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Id rather have this cold spell before July 30 than after. At least there is some level of urgency to get another bullpen piece and maybe even a second baseman. Well see what Against MIN, DET, KC, BAL, TEX, and PIT the Sox are 38-12 with a +127 run differential. That leaves them at 20-28 against teams that arent terrible this year. The Angels are the only sub 500 team i included in that group because they had a healthy Trout at the time. If you're going with record over .500 teams they are 19-25. This is how AL contenders rank against over 500 teams: 1. Astros 39-22 61GP 2.Red Sox 34-24 58 GP 3. Rays 34-26 60 GP 4. Mariners 26-26 52 GP 5. Yankees 31-32 63 GP 6. TIgers 26-30 56 GP 7 Blue Jays 26-34 60 GP 8. White Sox 19-25 44 GP 9 Oakland 21-29 50 GP 10 LAA 26-41 67 GP It's not the Sox fault that only one other team in the division is .500 or better. Also, not every team takes advantage of freebies. The Astros are 21-17 against under 500 teams and that can be huge when it comes to HFA. That said, if the Indians lose tomorrow, the Sox will have 33 games against 500 or better teams. To think that this team is a finished product is a bit optimistic at this time.

FWIW, the Sox added 13M in value in the draft and Kath (40+FV) and Montgomery (40+FV) slot in as their number 2 and 3 prospects. Unless Kelley turns things around, they could be 1 and 2 toward the end of the year. Burke (40FV )is ranked 12th in the system and McDougal (35+FV) is 27th

I was about to make a post about this. First of all, this series affirms that the Sox are are in a pretty unique situation compared to most teams. There are teams with as much talent, sure, but none with the amount of cheap control the Sox have. I will say, I can nitpick on some of the rankings. In what world would the Sox be okay trading Robert for Ketel Marte. Also, Eloy over Robert is ridiculous. I get that Eloy has 70-80 grade power, but in no way is a DH better than a five-tool guy. As a Cubs fan, this list is depressing. I remember when Baez, Bryant, Russell, Rizzo, Hendricks etc. were on here. Now were creating new adjectives to describe hamstring injuries just to ship Bryant off. But as a guy who has loved watching the Sox build this list through the draft and the Sale, Quintana, and Eaton trades, this is pretty awesome to see.

Wow! Lynn earned it. I’m curious about the third year/buyout situation but then again I’m not because it’s not my money. Great news!

Yeah, the cubs shouldn’t get any power prospects because Dayan Viciedo sucks. And Kelley gave up a homer to a Yu Darvish teen on the cubs last night so he’s still in rookie ball FYI.

Not sure how a .750 OPS is more disappointing than a double digit ERA in rookie ball as the teams top prospect but okay. Longenhagen, who unlike you has seen this guy play, gave the guy a 70 grade for raw power. Mlb pipeline has him ahead of Gavin sheets in updated rankings.

Ah yes, let’s completely ignore the context of COVID putting every milb player back a year in a development. The guy also turned 23 last week. He’s a year younger than the average player at high A. The braves paid a lot for 2 months of a platoon bat that plays bad defense.

Even with Ball’s struggles this year he’d be a top 5 player in the Sox system after the draft according to Fangraphs. That’s a very solid haul for Joc IMO

I agree on Keuchel. His xERA (5.77!) is in the bottom 10th percentile and his xBA (.305!!) is in bottom 2nd percentile, so the step back from last year doesnt seem like bad luck. If he hits 160 IP this year, his contract becomes a lot harder to move. If he hits 160 next year, he'll be paid $20M in 2023. If he doesn't, the team will either have to pick up his option or pay $1.5M on top of the $18M hes owed next year to terminate the deal. A $19.5M rentral that doesn't pitch 160 innings is a poor move. I don't think thats particularly close to his market value at the moment. What's particularly frustrating is that the Sox were a set of in-laws away from Zach Wheeler and his 5 WAR he has so far this year.

Yeah. It’s kinda of weird to draft for organizational need late, but with less minor league teams balance is more important. No point in having developmental bats on the bench. You can never have enough pitchers though

At least we know his hitting is all natural unlike Altuve

I'm curious what kind of bonus Montgomery will get. The guy is a high ceiling three-sport prep guy who was possibly going to go at #10 until Rocker fell. I have no doubt Montgomery will sign because he and the Sox talked a ton pre draft and I'm sure had a detailed talk about the numbers. I do doubt; however, that he will take any sort of discount. My uneducated guess is between slot and 250k over slot. I would say that likely means a college senior with the second round pick as the Sox have the sixth smallest bonus pool, but after the Kelley/Crotchet combo last year, who knows.

