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What's awesome about Liam is that he has the mental toughness to close out games even when he doesnt have his best stuff or isnt getting results. He has a 2.4 WHIP and is 4/5 in Save situations. The Velo is still where it needs to be so I'm not worried hell get back to his usual self. Kimbrel's fastball is down a MPH since last year (1.4 MPH since 2020) which makes me a bit less confident that he will outperform his metrics this year

I said this on the other threat regarding Vaughn but I'll say it again here. The Sox should not trade Vaughn unless the return is absolutely silly (something like Montas + Murphy + Pache) despite the obvious need for pitching. Montgomery or Kath? Sure. Those guys are in the next wave and the Sox are in a title window. Jose Rodriguez , Sheets, or Burger? Fine. They'll all likely be solid big leaguers but wont be part of the "core". This would very much be like trading Eloy for Quintana. If you're going to trade a future star like Vaughn it should be for a Scherzer type player. "Cost-Controlled" pitchers are somewhat overrated in my opinion. You can easily lose an entire "cost-controlled" year to TJ and unlike hitters, the decline of pitchers tends to be much steeper than hitters. That isn't to say that cost-controlled pitching isn't extremely important/valuable, but the price to acquire it makes it a huge gamble. I would much rather see what the Sox have with Cueto and let Lopez cover some starts until Gio and Lynn get back. The offense is going to bail them out of enough games to make it worth just waiting and seeing how bad the need for pitching is. A package around some of the lesser prospects should help get a guy that can tread water in the meantime should the Cueto experiment blow up. I'm all for picking up a player to keep Gio, Lynn, and Cease fresh and to keep Keuchel from reaching 160 IP. Trading Vaughn to get Montas after not even offering the QO is inexcusable. Look at what the QO is doing to Conforto's value (combined with his shoulder). Im not sure teams wouldve staked the money AND a draft pick on Rodon, but I digress. The point is that I dont think a team competing for a world championship should trade a top pick and likely franchise cornerstone for a 3 starter (albiet a very solid one). I would rather pay for a top flight rental that'll be a Game 2 starter behind Gio.

Him and Vaughn can have a group therapy session

This just absolutely sucks. I pretend to know a lot of things but won’t pretend to know whether this actually is a dislocation or something less serious. Vaughn is a guy the Sox absolutely cannot trade. If the Sox sign conforto and have to keep Vaughn in AAA for a bit to get him regular Abs before the playoffs so be it. Learning a new position (on a few weeks notice) while you’re getting your first taste of big league pitching is an impossible task. His ability to hit at/near league average while guys like Kelenic took months to adjust was impressive. He never made excuses and worked his ass off in the field to make some serious improvements throughout the year. The hitting fell off big time, but that is somewhat expected considering what he was asked to do. Watching his hitting stroke in ST made me realize that he’s so close to making the jump as a hitter. Vaughn will be a plug and play first baseman for the next decade I would bet the house on it. The exit velocity and plate discipline combo is elite. He has a ton of value as a first baseman so the outfield experiment should be over. Even as a righty first baseman I feel confident that the Vaughn is the third best player in that draft behind Rutch and Witt.

I think Villar is actually a perfect fit for the Cubs. Hoerner and Madrigal are injury prone, Simmons can’t hit, and Wisdom is prone to slumps against righties. Happ is the only other lefty in the lineup (Heyward doesn’t count) so he’ll get a lot of play. I would take the over on 400 Pas between 2B, SS, and 3B

My hope is that he’s closer to a young Hideki Matsui as opposed to Kosuke. This is the first thing I’ve been excited about Cub wise since we signed Yu Darvish. I’ve been following Japanese baseball avidly since Kosuke and have even been to two Japanese World Series. Conforto is probably a better player and the draft pick compensation isn’t a concern for a team in their window like the Sox. Conforto makes much more sense and I’m hoping the Sox get him and trade for Castillo

