Chisoxfn

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 12:54 AM) If you're not going to make the playoffs, might as well aim for the highest pick possible. One of the worst positions that a franchise could operate in professional sports is the middle, you're missing out on the high end talent and you're not competing for a championship. So again, if you’re not going to the playoffs get the highest pick possible. In other sports I'd say yes, in baseball, I disagree. The best organizations consistently win and find talent (both through FA and the Draft) and top draft position has the lowest correlation in baseball then any other sport. This isn't like the NBA where most of the superstars were top picks vs. MLB where lots of superstars aren't top picks. That said, if we are going to be bad and developing, I am okay getting top pick as long our young talent is improving, etc. I am not okay with guys just playing bad. It is more important for pieces to make progress and help us get wins and slowly get better. Baseball is not the sport you go from worst to first very often. Usually it takes time to build and get the pieces put together and ready.

I am pretty much in Matt's camp. Unless someone is going to acquire Ramirez because they are going to give us some form of chip that is worth while, then I think we are best suited to keep him and see if he improves. If he plays the 2nd half of the year like his past, you then have the option on a guy to keep. If he doesn't, he's gone anyway. Unless of course org sees value in giving other guys opportunity (even if they really aren't deserving) and understand that our defense will be far worse (which can hurt young pitchers development as well). I think our upside is you see if its just a bad couple months for Alexei and hope that he gets on a hot streak and all of a sudden at the end of July someone is saying, yep, that is Alexei. We need that guy, he's played the past month like the Alexei of old and now he has some value (obviously not top 100 value...which he probably had this time last year...but to the point where the benefit from trading him is at least worth it vs. just dumping him because). We still need to find a SS next year and Alexei on a cheaper deal (not picking up the option but signing him for less) might be the best option. Seems like the defensive issues are mental vs. physical and it might be those struggles are then carrying to the plate as well.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 09:26 AM) Unfortunately, doing that would have left the white sox such a gaping hole at an important position that making that move would be tantamount to calling 2015 a rebuilding year. In that case it would have made no sense to do things like sign players who received qualifying options. Oops. Depends. Ramirez has significant value so you could have traded him near the deadline and then tried to add someone like Jimmy Rollins. Note, I am not saying Jimmy Rollins is doing all that great, just using an example of him who would have been a fine replacement for ramirez as a temporary stop-gap (if you were trying to contend).

Right now, I think the best thing for the Sox is to give AR a few days off, then see if that helps clear his mind and hopefully you get him playing like he used to. Its really unfortunate cause we would have gotten something pretty nice for him a year ago or even at the deadline, now less likely we get a whole lot for him. Come on AR, hit, hit hit. That also means, if you plan on contending next year and you can't get a lot of value for him (and you don't have anyone you plan on giving those at bats too, you might not be better off moving him and might actually be better off taking his option...presuming front office has confidence in him rebounding). You could also just move him, take what you want, and use it to give both Sanchez and Micah plenty of at bats (see if Sanchez can play SS and how he can hit over course of a full season and get Johnson major league coaching at 2B and also time to continue to develop his bat). If you do that, by the end of the year, we should have a much better idea regarding Sanchez / Johnson's future.

I wanted the point guard. Was stoked Jones was their but looked like everyone thinks pretty highly of Portis so excited to see what he can do. Should have some great guys to learn from.

Wow, Lakers make the right move. Should set-up nicely for them. I still like Randle's upside and now you have a guy who should be playmaking point guard. I think they'll get one of Love / Aldridge / Gasol and then you pair that with Kobe and it is a lot better.

KC indicating this will be the finalized coaching staff. Myers is officially coming back to Chicago. IIRC, Drose really liked Pete. Fred Hoiberg - head coach Jim Boylen - associate head coach Pete Myers - assistant coach Mike Wilhelm - assistant coach Ed Pinckney - assistant coach Charlie Henry - video coordinator

