be to open up money for a guy like Robbie Ray. The Cubs have a lot of money to spend in 2022 and may be looking for high-AAV, low year players to acquire to trade at the deadline. They would be able to feature Kimbrel in the 9th inning in an environment he succeeded in. All three of these scenarios involve the big free agents signing elsewhere and would likely take place after Dec 1. As the season gets closer, it'll be harder to use Kimbrel to fill a need and will be more likely to be a salary dump

Get good value for Kimbrel and we’re in business. That’s a very solid deal for Graveman

Great post. Not sure I agree with all the valuations, but i agree with most of the processing. As for the trades: 1. I think this is a legitimate valuation and offer and would be great for the Sox. Burger doesn’t have a spot here and Kelley and Bailey are so far away from contributing to a title run. Crochet is a tough pill to swallow but Marte is a legit star. 2. I agree with the other poster that Kimbrels value is a bit too high. We’ll see how the FA market looks for top end relievers too see how much of the salary the Sox have to eat to get a decent prospect package. 3. I think the valuation on Keuchel may be a litte high, but love the thought process. The Cards made Lester a star again after switching from the Nats D to pitching to Yadi and the Cards D. Collins is a nice sweetener to the deal but I think more money will need to be tossed in. From the Cards point of view, they can find cheaper reclamation projects in free agency. All in all I’m quibbling about a few million dollars in salary throw ins which shows how much I agree about the plan. I think the Sox messed up on the QO to Rodon and on picking up Kimbrels option. I think Rodon would have declined given the market and the Sox would get a free draft pick. If the plan is to keep Kimbrel they probably could’ve done better in free agency. If the plan is to trade him, I don’t think there is much surplus value at this point. Just my opinion

Final Stats from the Sox: The good: Caleb Freeman 9IP 7H 5BB 1ER 8K 1.00ERA 1.33 WHIP Yolbert Sanchez 41PA .387/,537/.516 with 10BBs to 2Ks The Meh: Jose Rodriguez 60 PA .232/.283/.339 with 4BBs to 7 Ks. Hes the youngest player on the devil dogs so I'm very satisfied with this showing McKinley Moore 9IP 10 H 5BB 5 ER 9K 1.66 WHIP J.B. Olson 12IP 15 H 2 BB 9ER 11K (4 Homers hurt his line) The Ugly: Yoelkis Cespedes 69 PA .190/261/.238 2BB (+4HPB) 20Ks! Cespedes had only 3 extra-base hits (all doubles). Not ideal

And that is probably true. But he instantly becomes the cubs best starter and is incredibly cheap. Love it for the cubs

Little AFL Update: Jose Rodriguez went 2 for 5 to bring his OPS up to .681. Rodriguez is just 20 years old, making him the youngest on the Devil Dogs. Im definitely impressed with this showing. Yoelqui Cespedes went 1 for 4 and has on OPS of .580. He has 1 XBH (a double) in 30 ABs. His OPS has greatly benefited from his 3 HBPs as he has zero walks to 10ks. Not ideal. Yolbert Sanches didn't play today. He's 2 for 10 in AFL play Johan Dominguez started had an impressive line of : 3IP 2H 1ER 1BB 5 Ks. His ERA is still over 11 for the AFL, but this outing was a great sign. J.B Olson struck out the only batter he faced. Olson has a 4.5 ERA in 6IP so far this fallwith 5 K's to 1 BB. He's 26 years old, but missed one season to injury and obviously lost another to COVID. McKinley Moore didn't pitch but has a 5.40 ERA in 3.1 IP. He's a true reliever that finished the year in high A as a 22 year old. Caleb Freeman didn't pitch either. He has an AFL line of : 3.2 IP 3H 1ER 4BB 2SOs. Freeman had a nice finish to the year and recorded a 2.70 ERA in AA in 14 relief appearances.

FWIW the Cubs were 42-33 on June 24 and were in first place in the NLC. Kimbrel had a save in 20 of those games and had a 0.59 ERA.