I'm usually less doom-and-gloom then most here (largely because I like the Sox and don't love them like you all do, but I cant really understand what Hahn is doing. I'm a little late to this discussion so I'm going to go back a bit. I didn't like the decision to not send Rodon a QO at the time and it obviously looks like a poor decision now. "Worst" case in extending the offer is that you have a guy that finished top 5 in the CY voting back for 1 year 18 million. More likely than not, he would've rejected the offer to try and get a little more security in a pitching-poor free agency. The Sox are not in a position to be turning away Comp picks at the moment. Beyond that, we have no idea how Kopech will hold up getting stretched out without a true off-season. If the money was the issue, then why choose to pick up Kimbrel's option. If the plan was to sign Kelly and Graveman then why pick up Kimbrel's contract unless you were sure he had surplus value. I hope I am wrong and that Hahn has a buyer for Kimbrel out there. The problem is that the buyer needs to come before Castellanos, Schwarber, and Conforto go off the board unless JR is willing to sign off on approaching the Tax. I'd be curious if the Sox wouldve been able to pick up Winkler on the cheap if they could pick up his contract. The Sox are still by far the best team in the ALC and it's not like the rest of the AL has gotten better. I just hope there is a Kimbrel trade / Conforto signing coming to make this make more sense

I think a decent compromise would be to allow shift changes in the 7th inning for at least this year. That way it speeds up the game while giving teams and players and off-season to see how it affects certain players performance. The exxagerated shift basically ended Mark Teixeira's career. 2003-2009 BABIP .308 2010-2016 BABIP .246 The hard contact % and spray charts were essentially unchanged. Of note for the Sox is that Grandal faced the 4th highest shift percentage (94.3%) of players with at least 200 PAs. Grandal had 16 left handed plate appearances without a shift so it's hard to know what the impact on him would be.

I figured Ramos would be around 20 considering ZiPS has him as a 3 WAR player in 2024 with 31 Homers in 530 PAs. I can't wait to see what he looks like this year when he's (hopefully) healthy. I was hoping Fangraphs would include Ramos on their "Picks to click" in 2023 list, but no such luck.

I like both of the lists posted, although I think Burger at 19 is way too low especially considering that there are 15 more DH spots to fill. I think this system is pretty top heavy with a significant drop off after around 10 or 11. I basically put them in these categories: Long-term Upside Bats: Montgomery and Kath Its way too early to make any sort of predictions for these two, but they were highly regarded picks that did nothing to dampen the excitement. An aggressive and optimistic schedule for these two would have them up in 2025, so these two will be part of the next wave assuming they arent moved in the more immediate title window Short-Term/ Decent Upside: Colas, Cespedes, Rodriguez and Ramos These four have some pretty solid upside and can possibly contribute by the end of 2023. Colas' readiness is pure guesswork at this point, but he was successful in Japan as a 20 year old which is impressive. I watched Cespedes a few times last year and thought he moved very well in the outfield. Cespedes might be a decent barometer for what we might expect from Colas after a year out of competitive baseball. Yoelquis showed impressive power and speed but the K and BB rates were less than ideal. I can only imagine hell improve after getting some reps last year. Rodriguez had a break out year last year and may been the long term answer at 2B. As said before, ZiPS LOVES Bryan Ramos. Ramos is entering his age 20 season and despite never playing above high A, ZiPS has him as a 0.8 WAR player next year which is hugely impressive. What prompts the all caps LOVES in the previous sentence is that ZiPS has him as a 2.9 WAR player in 2024. Szymborski is releasing his ZiPS top 100 prospects next week and I wouldnt be surprised to see him included considering hes projected to be a near all-star at 22. Lower Upside bats that are ready: Adolfo and Burger Neither figures to be an all-star but both could be a big factor this year. Burger is a tier above Adolfo and is more of a "prospect", but I can see either playing a role in 2022. Adolfo needs baseball to start back up more than anybody because he needs to make the most of his spring training audition. Pitchers with something to Prove: Kelley, Thompson, Dalquist These three were probably the biggest disappointments of the minor league season last year. Kelley pitched 23.2 innings last season between Kanny and ACL with a 7.61 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP. Thomspon also split time between Kanny and ACL and had a 5.99 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over 73.2 IP. The plus side with Thompson was that he had 78 Ks and that he finished the season on a strong note with 2 scoreless starts (9IP combined) to end the year. Dalquist pitched exclusively in Kanny and had a 4.99 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over 83 innings. He struck out 79 but walked a pretty disappointing 56 batters. He also only gave up 1 homer despite a relatively high fly ball rate (he had a 5.94 xFip The positive on each of these guys is that they were young for Kannapolis and that Kanny was a tire fire last year and nobody really succeeded. Theyre also all prep-guys that lost a year to COVID so it isnt too big of a surprise that they struggled. If they dont make a step forward this year, the worrying can begin. High Upside pitcher : Vera I couldn't put Vera in the same category as they guys above him, despite not taking TOO much stock in his DSL dominance last year. He's probably on the same timeline as them, but I think at this point his upside is just way more believable. He is 6'4 200 with a rocket arm, multiple quality pitches, and by all accounts a very repeatable delivery. All of that suggests that he can stay a starter and can be challenged in the next year. Despite a lack of a consensus top 100 guy (or really any top 100 guy) the Sox are not your typical 30th ranked farm. The upper levels are very weak pitching wise and the Sox are pretty tapped out on upper level hitting prospects beyond Rodriguez and Burger, but there is a good core of under 20 talent in the system. With some success in the draft and IFA market the Sox could be back in the middle of the pack sooner than later. I could see pathways for any of Montgomery, Kath, Ramos, Rodriguez, Colas, and Vera (outside chance of Cespedes) to make the top 100 in 2023. Vera and Ramos have the most helium and Kath and Montgomery have the prospect pedigree working for them. Colas and Rodriguez are guys that are probably inside most evaluator's top 150 and are a good season away from being bumped up.