I'm sorry in advance if this has been covered elsewhere or is the wrong place but Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs released his updated Farm System Rankings and the Sox are dead last. The Sox are probably top 5 in the league in under 25 year old talent so this highly misleading, but is in important consideration as the deadline approaches. According to Longenhagen the Sox have just one prospect that grades as a FV 45 and that is Jared Kelley. The number 2 prospect in the system is Zach Burdi who is one of four 40+ FV guys along with Bailey, J Rodriguez, and Adolfo. I take a bit of issue with how low Longenhagen is on Yoelqui and of course the Sox are also poised to sign Colas, but that is still alarming. For comparison's sake, the Rays, who have the top farm system according to Fangraphs, have 13 guys who grade out at FV 45 or higher. The team with the second most depleted farm is the Nationals, who have a 3 that are 45 or higher. According to Fangraphs the Rays have 560M in value in their farm system while the Sox have $46 Million. The Sox are one of just two teams under $100M. The Sox are inside their championship window and are golden for at least three years thanks to some great trades by Hahn and nailing most every first rounder for the past three years. The state of the system is strong, despite it being dangerously top heavy. The biggest issue with this is that the Sox have a LOT less trade capital in the minors than most the other sellers at the deadline. The Dodgers have 10 pitchers and 5 hitters at or above Jared Kelley. The Rays, Padres, Red Sox, and Mets are way ahead as well. Oakland and Houston, who are in the bottom third, each have nearly triple the value in prospects. Hahn has a very interesting deadline ahead of him. He has two All-Stars and Cy-Young candidates entering free-agency next year. The Sox are firmly in first place and are considered one of the favorites to come out of the AL according to Fangraphs. They realistically have some financial wiggle room to add talent based on comments made earlier in the year and the success of the vanccine/re-opening of GRF. They have a whole at second base and continue to be snake-bitten by injuries. A lot of things point to buying. That said, the Sox also have a lot of talent coming back to a team that is already firmly in first place. Eloy is rehabbing, Robert is set to return later in the year, and Grandal wont miss much after July if things go to plan. Kopech is every bit the stopper that they hoped he would be, Henricks has been dominant, and Crotchet has managed to keep his elbow in tact. August will be a much more challenging month for the Sox and for all of the injuries to the hitters, the pitchers have been absolute horses this year. The bullpen as it is is formidable, but a loss of one of the big three would make me feel less than confident against a team like Houston or Tampa. The graduation of Vaughn, Kopech, Crotchet, and Madrigal has left the Sox cupboard nearly empty as far as centerpiece guys for impact pieces. Even Kelley was knocked around in his most recent start in the ACL which was undoubtedly attended by lots of deadline sellers. Following the T*tis Jr debacle. the Sox seem reticent to send the raw IFA guys that could develop into studs. Even the next tier of guys like Burger and Sheets are important parts of the 2021 team and would be tough to let go. One thing that I think the Sox MUST do this deadline is eat money. There will always be rentals that will be made much more affordable to teams that are willing to eat money. Eating bad money (not Heyward bad!) will allow the Sox to be a lot more competitive than teams who are skirting the Salary Cap or are just unwilling to add salary. Another consideration for Hahn has to be that he will probably be drafting the the bottom fourth of the first round for the next 3-4 years. The pipeline is not going to have the same level of retooling they had with the last five years of picking in the top 11. Ive been fairly outspoken about my belief that the Sox need to push chips in that impact the title chances between now and 2024. The state of the Sox farm indicates a reload may not be very likely in 2023 and 2024 when a lot of the core enters Free agency or is very expensive. The point is that Benyamin Bailey may develop into a great player. But it's unlikely it would be for a title contending White Sox team. Ultimately, I think the Sox should be willing to eat as much money as Jerry will sign for (and then some). If that isn't enough, then Hahn needs to either decide to pull a Theo and trade whats left of your farm to win a title or to stand pat and hope that this young team is enough to win a title.

Scherzer was rightfully upset because he was pulled off of the mound mid inning in a big spot on the game. He wasn’t mad at the umps but mad that Girardi was essentially icing him

Great write up. There are a lot of important players playing in the ACL for the sox not only for the future, but for establishing some value at the deadline. The guys whose box scores I will watch closest are Tatis (obviously), Bailey, Mendoza, Guzman, and Mena. Mendoza is a key prospect for the sox considering the lack of catching depth in the minors. After the Collins pick, there has been very little invested in the catcher position in the draft or IFA other than the Mendoza signing. A legit catching prospect with defensive upside would be huge for the Sox.