This is assuming the QO with Rodon doesn't happen which would be another 18.5M or so, which puts the payroll at 184M. In the week or so after the World Series, the Sox will have made their decisions on Hernandez, Kimbrel, and Rodon. If they keep all 3 (and Rodon stays), that's 40.5M locked in to the 2022 budget. Then we'll likely wait for the CBA to resolve before anything else happens. The Sox would probably be very financially restrained until they moved Kimbrel (if that's even the plan) anyway. After the CBA, the plan may be to try and trade Kimbrel for prospects and use that money on a solid defensive backup catcher, a Tepera-esque reliever, and maybe a flier in right. Or it may be to trade Kimbrel for prospects and keep the payroll at around 165-170M. Since it's not our money, that would suck, but may be the most realistic plan

Damned if you do, damned if you dont. I think that Rodon would likely accept the QO if offered. Maybe someone is willing to offer him 3/60 this off season (assuming the Sox havent made a similar offer). That said, if Rodon replicates this seasons results next year, he goes into free agency as a 30 year old with around 800 career innings with no draft pick compensation attached to him. Not offering the QO would mean losing a 5.0 WAR pitcher for nothing. Going for Stroman, Ray, Scherzer, etc. would be much more expensive and long term proposition. I think there are serious questions about whether the Sox can depend on Kopech to make starts in 2022 and it seems exceedingly unlikely that Crochet will be a starter. Making the wrong call on Rodon's health would be pretty catastrophic. The Sox now have some expensive players on the books in Abreu (19.6M), Lynn (18.5M), Grandal (18.2M), Keuchel (18M), Moncada (13.8M), and Hendricks (13.3M) all over the 10M threshold. The Sox also have an $16M option on Kimbrel to decide on. If the Sox pick up Kimbrel's option that puts them at $136M for Abreu, Lynn, Grandal, Keuchel, Moncada, Hendricks, Kimbrel, and Rodon. Factoring in TA (9.5M), Gio (8M give or take), Eloy (6.5M), and Robert the Sox are now at $166M. Picking up Hernandez's option, and bringing back ReyLo and Engel puts you at around $178M. The Sox would essentially have to run it back with the same squad in 2022, but would go into 2023 with Keuchel, Abreu, Rodon, and Kimbrel's money off the books. In a vacuum, I think the Rodon QO and the Kimbrel option would both be favorable for the Sox; however, selecting both would be a bold use of limited financial space in 2022. All of that being said. if the Sox believe that Rodon will be healthy in 2022, then you have to extend the QO. You simply cant get that upside for 18M, while also keeping the 2023 budget flexible.

The Sox sent Johan Dominguez, Youlqui Cespedes, Caleb Freeman, McKinley Moore, JB Olson, Jose Rodriguez, and Yolbert Sanchez Rodriguez: 1/2 Sanchez: 1/2 Cespedes :1/4 2B RBI Dominguez: 2 IP 2H 1ER 1HR 1BB 3 SO WIN

Check the receipts. I called this

The lack of Manfred runners makes extra innings much better

The Sox are all over Garcia. This is just juicing the live betting line for me

Cease has given up 3 or less runs in 5 or more innings in 13 of his last 15 starts (including his last start in which he pitched 4 innings but was taken out after 69 pitches. I feel more confident in Dylan than anyone else in the rotation at this point. If the Sox can go Dylan for 5, Kopech for 2, and Hendricks for 2 I think the Astros will be struggling to score. Ideally, the Sox can get some big offense early to save Hendricks for game 4. If I were a betting man, I would bet on the Sox in game 3.

Liam is so fucking good. Need to get him the ball with a lead Sunday. Don’t care if it’s the 7th inning

All for a shit AB from Cesar

.

Just horribly fucking managed inning all the way around

It’s almost like they know what’s coming

Liam for 2 today. Gotta claw for this

Time to get one more and ride the bullpen. Let’s go

Day off tomorrow and fresh one from yesterday. I’m fine with nibbling, just keep it close and treat it like a tie game or a lead