Thats a W for the good guys. For those concerned, I think 5.5M a year falls into the supersub category of spending. But it's a nice chunk of change for a guy who had made 11 Million over the past 9 years in the bigs.

I think the Field of Dreams game got the home run balls

Soxtalk the only place where you get hundreds of comments in minutes complaining about signing a guy who was worth 2+ WAR last year before any financial details come out. I love this place

FWIW, 58 of his 68 (85%) homers in the last 3 years would have been out at Comerica. All of his 189 Ks last year would also play at that park. For comparison, 42 of Eloys 55 (76%) wouldve went out at that park.

well shit, I couldve saved myself some time...

Hours later and still no discussion of money. My guess would be 6/145 or so. I'm assuming Detroit had to pay a pretty steep tax to get him to play there instead of NY. I'm far more concerned about the Tigers than anyone else in the central. After they went 8-19 in April, they were 69-66. Replacing Urena with E-Rod and Goodrum with Baez is a big improvement. Who knows how ready Torkelson is, but he'll very likely be a step up over a 39-year-old Miggy. They still have plenty of room to add another few impact players and also have guys like Skubal that could break out. They have one of the best managers in the league IMO and are two years away from being done with paying Miggy 32M a year. The Tigers only have four players on the payroll for 2023 that wont be an ARB or Pre_Arb Player (Baez, E-Rod, Miggy, and Schoop). The only players entering FA that year will be Grossman, Barnhardt, and Fulmer. If they were to bring their payroll up to the Sox budget they could add another TOR starter, Impact Bat, +++. Of course, you trade the Tigers 40-man for the White Sox 40-man any day of the week. But the talent gap is tightening and TLR will have to tighten things up this year. The cakewalk may be over in the ALC

