FriendlyNorthsider

I'm really curious to see what sort of mechanical changes Katz made with Cease. If Cease maintained his 2020 performance that would be a huge disappointment because he had a 6.36 FIP (80th out of 81 pitchers with 50 IP) and a 5.87 xFIP (79th). His LOB% was 81.7% (league avg is 74%). Hitters had a .238 BABIP despite being in the bottom 25% of the league in xSLG, xBA, Exit Velocity, and Hard Hit %. Essentially he got about as lucky as you could get last year. That said his stuff is filthy and he has so much room to improve and could do so very rapidly. He has the potential to be a star if he improves his command and it could easily happen this year. The projections for him all seem to believe that his K/9 will go back up and his walks will go down. I believe that too, but he needs to be a whole lot better this year. One reason I'm optimistic is that his splits when starting 1-0 vs 0-1 in 2020. After 1-0 (.310/.468/.643) vs AL avg of (.256/.357/.444) After 0-1 (.157/.229/.324) vs AL avg of (.219/.271/.361) Yes its a small sample size, but Cease is absolutely awful when he starts behind in the count and is pretty much elite after a first pitch strike. Getting ahead in the count is usually that last thing to develop for a young pitcher and hopefully this is the year he gets over that hump. Edit: I looked back through his splits and oh boy.. After 1-0 he has an xFIP of 8.70 and after 0-1 his xFIP is 3.63

This aged well

Kevin Goldstein of Fangraphs (Formerly with the Astros FO) just said in a FG chat that his biggest regret was pushing to trade Hader for Carlos Gomez and Fiers because he thought Hader was destined for the bullpen.

I think I am the president of the Benyamin Bailey fan club. Hes a beast phsyically and has the potential to be very good defensively for his size. I think his swing needs to be re-done as it resembles a golf swing, but you cant teach 6'5 and athletic with plate discipline

Ill take a solid OVER on Anderson, Robert, and TA and a healthy healthy under on Nick Madrigal.

Since Drafting Collins in 2016: White Sox Catcher Round 1-20 Draft Picks by Year + IFA signings: 2017: Round 7 (Evan Skoug 300K Bonus) + Cheap (probably 10-15k) IFA Signing (Mendoza) 2018: Round 9 (Gunnar Troutwine 10K Bonus) Round 16 (Ty Green 75K) Round 19 (Gabriel Ortiz 50K) + 300k IFA signing (Pineda) 2019: Round 8 (Ivan Gonzalez 10K Bonus) Round 11 (Victor Torres, 175K Bonus) 2020: None That's a total of 930K spent on amateur catchers since 2017. There are some very good points above about some of the development issues in the system and that could be part of the thought process in investing the position at the amateur level. Draft what you develop well and let other organizations develop your catchers.

I posted this on another thread: If he has one project this year it should be Cease. The analytics show that he has PLUS stuff but cant generate swings and misses. His awful swing/miss and chase peripherals remind me of 2018 Gio which makes Cease such a break out candidate IMO. Cease's O-Swing% (Swings on pitches outside the zone) was 26% (8th lowest among 81 pitchers with 50IP) and his swing and miss % was 9% (18th worst). He also had a first pitch strike percentage of 54% (7th worst). In 2018 Giolito's O-Swing% was 24%, his Swing and Miss % was 8%, and his first pitch strike % was 55% . In 2019 that went to 32%, 15%, and 62% respectively. Jake Arrieta, another guy who had a rough MLB start but had plus stuff had similar changes in those percentages. Both made minor adjustments on mound positioning and increased first pitch strike % significantly. Having plus stuff doesnt mean shit if youre behind in the count. His swing % was 41% which was sixth lowest which makes sense he started as many counts 1-0 as nearly any pitcher in the league. _______________________________________ The point is that I think, yes, he was lucky he didn't do worse this year, BUT, there is very real upside because if he's able to get to make some mechanical changes to improve his command

The Cubs cant afford anyone with upside that doesn't have some really significant flaws. Williams makes more sense for the Cubs on paper than a declining Jon Lester for twice the money. He has another year of Arb left if he hits and he's only 2 years removed from a solid year. In 2018 he had 170 IP with a 3.11 ERA (albeit with a 3.89 FIP and 4.54 xFIP). The floor for the Cubs is that he has made his starts for the most part for the past 4 years and can keep the Cubs from having to put one of their AAA "prospects" out there to get shelled. He doesn't have those elite spin rates or any advanced analytics that like him, which kind of makes me wonder if the Cubs saw anything in him other than cheap innings. I dont think he makes much more sense for the Sox instead of Rodon personally. The Sox are looking to win a title, not have the upside of a potentially cheap 4-5 starter in 2022.

This is one of those deals that I would like more for another team than for the Sox as Rodon could stand to benefit from a change of scenery. The plus side of this is that Rodon doesnt agree with that and seems to either think hell crack the big league rotation or he's changed his stance about coming from the pen. Maybe a new manager and pitching coach is enough of a change to spark something new with Rodon.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/white-sox According to FG 2021's payroll is 12 million lower.The only money coming off the books next year is Lynn ($9.3 M) and Luery ($3M) and a club option for Eaton ($6M w/ option for $8.5M). Gio will either get extended or get a pretty significant raise in his Arb-2 year. Lynn will either be extended and his innings won't be cheap to replace unless one of the in house solutions breaks out. If I understand it correctly, the Sox have $126.5M committed next year before any extensions are arbitration payments. The reason that number is so high is because Eloy, Robert, Yoan's salaries will about double. For comparison's sake, the Cubs have $40M committed and the Twins have $47M committed. The sox are in great shape financially, but if the payroll isn't going up, there isn't much flexibility to add money in the future as there is very little "bad" money coming off the books next year. The sox have $87M committed to the 2023 payroll as well. I doubt the Sox are going to commit much more than $10-$15M more to this years team.I can understand the Sox trying to take advantage of the pandemic free agent market and spending that money on guys like Cruz or adding another SP in a trade from a team cutting costs. I can also understand the wisdom of leaving some breathing room in your budget to better access what your needs really are. If you have a pleasant surprise breakout player (Lopez, Cease, Collins, etc.) you may be able to take a bigger swing at an elite player instead of parsing the money out for a 5th starter and a DH