All I know is if I were the Lakers, I'm taking Russell all day. Looks like he has potential to be a superstar. All this said, Okafor is getting bashed despite having a damn good low post game and just fantastic footwork.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 25, 2015 -> 10:25 AM) The easiest way to look at this is "Total U.S. Healthcare spending" because that is a readily-tracked value and it reflects both contributions. The results as of last year continue to say "health care costs growing at a much slower rate than they were prior to passage of the PPACA. Supporting link. Forbes has a writer who has argued there are additional costs in the system here but those costs in the numbers given actually have not gone up at all over the time period he writes, which would lower that growth rate even more. Basically, whatever portions you count...year over year cost growth is at the lowest level in decades. Is that number reflective of what the consumer is paying vs. costs from provider. Relevant data point but difference between what impacts the everyday people (albeit interrelated since the insurance companies aren't in the business of eating costs) and what impacts potential bottom line of insurance companies.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 25, 2015 -> 10:13 AM) Exactly. We developed him effectively up to the AAA level and then a better organization was able to have him take bigger steps on offense. I don't know if I can give the A's credit to help him take bigger steps on offense. He spent all of an off-season with the A's. I think in this case, the credit belongs to Semien (Sox should also get credit cause he was a generally good find and is a very solid baseball player). He's in way over his head at SS though.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jun 25, 2015 -> 08:43 AM) I wish Obama would quit lying how everyone is saving money because of Obamacare he said it again today. I do not know anyone who's deductible that is not thousands of dollars more. Higher premiums and less coverage is all Obamacare has done to the working class. Only people happy about this is the Medicaid crowd. I will be the first person to tell anyone about how my costs have gone up across the board (not just higher premiums but less coverage along with those higher premiums). And before Balta answers, in my exact situation it has nothing with my employer covering less. They cover the same % split and haven't changed that during this window. However, the real comparison would be on how the costs were increasing pre Obama Care vs. Post Obamacare and you have to look at it from multiple perspectives...not just premium costs but total out of pocket costs (as those would be reflective of potential lower benefits that you are receiving). I am sure the data is out there but as a stat / analytic guy (I live in that world pretty much all day), the data I've typically seen around just has a lot of holes in the assumptions, etc, that I question the overall validity. By the way, despite being a republican, I do think their were certain things about Obamacare that were absolutely fantastic and necessary. Healthcare is something everyone should have the right to have and people shouldn't not be able to get healthcare because of past health issues (many of which were completely and utterly out of their control).

If you were going to trade for Guerrero, you'd have to see if you could work an agreement where he is compensated or you tear up that contract and negotiate a new deal. Otherwise, you don't make the move. I would be totally on board to get Alex if we knew we could have him under our control for a number of years.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jun 24, 2015 -> 02:43 PM) Wow. This is why we knew after six weeks of baseball that this team was crap and needed to start trading its pieces immediately. You can't win with defense like this. Except it isn't six weeks. It is an on-going trend with 2 full years of data (2013 & 2014). By the way, I will be the first to admit I'm not a defensive metric expert so I don't know whether these are viewed as the best defensive metrics or not, but my eyes have long said we stunk and the stats back it up so while I don't know how accurate those runs saved (or in our case, given up) are, but clearly we are an awful defensive team anyway you spin it. Even by the most basic metrics, such as errors as a percentage of put outs or balls in play, we suck.

Rank dead last in baseball per fangraphs (Padres are team ahead of us). Over the past 3 years, we rank 3rd from the end having given up an etxra 102 runs vs. a league average defense. The difference between the Sox defense during that span and the Royals defense is 301 runs. Yes, i said that right, 301 runs. Absolutely appalling. Consistent though cause we have ranked in bottom 3 spots past 2 seasons and now own the bottom spot this year. Tribe and Astros are only teams that rank worse. How the front office could have built a team around pitching when the defensive metrics were that bad (and completely ignore defense) is just awful. Things have to change and since we know they won't be fired for the mess, a tight leash should be placed on them and expectations should be set by JR that things will change and need to change. I can live with offensive struggles or other things, but to ignore defense for 2 separate off-seasons while building a team around pitching, well, its just inexcusable.