The market is definitely very unclear, but I have to think the Phillies are by far the best fit. The Kimbrel-Segura swap works out financially, but I think there are some issues for either side. If the Sox were to be seriously pursuing a Robbie Ray or and Marcus Semien they might want to find someone that will eat Kimbrel's contract and send over a modest prospect return. If Hahn got somebody to pay the entire contract and got a player like Marchin or traded him back to the Cubs for Codi Heuer, that would ultimately make the move to pick up the option worth it as you'd save the $1M buyout and get a player. I think Kimbrel's deal is right at if not over market value, but I think Hahn is an excellent seller and will be able to get surplus value. A salary floor raise the market for teams willing to take on the entire contract. If a team like the Rays had to get their salary up to say $100M in 2022, Kimbrel would be a great piece for them. That said, the Phillies could also trade Segura to open up salary for a bigger FA if that route opens up for them. If the Sox were to strike out on the big free agents, they could use Kimbrel to swap for a player like Segura that is a much better use of the $16M based on the Sox roster. This may be total bullshit, but I think some newer GM's would rather go for mid-tier relievers that they think may break out instead of putting all of the 16M eggs in the Kimbrel basket. Based only on AAV, you could probably sign Tepera and Graveman for the price of Kimbrel (while supplies last of course). A team with a deeper farm system might just decide to wait until late June to see whether they need a shut down closer and be willing to pay a premium. Old school guys like TLR love having deep bullpens with a big time closer, and fortunately for the Sox, Dombrowski is cut from the same cloth. The best version of the White Sox in 2022 does not include Kimbrel on the roster. Paying 3 players closer money is not tenable unless blowing past the Luxury Tax. I don't think they are in a position to wait to use Kimbrel as a lottery ticket for the first half of the year. Trading Kimbrel now would be trading him for maybe .50 cents on the dollar. His stock is highly volatile however, and there is some big upside come the trade deadline if he returns to form and the right teams are buying. All of this being said, I think the Phillies make a lot of sense. Their farm system is weak, so being able to get Kimbrel for either just money or Segura is a worthwhile risk provided they can make the Luxury Tax work. Dombrowski values closers and knows Kimbrel well from his time in Boston. I can also see teams that would need to make a hypothetical salary minimum being interested in Kimbrel. He would allow them to hit the minimum while their arbitration players mature and get more expensive. And lastly, I could see teams like the Cubs being interested in bringing in Kimbrel should the priority for the Sox be to open up money for a guy like Robbie Ray. The Cubs have a lot of money to spend in 2022 and may be looking for high-AAV, low year players to acquire to trade at the deadline. They would be able to feature Kimbrel in the 9th inning in an environment he succeeded in. All three of these scenarios involve the big free agents signing elsewhere and would likely take place after Dec 1. As the season gets closer, it'll be harder to use Kimbrel to fill a need and will be more likely to be a salary dump

Get good value for Kimbrel and we’re in business. That’s a very solid deal for Graveman

Great post. Not sure I agree with all the valuations, but i agree with most of the processing. As for the trades: 1. I think this is a legitimate valuation and offer and would be great for the Sox. Burger doesn’t have a spot here and Kelley and Bailey are so far away from contributing to a title run. Crochet is a tough pill to swallow but Marte is a legit star. 2. I agree with the other poster that Kimbrels value is a bit too high. We’ll see how the FA market looks for top end relievers too see how much of the salary the Sox have to eat to get a decent prospect package. 3. I think the valuation on Keuchel may be a litte high, but love the thought process. The Cards made Lester a star again after switching from the Nats D to pitching to Yadi and the Cards D. Collins is a nice sweetener to the deal but I think more money will need to be tossed in. From the Cards point of view, they can find cheaper reclamation projects in free agency. All in all I’m quibbling about a few million dollars in salary throw ins which shows how much I agree about the plan. I think the Sox messed up on the QO to Rodon and on picking up Kimbrels option. I think Rodon would have declined given the market and the Sox would get a free draft pick. If the plan is to keep Kimbrel they probably could’ve done better in free agency. If the plan is to trade him, I don’t think there is much surplus value at this point. Just my opinion

Final Stats from the Sox: The good: Caleb Freeman 9IP 7H 5BB 1ER 8K 1.00ERA 1.33 WHIP Yolbert Sanchez 41PA .387/,537/.516 with 10BBs to 2Ks The Meh: Jose Rodriguez 60 PA .232/.283/.339 with 4BBs to 7 Ks. Hes the youngest player on the devil dogs so I'm very satisfied with this showing McKinley Moore 9IP 10 H 5BB 5 ER 9K 1.66 WHIP J.B. Olson 12IP 15 H 2 BB 9ER 11K (4 Homers hurt his line) The Ugly: Yoelkis Cespedes 69 PA .190/261/.238 2BB (+4HPB) 20Ks! Cespedes had only 3 extra-base hits (all doubles). Not ideal

