FriendlyNorthsider

I dont know if this is a bit tongue and cheek, but I agree with you. Heuer's sinker/fastball is somewhat broken. His heat map is pretty much just a solid red dot in the middle of the plate. The changeup and slider play for sure. The Cubs went after Heuer because they can fix him on the fly at the big league level in the way the Sox can't afford to do right now. One or two bullpen losses could mean losing HFA. The Cubs also believe in their ability to fix bullpen pitchers like they did with Chafin and Tepera. For all the things the Cubs have done wrong in 2021, they have had an elite bullpen for most of the year. Point is, even if Heuer does well with the Cubs it does not mean that he wouldve been able to do it for the 2021 White Sox.

Im not so sure that Kimbrel gets moved. The Sox will definitely pick up the option, because at the very least they could get someone to pay the whole contract and a prospect or two for him. But closers are rarely moved in the off-season, because teams are usually unwilling to give up major assets for a closer until they know they are contenders. If they truly need one, they can usually get one for just money at that point. The Sox can have Kimbrel for the first half of the season and still be able to get as much if not more at the deadline. At that point, maybe the Sox decide to recoup some of the farm system losses. But I would bet good money the Sox will be competing for another title next year. If Kopech goes to the rotation, theyll be in the market for a late-inning guy anyway.

And Jake burger is….?

Absolutely. It’s like the Chapman trade the Cubs made. Zero regrets. Being able to play a 7 inning game is so valuable in October. Tepera for Horn was solid. I think this was a win-win

I’ve watched almost every Kimbrel pitch this year. You have the feeling the game is over when he throws his first pitch. He’s so dominant right now

From an emotional standpoint today sucked as a cubs fan. That said the Cubs a huge jolt in the farm without giving up any long term pieces. From a non-emotional standpoint, today was a great day for the Cubs. If this had been a buyers market the cubs would’ve had no real path out of this I also am glad Kimbrel stayed home. I think any of the core guys would hurt a bit, but I love that the Sox are going for it and that Kimbrel can have a shot at a ring.

The famous Mike hawk has Crotchet to the Cubs

Cerami is legit. He wouldn’t post if it wasn’t 100%

40+ on fangraphs is 40+ on fangraphs. Deichmann definitely has some questions in his game, but he's in AAA so hes not a lottery ticket. The other guy is definitely a lottery ticket. He's 5'11 and throws 99 mph so well see how that goes. MLB Pipeline is a joke though. Jose Rodriguez is the Sox #14 prospect and Blake Rutherford is #8. Fangraphs isn't gospel, but it's at least close to reality.

Fangraphs has Deichmann as the A's #8 prospect and Palencia as the #12 (both are 40+s). Two 40+ guys for a non-closer is pretty steep

I looked back at that draft and the Dodgers killed it. They got Gavin Lux at 20, Will Smith at 32, Dustin May at 101, and Tony Gonsolin at 281. They have combined for 13 WAR already. The Sox going Collins at 10, Burdi at 26, with the only other big leaguers being Lambert, Foster, and Ian Hamilton is rough in that context. Going -1.3 war on a draft with two first rounders pretty rough. Certainly helps that other than the Fulmer and Hawkins misses, the rest of the first rounders in the past 10 years range from stars to contributors on the present team.

To go along with this, there was a report that the Cubs, who are going to be the biggest sellers of the deadline, haven't told teams what it'd take to get Bryant, Kimbrel, Baez, Rizzo, etc. The Padres, A's, and Red Sox all had their bullpen lose them the game today. The Giants, A's, and Dodgers the day before. Guys like Degrom and Acuna have gone on the DL causing teams like Phillies to become buyers. Yes some trades will happen over the next few days. The Cubs, Pirates, Rockies, D-Backs, etc cant negotiate 5 deals at once. There are so many aggressive buyers at the deadline though and I don't think teams are going to make an early trade that isn't an overpay. I think there will be some deals to be had on rentals that didn't quite develop a market. Tepera or Chafin for example, are guys that MUST be moved for something of value, but their market is much less clear than a guy like Kimbrel. If a team like the Cubs overplays their hand and still have Chafin and Tepera on the roster 30 minutes before the deadline and the phones arent ringing, they can be had for a fraction of the cost. Yes, HFA is important, but the Sox have wrapped up their division. An extra week of Andrew Chafin is not worth the difference of trading Gavin Sheets instead of James Beard.

