Chisoxfn

Wow. If you are Kenny and Hahn, you can't be looking at things in a vacuum. You have to be looking at your forecasted club vs. the Jays forecasted club (as well as Baltimore and the Twins). Revere would have been a nice long-term get. I presume Jays will have given up something good to get him.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 10:53 AM) One big reason I wouldn't do a Shark for rental bat is you then are losing a decent draft pick. If the net returns gives you the rental bat plus something better than that pick, IMO, it's a no brainer. Completely agree.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 10:26 AM) It's a lower risk type of buy, which makes sense given our position in the standings Lets just say we swapped Shark to one team, Sox got Upton, and Padres get prospects. That is a loss to me. I think any chance of Sox making a deep post-season run are gone (don't think that rotation is good enough to win a post-season series) and we don't even get the comp pick long-term to help us. Chances of making playoffs might go up a bit, but thats a big if because we really have no idea what we will get out of EJ (and Rodon is still developing). We could end up with a gas can of a rotation which offsets any positives from Upton and we don't even get a comp pick for the long term. So again, I am not trading Shark for a rental unless it is Shark and prospects for a rental + better prospects.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 10:21 AM) I wonder if them trading shark and then using the return to get a bat could try for more then a 2 month rental. If it is me, I think a bat does more to help us get into the post-season then Shark, however, I think Shark is more impactful in helping us do anything in the post-season. I am for moving Shark and adding a long-term bat (if that is what it takes). I'm for moving Shark + top prospects to get someone like Puig.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 10:21 AM) Many of the buildings, including the Bird's Nest stadium, are now ghost towns. Like I said...the presentation will be awesome. I have no doubt that the actual benefits will not be awesome. That said, China has all kinds of ghost towns anyway...helps keep their economy propped.

RIP

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 10:07 AM) That's not the calculation. The calculation is: Shark > Johnson Cespedes/Upton > Avi Which of those > signs is bigger? Don't forgot the comp pick that we'd get if we just hung on to Shark. If I'm moving Shark in a deal for a bat, Its because the bat we are getting is a long-term solution or in addition to the bat, we are getting some other prospects that we like.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:57 AM) But this is the exact type of thing they're trying to decide. Do they do that or send him to Charlotte? How do they split the ABs considering that a straight platoon would mean the younger (and player hitting better this season) player spends a ton of time on the bench? Send him to Charlotte. I don't really care. I would think if we were acquiring an outfielder, we'd be looking at moving Avi anyway (potentially as part of that trade). And given LaRoche's splits, their is still at bats for Avi anyway (and injuries happen).

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:53 AM) Exactly. Something this board in general seems to have a very difficult time grasping. Not when I don't see any long-term value in Avi. I don't think Avi is a good baseball player. If you look at my history of posts, I am typically very patient with prospects, etc. What I have seen from Avi, given his defensive struggles, gives me very little faith in him ever reaching anything close to his perceived "upside". I think if this team intends to compete, it needs to add a very good outfielder. I am okay with then using Avi and LaRoche in a DH roll, with Avi giving our outfielders occasional breaks.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:39 AM) I must have missed a lot the past few days. Who did Mariners trade with? Ackley to the Yankees.

I know one thing...I am sure it will be an impressive winter olympics (and one marred with social related scandals that will come up) but the last olympics in China and the world expos their, were both massive successes in terms of the actual presentation (I am sure they were not economic booms or anything like that though).

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:29 AM) Yes, I thought you were referring to Latos v. Shark. I meant any of the three (with really the focus being on Shark vs. Wood but in reality I'm taking Shark over any of them).