He hit his first bomb yesterday. The jury is still out on him and will be for some time. That said, I think it's extremely unlikely he makes an impact in the MLB in 2022 let alone 2021.

The Sox window 2021-2024 IMO as the core becomes more expensive or is leaving in 2024. There isnt a single minor leaguer at this point that I wouldn't be okay trading if it made sense for the big league club. None of the minor leaguers are, at this point, top 100 guys. Jose Rodriguez is probably the best Sox prospect at this point (beyond the Cubans and maybe Kelley), and he isnt untouchable. The Sox have two Cy young candidates entering free-agency next year, making this year a good year to push some more chips in. Until we see the Sox play some more quality competition, I think we wont fully understand what their needs are until they play teams that are better than DET, BAL, KC, etc.. If they run through Tampa Bay and the Astros, then maybe you're right and there is no reason to mortgage any part of the future. But I worry that at some point, theyre going to need another impact bat and another impact arm in the pen as insurance for a Crotchet injury or having to use Kopech as an opener due to injuries. After the deadline the Sox have a run of 3 @ CHC, 3 @MIN, 3 v NYY, 3 v OAK, 3 @TB, 4 @ TOR, and 3 v CHC. I'd rather be over-prepared for the test than under prepared.The Sox are by far the best team in the AL Central and personally, I think they'll run away with it. I'm more worried about an ALCS against NYY where they made some big moves at the deadline. That gives them time to fully assess what they need and how badly they need it. Winning a World Series is incredibly difficult and may require some sacrifice in the long term. I always go back to my Cubs, but there isnt a Cub fan out there that regrets Gleyber for Chapman. The Cubs had a glaring need at the deadline and made a deal that put them over the edge. Quintana for Cease + Eloy or even Wade Davis for Soler were different. Those trades were anticipatory and ended up backfiring. The Dunning for Lynn trade was largely panned here as paying too much for a rental, but look at how its panning out. The Sox realized in 2020 that they needed top of the rotation pitching to win in the playoffs, and they struck gold. Anything the Sox can do to win in 2021-2024 should be on the table. If the Sox arent going to trade Kade Mclure or Jake frickin Burger to make them even stronger for the playoffs, then they should just trade Rodon and Lynn for a king's ransom and get back a couple of high school juniors like the Cubs did for Yu. Hahn has done a great job of turning Eaton, Quintana, Sale, and years of good draft picks into Giolito, Moncada, Kopech, Lynn, Vaughn, Eloy, Cease, Rodon, TA, Madrigal, etc. Give him the keys to put them over the top. Just my opinion

Well shit.

Ive written about this in another thread, but the Sox do have a lot of money committed to '22, '23, and '24 as they don't have too many contacts coming off the books and a lot of the young core is due for Arb raises or steep increases from their extensions. For comparison sake, the Sox have $85M (not including the Arb 2 years for Madrigal and Cease and Arb 1 years for Kopech and Crotchet) in payroll committed to 2024 and the Cubs have just $5M. The Sox financial commitments are pretty much entirely healthy. There arent any true albatross contacts and the long term commitments all seem like good investments at this point. The roughly $52M/year investment into Keuchel, Hendricks, and Grandal will ultimately impact what theyre able to spend in the coming summers, however. For 2022, the Sox have $116M committed (The Arb raises for Gio and Engle and the buyout from Eaton probably even out), but need to replace Rodon and Lynn who have been aces for a whopping $12M combined. The Sox will also have to patch up the bench and bullpen as their are a few expiring contacts (Lamb and Hamilton) and arb casualties (Marshall, Fry, and maybe Leury). The Sox need to go cheap and homegrown for as much of these spots as possible. Eloy can replace Eaton, defense be damned. I think Kopech needs to be converted back into being a starter. That would allow the Sox to afford to retain Lynn or Rodon and have money to address their other needs. The only other in house option that will likely be ready to start in 2022 is Stiever and Mike Wright who would be significant downgrades, but are serviceable As for relievers, Burdi and Medieros would be the in house options to fill in whats missing in the pen and Pilkington (maybe as a starter) and Gomez are also intriguing. As for hitting, next up in the pipeline is Burger, Sheets, Zavala, Cespedes, Adolfo, and Romy Gonzalez. I would love to see Burger and Sheets get some big league at bats this year and to see how well how they both can defend. It's also important to see if Yermin ends up more toward his player of the month April or his .567 OPS since May. It would be huge if he maintains his standing as a cheap long-term stars in the lineup along with Madrigal and Vaughn. If there was ever a time to increase the payroll this next offseason is it. The 2021-22 free agent class (pending extensions) is stacked which fits perfectly in this window over the next 2 years. Yoan goes from 6.8M in 21 to 24.8M in 24. Robert goes from $3,5M in 21 to 12.5M in 24. Eloy goes from 4.3 to 13.8. Timmy Goes from 7.2 to 14. Yoan, Robert, Eloy, Hendricks and TA cost the Sox $33.1M in 2021. The commitment to those same players goes up to 80.1M in 2024. As I said earlier, that doesnt include the Arb raises/extensions for Madrigal, Cease, Kopech and Crotchet. Gio and Keuchel are also UFAs in 2024 so thats two more rotation spots to fill. If the Sox don't develop their young pitching, they will have the same problem the Cubs had come 2024. If I were Rick Hahn, I would consider my window 2021-2023 and make whatever moves they need to get over the hump.

