FriendlyNorthsider

I noticed this too when I was putting together the numbers and didn't have a great answer for it, other than the differences in the various swing %s and batted ball outcomes is pretty large. And Kuechel's soft contact rate was 18.7% (25th/81) and hard contact rate was 25% (7th/81) while Cease's soft contact rate of 11% (79st/81) and hard contact rate of 36.3% was (62nd/81). Throwing first pitch strikes will help, but there's probably more to it than that

If he has one project this year it should be Cease. The analytics show that he has PLUS stuff but cant generate swings and misses. His awful swing/miss and chase peripherals remind me of 2018 Gio which makes Cease such a break out candidate IMO. Cease's O-Swing% (Swings on pitches outside the zone) was 26% (8th lowest among 81 pitchers with 50IP) and his swing and miss % was 9% (18th worst). He also had a first pitch strike percentage of 54% (7th worst). In 2018 Giolito's O-Swing% was 24%, his Swing and Miss % was 8%, and his first pitch strike % was 55% . In 2019 that went to 32%, 15%, and 62% respectively. Jake Arrieta, another guy who had a rough MLB start but had plus stuff had similar changes in those percentages. Both made minor adjustments on mound positioning and increased first pitch strike % significantly. Having plus stuff doesnt mean shit if youre behind in the count. His swing % was 41% which was sixth lowest which makes sense he started as many counts 1-0 as nearly any pitcher in the league.

The whole benefit of having a cost-controlled core of homegrown prospects and a great farm below them is that you have the financial and prospect capital to add star players while other teams are tapped out. I don't mind the Sox waiting until June or July to assess how close this team is before they push in chips more significant than Dane Dunning, but at some point you have to make some tough choices. Players don't always devleop in a straight line. Jason Heyward had a 6 WAR year at 20 and a 1 WAR year at 26. Addsion Russell was a 3.2 WAR player at 22 and is now batting .254 for the Kiwoom Heroes at 26. Between injuries or just natural regression you never know how long your window will be. If the Sox get out to a hot start and they can trade guys with a 2023 or 2024 ETA like Kelley, Thompson, or Bailey for an elite starter or even a rental like Kris Bryant if he gets back to form I would support it.

Thanks! Ive been reading for a long time, but decided to create an account as this probably the most active and informed message board for any team I have seen. Like my name suggests, I'm a cubs fan but I got addicted to the rebuild process. I remember watching minor league box scores every night for Soler, Eloy, Cease, Gleybar, Russell, Baez, Bryant, and got to see it all come to fruition in 2016. Seeing what the Sox have done has been a ton of fun for me as a distraction from the Cubs obliterating their championship window. I think Hahn is one of the best GMs in the game and love watching guys like TA, Eloy, and Robert play ball, This team is so much more likable than they were in the Drake Laroache era.

I wonder what the package would look like considering the Sox are a top heavy farm system. Maybe Thompson, Steiver, Dalquist, and Bailey for Darvish, Caratini, and Kimbrel (Plus money to at least cover that contract). I know a lot of people would balk at Kimbrel as a throw in but he put it together in Sept. last year. That would be a huge push forward in poker chips, but leaves the young core intact and doesnt touch the top five.

FWIW, he has Gavin Sheets as a 40 and Cespedes as a 35+ meaning that Cespedes would slot somewhere between him and number 32 Jake Burger in the Sox System. That just seems ridiculous to me

This is essentially the same plan Sale was on which is to put him in a high leverage relief role for his first full year. Not only does that benefit the MLB team, but hopefully challenge him a bit as hitters adjust to him. If he makes it through the year in one piece, start extending him over the off season into a starting role. There is the Aroldis Chapman plan as well, which is to concede that he's not going to be able to throw 102 MPH over 6-7 innings. Crotchet would safely be an elite closer this yea and would be able to channel his elite velocity. Slot him in that role for years to come. Another way would be to have him pitch in lower-leverage 2-3 innings bursts at the big league level. Ultimately, if he's going to start I think he needs to have a bit less violence in his motion. The risk of having him up in a low-leverage role is that it would be too tempting for TLR to misuse him. The last way would be to have him pitch 3-5 innings in AAA every six days and see exactly what you have. If he can maintain his velocity and command two times through the order then you have to at least try him as a starter next year. The advantage of AAA would be that everything would be about his development and not winning the division. He could try not throwing 102 every pitch and try and simplify his motion.