And that is probably true. But he instantly becomes the cubs best starter and is incredibly cheap. Love it for the cubs

Little AFL Update: Jose Rodriguez went 2 for 5 to bring his OPS up to .681. Rodriguez is just 20 years old, making him the youngest on the Devil Dogs. Im definitely impressed with this showing. Yoelqui Cespedes went 1 for 4 and has on OPS of .580. He has 1 XBH (a double) in 30 ABs. His OPS has greatly benefited from his 3 HBPs as he has zero walks to 10ks. Not ideal. Yolbert Sanches didn't play today. He's 2 for 10 in AFL play Johan Dominguez started had an impressive line of : 3IP 2H 1ER 1BB 5 Ks. His ERA is still over 11 for the AFL, but this outing was a great sign. J.B Olson struck out the only batter he faced. Olson has a 4.5 ERA in 6IP so far this fallwith 5 K's to 1 BB. He's 26 years old, but missed one season to injury and obviously lost another to COVID. McKinley Moore didn't pitch but has a 5.40 ERA in 3.1 IP. He's a true reliever that finished the year in high A as a 22 year old. Caleb Freeman didn't pitch either. He has an AFL line of : 3.2 IP 3H 1ER 4BB 2SOs. Freeman had a nice finish to the year and recorded a 2.70 ERA in AA in 14 relief appearances.

FWIW the Cubs were 42-33 on June 24 and were in first place in the NLC. Kimbrel had a save in 20 of those games and had a 0.59 ERA.

This is assuming the QO with Rodon doesn't happen which would be another 18.5M or so, which puts the payroll at 184M. In the week or so after the World Series, the Sox will have made their decisions on Hernandez, Kimbrel, and Rodon. If they keep all 3 (and Rodon stays), that's 40.5M locked in to the 2022 budget. Then we'll likely wait for the CBA to resolve before anything else happens. The Sox would probably be very financially restrained until they moved Kimbrel (if that's even the plan) anyway. After the CBA, the plan may be to try and trade Kimbrel for prospects and use that money on a solid defensive backup catcher, a Tepera-esque reliever, and maybe a flier in right. Or it may be to trade Kimbrel for prospects and keep the payroll at around 165-170M. Since it's not our money, that would suck, but may be the most realistic plan

Damned if you do, damned if you dont. I think that Rodon would likely accept the QO if offered. Maybe someone is willing to offer him 3/60 this off season (assuming the Sox havent made a similar offer). That said, if Rodon replicates this seasons results next year, he goes into free agency as a 30 year old with around 800 career innings with no draft pick compensation attached to him. Not offering the QO would mean losing a 5.0 WAR pitcher for nothing. Going for Stroman, Ray, Scherzer, etc. would be much more expensive and long term proposition. I think there are serious questions about whether the Sox can depend on Kopech to make starts in 2022 and it seems exceedingly unlikely that Crochet will be a starter. Making the wrong call on Rodon's health would be pretty catastrophic. The Sox now have some expensive players on the books in Abreu (19.6M), Lynn (18.5M), Grandal (18.2M), Keuchel (18M), Moncada (13.8M), and Hendricks (13.3M) all over the 10M threshold. The Sox also have an $16M option on Kimbrel to decide on. If the Sox pick up Kimbrel's option that puts them at $136M for Abreu, Lynn, Grandal, Keuchel, Moncada, Hendricks, Kimbrel, and Rodon. Factoring in TA (9.5M), Gio (8M give or take), Eloy (6.5M), and Robert the Sox are now at $166M. Picking up Hernandez's option, and bringing back ReyLo and Engel puts you at around $178M. The Sox would essentially have to run it back with the same squad in 2022, but would go into 2023 with Keuchel, Abreu, Rodon, and Kimbrel's money off the books. In a vacuum, I think the Rodon QO and the Kimbrel option would both be favorable for the Sox; however, selecting both would be a bold use of limited financial space in 2022. All of that being said. if the Sox believe that Rodon will be healthy in 2022, then you have to extend the QO. You simply cant get that upside for 18M, while also keeping the 2023 budget flexible.