Here is a 2018 Mock Draft from the night of the draft. Both Mayo and Callis had Madrigal going at 3 to the Phillies and Brady Singer going 4 to the Sox. Both had Kelenic going 13 to the Marlins. Fangraphs had the Sox take Singer, the Reds taking Madrigal and the Mets taking Kelenic at 6. If you want to call it a scouting failure, fine. But Madrigal seemed to be a consensus top 5 pick and not just because of his connection to the White Sox. 2018 has a chance to be one of the best draft classes in recent memory, so there will always be what ifs, but the Sox have a guy who is a solid every day player on a playoff caliber team. Essentially half the draft class has been in the top 40 of a recent top prospect list

Gladney has been a huge bright spot in Kann. If he sticks at third, he has a nice ceiling

Has a better ring to it than Benyamin Bailey I guess

Low A is going to be very interesting this year, because their are a lot of fairly aggressive placements all around that league. Jose Rodriguez (19 yo, Fangraphs #8 Prospect) is slashing .406/.424/.594 through 33 plate appearances in his first taste of full-season ball, which is by far the hottest start on the team. Benny Bailey (19 yo, Fangraphs #9 Prospect) is just 2/21 with a homer, but that is somewhat expected at this point. As a guy who passionately follows MiLB, he's one of the box scores I check each day. He reworked his swing since his last game action, so I imagine it'll take time to get going. James Beard (20 yo, Fangraphs #22 Prospect) is an interesting watch as well. He's very raw as a hitter, but his .188/.350/,375 slash in 20 PAs is not a terrible start minus the 9 strikeouts. He has 4 walks already compared to 8 in 127 ABs last year. It's going to take a while to see how much he improved during the 2020 season. DJ Gladney (19 yo, Fangraphs #32) is slashing .238/.385/.381 so far this year with a few extra base hits and 4 walks so far. Jared Kelley (19 yo, Fangraphs #5) has had a rough start to the year as he has an 8.10 ERA and 3.00 WHIP in his two starts that covered 3.1 innings. He wouldve have some time at rookie ball last year to work on things if not for COVID, so his start is to be taken lightly. Matthew Thompson (20 yo, Fangraphs #10) and Andrew Dalquist (20 yo, Fangraphs #11) have all held their own this year in their appearances. Bailey Horn (23 yo, Fangraphs #30), who scouts pegged as a reliever out of college, was dominant in his one start throwing 4 hitless innings with 1 walk and 3 ks. If Horn can develop into a starter that would be a HUGE scouting success as he only started 9 games during his two years at Auburn. He logged only 55 innings in 22 appearances with a 4.75 ERA and 1.38 WHIP during college, so he was more of a projectability pick than anything. The Cubs drafted a similar player (Ryan Jensen) in the first round in 2019 with worse professional results at this point. The Sox have a very top heavy farm with most of the top players set to graduate this year. Kannapolis is loaded with young talent and will be an interesting follow all year.

For what he lacks in X's and O's he's seemingly doing a pretty good job of a few things. It would be easy for a young team to lose focus after losing two of your best hitters, but the Sox are playing their best baseball of the year. Whether its solely the positional coaches or not, players are making adjustments and significant improvements from last year. The analytics issues are very easily remedies as Tony appears willing to own up to mistakes. Have a quality control or bench coach more familiar with analytics in his ear during those decisions. Could Hinch or Cora have done this and also won two or three of these bullpen losses? Probably. But not every manager can get what TLR has gotten out of the Sox this year, either. Yes, the game has passed him by in some ways, but he seems up to the challenge. Keep in mind, I'm a Cubs fan that has always disliked TLR.

The solution to that would be to have him in ML spring training right? It annoying that this is still an issue