To be fair to my Cubs, Miami has five starters with an ERA+ over 124. Also, if it weren't a shortened season the Cubs would've finished 5 games out of the wildcard. I can only imagine what wouldve happened if the Cubs had to face a Chapman-less A's offense though ?

I completely get why Two-Tommy Tallion is not the guy to trade Bailey and Jose Rodriguez for but trading the high-upside high-risk 23 or 24 ETA guys for a starter is what championship teams tend to do.

I noticed this too when I was putting together the numbers and didn't have a great answer for it, other than the differences in the various swing %s and batted ball outcomes is pretty large. And Kuechel's soft contact rate was 18.7% (25th/81) and hard contact rate was 25% (7th/81) while Cease's soft contact rate of 11% (79st/81) and hard contact rate of 36.3% was (62nd/81). Throwing first pitch strikes will help, but there's probably more to it than that

If he has one project this year it should be Cease. The analytics show that he has PLUS stuff but cant generate swings and misses. His awful swing/miss and chase peripherals remind me of 2018 Gio which makes Cease such a break out candidate IMO. Cease's O-Swing% (Swings on pitches outside the zone) was 26% (8th lowest among 81 pitchers with 50IP) and his swing and miss % was 9% (18th worst). He also had a first pitch strike percentage of 54% (7th worst). In 2018 Giolito's O-Swing% was 24%, his Swing and Miss % was 8%, and his first pitch strike % was 55% . In 2019 that went to 32%, 15%, and 62% respectively. Jake Arrieta, another guy who had a rough MLB start but had plus stuff had similar changes in those percentages. Both made minor adjustments on mound positioning and increased first pitch strike % significantly. Having plus stuff doesnt mean shit if youre behind in the count. His swing % was 41% which was sixth lowest which makes sense he started as many counts 1-0 as nearly any pitcher in the league.

The whole benefit of having a cost-controlled core of homegrown prospects and a great farm below them is that you have the financial and prospect capital to add star players while other teams are tapped out. I don't mind the Sox waiting until June or July to assess how close this team is before they push in chips more significant than Dane Dunning, but at some point you have to make some tough choices. Players don't always devleop in a straight line. Jason Heyward had a 6 WAR year at 20 and a 1 WAR year at 26. Addsion Russell was a 3.2 WAR player at 22 and is now batting .254 for the Kiwoom Heroes at 26. Between injuries or just natural regression you never know how long your window will be. If the Sox get out to a hot start and they can trade guys with a 2023 or 2024 ETA like Kelley, Thompson, or Bailey for an elite starter or even a rental like Kris Bryant if he gets back to form I would support it.

Thanks! Ive been reading for a long time, but decided to create an account as this probably the most active and informed message board for any team I have seen. Like my name suggests, I'm a cubs fan but I got addicted to the rebuild process. I remember watching minor league box scores every night for Soler, Eloy, Cease, Gleybar, Russell, Baez, Bryant, and got to see it all come to fruition in 2016. Seeing what the Sox have done has been a ton of fun for me as a distraction from the Cubs obliterating their championship window. I think Hahn is one of the best GMs in the game and love watching guys like TA, Eloy, and Robert play ball, This team is so much more likable than they were in the Drake Laroache era.

I wonder what the package would look like considering the Sox are a top heavy farm system. Maybe Thompson, Steiver, Dalquist, and Bailey for Darvish, Caratini, and Kimbrel (Plus money to at least cover that contract). I know a lot of people would balk at Kimbrel as a throw in but he put it together in Sept. last year. That would be a huge push forward in poker chips, but leaves the young core intact and doesnt touch the top five.

FWIW, he has Gavin Sheets as a 40 and Cespedes as a 35+ meaning that Cespedes would slot somewhere between him and number 32 Jake Burger in the Sox System. That just seems ridiculous to me

This is essentially the same plan Sale was on which is to put him in a high leverage relief role for his first full year. Not only does that benefit the MLB team, but hopefully challenge him a bit as hitters adjust to him. If he makes it through the year in one piece, start extending him over the off season into a starting role. There is the Aroldis Chapman plan as well, which is to concede that he's not going to be able to throw 102 MPH over 6-7 innings. Crotchet would safely be an elite closer this yea and would be able to channel his elite velocity. Slot him in that role for years to come. Another way would be to have him pitch in lower-leverage 2-3 innings bursts at the big league level. Ultimately, if he's going to start I think he needs to have a bit less violence in his motion. The risk of having him up in a low-leverage role is that it would be too tempting for TLR to misuse him. The last way would be to have him pitch 3-5 innings in AAA every six days and see exactly what you have. If he can maintain his velocity and command two times through the order then you have to at least try him as a starter next year. The advantage of AAA would be that everything would be about his development and not winning the division. He could try not throwing 102 every pitch and try and simplify his motion.