Just pathetic. Another 3 errors. Awful. And errors don't even say the least. We also have crappy range across the field. Just disgusting.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 04:23 PM) Boston will be a seller and Buchholz and Kelly will be available. Why would Boston not pick up Clay's option for 2015 & 2016 (@ 13M each). Would think Boston isn't going to go full rebuild. Kelly might be available but he has an ERA over 5 and a WHIP of 1.43 and an ERA+ of 75. Only thing that looks decent is his FIP of 4.02. So with that in mind, if I'm Boston, why exactly am I selling him at his low point (he is under team control through 2019)?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 02:30 PM) Oh, Oh, don't forget how badly signing them in FA has worked! Basically I think we just need to import all our position players from Cuba. It's the only thing that works! Fixed for you. You might be onto something...just sign international FA's, haha.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 02:20 PM) With this organization that is a recipe for disaster. No. I have full faith in them drafting a quality pitcher in the comp round (plenty of talent still available at that point). If we were drafting a position pitcher, probably would have that issue, but we missed the mark with Avisail (vs. Iglesias...whom would be just what the Dr. ordered in hindsight) and Davidson so I don't know if trading works better either.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 02:15 PM) And that's why I said that if you're insisting on a guy who's MLB ready right now...that's going to make that very tough. If you don't get a guy MLB ready or close, then you might just be better off with the comp pick and going with your own scouting. I might be overvaluing Shark, you might be undervaluing him. Reality is probably somewhere in between you and I's posts but if you aren't getting a top 100 prospect and another guy who you like quite a bit (at a minimum), you probably shouldn't make the trade. On the flip side, if you turn it into a 3 team deal, you could find a team willing to give us a young position player and them getting prospects from the contender. Plenty of ways to structure this thing but I think if Sox are smart, they move Shark early while others are waiting to get in. Of course, it could back fire if they don't properly market his availability.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 02:07 PM) Samardzija definitely is not in the same pool as Cole Hamels for guys teams are looking at to put them over the top given that some teams definitely will not be able to absorb Hamels's deal...but Jeff Samardzija is not even the best right handed starter nearing free agency on the trade market, that's Cueto. So...Shark wasn't the best pitcher on the market last year either. That feat belonged to Price and Lester. Didn't mean the A's didn't get a lot for Shark. Their are a heck of a lot of teams that could be buyers and not many that are sellers. In fact, Sox might be one of the only teams ready to move guys (who have value) right now, which could actually put them in a better position to maximize value (as teams might want to pounce earlier vs. waiting a bit longer till other "sellers" emerge). And w/Cueto and Shark, even small market teams can compete. You talk about a guy like Hamels and well...not many teams are going to get involved in that bidding (not with the money he is owed). Outside of who we are talking about (or other potential Sox starters), their isn't a whole lot of names out their right now and their are a lot of teams that would be interested in buying.

I'd love if we could move up and get Tyus Jones (probably completely unrealistic that he falls to us).

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 02:00 PM) Jake Peavy was a guy under team control for 1.5 years, had an excellent 2013, and was viewed as a pretty solid bargain. That's why he was thought to be our asset on the trade market that year. When we got him to sign that contract people were excited because they thought he was helping us out. I agree he was thought to be our asset, but that was a buyer's deadline from what I remember vs. this being viewed as a sellers deadline. I also think more teams would rather take Shark vs. the alternative and one thing to remember, sometimes teams prefer getting the guy with the expiring deal vs. another deal. During the deadline, one of the things we heard was a lot of teams shied away from Peavy because they weren't interested in having him come back. Could all have been posturing and by no scenario was I saying his contract was an albatross, it wasn't. Relatively speaking, he was paid fairly (you didn't have some huge salary arbitrage one way or the other).

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 01:58 PM) I want to stress more here...I did not say that. I was replying to a specific note saying that teams might think some of his struggling was due to the poor team around him...with the important point that those same teams will say "but things he can control, like striking guys out and getting the ball weakly hit, are down too". While his strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is slightly up (both are still good numbers), he's also giving up a lot more hits (with a relatively constant HR rate). Didn't look into his line driver rate but I'd argue some of his current results are probably driven by our defense (which sucks) as well as potentially a little negative luck in their.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 01:54 PM) Oh come on, you're going to say the phrase "Not a valid comp in this equation" and then in the same breath you immediately cite 2 pitchers who were under team control for 1.5 years when they were traded as comparison for a guy who's a free agent this fall? At least they had comparable WAR's and it wasn't as if Peavy's contract was a "bargain" at the time. Throwing a negative WAR player who had no long-term track record of success was awful. I just picked two recent Sox pitchers who were traded and their relative WAR's.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Jun 23, 2015 -> 01:52 PM) Just looking at last year's deadline, Andrew Miller, a relief pitcher with 1.3 WAR at the time of the trade, returned Eduardo Rodriguez, a top-25 prospect on at least one list who is now doing well in the majors. Martin Prado had 0.9 WAR when he was traded for Peter O'Brien, a catching prospect who will change positions but has plus power. I'm not saying we're going to turn around the team based on who we get for Samardzija, but Balta was acting like 3 win players aren't worth anything. His comp was also a negative win player. 3 win players are valuable. And in Shark's case, he's also coming off a 4.2 WAR season and posted 2.9 WAR's in the two seasons prior to that. He also pitched very well down the stretch for Oakland (in the thick of a playoff race, which should also help).