Id rather have this cold spell before July 30 than after. At least there is some level of urgency to get another bullpen piece and maybe even a second baseman. Well see what Against MIN, DET, KC, BAL, TEX, and PIT the Sox are 38-12 with a +127 run differential. That leaves them at 20-28 against teams that arent terrible this year. The Angels are the only sub 500 team i included in that group because they had a healthy Trout at the time. If you're going with record over .500 teams they are 19-25. This is how AL contenders rank against over 500 teams: 1. Astros 39-22 61GP 2.Red Sox 34-24 58 GP 3. Rays 34-26 60 GP 4. Mariners 26-26 52 GP 5. Yankees 31-32 63 GP 6. TIgers 26-30 56 GP 7 Blue Jays 26-34 60 GP 8. White Sox 19-25 44 GP 9 Oakland 21-29 50 GP 10 LAA 26-41 67 GP It's not the Sox fault that only one other team in the division is .500 or better. Also, not every team takes advantage of freebies. The Astros are 21-17 against under 500 teams and that can be huge when it comes to HFA. That said, if the Indians lose tomorrow, the Sox will have 33 games against 500 or better teams. To think that this team is a finished product is a bit optimistic at this time.

FWIW, the Sox added 13M in value in the draft and Kath (40+FV) and Montgomery (40+FV) slot in as their number 2 and 3 prospects. Unless Kelley turns things around, they could be 1 and 2 toward the end of the year. Burke (40FV )is ranked 12th in the system and McDougal (35+FV) is 27th

I was about to make a post about this. First of all, this series affirms that the Sox are are in a pretty unique situation compared to most teams. There are teams with as much talent, sure, but none with the amount of cheap control the Sox have. I will say, I can nitpick on some of the rankings. In what world would the Sox be okay trading Robert for Ketel Marte. Also, Eloy over Robert is ridiculous. I get that Eloy has 70-80 grade power, but in no way is a DH better than a five-tool guy. As a Cubs fan, this list is depressing. I remember when Baez, Bryant, Russell, Rizzo, Hendricks etc. were on here. Now were creating new adjectives to describe hamstring injuries just to ship Bryant off. But as a guy who has loved watching the Sox build this list through the draft and the Sale, Quintana, and Eaton trades, this is pretty awesome to see.

Wow! Lynn earned it. I’m curious about the third year/buyout situation but then again I’m not because it’s not my money. Great news!

Yeah, the cubs shouldn’t get any power prospects because Dayan Viciedo sucks. And Kelley gave up a homer to a Yu Darvish teen on the cubs last night so he’s still in rookie ball FYI.

Not sure how a .750 OPS is more disappointing than a double digit ERA in rookie ball as the teams top prospect but okay. Longenhagen, who unlike you has seen this guy play, gave the guy a 70 grade for raw power. Mlb pipeline has him ahead of Gavin sheets in updated rankings.

Ah yes, let’s completely ignore the context of COVID putting every milb player back a year in a development. The guy also turned 23 last week. He’s a year younger than the average player at high A. The braves paid a lot for 2 months of a platoon bat that plays bad defense.

Even with Ball’s struggles this year he’d be a top 5 player in the Sox system after the draft according to Fangraphs. That’s a very solid haul for Joc IMO

I agree on Keuchel. His xERA (5.77!) is in the bottom 10th percentile and his xBA (.305!!) is in bottom 2nd percentile, so the step back from last year doesnt seem like bad luck. If he hits 160 IP this year, his contract becomes a lot harder to move. If he hits 160 next year, he'll be paid $20M in 2023. If he doesn't, the team will either have to pick up his option or pay $1.5M on top of the $18M hes owed next year to terminate the deal. A $19.5M rentral that doesn't pitch 160 innings is a poor move. I don't think thats particularly close to his market value at the moment. What's particularly frustrating is that the Sox were a set of in-laws away from Zach Wheeler and his 5 WAR he has so far this year.