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:28 AM) He has the physical tools to be an acceptable outfield defender, so I want to say he can improve. But he really seems to lack the instincts out there and if he's this bad now, I don't know why he didn't get better in his long minor league career spent solely in the outfield. I don't think the odds of him hitting well are minimal, but we might be having a vocabulary difference as to what "really hitting" is. If his defense can't improve, might be reasonable to say that he has the upside of 2.0 WAR player, which is nice to have but obviously not something you'll mortgage the franchise to develop If his defense can't improve, he'd have to be a hell of a hitter to be a 2.0 WAR player. His defense is that bad and I don't really see him improving. He gets horrible reads and is just a lousy fielder. And it is magnified more when you have a team built around pitching.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:27 AM) Latos and Shark both throw with their right hand. And Latos stuff has deteriorated significantly the past two years. Its a no brainer. Yeah, but Wood is a lefty.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan99 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:18 AM) Wood has been as good as Samardzija since getting to the majors (if not better) and Latos really isn't all that far behind. Statistically have they been similar, sure, but Shark is a different story. He's viewed in the league on another caliber. Latos was darn good and he's pitching well now, but if you asked me who I'd rather have start game 3 of the playoffs, my answer would be very easily Shark and I think every team in baseball would come to that conclusion*. * Presuming the matchup is against a team who hits lefties as good as righties.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:17 AM) What does this mean? Immediately prior to the streak? My concern Jason is that the first half of the season we had a large number of players performing well below what could be expected, based on career norms. I think over the past week, we've seen some regression to the mean. How can you forecast the remainder of the season based on data that is most likely not reliable either? My thought is you have to forecast this offense to be better than it has been. Now if you can add to that, well, I think you've got a pretty good chance at this based on the pitching staff you have assembled, that honestly, has NOT pitched over their heads at all this year. I think it goes back to how you forecasted the team based upon the changes. I defended Melky all season and Alexei as well, saying they should rebound. I feel the same way over LaRoche, but his might not be until next year as I think his performance is injury related. All that said, we burried ourselves in a hole and have existing holes. If I were to forecast this team, I'd say Saladino is due for a regression (he isn't as good as he's shown, imo) and Avi, LaRoche, and Flowers are still major holes in the lineup. Saladino is below average at 3B with Sanchez being capable of being average. That is still a lot of below average guys on my forecast and as is, I don't think our pitching staff (as good as it is) can make up for those holes down the stretch (considering who we have to leap frog). With a significant upgrade in RF, I could see it being more possible (although I still wouldn't put it probable). Bottom line, I can't get behind buying rentals when my forecast says, their is a chance if we upgrade (I call it 15%) and almost no chance if we don't. I also have to consider the moves the other teams in the race made (i.e., Toronto). I am totally on board with buying, but I am not on board with renting given my forecasted playoff odds (and I have no science behind them other then my view of our team and my view of other teams in contention).

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 08:13 AM) I do, very much. I acknowledge that there is a chance Avisail Garcia turns into a good player. But I also acknowledge that there is a chance every player in the MLB turns into a good player. It might happen, but it very much probably will not happen. If he could play defense, I'd be more patient with Avi cause I do see potential for offensive upside. I just never see him being a capable defender and thus he'd have to really really hit and the odds of that are pretty minimal.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:14 AM) Let's offer Samardzija + for Alex Wood. I think the Dodgers would consider that. I'd have rather gotten in on Olivia, haha.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan99 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:09 AM) The Dodgers also got Alex Wood in that deal. They really aren't hurting for pitching now. Are they hurting for pitching, no, but what they want is another front line guy go to with Clayton / Greinke, yes. At least that is what everyone out in Dodger nation keeps saying. Clearly they have been patient and are unwilling to give up Seager / Urias for what has been moved.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:08 AM) I disagree. A baseball season is full of streaks, and streaks can define the outcome of a season. If we're going to dismiss the 7 game streak, can we dismiss the 8 game losing streak as well? This team in particular, has been streaky. Additionally, this team has some young players on it in key roles that appear to be growing up before our eyes. Honestly, it depends more on what do you think the current state and potential of the team is for this season? Is it the team with Carlos Sanchez hitting and Alexei playing an outstanding ss? Is it the team with Saladino playing a solid 3rd base and executing at the plate? This team is not the team today that it was in the first part of the season. I firmly believe that. So let's carry out a plan with that in mind, not based on how things looked 10 days ago when all appeared to be lost. I agree with the 2nd part and I think that is why it goes back to what Kenny & Rick thought about the team (including Saladino and Sanchez) prior to the winning streak. If they thought those guys were going to be the change / spark, then great, go ahead and buy, but you also can't ignore our current position (3.5 back with multiple teams in the way, including 1 team, the Tigers, who is right their with us and selling like crazy). I will reiterate that I am okay with buying, but I am not going with buying rentals given our position. If we were the leaders or had > odds, I'd be okay with buying rentals, but in our current situation, I absolutely don't think it makes sense. If the club wants to trade for CarGo or Bruce, fine by me. If they want to give up a top 100 prospect (plus others) for Upton or Cespedes....no thank you.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:06 AM) They have to decide how to manage roster moves and playing time. It is not at all straightforward and they are right to be conflicted about it. How to manage roster moves of guys with negative WAR's? I really don't understand what their is to be conflicted about. AVI & LaRoche's combined WAR is -.3 (-.2 and -.1), respectively. I realize WAR isn't the end all be all stat, but it does magnify just how bad both players have been this season.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 09:04 AM) Unfortunately by waiting, we may have missed our chance to add meaningful prospects. Most teams that needed a rotation arm have already obtained one. I completely disagree with this right now. Shark is now the best pitcher on the market and the Angels, Yankees, and Dodgers are all sitting their needing pitching. I realize the Dodgers got Latos but what they want is a guy that can help the front of the rotation and the Giants just got Leake. Giants would probably still be interested as well and apparently Houston is still looking to buy too. Cubs have to be desperate for pitching as well (if they are going to give this thing a shot).

QUOTE (Frank_Thomas35 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 08:59 AM) If that's what teams are asking for a two month rental lets stand pat or sell. No thank you Standing pat would be awful. I think right now, the market for Shark is actually higher then at any point in the season. We have the last chip and their are still a few teams out their (vs. 1 team waiting for the last domino).

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jul 31, 2015 -> 08:04 AM) Jayson Stark ‏@jaysonst 1m1 minute ago Teams talking to #WhiteSox say they're struggling with how impact of Cespedes or Upton would impact roster. Already overloaded at OF/DH/1B IF their is truth to this, I just shake my head. Overloaded with what. Garcia sucks and LaRoche has not been productive. What overload are we talking about? An overload of crap?

Anything we give up for a rental when our backs are against the wall, is extremely risky. Belton Bill Melton was on yesterday and he had some interesting points (later on he kind of went back on them though, but I'll ignore that for the purpose of this post). Bottom line, he said that he hopes Kenny and Rick execute on whatever they planned to do prior to the streak happening. If they thought they had the goods to win, then do it, if not, then do that, but you shouldn't necessarily let 1.5 weeks of play impact your decisions for the rest of the season. I am actually giving Bill Melton more credit cause he didn't quite say it like that, but it was his point. It is also why I believe it is imperative for the club, if it is going to buy, to buy someone who will be here for the long haul (unless the rental is so cheap it is absurd not to do it, such as Beck for Cespedes or something like that). We should be taking a quasi Ranger mentality (or almost like a 2004 mentality when we acquired Contreras) and while the move might help us contend this year, the goal is for this to make us a better team in 2016 & 2017. With that in mind, when it comes to Shark, Hahn and Kenny have a ton of leverage right now. Dodgers still need that upgrade (and the list of pitchers like Shark is small and some rivals, including the Giants have upgraded). Angels have to also be interested in another pitcher (especially given the moves the Astros just made) and I presume the Yanks would be listening as well. I'm not saying I'm ready to sell as I want to buy and have said I want to buy (but potentially do a controlled sell as well). Given where the market is, if the Sox get the right offer, I don't blame them for selling Shark while still buying a bat elsewhere. I also am okay with them buying a bat and going for this thing, but please, please, do not buy a rental or make a bunch of moves ignoring our future. And also, please do not stand pat. This team, without another bat, has very low odds at fending things off, and at that point, given the leverage I presume we have with Shark, we'd be better off moving Shark, getting some talent who could help us in 2016 & 2017, while giving Erik Johnson and maybe even Montas some time in the bigs to see what we have in them. We can always then make another push to sign Shark in the off-season (if that is the move we want to make).