Yeah. It’s kinda of weird to draft for organizational need late, but with less minor league teams balance is more important. No point in having developmental bats on the bench. You can never have enough pitchers though

At least we know his hitting is all natural unlike Altuve

I'm curious what kind of bonus Montgomery will get. The guy is a high ceiling three-sport prep guy who was possibly going to go at #10 until Rocker fell. I have no doubt Montgomery will sign because he and the Sox talked a ton pre draft and I'm sure had a detailed talk about the numbers. I do doubt; however, that he will take any sort of discount. My uneducated guess is between slot and 250k over slot. I would say that likely means a college senior with the second round pick as the Sox have the sixth smallest bonus pool, but after the Kelley/Crotchet combo last year, who knows.

I'm sorry in advance if this has been covered elsewhere or is the wrong place but Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs released his updated Farm System Rankings and the Sox are dead last. The Sox are probably top 5 in the league in under 25 year old talent so this highly misleading, but is in important consideration as the deadline approaches. According to Longenhagen the Sox have just one prospect that grades as a FV 45 and that is Jared Kelley. The number 2 prospect in the system is Zach Burdi who is one of four 40+ FV guys along with Bailey, J Rodriguez, and Adolfo. I take a bit of issue with how low Longenhagen is on Yoelqui and of course the Sox are also poised to sign Colas, but that is still alarming. For comparison's sake, the Rays, who have the top farm system according to Fangraphs, have 13 guys who grade out at FV 45 or higher. The team with the second most depleted farm is the Nationals, who have a 3 that are 45 or higher. According to Fangraphs the Rays have 560M in value in their farm system while the Sox have $46 Million. The Sox are one of just two teams under $100M. The Sox are inside their championship window and are golden for at least three years thanks to some great trades by Hahn and nailing most every first rounder for the past three years. The state of the system is strong, despite it being dangerously top heavy. The biggest issue with this is that the Sox have a LOT less trade capital in the minors than most the other sellers at the deadline. The Dodgers have 10 pitchers and 5 hitters at or above Jared Kelley. The Rays, Padres, Red Sox, and Mets are way ahead as well. Oakland and Houston, who are in the bottom third, each have nearly triple the value in prospects. Hahn has a very interesting deadline ahead of him. He has two All-Stars and Cy-Young candidates entering free-agency next year. The Sox are firmly in first place and are considered one of the favorites to come out of the AL according to Fangraphs. They realistically have some financial wiggle room to add talent based on comments made earlier in the year and the success of the vanccine/re-opening of GRF. They have a whole at second base and continue to be snake-bitten by injuries. A lot of things point to buying. That said, the Sox also have a lot of talent coming back to a team that is already firmly in first place. Eloy is rehabbing, Robert is set to return later in the year, and Grandal wont miss much after July if things go to plan. Kopech is every bit the stopper that they hoped he would be, Henricks has been dominant, and Crotchet has managed to keep his elbow in tact. August will be a much more challenging month for the Sox and for all of the injuries to the hitters, the pitchers have been absolute horses this year. The bullpen as it is is formidable, but a loss of one of the big three would make me feel less than confident against a team like Houston or Tampa. The graduation of Vaughn, Kopech, Crotchet, and Madrigal has left the Sox cupboard nearly empty as far as centerpiece guys for impact pieces. Even Kelley was knocked around in his most recent start in the ACL which was undoubtedly attended by lots of deadline sellers. Following the T*tis Jr debacle. the Sox seem reticent to send the raw IFA guys that could develop into studs. Even the next tier of guys like Burger and Sheets are important parts of the 2021 team and would be tough to let go. One thing that I think the Sox MUST do this deadline is eat money. There will always be rentals that will be made much more affordable to teams that are willing to eat money. Eating bad money (not Heyward bad!) will allow the Sox to be a lot more competitive than teams who are skirting the Salary Cap or are just unwilling to add salary. Another consideration for Hahn has to be that he will probably be drafting the the bottom fourth of the first round for the next 3-4 years. The pipeline is not going to have the same level of retooling they had with the last five years of picking in the top 11. Ive been fairly outspoken about my belief that the Sox need to push chips in that impact the title chances between now and 2024. The state of the Sox farm indicates a reload may not be very likely in 2023 and 2024 when a lot of the core enters Free agency or is very expensive. The point is that Benyamin Bailey may develop into a great player. But it's unlikely it would be for a title contending White Sox team. Ultimately, I think the Sox should be willing to eat as much money as Jerry will sign for (and then some). If that isn't enough, then Hahn needs to either decide to pull a Theo and trade whats left of your farm to win a title or to stand pat and hope that this young team is enough to win a title.